WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)

The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.

The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.

Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:

Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.

Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.

Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.

And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.

With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).

For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.

However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.

Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

449 comments on “WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)”

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  1. So that explains the stories on WAToday on Kingsley & Ocean Reef – I wonder if Fairfax had an inkling before they wrote the stories ?

  2. Out of those 5 seats, most really are ‘Liberal’ type seats. Albany, Ocean Reef, Riverton and Kingsley would normally be won by a half-decent Liberal Party. The question is whether the 7% swing is being repeated in seats such as Mt Lawley, Southern River, Wanneroo etc. Hopefully one of the upcoming polls will shed light on this.

    Once again, does anyone know when most people decide who to vote for? I remember reading that the vast majority of people have already decided the day before election day. WIll the westpoll on saturday have any impact?

  4. Today’s mailbox in Darling Range:-

    One from Greens Senator Rachel Siewert. Points raised, dental health care, ageing and junk food.

    Three from Labor. One personally addressed letter (to Mrs Bogan) from Lisa Griffiths, same as I got late last week. One glossy A4 sheet on which a variety of political, professional and community figures extol Ms Griffiths’ virtues. One glossy anti-nuke flyer with Labor not mentioned anywhere (but authorised by Bill Johnston).

    Nothing from the Libs, which vaguely surprises me.

  5. Mount Lawley:
    1. Letter from Lib senator
    2. Letter from local Lib
    3. 8 A3 page brochure from local Lib

    We got a big brochure from Labor on weekend.

  6. With a result that close it will be interesting to watch the upper-house vote

    This is the first election with the weighted Gregory transfer system, although it still retains the flawed system of distributing excluded candidates’ vote preferences.

    Preliminary review of the Queensland Senate results are indicating that under a reiterative counting system the Greens could have been elected instead of an ALP third spot.

    This analysis needs confirmation and I am told the JSEM has requested a report from the AEC.

    Antony Green wrote an excellent review of the “Hypothetical” in relation to the Victorian Senate result which highlighted the need for value weighted Transfer System as WA has now adopted. (Thanks)

    Hopefully Antony can do further analysis on the Queensland result and calculate the result by excluding all other candidates except the ALP and LAPtop three and the Greens number one candidate and distributing the vote as though the excluded candidates had not stood.

    Does anyone know if WA will be data-entering in the preferences and if the preference data will be published?

    Hopefully they will be publishing the upper-house polling place results and avoid the disastrous mistakes made in the 2006 Victorian State Election.

  7. Maybe Labor has done so much pre-emptive leaking to “manage expectations” that it no longer works, ie people understand leaked polling is intended to create a perception (that Labor may lose) that people discount it as counterintuitive.

    If that’s the case the correct spin would be for Carpenter to come out and say he is confident of a strong win.

  9. Question: Will the WA electoral Commission be publishing statistics on the number of daily statical account of Postal/pre-poll issues/returned before the close of the polls? This information provides a good indication of how the marginals might pan out. If as William has indicated the Government may have a one seat majority the swing in the pivot seats may be greater then the average as the parties will be fighting hardest in these seats. The postal/pre-polls can give a clue to what’s happening on the ground.

  10. ESJ (257) – Unfortunately most of the great unwashed are not politically sophisticated enough to know when they are being manipulated. That’s why all major political parties employ spin doctors to such great effect.

  12. I note these comments frmo Matt Birney, and note Paul Armstrong’s statement.

    DAVID WEBER: Meanwhile, a former leader, Matt Birney, has said he believed many people still didn’t know who they’d be voting for.

    MATT BIRNEY: Look, it’s been a very lacklustre election, it’s been a very sort of under the radar affair, and I think on Saturday voters are going to be genuinely confused about what they should do because there’s nothing that’s really pushing their buttons on either side at the moment.

    DAVID WEBER: Mr Birney has also commented on the election coverage of the state’s main daily newspaper.

    Mr Birney was on radio station 6PR.

    MATT BIRNEY: Oh look, I think that the Liberal Party has certainly been aided and abetted by The West Australian newspaper and more power to them, I say good on you guys, keep it up!

    RADIO HOST: So some of the reporting has been pro-Liberal do you think or specifically anti-Labor?

    MATT BIRNEY: Oh look, I think there are probably a few personality clashes going on within The West Australian newspaper and senior levels of the Labor Party and it would appear some of those personality clashes are being played out in the pages of The West Australian newspaper.

    DAVID WEBER: Mr Birney went on to say that reporters at The West Australian tended to be smarter than those at other media organisations. He said they were very good at getting stuck into people that they’ve had clashes with over time.

    In a statement, the editor of The West Australian, Paul Armstrong, said he agreed that reporters at The West were smarter than those at other media outlets.

    He said nothing about Mr Birney’s claim that the newspaper has been aiding and abetting the Liberal Party in its coverage.

    MARK COLVIN: David Weber.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2353719.htm

  14. A shift in votes in the last week is not a new phenomenon. There is compelling evidence that it happened in the 2007 Federal election – a swing back to the Libs from polls showing around 55-45 a week before.

    However, it is more an issue of voters making up their minds rather than changing them.

    Few of the polls have published their “undecided” figures but I believe they are running at 10%+ which is high at this stage of the campaign. It says the election is still to be won (or lost).

  15. Seems rather erratic – this sea-sawing – with the polls. I thought you’d just get a larger number of undecideds. And not what “appears” to be uming and awing going on….

  18. Question: We all know parties do expectations management, but do betting agencies do it? When we are told an agency took a bet of $x for either party, do we know this is the truth? Are the betting agencies allowed to lie?

  19. Simon @ 266

    “Undecideds” aren’t factored in, they are simply excluded. Which means pollsters assume their vote will similarly distributed to who gave their voting intention. To do ortherwise would be just guesswork.

  21. 205 and 213. The polling place results are a good early indicator. Assuming that they are more or less the same collector district as before if you compare the first 3 booths or 10% of the vote should give you an indication of the comparative swing early on the night. Remember you must compare only those booths with the same booths that you have recorded on the night information.

    Using this method along with local knowledge I was able to declare the results for Melbourne State seat much earlier then anyone else.

    Robert Ray was a master at this sort of analysis and early picks.

    Polling place results are fundamental as is information on the number of postal and pre-poll votes issued before the election along with the returns.

    Sadly in the past this crucial information has been left unpublished and scrutineers often left in the dark as bundles of votes seem to appear from no where unexpected and not properly accounted for. Victoria 2006 is a good example of the problems that can arise by not maintaining a open and transparent electoral process. Information and statistical data provided in a timely fashion is a MUST, even more so as we begin to adopt a computerised counting system. Three months after the election is unacceptable and can not be justified.

    We should know how many postal and pre-poll votes have been issued before election day.

    We should daily how many postal and pre-poll votes have been returned.

    All pre-poll votes should be received back before election day.

    We should know on election night or at the latest the day after the number of absentee and section votes issued which should all be accounted for.

    Ideally we should also know how many ballots were issued, used, unused and returned also.

    We should also have certified copies of the data-entry preference data published prior to the calculation of the results and the declaration of the poll.

    *** NOT THREE MONTHS AFTER THE ELECTION HAS BEEN DECLARED ***.

    The above information should be published on the Electoral Commission’s web site as the information becomes available.

    This information is essential in the proper scrutiny of the ballot and will play a significant roll should the result be close.delay in the publication of this information only brings the system into question. The commission should have nothing to hide by maintaining an open and transparent electoral process.

    We MUST avoid the mistakes of the Victorian 2006 state Election

  22. Newspoll just called me for a Poll being released on Friday in The Australian.

    Was the basic party questions and how committed I was to my selection. The only non-standard question was on Uranium mining. “Do you support a ban on uranium mining in Western Australia”, it might have had reference to Alan Carpenter “Do you support Alan Carpenter’s ban on uranium mining in WA” not sure…and it was only 3 minutes ago!

  23. 268 Edward StJohn Betting agencies are not in the business of losing money. They have highly paid actuaries calculating the odds and on most case they hedge their bets. Its like betting on black or red on the roulette table and occasionally going down into the numbers for individual seat. the odds chsnge on a daily basis depending on the campaign and the amount they stand to lose in the worst case scenario.

    I guess they could try and fix the results and have as much chance as influencing the outcome as the media do.

  24. Steve – sorry about the abrupt response @ 249. Possum put it much better.
    But you are right that the Essential guys did the MUA dispute – and the anti-Workchoices campaign.

  25. Abit hard to comment on unseen polls of just 5 marginals that may swing more than th rest

    In any event at face value figures hav conflicts Firstly Primarys Labor 34/48 seems to big a drop in such a short term , secondly Carpenter prefferred 46/37 is aliit,e inconsistent with 34/48 , Thidly Greens votes would hav been expected to increase relative to last electon other Partys anyway & likely increase further based on such a low Laborr vote yet 2PP on those ‘leaked’ figures allows all prefs split to Labor of 60% which seems inconsistent with “leaked” primary figures , and certainly inconsistent with what a State wide poll would be likely

  29. Clearly Liberal insiders can’t see Barnett getting over the wire – otherwise the $3.50 on offer at Centrebet would be snapped up.
    Odds of 5/2 in a two horse race is enormous!
    Williams analysis and prediction, although still a Labor win (just), demands a much shorter price for Barnett.

    For the betting man, probability is the key here. Take the $3.50 for the Libs and if Labor blows to $1.50 (still Bernborough odds) make your Dutch book and pocket a tidy 5% in four days.

    Or do the backroom Libs know better than William – that Barnett truly does deserve his long price.

  31. William.What are the odds that who ever wins the election represents a minority of the overall electorate? To what extent does the “gerrymander” come into play in WA?

    Does any one have stats showing if the Marginal Seats swing is less more or the same as the average state. It pays to do a comparison with past elections including the Federal Election to determine the magnitude and direction of the likely swing.

    A seat that swung heavily last election may not have the same momentum as one that moved slightly. Barometric bench mark is a good reference point to consider at this stage of the campaign.

  33. I’m surprised Bunbury wasn’t polled – especially after the scuttlebutt I heard at the ALP launch where John Castrilli and Steve Thomas were reportedly seen at the Football “Crying In Their Beers”.

  34. SeanofPerth I think it also prevents editorial comments on the election outcome also.

    Not anymore – hasn’t been for some years

  35. bryce (279)

    I think it’s more likely it would be the ALP insiders who would be snapping up the juicy odds. If you see any of them backing the Libs you can put your house on it.

  37. This is from a 1993 ACMA Media Release and I’m assuming it is still in force today.

    Three day election blackout for WA broadcasters

    The ABA today advised the Western Australian broadcasting industry and the SBS of the blackout on election advertising which starts at midnight on Wednesday 3 February.

    The blackout will apply until close of polling for the state election on Saturday, 6 February and means broadcasters are not permitted to air political ads.

    The ban does not prohibit news or current affairs coverage of the election, discussion of political issues on talk-back radio or interviews with candidates.

    The ban is a requirement of recently passed amendments to the Broadcasting Services Act 1992.

    “These amendments simply continue a practice in place for many years which gives voters respite from political ads in the last few days before polling day,” said Ms Debra Richards, ABA Director of Programs.

    The old Broadcasting Act 1942 imposed similar restrictions on broadcasters to give voters the opportunity to reflect on their voting choice in an atmosphere free from advertising.

    Because the Broadcasting Services Act 1992 has introduced new service categories, such as subscription narrowcasters and broadcasters, provisions have been inserted so the blackout includes these operators.

    Industry organisations advised of the ban include: the Federation of Commercial Television Stations, the Federation of Australian Radio Broadcasters, the Progressive Radio Association, the Community Broadcasting Association of Australia, the Federation of Australian Narrowcasters, the SBS.

    Major political parties and electoral authorities have also been advised.

    http://www.acma.gov.au/WEB/STANDARD/1001/pc=PC_90271

  41. Frank that add in your #289 is an excellent politcal add , that would win votes as its a combined positive & negative add all in one Bracks used exactly same + & – add technique to cause Jeff Kennett’s surprise defeat Only counter is to use same + & – add technique back

  42. People have been voting at remote polls all this week in the Kimberley. The Aboriginal vote in these areas tends to be pretty solidly for Labor. However the word is that voter turnout has been down across the region by up to a third.

    I have also heard allegations that the electoral commission did not sufficiently advise some communities as to when they would be turning up and that some polling places also may not have had the usual ‘polling place’ signs up. Many people did not know the that they had to vote on the given day and were off doing other things.

    This will cost Labor several hundred votes, which would wipe out most of Carol Martin’s notional margin. I will leave it to others to draw any moral conclusions from this.

  43. I agree with Frank #289. Noticed that ad and thought it the most effective so far.

    My impression is that a lot of people are annoyed about issues that are essentially federal in origin. While much of this, if true, may be a hangover from the long years of the Howard government’s approach to dealing with state governments, federal Labor has not helped to date either.

    I get the sense that communication channels between WA Labor and Federal Labor are still nowhere near satisfactory to the state group. Working relationships between state and federal bureaucrats and politicians appear to be extremely ordinary to me. And that is being polite. It has been hurting for quite a while in areas of social policy where the state tends to be seen as the end service provider.

    Really, federal Labor should be a hot chance to pick up Kalgoorlie at the next election, but don’t appear to see it as a priority. What would the effort be worth? 5%? What is the margin? Why is it not a target?

    If Labor lose on Saturday, some attention should be focussed on the Rudd government and how well it is working with its state counterparts.

  44. Robert Taylor sounding a bit like Dennis Shanahan in reverse:

    Labor’s decision to release its own polling looked like an act of political desperation yesterday but the news wasn’t all bad for the Government.

    While the nightly tracking poll recorded an alarming drop to 45 per cent for the ALP from a high of 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis last Thursday night – the same night the last Westpoll gave Labor a 54 per cent vote – other key indicators remained very strong the Government.

    Foremost among them were the 55 per cent of people who believed the Liberal Party was not ready to govern. It’s hard to see those people walking into the booth on Saturday and voting for a party they don’t believe can be in government (Queensland 1995? Victoria 1999? – PB)

    There’s no doubt that Labor heavies are worried by the sudden drop in support. But there’s also no doubt they believe the election is still there to be won and that the raw primary vote figure can recover just as quickly as it dropped.

    Even on the figures released yesterday, Labor only has to improve by between 2 and 3 per cent (emphasis added) by polling day and it wins. That’s because after the one vote, one value redistribution, on paper at least, Labor enjoys a 17-seat majority.

    It’s surely stretching the elastic to say Labor would retain a majority from 47 or 48 per cent, unless they get very lucky.

    But the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory. And it showed that the new train line to Ellenbrook and the blatant scare campaign on uranium were working …

  45. I wonder if Robert Taylor and The West are really wanting a Labor Victory so they could continue to attack it – if the Libs Win, they’d suddenly won’t have anyone to pick on.

  46. Taylor is trying to debunk Labor’s polling. That is to say that it is still OK to give them a good kick if you want. But I suspect that it is really close.

  47. So let’s consider a Barnett win… He would be the senior Liberal in the land, and the other state and federal leaders would come to him for advice on how to defeat the ALP hegemony. Milne and Shanahan would write columns lauding his acumen and praising his fantastic new team… -Nah, sorry. I can suspend my disbelief only so far. It ain’t gonna happen.

    William’s one-seat win to Labor scenario sounds plausible, if pessimistic, and would certainly make things interesting. Shaving Labor’s margin to within a breath of government would make it hard for Barnett to do what he really wants to do, which is to wash his hands of all things politics, and get back to hugging his sheep. He’d almost have to commit to pushing on as Lib leader, praying for a by-election, maybe for another four years of herding the feral cats in his party room. I can’t ever see that sense of commitment on Colin’s face. He comes across as someone who doesn’t enjoy the cut and thrust of politics, at least as far as media relations go. He seems always on the point of petulantly throwing his policy notes in the air and storming off.

    The ALP is genuinely dismayed about what it sees in its polling of the 5 marginals, but its release of the figures is very much about countering headlines in the Worst Australian such as “Labor landslide” -a beat-up of a single poll result by a disreputable pollster. The West Australian’s reporting of the election has been abyssmal. Win or lose, I hope the ALP makes a detailed complaint to the Press Council about the slanted coverage.

  50. The Libs will celebrate across the country if Barnett wins. But if they do, Rudd should have a think about whether he wants more Liberal state governments to pop up or not and what he can do about it.

    If Carpenter wins he will have much greater authority than he has had to date.

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