Turnbull 45, Nelson 41

As most of you would be aware by now, Malcolm Turnbull has won the Liberal leadership after defeating Brendan Nelson 45 votes to 41. Nelson won the post-election vote 45 votes to 42: not sure where the missing vote went (UPDATE: Kevin Andrews was overseas and didn’t vote – hat-tip to Dovif in comments).

Also:

• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead back at 58-42 after a fortnight at 59-41. Also included are questions on approval of Kevin Rudd, the future of the Coalition and federalism.

• Peter Brent asks what became of the government’s green paper on disclosure, funding and expenditure issues, which was due in July.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published comments on objections to the redistribution of Western Australian electorates.

• Bryan’s back.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Turnbull 45, Nelson 41”

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  1. [ The Coalition vote, according to Newspoll, is stuck at about 37 per cent, five percentage points less than it received at the previous election.

    Nelson is preferred as prime minister by only 16 per cent of voters. That’s pretty much down to the die-hard group of conservatives who would rather cut off their right arm than express a preference for Kevin Rudd. ]

    I wonder if Turnbull can get the Lib PPM up to the 37% base support. There should be no way that he can reach Nelson’s 7% PPM figure. Or is there?

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24336685-5017906,00.html

  2. Oh well now we will have to get used to the murdoch pushing Turnbull as the Messiah for the next six months or will they sulk because their boy Costello will not play in the sandpit ………………. or will he? cue scary music.

  4. Probably a “dead cat” bounce.

    Something that intrigued me this afternoon was that Bob Brown was a prominent member of the audience at Costello’s Press Club book launch.

    Maybe he is planning to write his memoirs while still in the Parliament like Costello and wanted to get a few pointers as to how to go about the publicity side of it?

  5. Dario @ 74

    No, the Libs and Nats were leading in primaries in all the seats they won and so would have won in first past the post. However, there weren’t many seats with three cornered contests, and all of them appeared (from a glance) to be VERY conservative seats (such as O’Connor where Tuckey had 45% of the primary and only needed a small slice of Nats preferences to win).

    The one seat where the Nats could potentially in future benefit from preference flows would be Kennedy. If the ALP played dead and preferenced the Nats, they could easily roll Katter.

    Daniel B @ 84

    I tend to think US politics is more conservative because of all the bat-shit crazy evangelicals living there.

    Glen @ 94

    I wonder if you might change your tune if the Family First vote ever picks up? Of course, were it not for 2PP, the Libs would not have picked up Morley last weekend.

    IMO 2PP is the most democratic system available, and something Australians should be proud of.

  6. Scorpio,

    Spears and his sidekick were both in the press gallery this afternoon until about 2:40pm …… was a bit surprised to see so many media there (well given the events of the day, perhaps not) but I think that Costello probably was looking at a lot of empty chairs today at the NPC as I counted (at the height of QT) about 4 dozen folks in the press gallery.

  7. Latest idiot poll from ninemsn:

    Will having Turnbull as Liberal leader change your vote?

    Yes 16601 (28%)
    No 41888 (72%)

    Change your vote to what exactly?

    Stupid ninemsn, makes me so cross. Must change my homepage.

  8. No 99

    David Speers is peerless. A great young journalist. Certainly better than the piffle coming from the likes of commies David Marr, Phillip Adams or Alan Ramsey.

  9. There will always be a religious conservative vote, One Nation enlarged this for a while but it has subsided to become FF and CDP.

    They are entitled to vote and preference whom ever they like. Just as everyone else is.

    If we had a first past the post system we would have two parties, maybe a third minor.

    At least in our system you can vote 1 for the guys you really want and 2 for the guys or gals who have a chance of being elected.

    Surely this is the better way to go?

  10. Actually, ruawake, I doubt if One Nation appealed to too many Christians (outside of Qld anyway).
    CDP was around before One Nation, and will, in my opion, be around well after FF is gone.

  14. Well, what a day in paradise, fellow bludgers. A day when as H.G. Nelson might say, too much politics isn’t nearly enough Next lot of polls will be interesting n’est ce pas?

  17. Even though Turnbull will be better than Nelson, I’m not convinced he’ll be all that great.
    Apart from anything else he’s a bit of a typical barrister – likes winning arguments (or trying to do so) for the sake of it. Not what the public seems to want out of its political leaders these days.
    I think I might get some money on J Bishop to lead the Libs to the next election – Malcolm’s been forced to make his run too early I’d say.

  18. GP

    You use the term often but I would like to hear your definition in a contemporary Australian context?

    Or are you talking of a Menzies era??

  19. dyno @ 112,

    [Didn’t Hawke cry too?]

    Sure did, but not from memory when he lost the leadership.

    Granted, he wasn’t terribly pleased about it at the time.

  20. Put it this way, ruawake, I know a lot of Christians (being one myself). Amongst the Christians I know ON has aroused by far the most strident views – against it, of course.
    I’d say the phenomenon you refer to is coincidence.
    One caveat though: it could be different in Qld!

  23. “Amongst the Christians I know ON has aroused by far the most strident views – against it, of course.”

    To clarify this comment – ON has aroused far more strident views (anti) than any other party has.

  24. [Didn’t Hawke cry too?
    Or does it only matter when Liberals do it?]

    At least Hawke was PM for quite some time. What is Nelson crying about? 10 months flailing about as Opp leader???

  26. # 123 Dyno,
    “To clarify this comment – ON has aroused far more strident views (anti) than any other party has.”
    I am certainly pleased to hear that

  27. I don’t think it will take that long, Dyno. Harry, I think you will appreciate this.

    {“Never mind all that stuff about the so-called roosters; when they chose Latham, the turkeys voted for Christmas,” one Labor man said.

    It’s hard to imagine the same conclusion from today’s vote – although that’s not to say that Turnbull’s leadership is not expected to deliver some of the wild highs and lows that was Latham’s signature. The pair share certain characteristics, a touch of brilliance, strong performances in parliament and some fatal character flaws. Like Latham, history may still judge Turnbull came to the leadership too early.

    Turnbull surprised some observers today with his own log cabin story to rival Mr Latham’s pitch, dismissing suggestions he is a silver tail with talk of growing up in a single parent family and in “rented flats”. ]

    And Abbott’s take on Turnbull.

    [It was another leadership aspirant Abbott who perhaps was put it best when he described the millionaire MP last year as a force of nature.

    “Well, I’m saying that Malcolm is Malcolm,” he said.

    “And Malcolm is a primal force of nature, someone once said. And things will be interesting under Malcolm.” ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/force_of_nature_promises_a_wild_ride/

  28. runawake and dyno

    Having lived in Queesnland all my life I can fairly confidently say that religion doesn’t seem to factor in the politics here, particularly at the state level.

    The CDP have been around in Queensland for a lot longer than One Nation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if most Queenslander’s didn’t even know they existed. Family First were thrashed by the Greens in almost seat they both ran in at the last election (and Family First only ran in the most conservative of areas).

    The One Nation rise here seemed to be much less about the “Christian politics” thing and much much more about the “I don’t like them Asians” thing. Of course, this was dressed up as “dissatisfaction with the major parties.” Their vote has not gone to Family First at all, instead its just gone straight back to the Nationals, with the exception of Dorothy Pratt (former One Nation from Joh country) and Rosa Lee Long, who both still comfortably hold their seats.

  30. Scorpio, did enjoy that. Did you see the 4 Corners segment on Turnbull? He might just need that barrister/bovver boy characteristic of bullying people into submission within the LNP, if he is to prevail for any length of time. However, where I’d like to be a fly on the wall, is a confrontation between Malcolm in full flight and Mesmerelda. Who’d blink first? Sniggle.

  31. Abbott may well be correct about Turnbull being a “force of nature”. He’s been described as a volcano. I suppose that means he’s liable to erupt at the drop of a hat?

    But I wanted to comment, not on Turnbull, but on Abbott. Seriously, what is the guy still doing there? His best days (Cabinet minister) are behind him, he’s been in parliament since the Year Dot. What has he got to contribute? He’s unlikely ever to become Liberal leader (and god help them all should it ever happen).

    I get the feeling he’s just seat warming, “doing” politics because there’s nothing else he ~can~ do. Stuck in a rut much? He should do a Downer, get out with some dignity intact. His departure would help the Liberals too with their wish for “clear air”: he just serves as a constant reminder of the spiteful failed old Howard era.

  33. Cuppa,

    I’m pretty sure Abbott sees himself totally as a career politician – he’s been in politics (firstly of the student variety) since he was about twenty I think.

    I don’t think his inability to ever be leader will stop him wanting to be in politics.

    He’s actually not that old (about 50 I think). So it’s conceivable (sort of) that he could yet become a Cabinet Minister again.

  34. Glen

    If Ms Mesmer wants to be shadow treasurer its her for the taking, as deputy dawg she gets to choose.

    She let Malcolm have the job before – and thought she would take on Julia, bad move.

    Ms Mesmer will be the next shadow treasurer. Did you see her and Robb today, they would not look at each other and sat cross legged as far apart as possible.

    🙂

  35. ruawake #118

    I hope you were standing to attention when you typed THE GREAT MAN’S name. Otherwise you know who will be getting your communist tendencies noted in your ASIO file.

  36. ruawake,

    I have been to Gympie but have thankfully repressed much of this from my memory.

    To be absolutely honest, I cannot state with any certainty how much an individual member’s Christian credentials might come into play in an individual (and particualrly rural) seat. But Christian credentials certainly aren’t something that come into play in the larger scheme of things.

    Being that I am currently residing in the seat of one Ms Anna Bligh, religion certainly hasn’t been an issue. I have previously been in seats held by both Peter Beattie and Mike “Waste of Space” Horan. Religion wasn’t an issue in either of those seats as well.

  37. Turnbull has had careerrs as a journalist, lawyer, banker and now politician. All these professions rank near the bottom re trustworthiness in all the surveys about various professions.

    He also managed to screw up the Republican Referendum despite most people being broadly in favour of same.

    He is now the new Messiah for the Libs?

    Smoking and inhaling comes to mind.

  38. Cuppa, I think dyno’s right. I doubt Abbott would know what else to do other than politics. Costello may have had some fantasy about being welcomed with flowers and pots of money into the big wide world of finance, though that’s come to nought, it would seem, and really the way the big wide world of finance is travelling these days, maybe he’d be too scared to jump ship? But Abbott, what’s he going to fantasize about? Being feted to join the Cistercians with a hair shirt and small cell?

  40. Fair enough guys, that’s what I assumed: he’s there because politics is the only thing he can do. Oh well, as long as the voters in his electorate are happy with the work he does for them.

    Still, he is a visible and audible reminder of the nasty Howard years. By that I mean he’s always in the media … still! I can’t see how he does the Liberals any good in acquiring new voters. His net sum gain would have to be neutral or negative.

  41. Oh dear the Talcum myth explodes from his own mouth. My father struggled to send me, as a boarder, to Sydney Grammar and he struggled to pay the fees.

    So his battler, living in a small Vaucluse flat is crud, he lived as a boarder in St Ives and later in Darlinghurst.

    He then went to Uni (fee free – thanks to Gough)

    Fool. 🙂

  45. Spam Inbox – you are right. However, he was too dopey not to follow Nifty’s advice and join the ALP.

    There’s a point how long is it since we have had a Federal Liberal Opposition Leader who is more socially liberal than most ALP MPs replacing one who was once a member of the ALP?

  46. No 143

    Absolutely correct. Unlike the public school crusaders, most parents value the best education they can provide for their children. If that includes mortgaging the house or taking a second job to send their kid to a private school, then so be it. How dare faceless thugs condemn people for making that choice.

  47. True, Spam Inbox, he’s no fool. However, going on the attack on Labor about the U.S. banking woes as a diversionary tactic about the republic issue, is pretty predictable, I would have thought. As though anyone thinks U.S. banking ineptitude and incompetence has anything to do with the Fed. gov’t..

  49. William, I know it’s a stupid thing, but I still can’t get the gravatur to work on your blog, though it works on Possum’s. Is there some way in which rather than taking up space here, I could ask for help from Steve?

  50. GP

    I am a product of being a boarder at private schools, first King Edwards, Bath, England founded in 1552, then Canberra Grammar. I had a privelidged background.

    The point is Turnbull tried at his presser to dispel the obvious fact that he came from a privelidged background. That is why he is a fool.

    Why pretend to be something you are not?

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