Presidential election minus 26 days

I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others – – – 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 – 369 169

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Presidential election minus 26 days”

Comments Page 17 of 19
1 … 16 17 18 19

  1. Woooo Hoooo 🙂 🙂

    [
    The Conservative’s Canada
    Where can Republicans threaten to move if Obama wins?

    By Chris Wilson
    Posted Friday, Oct. 10, 2008, at 2:51 PM ET

    Conservatives have no Canada. Which is to say, they have no mythical land of ideological soul mates to which they can flee to nurse their wounds and commiserate over lost elections and flunked initiatives. Part of the reason for this may be temperamental: Even staring into the maw of an Obama-friendly electoral map, Republicans’ first instinct is not to threaten expatriation. (The McCain-Palin slogan, after all, is “country first.”) They have no backup plan for when the country they live in becomes politically unrecognizable.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2202070/
    ]

  2. Further to 801, about 3/4 of the way through the article they suggest Australia as a destination for disgruntled US conservatives to move to after the election is over when Obama wins. Don’t know what they were on when they suggested Australia as a place where conservatives would be happy, Australia is MORE liberal than the US imho 😉 …….

  3. OT if you haven’t been following regular news today (or the generic PB thread), Rudd will be on TV @ 6:30 with a speech to present his emergency stimulus package to the nation.

  4. [It’s easy to see 59 seats for the Dems. The 60th is much harder – they will have to win MS, KY or GA. The Repubs are ahead in all three at the moment.]
    And it looks like Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election anyway.
    [Hillary would have been +20 by now.]
    Incorrect, the correct number is +37.

  5. Finnster

    Wash your mouth out with soap! Rumsfeldt did not coin the phrase “unknown unknown”. It was Nassim Nicholas Taleb who also predicted the stock market crash in his brilliant book “Black Swans-The Impact of the Highly Improbable”.

  7. Finns

    We are all socialists now. 😀

    [The U.S. government is dramatically escalating its response to the financial crisis by planning to invest $250 billion in the country’s banks, forcing nine of the largest to accept a Treasury stake in what amounts to a partial nationalization.]

    U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101300184.html?nav=rss_business

  8. Diog, yes, the dialectic dreams of an accused self proclaimed Marxist Revolutionary, the landscape is looking very good among the carrions that strewed across Wall St :razz” 😛

  9. [Diog, as Mao once famously said to Nixon: “I love the rightist especially when they are acting like a socialist”.]
    I don’t know why we should take Mao’s opinion of much seriously. Watergate was a bit of a giggle when compared to the Cultural Revolution.

  10. Re 807,

    [
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 6:56 pm | Permalink
    Finns

    We are all socialists now.
    ]

    Dio, I don’t mind being “socialist” when the government is giving me money 😉 …. our family gets cash courtesy of the government today and you can bet your last dollar that if I was still living in the US, that I wouldn’t be taken care of as nicely by the current mob in power over there 😉 …….

  13. Yes Amigo FINNS

    you were right about RCP that polls were up for McCain before th crash & McCain was in front thats a fact and th nonsense by our blind sided Obama supporters trying to ‘spin’ otherwise is typical polling garbage In week preceding crash when ‘crashs’ were published trend started against McCain and immediately after crash th J curve for obama

    When you hit or there is a fear of hitting that hip pocket severely , politcal allegiences go ourt window Many bad ‘storys’ hav & will result from meltdown including innocent ‘oz’ and innocent ‘oz’ peoples…Obama is a direct beneficiary & hindsite will qanswer if another Carter , or worse…but one definite plus is on US psche…that blind US of A faith in there liberty almost unfettered free market system is now in same bin as th Soviet model with US confidence weakened in it

    but only weakened , thru grited teeth hav they tasted joys of some socialism , but will there follow core Labor ‘left” principals of reel regulastion & prudentsal oversite and adeqate rules & disclosures follow & some big Govt & some ACCC etc and markets ar not there for just plunder by wealiest or or ‘informned’ but for social all peoples outcomes

    Actualy US Federal Reserve supervises th US Banking System only but does NOT supervise ALL Deposit Taking Institutions where most of US defawlting home loans came from so that was first problem , as there’s no US APRA or above govt ‘filters’ supervising Now posters can blog to themselves that this is a Republican cause but fail to undrstand few of above ‘oz’ controls exist as such controls like APRA etc & sensible regulation sr supposedly ‘socialist’ so both Republican & Democrat Partys reely did created this unsupervised tiger ,

    All thats now needed is US pollies not to weaken , swallow yankee pride & accept some reel ‘left’ (aleged socialism) over markets etc aussie style

    Rudd guarantees all deposits in all institution for 3 years , sensbile….US should also but hav no APRA etc so don’t know how deep th bad apples go

  14. [you were right about RCP that polls were up for McCain before th crash & McCain was in front thats a fact and th nonsense by our blind sided Obama supporters trying to ’spin’ otherwise]
    Translation: McCain got a boost from his campaign launch, but before that, Obama was in front.
    [but will there follow core Labor ‘left” principals of reel regulastion & prudentsal oversite and adeqate rules & disclosures follow]
    If Obama wins YES, if McCain wins NO.

  15. [McCain got a boost from his campaign launch, but before that, Obama was in front.]

    Therefore, if there has not been the meltdown, McCain probably would have stayed in front and Obama is ffffked with the Obama supporters here committing mass hara-kiri. Not a pretty sight.

  17. The Finnigans
    you do truly believe mccain/palin would beat obama/biden?

    most of the polls etc show a clear lead to obama pre the meltdown.

    on what,besides seemingly blind faith, do you base your view.

  18. Gus @ 817 and Finnigans,

    Finns, put your word where your heart is and give us a prediction for McCain on EV’s in our little contest here. Come on, if you really believe you must have some numbers in mind …… 10 of us are waiting for you to step up on this one …..

  21. [Therefore, if there has not been the meltdown, McCain probably would have stayed in front]

    Sure, and Hillary would have been leading by 748%, we get it

  22. [obama is just one lucky dude. ]

    But if the public did not trust his economic policy ability he’d be toast, and we’d be saying how McCain was lucky. You make your own luck.

  23. [Before the meltdown, i think obama/biden was dead even or just slightly in-front of mccain/palin. so it was 50/50 and because obama is black, then who knows?]

    Again I call bullshit. Obama got a bounce from his convention… Obama in front by 7. Then McCain gets a bounce from his convention… McCain in front by 1. What comes next without a meltdown? Back to Obama. With a meltdown it came back even bigger.

  25. Further to my post the other day where I wondered if Palin was rowing her own 2012 boat and not the leaky McCain 2008 hulk, it is fairly obvious that many of the people (barnacles) who have clung to the neocon raft for the last 8 years have detached themselves now that it is amongst the fatal shoals and swum for shore, loudly proclaiming that the imminent disaster is none of their doing, and claiming that the hapless pilot McCain is to blame for not steering even further to the right. The fact that everybody but them can see even more dangerous reefs on the right is of no matter to them. Its every neocon for themselves!

  27. [Therefore, if there has not been the meltdown, McCain probably would have stayed in front and Obama is ffffked with the Obama supporters here committing mass hara-kiri. Not a pretty sight.]
    That would assume McCain had a campaign launch ever week.

  28. Is there any point in this discussion about “If so and so hadn’t happened, McCain/Hillary/Bob Dole would have won!”.

    The entire planet doesn’t go on pause during election campaigns. Stuff happens, candidates respond and the people decide.

  29. [The entire planet doesn’t go on pause during election campaigns. Stuff happens, candidates respond and the people decide.]
    I see your point, however, in the 8th dimension Hillary would’ve won.

  30. fins, why “should” Obama be ahead by 15%?

    Reagan beat Mondale 58-40.
    Bush sr beat Dukakis 53-45
    Clinton beat Bush 43-37 (ignore Perot)
    Clinton beat Dole 49-40

    So Reagan over Mondale is the only one who got 15+
    You really think Obama should be as strong as Ronnie was in 84? Do you really think that McCain is as bad as Mondale?

  31. “obama/biden should be +15 but they are not.”

    why so?

    “because obama is black, then who knows?”

    I thought that way back when,but now have realised that the US is ready to accept a black person-race is less an issue than the 1960’s-which i think is the core of the mccain followers “not getting it’

    ps I like obi ,could handle hillbill but basically want the pugs out and their heinious philosophies cast into the bin of history
    Dont you The Finnigans?

  32. Amigo FINNS

    You correctly quoted stat facts but our experience says Obama supporters when faced with them ….well some remain silence just won’t acknowledge , and some “narrate” , just like there Messaiah facts & polls ar totally dispensible Some posts since yours nonsensically quote stats in wonderland not understanding them
    Precous & sensitive for there man

    But US is full of elitists progressives or intelegentsia Obama supporters where core ‘left’ policys were never important anyway to them anyway & its obvious from responses , only there “progressive” ones were important but Obama has ditched a lot of them as well Whats left is a ‘Democrat candidate , derobed with words as a front man , and perhaps Democrat Party itself as a byproduct improve status quo

  34. [Some posts since yours nonsensically quote stats in wonderland not understanding them]

    ok then Ron, how far ahead “should” Obama be?

    explain to me why Obama “should” be ahead by margins not seen since 1984.

  35. [You correctly quoted stat facts but our experience says Obama supporters when faced with them ]
    What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?
    [But US is full of elitists progressives or intelegentsia Obama supporters where core ‘left’ policys were never important anyway ]
    WTF? Obama’s policies are core left, assuming you know anything about political ideology.
    [o them anyway & its obvious from responses , only there “progressive” ones were important but Obama has ditched a lot of them as well Whats left is a ‘Democrat candidate , derobed with words as a front man , and perhaps Democrat Party itself as a byproduct improve status quo]
    Go do some reading Ronster. Obama’s policies are more left wing than Clinton’s, Kerry’s and Gore’s.

  36. The Republicans bailing out the banks. 60% of the UK banking system nationalised. Umm, capitalism seems to have taken such a new socialistic direction, that monnikers like left and right mean nothing.

  37. On come on, Ron is talking absolute crap but Obama’s policies are most certainly not “core left”. But it’s a stupid term anyway as it’s completely relative and subjective.

  42. “What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?”

    You hav cut & pasted these exact words for week s But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him

    Why do you not hav intelectual so say who…because if its McCain vs Obama’s Pastor Wright then I’ve got tons of respective lying & crazy Obama & Wright quotes make McCain look like an Angel time to get off th fence

    THEN
    Dario “Again I call bullshit”

    Before you ar qualified to make that call you need to learn FINNS excellnt polling skills , and todate your polling figures ar rubbery & foolish on pre & post crash polling

    Grog
    you need to carefully read what FINNS #820 said and then see your questomn does not match my comments at all

  43. Amigo GG & Ronnie, maybe we should get together to celebrate the creation of USSR (United States Socialist Republic) with Chairman Obama as the President of the Politburo (i am in generous mood, i give him one term). the drinks are on me.

  44. Oz

    #837
    You obviously do not know qwhat core ‘left’ policys ar so you ar talking absolute crap because many Obama’s policies are most certainly not (obama is simply to th left of th consservative McCain)

  45. Finns

    I agree that it would have been a lot closer without the meltdown but I’m still pretty sure we would have won. The meltdown helped in so many ways that it was a Perfect Storm.

    It made everyone concentrate on substance instead of character.
    It made the economy the main issue.
    It made Palin look more dangerous.
    It made McCain look erratic and Obama presidential.
    It tied McCain to the Repugs.
    It made McCain look like an idiot when his own party voted against the bill he stopped his campaign to help pass.

    It was a beautiful thing. We may never again see a gift from the electoral gods like it again. It almost made a believer out of me.

  46. [you need to carefully read what FINNS #820 said and then see your questomn does not match my comments at all]

    That’s fine, I still would love someone to give me a reason why Obama “should” be beating McCain almost as well as Reagan beat Mondale.

  48. Grog, it must be too much of it to cause such density.

    Obama is not beating or going to beat McCain. It was GW Bush that is beating and going to beat Mccain. As I said, the Obama supporters should not too cocky about it.

  49. 845
    When you put it like that, Obama should be ahead by 15%!

    mea culpa. I was in the Billary camp; still not all that excited by Obama; once McCain ‘chose’ Palin and then the meltdown it became a drover’s dog election for the Dems – and always bet on a mangy drover’s dog over a pitbull with lipstick 😉

  50. GG

    I believe in Enlightenment values.

    Finns

    McCain’s campaign has been a shambles. He has been erratic and “unpresidential”. But it was his response to the economic meltdown that lost this election more than anything, except perhaps GWB.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 17 of 19
1 … 16 17 18 19