WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)

The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.

The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.

Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:

Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.

Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.

Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.

And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.

With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).

For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.

However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.

Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

449 comments on “WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)”

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  1. “Robert Taylor sounding a bit like Dennis Shanahan in reverse”

    can you guarantee Robert Taylor and Dennis Shanahan ar not one and th same people

    That Robert Taylor commentary on that polling data and his other psephological
    “analysis” of current & past events , is quite unique , comapared to a Laurie Oakes or Michelle Grattan

  2. can you guarantee Robert Taylor and Dennis Shanahan ar not one and th same people

    Watch the Lateline Story and you’ll see Robert Taylor, he looks nothing like Sham a man 🙂

  3. Fair enough Frank , but “Sham a man” may hav assisted with that article , it was so ‘Dennis’….’spin’ narrative turning data upside down , except narrative was to Labor

    Please tell me Labor’s adds counter those excellent Liberal ones for th resons mentioned in #291

  5. Thanks for that Frank , my sense is that labor add in is no where near as good as Liberal one to catch swingers & undecided , nor as cuttingly focused

    By way , am going to sleep now but before doing so whilst you’re ‘live’ , tanks for all your wonderful feedback & data its been terific & sure all other non WA PB’s feel th same way , and also when WA election dust settles hope you actiively get into ‘oz’ thread , but leave US stuff alone unlike me as spent months research on it , but with ‘oz’ politcs you’d be a great welcome contributor mate and look after yourself

  9. Have just completed three online polling research for WA elections. Only one of the research had every question with the dot point starting with Liberal or Col “baby”. The other two alternated Lab and Lib as the first dot point in questions.

  10. Today Libs have vowed to kill the massive foreshore development
    http://theworstofperth.com/2008/02/14/decker-the-halls/
    which is interesting because it seemed to have a lot of support, despite being absolutely ridiculous. The Worst of Perth tried to get the Libs foreshore plans some months ago but was stonewalled.
    I wonder if the half arsed ferris wheel will get the boot too. If the libs win, at least my uranium shares will go up and there won’t be Swan island. There’s always a silver lining.

  11. Ok – in last night’s mailbag I received – nothing!
    However, this morning at my train station there was Ben Wyatt handing out his flyers (Oats St Station – heart of Vic Park).
    Nice young bloke, I might even vote for him if I were still in that electorate.

  13. If the Libs have killed the foreshore development, they’re doomed. Big, vulgar, glittery and expensive, it was perfect for Perth and likely to be hugely popular.

    This could be almost as big a mistake as getting BHP offside.

  14. It wasn’t just the Dubai-on-Swan proposal they want to can, but Alannah’s Notwork City policy. Those of us who’ve become interested in planning matters will be intrigued.

    Also, heard Bill Stewart (Carine Independent candidate) and Katie Hodson-Thomas (present Carine Liberal member) on radio this morning. I don’t think they were appearing together. Katie denounced Bill for standing as an Independent, saying he should have sought pre-selection if he’d wanted to stand for the seat. She was very angry – another good sign for Bill. I have heard that the Croation tax accountant who has no connection to the Carine electorate has connections to NCB and that other behind-the-scenes puppeteer, Troy Prickard. He is currently Mayor of Joondalup, pushing high-rise at their beaches, against the wishes of the community and was formerly elected as a Coastal Ward councillor at the City of Stirling on a non-high rise platform, then voted it in. Bill Stewart was also Coast Ward councillor at same time and there’s no love lost there. (SNIP: No personal scuttlebutt please – PB). Along with what others have heard, the Liberals might well lose Carine, but Bill Stewart has said that he will support the Liberals.

  16. Regional WA voters will reach the crossroads when they vote on Saturday. Two big changes that have effected them enormously the one-vote one value redistribution seeing six regional seats abolished and eight created in the Metropolitan area and daylight saving. The ALP government enacted these changes but what did the Liberals do to stand up against them. The Liberals have always found popularity in regional WA after the 2005 defeat they chose in succession three Regional mps but when it came to the crunch of an impending election they chose a metropolitan leader once again. The Nationals are the only hope for Regional WA and due to the first of these changes they need former Regional ALP and Liberal Voters to help them regain party status in the Assembly and gain the balance of power in the council. At the 1974 Federal election the Nationals lost there last two Western Australian seats lets not let this happen on a state level.

  17. 315 Average Joe – Hodson-Thomas and Sue Walker in Nedlands were reported (in our accurate and reliable West Australian) to be disgusted with Troy Buswell and decided to resign from Parliament (Hodson-Thomas) and the Liberals (Walker). I have seen Walker in action in her community, but Hodson-Thomas has been absent in large parts of hers. When I sought her assistance on an issue some time ago, her electoral officer asked if me I realised that the boundaries were changing and that Hodson-Thomas wouldn’t be my member in future. So, even though she’s still my representative right up until Saturday, she has not been prepared to represent her community ever since they knew about re-shaping of Carine electorate (at least a year). Good riddance to her, I say, doesn’t matter whether the person is male or female – if they’re not doing a good job, they should go. How about politicians actually listening to and representing their communities, rather than what goes on in the party room, or am I being hopelessly naive?

  18. its politics – every preselection is political 🙂 Walker and Hudson-Thomas were both terrible local members, but that hasn’t stopped anyone before! Its like complaining about Johnston in Cannington. Of course he is going to be a terrible local member, but that doesn’t mean he won’t win.

  19. Buswell to reveal Costings.

    The Opposition Leader, Colin Barnett, will leave it to the Shadow Treasurer, Troy Buswell, to reveal the party’s election costings today, ensuring there will be no repeat of his bungle two days before the last election.

    The Labor Party is still highlighthing Mr Barnett’s costings blunder in 2005, when he refused to acknowledge a mistake in the Liberal Party’s figures.

    The Treasurer Eric Ripper has already attacked the Liberals for not submitting their costings to Treasury, even though he also used a private firm when he was in Opposition.

    There are only three days to go until the election.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2353845.htm

  20. From the totally unscientific Perth Now Poll.

    Poll Results

    Thanks for voting, here are the results so far:

    With just days before WA goes to the polls, who will win the 2008 State Election?
    Have your say on this story | Related story Read story now
    Previous poll results

    Labor
    37%
    Liberal
    50%
    I couldn’t care less
    12%
    Total votes
    Total of 386 votes

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/opinion/poll/

  22. Only Mail Item today was a personally addressed letter from Graham Giffard about Uranium Mining with a flyer which quotes Barnett in Hansard

  23. Helen the reason why Tony Krsticevic was pre selected is one he is closely linked with the Northern Alliance faction that is why he did not get rolled when Deidre wilmont was looking for a new seat
    And two He also controls the majority of branches in Carine basically he is the John D’orazio of the liberal party

  24. 323 southernboy – thanks for that, but who and what is the Northern Alliance? Is Liza Harvey is part of that too? I can’t understand why she wasn’t booted out for Deidre Wilmott. So, if Krsticevic controls Carine branches and wasn’t going to allow Bill Stewart to stand, then why is Hodson-Thomas ranting about Bill Stewart being a political opportunist and standing as an Independent? (Sorry, questions from a very ignorant but interested bystander)

  25. Northern Alliance is basically the golden triangle club + most people in the party in the 35->50 range who are politically ambitious. Run by Collier and Cormann.

    Liza Harvey wasn’t booted because that seat isn’t safe enough for someone of the caliber of Wilmott.

    Not sure what Hodson-Thomas is going on about – Bill Stewart had no hope of winning the preselection because he didn’t control the branches, so he went it alone.

  29. you are right Average Joe anyone who is willing to sell there soul and become loyal to the NA get a seat. unless your colin edwardes who is so unpopular in the party that Colleirs numbers in curtin voted against his will and voted for liz behjat the only one that is not one of there puppets that got pre selected in the northen suburbs

  30. Bill stewart is bascally liz constable 17 years ago wanted to becomean mp new she was not going to win preselection because of NCB ran and won.

  31. Carpenter defends releasing of internal polling.

    The Liberal Leader Colin Barnett says it is a pathetic stunt and he will not be fooled.

    “Oh look it’s a stunt, it’s Labor party so called secret polling released, I mean big deal its the third time they’ve done it this campaign, I don’t take it seriously,” he said.

    Mr Carpenter says the polling was the real deal and Labor would have lost, had the election been held on Monday.

    “Why would the people of WA support Mr Barnett with a group of people who have not done anything but fight amongst themselves for three and a half or four years,” he said.

    Mr Carpenter says he has a big challenge over the next three days to convince voters of Labor’s agenda.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2354571.htm

  33. Barnett’s response was inept , he did not nail his opinion of exactly why th polling was ‘leaked’ Then Carpenter has been given a free kick to further “explain”
    /caution swingers & undecided not to make a ‘protest’ vote Smart move by Carpenter Sat will tell if its enough

  34. FC: interesting piece at end of the piece is this:

    This entry was posted by Grace on Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008 at 8:56 am and is filed under General, Politics, Opinion, Paul Murray. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

    Follow responses to this post using the RSS 2.0 feed.

    I think Mr Murray’s wife is called Grace!

  35. I think Mr Murray’s wife is called Grace!

    And it can be confirmed via tracing the IP address 🙂

    If so, it makes a mockery of Paul Murayy’s credibility – hang on, he hasn’t any to start with 🙂

  47. Liberal Costings have been released.

    The Liberal Party say their election promises will cost about $1.8 billion over and above already budgeted government spending in the next four years.

    Releasing the party’s costings today, treasury spokesman Troy Buswell said they provided a sound financial platform for the state.

    Labor has yet to release its costings but Treasurer Eric Ripper indicated earlier this week that the party’s promises were likely to cost about $2 billion over the same four-year period.

    More to come..

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberal-promises-costed-at-18-billion-20080903-48qe.html

  48. Putting my two bob on the election ads #291, I didn’t think the Liberals’ ads were that good. There is no single image or message that sticks in your mind after seeing it. Too many images and too many issues whizzing past. The only thing I can remember is Colin Barnett’s face. Is that going to move voters?

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