Presidential election minus 26 days

I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others – – – 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 – 369 169

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Presidential election minus 26 days”

Comments Page 18 of 19
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  2. Diogenes,

    I’m sure you do. But, since you drive a lamp, enlightenment would be a pre requisite of existence would it not?

  3. Amigo FINNS
    “the drinks are on me.”

    I’m in that However after you run out of money then they ar on me ….may as well hav a good sesson of celebration

  4. [Obama is not beating or going to beat McCain. It was GW Bush that is beating and going to beat Mccain.]

    Ok, so why should the GWB handicap be as great as 15%?

  5. /Edward Scissorhands style on
    [The Republicans bailing out the banks.]
    Hi
    [60% of the UK banking system nationalised.]
    Greensborough
    [Umm, capitalism seems to have taken such a new socialistic direction, that monnikers like left and right mean nothing.]
    Growler!
    [You hav cut & pasted these exact words for week s But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him]
    Oh OK, but what about McCain associating himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?

    Hey Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?
    [Obama is not beating or going to beat McCain. It was GW Bush that is beating and going to beat Mccain. As I said, the Obama supporters should not too cocky about it.]
    I don’t think it actually matters how (and if) Obama gets 270 votes in the E.C. A win is a win is a win.
    [I believe in Enlightenment values.]
    Same here! That makes two of us.

  9. Grog

    if you ar satisfied with Diogenes #845 narrative dreams then you ar easly satisfied , however psephologicaly Obama should be miles ahead which was FINNS point & there ar reasons why Obama should hav been yet 3 weeks ago it was close

  12. [showson
    you spin me out sometimes dude :)]
    Sorry! No harm intended.
    [#857
    “you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”

    Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism]
    LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?
    [f you ar satisfied with Diogenes #845 narrative dreams then you ar easly satisfied , however psephologicaly Obama should be miles ahead which was FINNS point & there ar reasons why Obama should hav been yet 3 weeks ago it was close]
    Obama is 42% ahead in the 9th dimension Ron, you should know that by now.

  15. “What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?”

    3842 ShowsOn You hav cut & pasted these exact words for WEEKS (probably 14 times) But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him

    Why do you not hav intelectual integriys to say who ?

    Now you repeated th same words exact cut & past again .. and again without saying who (ar you afraid what comparative Wright to Obama and vice vers quotes I hav)

  18. 859 – it was joke joyce.

    Why ‘psephologicaly’ Obama should be miles ahead?

    Isn’t 10% miles ahead? It’s a freakin landslide, and also to me seems “‘psephologicaly” about right.

    I see no reason why Obama should beat McCain better than Clinton beat Dole.

    McCain is better than Dole IMO; the power of incumbancy of Clinton is = to the negative of the Bush factor…

  22. Amigo FINNS

    a test in lateral logic and commonsense

    #857 Gusface “you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”

    #856 Ron Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism

    #ShowOn #862 LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?

    I just knew a literalist would take my words ‘Second word’ and actualy repeat th quote of oneself , where is some competition amigo

  24. [I just knew a literalist would take my words ‘Second word’ and actualy repeat th quote of oneself , where is some competition amigo]
    Yes, because the words “second” and “word” actually have specific meanings.

    Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?

  25. [What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?]

    ShowsOn, you’ve used this argument four times on this thread alone. Just as I’ve asked Ron to give William Ayers a rest, so I’m asking you with this.

  26. #868

    Whilst result may not change , FINNS & later I were simply explaing voters reactions to policys , candidates & events without narratives being written based on a messahiac belief it was all of a sudden th Obama message had been received There were psephological reaons why up to a mere 3 weeks weeks ago it was close (when it should NOT hav been and certainly (leave Hillary out) would not hav been say with AL Gore …and why since then there has been an Obama surge (and despite some nonsensical polling info given here , th polls support what we hav said)

  28. This is really weird. I got this email with “This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee” but why it was signed by “Barack”.

    [Friend —

    In these final three weeks, our opponents are signaling they will do whatever they can to distract voters and distort the truth, so we need to redouble our efforts.

    The negative ads and smears seem to grow by the day. The most effective way to respond is by reaching out to more people than ever before with the truth — the stakes in this election are too high not to.

    We need to grow this movement by 100,000 new donors before Friday.

    A previous donor has promised to match your donation to encourage you to give for the first time. This is your last opportunity to partner with a fellow supporter and make your donation go twice as far.

    Your donation of $5 will become $10, $25 becomes $50, and $50 becomes $100. Double your impact by making a matched donation today.

    Make a matched donation

    Our first 100,000 donors gave this campaign the strength it needed to become a movement.

    Back then, few pundits or insiders thought we had a chance. But we overcame steep odds. Those first 100,000 donors turned into millions of people like you, all across this country, coming together to work for change.

    Now we need to come full circle. We have just one week to grow this movement by 100,000 donors.

    It won’t be easy, but we’ve always grown this campaign when it mattered most.

    Will you step up and own a piece of this movement today? Make a donation right now and your gift will be doubled by a previous supporter:

    https://donate.barackobama.com/match

    We only have 22 days left. Help this campaign finish as strong as we started. Make a matched donation today.

    Thanks, Barack

    Paid for and authorized by the Democratic National Committee, http://www.democrats.org.
    This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

    Democratic National Committee, 430 S. Capitol St. SE, Washington, DC 20003]

  30. [This is really weird. I got this email with “This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee” but why it was signed by “Barack”.]
    Looks like a phishing scam to me.

  33. William Bowe #713

    Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
    “Enough about freakin’ William Ayers already.”

    There had been exchanges that nite on Ayers I took that comment simply as a request for that nite and replied arguing William Ayers was legitmate issue able to reasonably continue to discuss on this Thread which I propose to do beleiving Ayers was not censored subject and asume my intyerpretation was ok

    Ron #730
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 12:01 am | Permalink
    “If it is suggested William Ayers issue which along with economy is dominating US news , is NOT relevant to US electon & should not be discussed here then why not limit all discussion pro Obama
    I man after it was relevant for a month of numerous posts on Palin including her family , het husband , her religion and indeed her OWN pregnancy”
    .
    .
    (whereas ShowsOn repetition is a different issue , its NOT an key eklection issue like Ayers and I was simply highlightling to him his repetition without him saying who he was talking about)

  35. Not sure who, but an earlier commenter suggested it was McCain’s response to the financial crisis that torpedoed his campaign. I tend to agree.

    It is clear now that he didn’t have any idea at all what to do about it. His declaration during the first debate that he would massively cut government spending if elected has now been shown to be exactly the opposite of what was required – with all western governments, including Australia, now opening the purse strings to try and head off, or minimise, a threatening world wide recession. Even the once revered and untouchable surplus is now being spent to try and reactivate economic activity.

    With an apparent inabilty to recognise and adapt to the fact that many of the major tenets of our world financial system have now been swept away, McCain has simply been left behind. .

    .

  36. [ron
    did you get the telegram as well perchance?]
    He got the Morse code version.

    I assume that’s what Ron uses to tap out his posts here.

  37. Darn,

    I reckon Bush’s 23 % popularity rating and the implicit trashing of the Republican brand is a cross that McCain has struggled to bear. Basically, Obama has kept his mouth shut and offerred nothing but platitudes. This is good politics.

    However, I wouldn’t be projecting magical powers on Obama as yet. If he wins, he gets to clean up all the crap.

  38. [However, I wouldn’t be projecting magical powers on Obama as yet. If he wins, he gets to clean up all the crap.]
    Who has been projecting magical powers on Obama?

  40. Looks like there might be more to come for Palin…

    [Board’s Troopergate probe casts wider net

    The state Personnel Board investigation of Gov. Sarah Palin’s firing of Walt Monegan has broadened to include other ethics complaints against the governor and examination of actions by other state employees, according to the independent counsel handling the case.]

    http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/555288.html

  41. Dario,

    I’m sure you hope so. But, it’s a non issue except for people who are fair and balanced but already made up their mind.

  42. ron,finns
    in the interest of fair play i came across this article

    sort makes sense,but like howies run here -too little too late

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JJ15Aa01.html

    “Instead of name calling and phony charges that lead everyone off-track, McCain should say he’ll talk about the real issues and his real solutions. After all, that’s why he wants to be president. With the economy increasingly the key issue, McCain needs to keep getting specific and pushing Obama to do the same. “

  43. [I’m sure you hope so. But, it’s a non issue except for people who are fair and balanced but already made up their mind.]

    You should think about a job with Fox News…

  45. GG Amigo

    he would need to learn my correct grammar speling & syntax’s first to get an executive job interview as thats th light to clarity

    “It is clear now that he (MCcain) didn’t have any idea at all what to do about it (Bailout etc) ”

    As I suggrested with #868 , it is not what has caused change from close race from 3 weeks ealier , although your feel of his knowledge may hav merit

  49. Gusface

    Answer to your ealier question is NO , you’ve misread meaning without first smiling

    Answer to your comment re a poster “I dont get them at first reading” AGREE

    answer to “in the interest of fair play i came across this article” is th 60% of argument on issues approach espec conomy 7 having an czar expert has lots of merit & should be implemented with 70% MCain time emphasis , whilst re th 40% of article on ‘name callling’ I completely disagree with th writer becauase th writer completely misunderstands Obama’s weakness in this area & foolishly wants to drop it all , whilst parodoxicaly McCain & Palin hav th ammuition but there use of it is typical swift boats nonsense & often lies , as they misunderstand what th ammunition means

  50. Hahahahahaha talk about dumb!

    [Republican John McCain pledged to fight for a new direction for the country in an energetic new campaign stump speech Monday that sought to distance him from the economic policies of President Bush.

    …..

    The Virginia Beach Fire Marshal’s office estimated the size of the crowd to be 12,000. A McCain campaign spokeswoman claimed the crowd size was 25,000, but the Convention Center’s capacity is only 16,000.]

    http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_top_101308_mccain_rally.10ac0eb1e.html

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