Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll of federal voting intention shows no change on Labor’s 57.5-42.5 two-party lead in the previous survey. Both parties are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote since the previous face-to-face poll, Labor to 46 per cent and the Coalition to 36 per cent. Morgan also provides preferred leader ratings which show a substantial improvement for Kevin Rudd since the survey conducted three weeks ago, immediately after Malcolm Turnbull became Liberal leader. Rudd is up from 55 per cent to 62.5 per cent, while Turnbull is down from 30 per cent to 24 percent.

Other news:

• The Western Australian Liberal Party is apparently set to extend its dismal record on female representation following Deidre Willmott’s withdrawal from the race to fill the retiring Chris Ellison’s Senate vacancy. Willmott stood aside as candidate for Cottesloe before the state election to allow Colin Barnett to go back on his retirement plans and assume the party leadership. The party thus emerged from the election with two women in the lower house out of 24, both back-benchers in marginal seats. The West Australian (which made three passing references to the state of the Liberals’ female representation during the state election campaign, two of them favourable) reported earlier this week that Willmott withdrew from the Senate race after “internal discontent with her move surfaced following the Liberal Party’s State council meeting”. This prompted Willmott to say she believed it would be “difficult to get the level of support required”. Today’s Financial Review reports that the race is now between two state party office holders, senior vice-president Anthony Jarvis and treasurer Dean Smith, with the former starting favourite.

• Frequent Poll Bludger commenter and occasional Greens candidate Ben Raue has started an excellent new psephological blog called The Tally Room.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

241 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. The genious Costello steered the economy through the Dot-Com Bubble, the Asian Crisis and SARS and told us so ad nauseam. What he actually did is probably “In the Book” .

    His remedy to our current situation? “Cut interest rates”. Sorry Peter that is the “independent Reserve Banks” job, you know the mob you boast about making truely rooly independent, so The Member for Higgins is saying that the role of Govt. is?

    Maybe Swing in a hammock and pray is his real philosophy? 😛

  2. Although I’m sure there was some element of truth to the story if you read it it looks like a lazy piece of work. Some journalist just trawled through Hansard and picked a few provocative quotes and spliced them together and then spiced it up with leadership/party tensions.

    The whole thing is made sillier by the fact that the position the party currently has was decided on when Nelson was leader and hasn’t changed one bit since then.

  3. Had to smile, during SBS news coverage of Kev’s meeting with business leaders. They showed them eating lunch and said , no flash 3 course meals which business bosses would be used to, lunch with PM was sandwiches and orange juice. Then they showed Rudd scoffing down a sanga with a voice over saying something like, he had no time to waste with lunch, more important things to be getting on with.

    meeting seems to have gone down well
    “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s reassuring promise that Australia will pull through the global economic crisis has delivered a much-needed injection of hope, business leaders say.”,27753,24511100-31037,00.html

  4. It was weird, before I saw the footage I said to myself “Uhoh, if he’s eating fancy schmancy steaks and sipping down champagne this isn’t going to play out well..”.

    So I think the sandwiches/orange juice thing was a good idea, and definitely not pointless.

  5. Maybe but it also stops the Libs from being able to play politics by saying Rudd was wasting taxpayers money with a slap-up feast during these hard times.

  6. I wouldn’t have cared. What they eat and drink is not going to have an effect on the economic situation and was merely a show for the cameras.

  7. Giving people more money to spend and falling interest rates – not a bad bit of news for small business.

    Maybe Turnbull doesn’t understand this being a failed Minister (wasting $10m of Australia’s money on rain making powered by magic), failed shadow Treasurer and, failed merchant banker (FAI makes him a grade A failure) or maybe he is just being disingenuous? Surely Malcolm Rainmaker wouldn’t descend into cheap popularism?

  8. The Turnbull/Hockey footage of them visiting small businesses on the ABC news tonight however struck new lows in desperation and irrelevance. It also stunk of ‘look at me’ stunt tactics.

  9. ltep

    Only the Lib-Nats have major divisions over “Moral Issues” why an Australian Senator needs to promote the fact that he is “Pro Life” on his website is beyond me. This may be his personal view, but it is not his parties view.

    We do not need US style politics here.

    This is just another example of why the Liberal Party is a disunited rabble. 🙁

  10. Why wouldn’t he proudly state he is pro-life? There’s a (small) number of politicians on both sides who are religious fanatics and I’d rather them display it publicly so that I know not to bother listening to them.

  11. Some big news in SA. Owens (the journo) is a tool with a less than impeccable track record (I hope the Tiser media monitor picks that one up) but he’s reporting that a leadership challenge was headed off at the pass today.

    I’ve been telling everyone that Labor is probably gone but everyone laughs at me and not in a nice way. 🙁

    Looks like a few Labor pollies agree.

    [SENIOR Labor MPs have headed off a leadership challenge to Premier Mike Rann – a move aimed at installing Treasurer Kevin Foley in his place. ],22606,24510587-5006301,00.html

  12. Most certainly if they ate anything like an expensive meal there would be sections of the media to make that the entire issue.

    So Kev was avoiding the Liberal party sycophant journalists for one and of course doing some obvious symbolism. Rudd knows it is a bit of obvious symbolism and he knows the public will know that it is too, but they will accept it because they know it is a deliberate show and that he is communicating a message to them – that he understands that this is about them.

  13. Morgan always makes mistakes. They predicted Mark Latham would beat John Howard in 2004. Even I make better predictions than Morgan.

  14. [Govt action on financial crisis ‘spot on’]

    “We regard them as necessary, timely, and pretty well spot-on the money, because supporting the consumer is seen as a particularly important issue given the way that market conditions are evolving.

    She (Heather Ridout) said Mr Rudd had displayed the necessary leadership amid what was essentially a global recession, and she is pleased the Government has not been sidetracked from its long-term goal of increased productivity.”

    Meanwhile Mal and Joe go shopping for handbags. 🙂

  15. You think this comment from ANZ might get a run in Question Time next week:

    [The bank said the decision to cut the rate followed measures taken by governments in Australia and elsewhere to restore confidence to the global investment community.]

  16. The net result of all this will be that the public will have a memory of Rudd acting decisively and properly and looking after their interests. The details will fade but the character development remain.

    Depending on how the global economy plays out Rudd can either make himself protective of the banks or get heavy on the banks, people will buy either one depending on the circumstances. They don’t see the PM’s relationship with the banks as a set piece. And in fact a bit of later bank and business bashing given the appropriate opportunity will show that Rudd is not in anyone’s pockets.

    However I suspect the global recession will put the focus entirely on unemployment and that will have to be Rudd’s main narrative from now on. Which may be good for small business as they will more likely benefit from govt policy.

    So the score card is starting to look fairly impressive for Rudd.

    Saying Sorry
    Ratify Kyoto
    In with China
    Attack inflation & high rates
    Face off the economic crisis with prompt decisive action (work in progress)

    Next will be the hardest – dealing with unemployment. He doesn’t have to win it just do well or the best possible.

  17. TP

    I read somewhere that over history, the right is judged more by interest rates and the left more by unemployment so Ruddski’s still got another battle on his hands.

  18. “This is just another example of why the Liberal Party is a disunited rabble.”

    I was speaking to some mates who are “rabble” and they wished that people would stop identifying the fibs with them.

    They suggested at the very least people would now associate the fibs with ‘never do wells’ as at least the rabble have a clue.

  19. Some advice on the US scene from the Nobel prize winner Krugman some of which Rudd has started or talked about and some not necessary for Australia:

    [n the other hand, there’s a lot the federal government can do for the economy. It can provide extended benefits to the unemployed, which will both help distressed families cope and put money in the hands of people likely to spend it. It can provide emergency aid to state and local governments, so that they aren’t forced into steep spending cuts that both degrade public services and destroy jobs. It can buy up mortgages (but not at face value, as John McCain has proposed) and restructure the terms to help families stay in their homes.
    And this is also a good time to engage in some serious infrastructure spending, which the country badly needs in any case. The usual argument against public works as economic stimulus is that they take too long: by the time you get around to repairing that bridge and upgrading that rail line, the slump is over and the stimulus isn’t needed. Well, that argument has no force now, since the chances that this slump will be over anytime soon are virtually nil. So let’s get those projects rolling.]

  20. so Ruddski’s still got another battle on his hands.

    Just so it isn’t another of those bloody tests. The poor bugger has faced more of them in his first 11 months than all the private school kids combined!

  21. Rudd can now use the “Hilliary would have been a mile in front by now” type argument if his measures to minimise the negative effects on Australian economy from the world slow down don’t work as well as he would like. That is, he can say at the appropriate time in the future that if these measures hadn’t been taken our economy would have been in far worse condition than we now find ourselves in..

  22. And this is also a good time to engage in some serious infrastructure spending, which the country badly needs in any case.

    That certainly applies here. Too bad 99% of the surpluses that could have paid for it were wasted keeping a bunch of do-nothing no hopers on the treasury benches. 🙁

  23. Especially when he can compare our (hopefully) relatively high growth rates, when most of the developed world will be in recession, and our lower unemployment rates.

  24. re 71.

    You are kidding ruawake. Even Heather Ridout is commending Rudd.

    It’s Dr. Smith in Lost In Space for the Liberals “Oh the pain, the pain of it all”.

  25. “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd will join rugby league great Andrew Johns on Sunday as he kicks off a six-day walk to raise funds to help tackle bipolar disorder.
    Mr Rudd will join Johns for the first 5.5km leg of the walk from Civic Park at Newcastle.”,23599,24513539-29277,00.html

    Yeah Ok I know there will be cries of Stunt! but you gotta give it to Ruddy,
    Sunday agenda:
    have a walk with Joey Johns
    do TV show with 100 punters to answer questions and give advice
    “My name is Kevin and I’m here to help”

    Turnip will be want equal time for sure, maybe he’ll do the last 5-5kms?

  26. Meanwhile, after the Government announces bonuses to pensioners and family tax benefit recipients etc, the Rainmaker says Rudd is spending too much time with the big end of town. Mate, get a grip.

  27. ROFL.

    Chick on Lateline “I think Malcolm Turnbull’s played it pretty well, Leigh”.

    She was from the Australian Financial Review though.

  28. Every time I see Hockey on TV I am struck by how much he has damaged his brand. When he and Rudd were on TV together he was doing pretty good and seemed like old likable Joe. But events bring out the real persons character and what Hockey has revealed is a jealous bitterness. The guy refuses to accept that he got booted out and is still sulking big time.

  29. I haven’t seen Hockey on TV much since the election, except for Question Time where he does come across very bitter and angry. He gives the impression of being mortally offended at being kicked out: the born-to-rule mindset for which the Liberals are developing an unshakeable reputation.

  30. I feel optomistic about the economy and can feel another boom coming. There are still plenty of wealthy people out there who will be feeling in need of a holiday and what more could they want than a beautiful destination with an excellent exchange rate in a developed country that’s not in financial ruin and which is currently running a big tourism campaign!

  31. @70

    If it helps you to sleep at night, keep telling yourself that. The fact is that ALL the polls have Labor at 55-45 or better and have done so for the past two years. The Howard years always saw the polls at 50-50 give or take a few. Never has it been so lopsided, and never for such a length of time.

    As much as it may puncture your heart, it is a very long road back for the Liberal Party.

  32. I don’t think we will have an idea how the economies are going until end of January’09 once the Christmas period is out of the way and the worst of the northern winter is upon them.

    There will be a global recession but how bad we don’t know yet and, I am guessing that will further affect energy and mining stocks and if there is a flow through significant increase in unemployment then you begin to worry about property markets and bank revenues. However once it is clear the bottom has been reached and the long slow road to recovery begun – then it might be time to consider to making a lump some contribution to my super to buy in at the lower prices. That is my personal strategy at this stage anyway, not that I am any sort of an expert.

  33. Good one TP @ 93. Better comment than most I have read on the stock market.

    Thursday night I suggested that Suncorp Metway, with a closing price of $8.10 provided the best value in the finance sector. Friday closing of the major banks:
    – CBA down $0.99. NAB down $1.10. WBC down $0.52. ANZ down $0.48. SGB down $0.40.
    – SUN up $0.29.

    There you go. Not everybody talks through their backside.

  34. Laugh of the Year: Ray Martin says we need more quality journalism like that at The Australian and the ABC.

    Admittedly, he didn’t mention their front page opinionistas and their little pieces of paper (seeming to be more focused on indigenous affairs reportage) as prime examples of the journalistic art, but he did hand over a bouquet to Rupert for being “committed” to investing in great journalism. Like Fox News and The Daily Telegraph I suppose?


    (Notice in which newspaper this story was reported).

    On Lateline last night, another example of the superb journalism of the ABC. The question was asked, “How’s Malcolm Turnbull going?”. For a few seconds I struggled to grasp the import of the words. Maybe I was tired.

    “Malcolm who?” I thought to myself, and then,

    “Oh yes, that Malcolm…”

    In the context of the interview – George Megalogenis and Laura Tingle (both pretty well respected) being asked about how the economic crisis has been handled – the question from Leigh Sales was practically a non sequiter. How can the Opposition “handle” this crisis? By bleating at the margins that they thought of (whatever-it-is) first? Or by claiming that it’s been them who have put downward pressure on interest rates and the banking wallahs who set them? (by the way, another promise fulfilled by Labor, as rates are now lower than when Howard left office). By “demanding” (as reported on ABC radio news this morning, and on-line) that the other banks reduce rates in line with the ANZ’s cheeky little rate drop? And when they do is the ABC going to give them credit? The only thing that needs to be “given” is a break, to me, as in “FFS, give me a break!” I wonder how long this poor charade of “balance” from the ABC has to continue.

    [“Wayne Swan’s attitude to the banks waxes and wanes, if I can put it that way,” [Julie Bishop] said.

    “One minute he’s defending the banks, the next minute he’s attacking them and, as long as he takes blame for the bad news he can take credit for the good news.”]

    This reject from the Barbie Doll production line (got the wrong eyes) is actually trying to engender a scenario where last week’s 0.8% drop in interest rates is “bad news”. It’d be London to a brick that the rest of the banks will eventually pass on some more of the relief they are now feeling… that’s if they want to remain competitive (and I they do). Even my poor old “People’s Bank”, Bendigo-Adelaide, coughed up with a belated -0.75% yesterday, and the rumour is there’s more to come as the banks, large and small, try to gee-up the stagnant housing market, going from defence to offence. I guess Bishop and Turnbull will try to take the credit, if their Rainmaking scam proceeds in the usual fashion.

    Bishop might also apply her last sentence from the quote above to herself. But she won’t, of course. She doesn’t realise that Swan is playing a dual role – both “Good” cop and “Bad” cop at the same time. It all depends on who the audience is.

    This off-Broadway reduction by the ANZ, out of sync with the RBA is designed to show that if the banks can dish it out, they can cop a punch too. The government has been very nice to them, guaranteeing their products and their ledgers. Now is the time for payback.

    And it has nothing to do with the sideline barking coming from the Opposition tent, or the Barbie’s late Friday posturings, parasiting off the government’s good work, purely for the benefit of the early morning ABC radio news.

  35. Thinking about this whole sily episode (of reporting), I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over it if I was Rudd. The posibilities are as follows:
    – If Australia avoids recession (> 50% likely IMO), when the US and Europe are already in one, he and Swan will have done very well.
    – If Australia doesn’t avoid recession (< 50% likely IMO) then they should keep working to kick-start the economy and remind voters how compassionate the workchoices-obsessed opposition was, who encouraged them to put more into super, and who made all the alarmist talk that spooked markets.
    – As long as they don’t act in a way that makes it appear a recession is Labor’s fault (very difficult, when its obviously a world wide problem and we were one of the first countries to act on a solution and a stimulus package) I don’t see how their support will drop.
    – At present they are acting responsibly, decisively, and putting forward solutions that are so obviously reasonable that they demand bi-partisan support. As long as that continues they will be fine.

  36. I’m not sure that our chances of avoiding recession are >50%, Socrates.

    I believe this calamity is a long way from the bottom yet. If you look at just about any international recession it has really gone bad some time after the initial implosion. While stockbrokers may have been jumping out* of Wall St towers in 1929, it took a year or two to really king hit the common man/woman. And it took upward of 4 years for the Reagan inspired U.S. Savings & Loan crisis, which first started to bite in 1987, to turn into the 1991/2 “recession we had to have”

    * a myth

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