Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll of federal voting intention shows no change on Labor’s 57.5-42.5 two-party lead in the previous survey. Both parties are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote since the previous face-to-face poll, Labor to 46 per cent and the Coalition to 36 per cent. Morgan also provides preferred leader ratings which show a substantial improvement for Kevin Rudd since the survey conducted three weeks ago, immediately after Malcolm Turnbull became Liberal leader. Rudd is up from 55 per cent to 62.5 per cent, while Turnbull is down from 30 per cent to 24 percent.

Other news:

• The Western Australian Liberal Party is apparently set to extend its dismal record on female representation following Deidre Willmott’s withdrawal from the race to fill the retiring Chris Ellison’s Senate vacancy. Willmott stood aside as candidate for Cottesloe before the state election to allow Colin Barnett to go back on his retirement plans and assume the party leadership. The party thus emerged from the election with two women in the lower house out of 24, both back-benchers in marginal seats. The West Australian (which made three passing references to the state of the Liberals’ female representation during the state election campaign, two of them favourable) reported earlier this week that Willmott withdrew from the Senate race after “internal discontent with her move surfaced following the Liberal Party’s State council meeting”. This prompted Willmott to say she believed it would be “difficult to get the level of support required”. Today’s Financial Review reports that the race is now between two state party office holders, senior vice-president Anthony Jarvis and treasurer Dean Smith, with the former starting favourite.

• Frequent Poll Bludger commenter and occasional Greens candidate Ben Raue has started an excellent new psephological blog called The Tally Room.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

241 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  2. “It’s one television performance after another and a speech at the Press Club.”
    So says the Rainman about Rudd on his ABC (Insiders)
    isn’t jealousy a curse, and this from a bloke in the middle of a TV performance, priceless.

  4. Yeah, but it’s OK for Turnbull to be on ABC TV and Bishop to do channel 10 this morning
    Meanwhile Kev is doing a charity walk in Newcastle accompanied by 500 locals

  5. Did anyone read this BS by Allan Ramsay. Amazing stuff. While most are praising Rudd for the actions he is taking Ramsay wants to criticise him for having the gaul to go directly to the people and tell them about what he is doing instead of telling parliament. You know, that place that everyone turns on and watches with excitement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/alan-ramsey/extreme-times-coming-to-a-tv-near-you/2008/10/17/1223750326824.html

  7. I was just thinking about Milne’s record of political savvy. This wa in the context of a thought that entered my head: what if I met him in a supermarket queue? What would I say to him?

    I guess I’d suggest to him that today’s column of his is awful crap.

    He would nod, knowingly and modestly inform me that he is the one paid a fortune to write political commentary, and I’m just a dumb blogger (this is much what the ABC says when you write to them complaining, so I guess, judging from other political journos’ plonking contempt for bloggers, Glenn would spout the same line as well).

    I would then point out the following failed campaigns, theories and predictions:

    General Predictions
    * Howard will win the 2007 election
    * Peter Costello will make his move on Howard in 2006.
    * Peter Costello will make his move on Howard in 2007.
    * Peter Costello will make his move on Nelson in 2008.
    * Peter Costello’s book is destined to be a best-seller.
    * Peter Costello is just waiting foer his chance to unseat Turnbull. That’s why he’s hanging around.

    Rudd.
    * Rudd will be punished by seeking to go to Long Tan for Anzac Day, 2007.
    * Rudd will be punished for being thrown out of that NY strip club for drunken behavior (note: an unsubstantiated allegation never retracted).
    * Rudd will be punished by the electorate for lying about his childhood.
    * Therese Rein’s business dealings will be the undoing of Rudd.
    * Rudd’s performance in the polls is only due to a honeymoon.
    * Rudd’s performance in the polls is only due to Brendan Nelson.
    * Up against Turnbull, Rudd is now performing poorly in the polls.
    * Anyway, the polls don’t matter.
    * The Alcopops Tax will be found to be unpopular and ineffective (note: even the Liquor Indistry agrees now that it works, polls say it is incredibly popular).
    * Rudd’s trip to America a few weeks ago would be hugely unpopular (note: according to Essential Reasearch it was quite popular).

    Milne, I’m sure, would be unrepentant, as say that he has insider knowledge and that he will be proved right in the end: Rudd will need a miracle not to be a “oncer”.

    Did I miss anything in my list? I’m sure there were lot’s more confident predictions from the diminutive political savant that were proved completely wrong, perhaps so many that I’ve missed a few (or even a lot). But what credibility does this small-minded person have (apart from being a natty dresser)?

    I think I’ve answered my own question, actually.

  12. Wasn’t it TPD who said the economic down turn was going to make the Rudd government a one termer and that Costello would bide his time and step into the breach when things went bad? That people would turn to the “best treasurer in the world” in time of crisis. Is he now telling us that this crisis will now save the Rudd government? That is some turn around in thinking.

  13. TPD only said it might just save Rudd.

    The clear implication is that TPD still thinks it’s highly unlikely Rudd would get re-elected (amazingly a sentiment he reported last week as being also the Liberal Party’s exact way of thinking… but then Glenn’s an insider), but if he saves the Australian economy, making it one of the very few (if not the only) country NOT to go into recession, recovers in the polls from his disastrous 62% PPM and 57.5/42.5 TPP position, doesn’t fart in front of the Queen and appoints Costello as Treasurer and Turnbull as Assistant Treasurer, then Rudd and his bunch of amateurs just might survive.

    Iffy, but hey, Glenn’s a generous guy, and you can’t say he isn’t prepared to give Labor the benefit of the doubt. But wow, a lot of things have to go right in the meantime for Kevin. I was quite upbeat abotu the way things were going for Labopr until I read TPD’s masterful thesis. Now a free ticket to Disneyland couldn’t cheer me up.

  18. I heard a grab of Julie Bishop just now, “”We would consider tax cuts but it depends what shape Labor leaves the budget”.

    Why is she answering a question like Government is guaranteed for her in the next few weeks?

  22. [Bligh denied it ,said no election until 2009]

    Should bloody hope not. Would have to be one of the dumbest things to do about now, no matter how bad an opposition you were facing.

  25. Capt. Bligh has always said Qld will go full term. There is a lot of infrastructury stuff nearly completed.

    Channel 10 must think 1+1 = 5 or something weird.

  27. There will not be a recession in Australia and I doubt any credable forcasting agency would predict one.

    Sure the economy will slow, but two quarters of negative growth will only happen by incompetence. The only people hoping for a recession are the Coalition cheer squad, as they see it as their only chance of regaining the treasury benches.

    The RBA will probably cut interest rates by another 2% making the “average” mortgage $240 a month less (makes the Rudd Chrissy presents pale into insignificance).

    In a years time the average punter will be saying, great that World Financial Crisis really helped my living standards. I have more cash to spend than I ever had, thanks Kev.

  39. Someone just asked a question about obscene payouts to execs who run companies into the ground – he got applause. Rudd said “Enough is enough” and got more applause.

    Let’s see how he answers.

  40. Ok… he kind of didn’t. Talked about how he wants renumeration packages to be linked to performance, but didn’t give anymore details. More applause.

  41. He’s flagging whoring more of ourhina ‘resources’ to China. This time, uranium.

    Ok, 7 just went to an ad. I was wondering if they would. So aren’t they kind of profiting from the PM? Why did he pick 7? Do they do something special with this revenue? Did they donate to Labor?

  46. [Yeah the questions are like 20 minutes long. Enjoy your 20 minutes of fame, Rabbitoh’s supporter.]

    TBH I’d prefer that each topic got a thorough discussion rather than just a 30 second canned response. There’s so little deep analysis these days.

  47. Come on, Dario. It’s a half an hour program on Channel 7 at 6:30.

    He should follow this up with an hour or so with Tony Jones.

    He just said he’s going to “plug in” some lady with Tanya Plibersek, to answer a question about housing.

    I wouldn’t mind being “plugged in” to Tanya. Zing.

  50. [Come on, Dario. It’s a half an hour program on Channel 7 at 6:30.]

    Is it only half an hour? Oh well that sucks. Take out the ad breaks and it’s hardly worth it!

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