WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)

The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.

The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.

Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:

Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.

Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.

Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.

And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.

With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).

For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.

However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.

Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

449 comments on “WA election minus five days (Labor minus eight seats)”

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  1. I feel a cliffhanger coming on. Isn’t it exciting! I think lots of those currently saying they will vote Liberal might end up voting for a minor party and then Labor though. When is it that people are supposed to have made up their minds – isn’t it true that most people have decided by election day?

  2. I wonder which TV station will get the leaked data ? I reckon 7, as The West, the ABC and 7 are the 3 most popular media outlets in WA, oh and Radio 6PR.

  4. Whether the ALP wins or loses it is just not plausible that their vote has dropped a massive 7 percent in just a few days.

    What could possibly account for such an earth quake and why would the ALP be so eager to pass it on to the media?

    I wouldn’t be panicking yet folks. Let’s wait and see what the reputable polls have to say later in the week.

  5. For what it’s worth, my theory is that ALP polling is actually showing a very close election and they are deathly scared that a protest vote could see them lose by a small margin. They figure that by confronting the electorate with the real possibility that the Liberals might win by default, enough voters will back off to get the ALP over the line.

    Could be wrong, but that’s the kind of games they all play these days.

  7. The State ALP’s have been dominant for so long that they really cannot believe there is a prospect they could lose.

    It resembles nothing as much as the Federal Liberals last year.

    The ALP’s tactics with “releasing” polling is to hope people have just lost hold of their senses and just need to be shocked back into sensibility. As the Liberals discovered last year – when the mob takes a set against you its goodnight Irene.

  8. Its strange that the polls show people think ALP will win but aren’t voting for them. As anyone seen this trend in any other elections and what was the outcome??

  9. agree its implausible th vote dropped 7% in 4 days , also note th polling relates to th 5 specific marginal seats that Labor were tracking

    Presume Labor has internal polling in other close seats which was not disclosed , indicating other seatas swing is not as bad Also a wise political move to be underdog and cut down any ‘protest vote’

  10. Does anyone know where one can find 2PP results per booth for the 2005 election? ive tried looking on WAEC, ABC, adam carr and everywhere else.

    In particular looking for North West Coastal, (now north west) and the bits of Murchison-Eyre that are now in North West.

    I am trying to draw up the spreadsheet for election night results, currently I think the only person with the results might be Antony Green – so hopefully he reads this as I couldn’t find his email anywhere.

    Would be much appreciated if anyone can pass on the data.

  14. I have a few questions for anyone – if they think they have an answer 🙂

    Q: Have Labor showed any evidence of such a drop of support to the media? Last time (a week or so back) they didn’t seem to. Is this just a ploy to make things seem worse than they are? And would it work? Or might it be seen as a little too clever – and not make difference – whatever the real polling is. Seems to stem from some desperation – but maybe not THAT much desperation…

  15. Q: Have Labor showed any evidence of such a drop of support to the media? Last time (a week or so back) they didn’t seem to. Is this just a ploy to make things seem worse than they are? And would it work? Or might it be seen as a little too clever – and not make difference – whatever the real polling is. Seems to stem from some desperation – but maybe not THAT much desperation…

    Ch 10 News had vision of the polling.

  18. Geof Parry on Seven says the primary vote figures are Labor 34 per cent, Liberal 48 per cent.

    Yep, and my mug was in shot again 🙂

    Interesting about Carpenter being more popular than Barnett and it’s Swinging Voters.

  19. Being a long long way from WA, I am reluctant to draw conclusions about who’s likely to win or what the local issues are. But I do know a few general principles – 1. NEVER believe a political party that claims its polling shows it will lose. It’s only aimed at stemming a protest vote, and people only make protest votes when they’re very confident a government will be re-elected. The governments that really do get belted by a protest vote (Goss, Kennett and perhaps Greiner in his second election) don’t see it coming.

    2. NEVER believe a bookie who says there’s a lot of money coming for a particular party, unless that party’s odds fall dramatically. Clearly, the bookies are desperate to talk up the Libs, because most money has gone on Labor. A bookie’s aim is to make money, irrespective of whoever wins the election.

    An additional point…I do think, in these days of high petrol prices, that promises of new rail lines will be more appealing than usual to the voters. And Labor in WA has the extra advantage of having actually built a new rail line, so the voters might believe the new promises.

  21. I see you’ve covered my questions anyway – very interesting. And those figures William are extraordinary! I think that must be doctored a little. To claim the underdog status and scare just enough back to Labor (as has been pointed out here).

  25. Does anyone know which 5 marginals were polled? Maybe they were northern suburbs ones like Kingsley and Ocean reef. Still, the results seem to clash with the most recent Westpoll, which had Labor on 54% rather than the Libs on 55% – something’s amiss. Perhaps a strong Labor vote in safe seats…surely this would still not explain such a difference.

  26. It’s interesting to note that this story has been covered by all the media outlets with the exception of Perth Now & WAToday(Fairfax), but last time those 2 were included but Ch 10, and The West, and I think 9 were not.

  27. I could be wrong, but *every* single marginal seat poll over the past month has shown the Liberals well ahead.

    A poll on its own is next to meaningless. A set of polls over a period of time showing a similar trend is well worth taking note of.

    Labor’s in big trouble. Admit it.

  28. The one consistent piece of polling throughout the whole campaign is that the Liberals have been ahead in all the marginal seat polling with the exception of one seat which was even. If the marginal polling isn’t turned around by Saturday, Barnett wins.

  33. Mind you there is plenty of precedent for governments getting a late swing towards them and as I said a few days ago the Bill Hayden election where he led until The Australian had a headline about a swing back to the Government greeted him on election day.

  34. Michael Sutherland must think he is going to give Mt Lawley a real crack. I just crawled back home through various Mt Lawley suburbs and saw one of those hired single cab Hilux utes plastered in posters and pulling a trailer also plastered in posters. And even though it was quite dark, didn’t look like he was driving it. Seems like an awful lot of effort if it’s not going to be close…

  35. Unless I’m mistaken Labor’s poll would be tracking polling, which means they speak to about 100 people a day. The party analyses this by aggregating a few days’ worth of results, but they could present the media with a one-day rogue sample and still be telling the truth. Nonetheless, the talk of a trend trackable since Friday is intriguing.

  37. A-C (227)

    If you really believe the ALP is in big trouble you should be getting in touch with Sportingbet as quick as you can to snap up the easy money on offer. $3.40 is great odds for a sure thing, don’t you think?

    As for me, I’ll be keeping mine in my pocket until I see what the professional pollsters are saying later in the week.

    If the ALP is really trying to manipulate the electorate into believing they are going to lose, for tactical reasons, it is certainly working on the people on this site.

  38. Unless I’m mistaken Labor’s poll would be tracking polling, which means they speak to about 100 people a day. The party analyses this by aggregating a few days’ worth of results, but they could present the media with a one-day rogue sample and still be telling the truth. Nonetheless, the talk of a trend trackable since Friday is intriguing.

    I believe that is the case as mentioned on either Ch 10 or 9, with 10 showing the actual polling page, which was only a graph, with the top part of the age breakdown.

  39. Looks like being a late night on Saturday, esp for non-WA bludgers. Will there be the same Antony/William show as for the NT election?

  43. William,

    Did you record Kennedy’s Campaign Diary ? I know the ABC post video of the news stories, but they don’t post the Diary.

  44. Peter Kennedy’s “Campaign Diary” on ABC TV:

    Today’s ALP handout of dire polling figures is a first in one way, and a new variation of an old political trick in another. The last time Labor leaked bad polling it was looking for a circuit-breaker – for a way of getting the electorate to take notice. It still is. This time the party sees that voters think Labor is going to win and yet say they’re voting Liberal. The government still needs a circuit-breaker – what slightly different now is Labor’s naming the saets. The polling might look atrocious for the ALP, but remember it was only based on five seats – and one of them, Kingsley, had been notionally given away already, while another, Albany, was almost in the too-hard basket. That effectively leaves three, and that’s not enough to predict the political sky is falilng. So while this is interesting, it’s still a final week ploy we’ve seen before, an effort to crystalise opinion, to get voters to think. Selective polling can be spun any way you want really. At this stage of week four, the betting market’s hardly changed.

  46. If UMR reseach can turn the marginal polling around in the last few days, it will be money well spent by Labor to hire good professional advice.

  47. Steve -UMR and EMC are different mobs. Polling companies are a bit incestuous, and often sound the same (vowel – two consonants) , but those folks are different. UMR has been Labors pollster of choice for a long time, theyn use phone polls. EMC – the group that produce Essential Report use an online panel constructed by offline means.

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