Turnbull 45, Nelson 41

As most of you would be aware by now, Malcolm Turnbull has won the Liberal leadership after defeating Brendan Nelson 45 votes to 41. Nelson won the post-election vote 45 votes to 42: not sure where the missing vote went (UPDATE: Kevin Andrews was overseas and didn’t vote – hat-tip to Dovif in comments).

Also:

• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead back at 58-42 after a fortnight at 59-41. Also included are questions on approval of Kevin Rudd, the future of the Coalition and federalism.

Peter Brent asks what became of the government’s green paper on disclosure, funding and expenditure issues, which was due in July.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published comments on objections to the redistribution of Western Australian electorates.

Bryan’s back.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Turnbull 45, Nelson 41”

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  1. albertross and herein lies the problem for Turnbull. The close vote today has sent the conservatives on this site into a spin. The tory bloggers don’t seem at all confident that the close vote today heralds good news for the Liberal Party, there was even disgruntlement that the vote was declared publicly.

    They backpeddled once they realised that the Republican issue has once again been opened up. What would have been expected to be a day of great joy for Liberals everywhere seems to have slipped into a muted response of fear and dread. Interesting times to say the least.

  2. Maybe ruawake. but perhaps he’s getting rid of the whole “millionaire” thing now when it doesn’t matter. There will be debate about who’s got more, Rudd or Mal for awhile and that will pass, but you can bet the underlying impression will be one of that, he’s a self made millionaire (kinda handy in current economic climes) and whilst Rudd’s rich as well, his “wife” did that(so, we’re both rich, but I made mine)

    Nice way to spend the first few cycles, neutralising a big image problem right from the get go

  3. No 150

    How are you privileged just because you lived in a fancy suburb, which is the flaky basis of your pathetic criticism of Turnbull?

  4. RU, I see it as significant that he chose to talk about his “deprived” (cough) background as one of his first lines of speech upon becoming leader. Here’s the millionaire ex-banker, Australia’s richest pollie, hastening to inform all and sundry he’s of “humble” origins. Why would he do that? Polling telling him he’s got an image relate-ability problem perhaps?

  5. If Malcolm is comfortable with his wealth and position in life, why is he trying so desperately hard to prove he isn’t a “silvertail”.

  6. No 152

    That is a matter of opinion. My argument is that one should not be so arrogantly pathetic to criticise a parent’s sacrifice for their child’s education.

  7. GP – during most of his time at Grammar the school was something of a paedogogic backwater and not all that expensive. Trumbull’s pater sent him there because it took borders and was unlikely to turn him into a poove like most of the other eastern suburbs private schools.

  8. Western Suburbs’ professionals enjoying a combined household income of $150K? Aspirationals.

    Millionaire merchant bankers? Battlers.

    The homeless, the poor, the victims of entrenched unemployment and disadvantage? Losers.

    The New Australia. (Thanks John.)

  9. Harry S-O

    Your gravatar shows on my screen as some little weightlifter thingy or something with raised shoulders etc… if that helps

  10. Marilyn on Samantha Maiden’s blog said it well in her take on Turnbull’s deprived childhood.

    [The “flat” on the North Shore was richer than anything I had ever lived in during my life and richer than anything I ever will so who is he kidding.

    He is richer than croesus and the last “flat” he stayed in was owned by Lucy to whom he paid rent out of his travel allowance. It might have been legal but what a rort.

    Malcolm is as mad as a hatter and is also a fraud. When he said that Howard broke the nations heart over the republic, why then did he join Howard?

    He always sounds belligerent and bullying no matter what he is talking about and it is really off putting. ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/force_of_nature_promises_a_wild_ride/

  11. GP,

    I don’t criticise any parent doing what they think is right for their children. However, I often think that it is more about the parents than the kids. It is just that a Private School Education is not something that I think is actually that useful or cost effective in the long run.

  12. If Malcolm is comfortable with his wealth and position in life, why is he trying so desperately hard to prove he isn’t a “silvertail”.

    Because he knows that he is perceived that way in the voters minds and it’s a negative… jesus can’t blame the guy for trying to negate that… ffs, I would be worried about him if he didn’t!

  13. GP,

    “Marilyn is a heinously misguided hack who frequently trolls the Australian’s boards”.

    And, you are…………

  14. GP – stick to the substantive questions… you are now in favour of non-discrimination against same-sex couples and the Republic. Or not?

  15. I’m expecting Labor to work hard on this perception of Turnbull, and by extension, the Fibs, as being out of touch, elitist etc. Coupled with a good IR scare going into the election, conjuring up images of wealthy employers ripping off emasculated workers, it could be quite effective.

  16. No 172

    I am a monarchist, as you know.

    I have no problem with removing legal discrimination against same sex couples, but staunchly and steadfastly believe that marriage is between men and women only.

  17. btw, if Marilyn is the one I read all over the place on various Oz blogs, I’m surprised she didn’t get Iraq, children overboard and SievX in there

    She usually does

    Crank….it’s a terrible drug

  18. Spam Inbox,

    The electorate sees a phony a mile off. Turnbull, for good or bad is what he is. Many Australians will actually admire the self made man “shtick”. Trying to prove he is a “good bloke” or a common man just ain’t gonna cut the mustard.

    If he doesn’t know who he is, why should the voters trust his judgement?

  19. I hope Turnbull doesn’t move the Liberal Party away from the traditional values set by Menzies and Howard. The Liberal Party must stay with the Howard and Menzies legacy to remain a competitive force.

  20. The republic won’t be what does for Turnbull, not unless the Liberal Right really are determined that getting rid of him is more important than winning (in which case he’s probably stuffed, anyway).

    After all, if Rudd actually gets around to organising a vote on the republic, Turnbull will just make it a conscience vote for the Libs, like Howard did in 99.

  21. No 166

    And if you’re a parent, I respect your choice not to send your child to a private school. Just don’t start saying he’s a useless toff because he went to a private school, when many parents of modest wealth often make the sacrifice.

  22. [Marilyn is a heinously misguided hack}

    168, is that because she has a different opinion and political leaning to you or is there some other reason you would say something like that?

    Something we are unaware of, is she one of those dreaded commo’s maybe?

  23. I do in fact think there is a lot of substance in Trambell. His academic record is robust. He has a solid business resume (- the only real skeleton at the moment being HIH and the jury is not sworn in on that matter yet). His defence of freedom of speech is on the record. He is not out of the standard Liberal mould.

    I give him 13 months.

  24. No 181

    Her political leaning is so much the issue as her intent to make every single article written at the Australian about how bad the Liberal party is. It is despicable.

  25. “…many parents of modest wealth often make the sacrifice.”

    Are you saying that people who send their children to state schools don’t make sacrifices for the children, GP? A weird argument that is repeated by supporters of private schools without thought.

  26. The one thing that Malcolm should never be forgiven for is the way that he sabotaged the Republican Referendum. He pushed for the model that Howard was willing to accept with an appointed rather than directly elected Head of State. It was well known that this was the model least likely to be accepted by the Australian people, and he pushed it anyway. The vote was not against a Republic per se, it was against what many saw as a flawed model. People wanted it, but it had to be done right.

    Ok, thats ancient history now, but what does it say about Malcolm?

    Either he really wanted a Republic and he showed massivley flawed judgment in achiveing that end that, which apparently was so dear to his heart.

    Or he really didnt want it at all and his role was as inside spoiler.

    Or maybe, he is just one of those who wants it all his way or no way, and bugger everyone else.

    Not good qualities in a potential PM in a democracy.

  27. Honest John,

    I think alot of Liberal members have formed the view that Malcom T is a complete and utter banker.

    Incidently, did anyone just watch Two Men and a Dinghy?

    It was sheer bloody poetry

  28. [The Liberal Party must stay with the Howard and Menzies legacy to remain a competitive force.]

    Forward and onwards to the 50’s. Yeah, that’ll do it!

  29. albertross,
    I agree with most of what you say, though I think Turnbull’s political judgment may be questionable.
    13 months sounds about right to me.

  30. [her intent to make every single article written at the Australian about how bad the Liberal party is.]

    Did it ever occur to you that she might be right?

  31. Sadly, Brendan Nelson will soon join his former leader as a Menzies’ Certified Forgotten Person. Still, there’s a couple of cosy seats up the back in the writers’ reserve (if he’s game to share pencils with a deluded egotist).

    Did no one consider Christopher Pyne?

    (It could’ve been fun. School kids could have learnt his accent!)

  32. Turnbull’s political judgment may be questionable.

    Sure is. He isn’t in the ALP. It’s actually his natural home. Just like many in the ALP should be in the Liberal Party. Jacinta Collins for starters.

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