Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll of federal voting intention shows no change on Labor’s 57.5-42.5 two-party lead in the previous survey. Both parties are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote since the previous face-to-face poll, Labor to 46 per cent and the Coalition to 36 per cent. Morgan also provides preferred leader ratings which show a substantial improvement for Kevin Rudd since the survey conducted three weeks ago, immediately after Malcolm Turnbull became Liberal leader. Rudd is up from 55 per cent to 62.5 per cent, while Turnbull is down from 30 per cent to 24 percent.
Other news:
• The Western Australian Liberal Party is apparently set to extend its dismal record on female representation following Deidre Willmott’s withdrawal from the race to fill the retiring Chris Ellison’s Senate vacancy. Willmott stood aside as candidate for Cottesloe before the state election to allow Colin Barnett to go back on his retirement plans and assume the party leadership. The party thus emerged from the election with two women in the lower house out of 24, both back-benchers in marginal seats. The West Australian (which made three passing references to the state of the Liberals’ female representation during the state election campaign, two of them favourable) reported earlier this week that Willmott withdrew from the Senate race after “internal discontent with her move surfaced following the Liberal Party’s State council meeting”. This prompted Willmott to say she believed it would be “difficult to get the level of support required”. Today’s Financial Review reports that the race is now between two state party office holders, senior vice-president Anthony Jarvis and treasurer Dean Smith, with the former starting favourite.
• Frequent Poll Bludger commenter and occasional Greens candidate Ben Raue has started an excellent new psephological blog called The Tally Room.
“Now 62.5% (up 7.5% in 3 weeks) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 24% (down 6% in 3 weeks) prefer Malcolm Turnbull”
Hahahaha.
Good results for Rudd and Labor. Do I expect these to be reported? No.
I’m just being pedantic here but the Coalition isn’t down 0.5 per cent, they’re unchanged.
“L-NP support 36% (unchanged)”
As I noted on the other thread quite clearly people are linking Australia’s present and future problems with the international scene. And Rudd’s handling of things seems to have support with his PPM rating.
Their Phone Poll supports the F2F
[These Morgan Poll figures are confirmed by a Morgan telephone poll conducted October 15/16 which showed the ALP leading the L-NP two-party preferred 57% cf. 43%.]
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence – 89.5 (down 4.7 points in a week);
Now 49% of Australians expect “bad times” over next 12 months
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/804/
Oz, I was comparing it to the previous face-to-face poll – I’ve made this clearer. I’ve also added a few lines on the leadership preference figure, which I hadn’t originally noticed.
Roy Morgan says:
[Kevin Rudd needs to provide real leadership or risk leading a one-term Government]
Here we go again with a repetition of the Liberal Party’s “one-term government” line that was conceived to:
a) give some illusion of hope to demoralised Liberal followers that the natural order of things – Liberals in government, of course – will be restored as soon as the next election allows
2) undermine the government.
Real leadership, Roy? What’s he been doing during this crisis? Pretend leadership? Play-acting? An illegitimate leader, is that it, since only Liberals are the legitimate party of government?
Interesting that other Liberal fans such as Janet Albrechtsen have been congratulating Mr Rudd on “real leadership” in this crisis:
[it is a sign that the Rudd Government is economically responsible in direct contrast to the Liberal Party populists who have ignored the international reality that banks are falling over]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/%20courageous_rudd_overcomes_history_and_populism
Why don’t pollsters stick to their business… which is to conduct polls? If commentators don’t conduct their own polling and then comment on it I don’t know why pollsters comment on polls they conduct.
I suppose it’s really the only way Morgan can hope to sell his polls. The insinuation that “Kevin Rudd needs to provide real leadership or risk leading a one-term Government” implies that he is not already providing ‘real leadership’. Whilst that may be true, it’s certainly not the place of pollsters to be entering political debate in that way if they seek to be taken seriously.
Janet Albrechtson, of course, wouldn’t think Turnbull would even come close to matching her hero, Mr Howard.
[Roy Morgan says: Kevin Rudd needs to provide real leadership or risk leading a one-term Government]
Just the usual dribble from Roy. I reckon it’s aimed at us just to rile us up. Let’s face it, nobody else seems to pay attention to his polls unless they move to the Libs 🙂
Of course, all governments risk being one-term governments if they don’t provide leadership, among other things. That’s so obviously true it hardly needs saying. But this trope only seems to get run out for Rudd. I don’t recall anyone in the media saying it about Howard in 1997. In fact Rudd IS providing excellent leadership in the face of unprecedented challenges, the electorate accepts that he is doing so, and the polls are reflecting that. Gary Morgan is a well-known idiot so his opinions can be ignored.
[this trope only seems to get run out for Rudd. I don’t recall anyone in the media saying it about Howard in 1997]
That’s probably because it is a line that was only conceived by some very clever Liberal in 2007, in the wake of an election loss that they took harder than any other since perhaps Whitlam displaced the Liberals in 1972.
‘Took’ implies that it has been taken. They still haven’t recognised they lost the election yet.
You’re right Itep. We presume Morgan’s polls have legitimacy, but his comments are inane. He would be better to just give us the facts and leave the comment to those who might be more objective. He seems to have been tutoured in the Shanahan school of squeezing out every drop of positive data for the Coalition, and even in the face of soaring approval of Kevin Rudd put
[The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 6.5 points at 122.5 points. Australia is “heading in the right direction” according to 52% (up 6%) of Australians, compared to 29.5% (down 0.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”]
Even in these hard times, “heading in the right direction” has improved. Rudd must be doing something right.
[Even in these hard times, “heading in the right direction” has improved. Rudd must be doing something right.]
Not according to Morgan lol
Sorry, hit the ‘Post Comment’ button accidently.
You’re right Itep. We presume Morgan’s polls have legitimacy, but his comments are inane. He would be better to just give us the facts and leave the comment to those who might be more objective. He seems to have been tutoured in the Shanahan school of squeezing out every drop of positive data for the Coalition, and even in the face of soaring approval of Kevin Rudd puts a negative spin on it.
This poll is a good one for Labor and Rudd, and for the Coalition the expected boost in Turnbull’s approval will be pleasing. But the widening of the preferred PM gap from 25 to 38.5 points in Rudd’s favour is hardly a great vote of confidence in Turnbull.
It’s curious that in the current version of Morgan’s comments, the relevant sentence about Rudd’s leadership now reads “The drop in the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating to a 17-year low of 89.5 is a signal to Kevin Rudd that he must provide strong leadership and implement proactive policies to prevent Australia sliding into a recession.” No mention of his being a one-termer.
Thanks for the link William.
I’m gonna be campaigning in Canberra tomorrow morning and scrutineering in Campbell in the evening, I’ll try and post some comments on both my blog and here as the evening goes on.
[Gary Morgan is a well-known idiot……]
Somethings have just gotta make you chuckle.
I wonder how Murdoch would view Turnbull given Turnbull’s last dealings with Packer.
[MALCOLM Turnbull was the “deep throat” who secretly handed over vital information that forced Kerry Packer to pull out of his bid for the Fairfax media group in 1991, the ABC’s Four Corners reveals tonight.
Mr Turnbull, who had been in the consortium seeking the company but fell out with others including Mr Packer, gave Australian Broadcasting Tribunal chairman Peter Westerway notes that another key player, Trevor Kennedy, had made.]
Not that I disagree with the outcome of all that.
[These Morgan Poll figures are confirmed by a Morgan telephone poll conducted October 15/16 which showed the ALP leading the L-NP two-party preferred 57% cf. 43%. ]
Cant see any details of the phone poll yet.
It is interesting to note that even if the media has a favourable Coalition bias, it isn’t being reflected in the actual polling.
Pensioners aside, most people I know seem to be OK about how the government is operating and the polls are holding up remarkably well.
Sondeo @18, I do a little charity work which puts me in contact with some local pensioners, and let me reassure you the Rudd Govt is considered the ants pants just at the moment.
Micahel Cusack, you’re basing your understanding on the popularity of the Government on ‘local pensioners’? Quite scientific I must say.
My sources tell me that the tone of pensioners’ phone calls to Labor MPs’ offices has gone from very grumpy to ecstatic. This is a big payout just before Xmas.
One-term government?
Like the Howard government would have been in almost any other electoral system, with only 49.02 percent of the two-party vote in 1998?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/17/2394363.htm?section=justin
“Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says the Government needs to do more to help small business cope with the effects of the global financial crisis.”
Completely shallow, but clever politics I think. He doesn’t actually have to do anything but say “Hey Government, you left out these small business owners” and small business owners will pick up the baton and run with it.
I’m pretty over the fact that small business owners get used as an excuse in absolutely every policy area. “We can’t have more employee-friendly IR laws, think about small business!” “We can’t have an ETS, think about small business!”.
Probably the ABC has sent Turnbull a questionaire
“Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says the Government needs to do more to help:
small business
pensioners
carers
veterans
single mothers
married couples
Liberal party
National party
……………..cope with the effects of the global financial crisis.”
Heh, was a piece on the Tele today by some women complaining that 1/4 of Australians missed out on $10.4 billion package, and then went on to deride child-care rebates because they were “middle-class welfare”.
I reckon it’s all a sick joke and the journo’s at that paper crack up every day about the fact that they’re the number one paper in the Sydney.
“Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says the Government needs to do more to help small business cope with the effects of the global financial crisis.”
Surely some small buisness owners have kids ($1000 bonus each) earn less than $70000sn or $140000md so will save on medicare, and no doubt a lot of them have mortgages so will get relief with the rate cuts?
@25
I wonder if she complained when 90% of Australians were worse off under Howard (cost of living to income ratio) and his own enormous brand of middle class welfare?
Oh, that’s right, the Liberal Party can do no wrong and everything is Labor’s fault huh?
ANZ has just cut its mortgage rates by a further 25 bp. How long before the Rainmaker claims credit for it do you think?
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24510954-31037,00.html
I think its “clear” that if Turnbull calls on Rudd to improve the economy then, if the economy improves, the leader of the opposition should obviously get teh credit.
Good point, Socrates.
[Mr Turnbull has today been visiting restaurants and retail stores in Crows Nest, on Sydney’s north shore, to gauge sentiment among small business owners.]
How much of the 10 billion will be spent is restaurants and retail stores? That is the whole point Turnbull, people spend money, much of it will be spent in small businesses, these businesses will spend it in other small businesses and some of these business owners may eventually go to a restaurant.
10 news showed Turnbull and Hocking in a handbag shop.
vera
That is funny, my mum said she would use some of her “Chrissy Present” to buy a nice handbag, honestly. Maybe Malcolm B. could pick one for her. 🙂
It concerns me that there is nothing in the governments “rescue” package that helps millionaire ex-merchant bankers. This will be an economic disaster, both for the millionaires concerned, and Aston Martin dealers all over Australia!!! Shame, Rudd, shame.
Adam in Canberra @ 21 –
My sources tell me that the tone of pensioners’ phone calls to Labor MPs’ offices has gone from very grumpy to ecstatic. This is a big payout just before Xmas.
Pensions have already increased by $27/week (single rate) at a cost of $7.5 billion, which would be a bigger annual increase than they’ve seen for a very long time. So why were they still grumpy before the latest announcement? Ingratitude/greed, or a lack of awareness?
No doubt both, but, IMO, one failing of this government is that they don’t promote what they’ve done. I’m not suggesting huge, wasteful Howardista ad campaigns, just members spruiking achievements at every opportunity. Particularly, shoving the facts down journalists throats in response to the non stop gotcha questions instead of going defensive.
That “Could you live on the pension?” being a prime example. How much better would the response have been if the answer was along the lines of “No, not at my state of life with young kids/mortgage/the demands of the job. Pensioners have not been ignored. Single pensioners are now $27/week better off with increases to X, Y, Z and more will be done in the next budget..blah, blah”
MayoFeral
The pension issue is now dead, that is why Malcolm has switched to Small Business. The Libs. especially Malcolm are trying to shore up their base.
If the Polls stay the same or worsen Turnbull knows there are plenty with a dagger in their knapsack just waiting to et tu brute him. 🙂
Especially with reports to today that the caucus got pretty violent over a split about gay rights.
One Liberal source said “Malcolm only cares about how things play out in Wentworth”.
Fair enough. Wentworth has the highest proportion of gay’s in the country.
cue Malcolm on ABC TV News spruiking the pain of small business, plus the consumer confidence stuff. Fair dinkum.
“The Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends has forecast that economic growth will slow to just under 2 per cent by March and unemployment will rise to 4.8 per cent by the middle of next year. ”
Not Flash but better than most.
“In a sign that the global credit crunch is beginning to ease, one of the country’s major banks has cut its standard variable rate by a quarter of a percentage point without any prompting from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
In a surprise move late in the day, the ANZ bank cut its standard variable rate to 8.32 per cent, saying it was delivering on a promise to pass on interest rate cuts as global market conditions eased.”
So banks seem to be getting cheaper finance.
Poor Malcolm and Julie, the economy seems to be the thing preventing Rudd from being a one term Govt.. I can see the election ads “We steered Australia though the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression” . 😉
Like Sondeo @ 18, I’m amused that despite the negative carping of much of the media (and have a look at today’s offering at The Political Sword), them polls just don’t budge very much.
Wow, I have just been polled by ACNielsen for the first time ever:
Q. If election were to be held tomorrow which party would you vote for? A. Labor by a mile.
Q. Preferred PM Rudd or Turnbull? A. (Nearly dropped the phone) No contest, Rudd.
Q. How much do you approve of Rudd handling financial crisis? A.Strongly approve.
Q. How much do you approve of the $10.4 billion package? A. Strongly approve.
Q. What is your approval rating of Rudd? A.Potentially the best PM I have eever seen. Strongly approve.
Q. What is your approval rating of Turnbull? A. He is just an out and out genius. Disapprove.
Potentially the best PM you’ve ever seen after less than a year? Ok then…
Yes Itep.
Fair go, Itep,. I think it’s got to count for something that the PM can reassure the 100 business leaders in Sydney today that he’s been on the phone to the Chinese leaders (actually being able to speak to them, pissy little country that we are, let alone in their own language; mind you, terrible affrontary), might count for something in terms of leadership, don’t you think?
But, but, but what about small business Harry!
ANZ dropping their rate like this will make it the governments actions in backing the banks play really well out in mortgage land. Can now be said that with some actual backing that the govt guarantees on interbank lending are actually having a desirable effect in the real economy and promoting competition.
Turnbull and Bishop are going to be pushing it uphill big time if things go relatively well here and IF it becomes obvious over the next year to 18 months that our economy is surviving better than those overseas. There is likely to be a rise in unemployment (lots of Uni jobs and Car Industry workers getting cut at the moment), but the people who still have jobs (and those looking for one) will be better off than they would have been under Work Choices.
I can well imagine if Howard was still in power that part of his response would have been “further necessary Industrial Relations reform”, and Bishop is thoroughly tarred with the WC brush.
I love the comment from Ruwake @ 39, “We steered Australia though the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression”
I can imagine claims from some quarters of hubris if that gets rolled out next campaign, but if they can justify it then, it will be priceless to see the Libs supposed economic management advantage go down the tube!!
Dario, the Rainmaker knows they’re in pain, so that’s all right then. He’s got these magical powers and their pain will be soothed and eased and cured by the Rainmaker.
The Rainmaker-pouring with empathy, for everyone.
“We steered Australia through the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression” Yes, Labor have got to use that.
Can you imagine Howard right now if he had of won? Work Choices is necessary for our economy in difficult economic times. And the MSM supplying him with as much oxygen as he wanted.
What about Coconut’s claims that interest rates will always be lower under a liberal government? The way things are going, Labor will be a shoo-in in 2013 as well as 2010. LOL Cossie had better start planning for 2016.
sondeo, the Rainmaker just can’t do empathy like Brendon. Can’t see him sitting in the gutter with someone at 3 am. As for a trip with a truckie, ptssh, and bugger it if they’re a small business.