Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

554 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. Ron
    been on the f3 for 2 hours listened to julie b whine about
    2 mates 1f,1m were on the flight and were quite appalled by the ABC coverage

    as i said nelson is the organ grinders puppet and the trollop has confirmed this with their “lindsay/kids overboard etc” type shite.

    f i’m angry. the msm are puppets

  2. Does anyone else think a DD might be on? The Coalition are a garbled mess, Fielding is a joke. It must be tempting. What do you think?
    Imo, if the U.S. votes for the McCain/Palin option this time round, we can all kiss our rear ends good bye, this being a duo (or those behind them) who variously think it’s a good idea to stay in Iraq forever, that invading Iraq is part of God’s plan, and seeking the support of people who think that blowing the planet to cinders is a really good idea, because they think this will bring about “the ecstasy” of the end. They’re certifiable. Unfortunately, not in our jurisdiction.

  3. They voted Bush back in so the American public are quite capable of voting for McCain/Palin. You would think anything to do with Republicans would be poison for them.

  4. I laughed myself silly when hearing that garbage from Mesmeralda about Nelson being “intimidated” by Ms. Neal. Whaaaaaat? Leetle emo- man having to be protected by big brave Mesmeralda? Funniest thing I’ve seen since last week’s Clarke and Daw.

  5. HSO,
    The key problem with a DD (from Rudd’s perspective) is the low quota it brings with it for Senate seats. The quota is 1/13 or 7.7% of the vote.
    All sorts of interesting people might become Senators.
    Agree with you that (right now) it seems a low-risk way to increase Labor’s HoR numbers.

  6. harry
    i withdraw unreservedley the term trollop. BUT the faux outrage almost burst my spleen, coupled with a calls on the mobile

    belinda neal is ballsy- no question about that,but the false and misplaced outrage caused my blood to boil

    what is most interesting is this comes out after dinner with El Rodente-gosh if this is the best post linton and the “faceless ones’ from PM’s then the fibs are truly gone.

    and good bloody riddance to the lot of em

  7. Gusface

    “as i said nelson is the organ grinders puppet and the trollop has confirmed this with their “lindsay/kids overboard etc” type shite.f i’m angry. the msm are puppets”

    Gus glad you’ve told is that as getting first hand proof of MSN manipulation
    is re affirmng what we do believe , nothing better than your friends seeing it in person Journo was Samantha Maiden so we know she just gets a Liberal party call to write a story without checking

  8. Gusface

    “as i said nelson is the organ grinders puppet and the tr.llop has confirmed this with their “lindsay/kids overboard etc” type shite.f i’m angry. the msm are puppets”

    Gus glad you’ve told is that as getting first hand proof of MSN manipulation
    is re affirmng what we do believe , nothing better than your friends seeing it in person Journo was Samantha Maiden so we know she just gets a Liberal party call to write a story without checking

  9. Harry

    If McCain drops dead leaving Palin as POTUS we are all going to be remembering with wistful fondness the presidency of Bush II. And that’s a very sad and scary thought/

  10. Sigh, Thomas Paine. Unfortunately, it’s just the same conversation I was having tonight with himself indoors. I guess we’ll see with the election result, but as we have seen in the previous century, it’s quite possible for whole countries to behave in quite mad ways. The U.S, under the current regime, have already done so, e.g., torture is O.K. when we do it, invasion is O.K. when we say our reasons are sufficient, e.g., Iraq. Won’t go on with the Australian equivalents as am tired.
    If the fundamentalists again gain control of the U.S., as front persons, or as puppets, do you have any thoughts about what might eventuate?

  11. Loved Swannies call in parliament…

    said that the Opposition liked fast cars, and baccardi breezers…. so the Opposition was being run by Robbie Williams lol

  12. Ron
    if mesmerelda or the monkey were so offended why not raise in parliament via various means

    this pure unadulterated msm pap

    be aware now its on the ABC TV news

  13. Probably worth bearing in mind that the only reason the Repubs are in this race at all is that they chose one of the least “Republican” Republicans to have emerged for decades: John McCain. Look at who he wanted for V-P – an ex-Democrat, says it all about his relationship to his own party.
    The only reason Palin and her ilk come into it is voluntary voting (and I guess the need to get campaign volunteers/money) – the Right, who dislike McCain quite a lot, had to be shored up, or they wouldn’t have showed up. (Of course, if he dies in office, the world will still be stuck with her, no matter why she got there).
    The Dems are going to wipe the floor in the House and Senate, and whoever’s President won’t be able to do much without an ok from Nancy Pelosi. (Pelosi’s power is not necessarily a reason to vote for Obama – who has a negligible legislative record – as opposed to McCain, who it would seem can deal with anyone, when the mood takes him).

  14. Wonder why the ABC actually waits for scenarios from their Liberal party masters – surely they are capable of inventing their own stories now.

    Well I guess they could be worse, the could be fully run by the OO.

  15. The fundy Christian Right are having multiple wet dreams over Palin. They can taste the power and are dreaming their dreams. If McCain wins they will be praying for his death quick smart.

  16. Watching Steve Fielding on Lateline, he really isn’t an intellectual heavyweight is he. At this point it is all looking a bit hopeless. Bring on the double dissolution – this guy is an idiot and won’t negotiate.

    You can see why Lindsay Tanner kept going back to the roll of the Libs in the Senate. Don’t think the ALP going to get much joy there though.

  17. “Ron if mesmerelda or the monkey were so offended why not raise in parliament ”

    Gus , may be easier to get in a cheap shot on MSN , imagine they complained about it in Parliament and Labor dorothy dixers starting coming up for Kevin to “comment” on….th poor dear Brenda being “protected” by mesmerelda

  18. Oh, and Fielding made a comment which Leigh Sales didn’t question. He claimed that in “the papers” today it was reported that Porsche, Maserati and Ferrari drivers would qualify for exemptions on the Luxury Car Tax. Does anyone know what he was going on about or have a link to the article/s he was referring to??

  19. [The fundy Christian Right are having multiple wet dreams over Palin.]

    It’s all a fraud. The insiders have let the cat out of the bag that she was a dud choice. Conventions mean little realistically in the scheme of things.

  20. [He claimed that in “the papers” today it was reported that Porsche, Maserati and Ferrari drivers would qualify for exemptions on the Luxury Car Tax.]

    Probably because some of them are fuel efficient, which was the Greens amendment to the bill. Cars with 7L/100km or better fuel efficiency would be exempt from the increase.

  21. Diogenes @ 460. Do you know the wonderful satirical songs of Tom Lehrer?
    I’ll write some of my own for William’s site in a wee while. It’s time to exit stage left from me. Sleep well, bludgers,

  22. Dario @ 472

    ahh right… I was almost motivated enough to go and find Porsches, Maseratis and Ferraris that had fuel efficiency that low, but I can’t be buggered really. I’ll just carry on thinking Fielding is a dithering tool and sleep happily.

    Thanks for the info though!

  23. ps
    left field but after reading the WA thread was mesmerelda motivated by WA interests (dog whistle anyone)

    ie rich leftie with attitude aka femo nazi ready to take away our maleness by being “macho” but the mesmerelda steps in to defend aussie manhood would this play to the sandgropers?

  24. Dyno
    “Obama – who has a negligible legislative record”
    That’s true , any thorough check of his legislature career confirms that Where I’m puzzled is your view that given that ‘record’ , lack of reel ‘left’ policys , questionable history & associations , a first term Senator & your thoughts on maverick ypu hav not supported maverick or would a VP Pawlenty or Crist hav swayed you (it would not hav altered my informal position incidently)

    Also must stay your #465 post (first & 3d paragraphs) would get LITTLE support on this site , however I agree with most of it particularly mavericks negotions history to get Bills passed Seems our diverge is on differential experience that can be again discussed

  25. consevative faction of Costello , Andews Abbott etc dislike Turnbull that much , they’d prefer to install ‘mesmerelda’ instead , not sure that will please you Gus but think the’d do if ifrather than toffyiness Malcolm

  26. Re DD:
    I have calculated the difference between House and Senate votes state by state and nationally. Below is the national table:
    House Senate Difference
    ALP 43.4 40.3 – 3.1
    Coalition 42.2 39.9 – 2.3
    Greens 7.8 9 +1.2
    Family First 2 1.6 – .4
    Others 4.6 9.2 +4.6

    The ALP loss was from .8 in WA and NT to 10 in the ACT. The Coalition loss was from .8 in Tasmania to 7.7 in SA, and it gained from l.2 in WA to 1.0 in the ACT. The Greens gained from .4 in WA to 8.3 in the ACT, and they lost .5 in SA. Family First lost from 0.1 in Queensland to 1.2 in SA. Others gained from .5 in WA to 16.2 in SA, and they lost .8 in Tasmania. The overall loss by the two major parties in each jurisdiction was: NSW 3.2, Victoria 4.6, Queensland 8.8 (Pauline Hanson), WA 0.6, SA 15.3 (Nick Xenophon), Tasmania 3.5, ACT 9, NT 1.8, giving a total for Australia of 5.4. Tasmania was the only jurisdiction in which the major party House vote was less than 84 per cent, while the NT is the only jurisdiction in which the major party Senate exceeded 84 per cent.

    As a general rule, a very small percentage of people votes differently in the two Houses, but a much higher percentage will do so with a high–profile Senate candidate, and even the small percentage that does so routinely is sufficient to change the results.

    I have also calculated the number of double dissolution quotas based on the 2007 Senate figures, in the order ALP/Coalition/Greens/Other. I have made no attempt to allocate surpluses or preferences and the total s are thus less than 12 for each state.
    NSW 5/5/1
    Victoria 5/5/1
    Queensland 5/5
    WA 4/6/1
    SA 4/4/0/2
    Tasmania 5/4/2
    Australia (including ACT and NT) 30/31/5/2, with 8 unknown but calculable by someone with a properly set Senate calculator.

  27. Fielding is of course an idiot; to my knowledge there are no Porsche Maserati or Ferrari models that get better than 7 l/100km and hence would have qualified under the green amendment. There was a full list of the qualifying cars in the paper a few days ago and I don’t recall anything larger than a Saab or BMW 3 series. His remark that he was voting against the luxury car tax because of is impact on tourism was equally nonsensical.

    I have said before that the true Fielding is highly conservative; like his backers. Whoever in Victorian Labor agreed a preference deal with FF should have been sacked. To think we lost the democrat for this nutter!

  28. sorry william
    meant this for this thread (delete on WA thread if you want)

    Fact 1
    the flight in question was last thursday
    “Ms Bishop says she witnessed the incident on a Qantas flight last Thursday night from Canberra to Sydney”

    fact 2
    there was no bullying!
    ‘She was menacing in her tone [and] she was walking very close to Dr Nelson so I moved out into the aisle to stand in between them as I got my bag out of the overhead locker.”

    However, Ms Bishop stopped short of calling Ms Neal’s behaviour bullying.’

    Fact 3
    note the timing
    “Yesterday police announced Ms Neal and her husband, New South Wales MP John Della Bosca, would not face any charges over an alleged incident at the Iguanas nightclub on the NSW central coast”

  29. Dio 450

    I think quite a few people of the non-fascist variety will be energised by Palin to vote democrat. She might be quite effective in bringing out the other sides vote.

  30. Socrates
    “I have said before that the true Fielding is highly conservative; like his backers”

    IF anyone ever challenges you on that , you could quote that One Nation prefs even favored Labor more than Fieeldings in 2007

    Link I mentioned , Al Gore ‘s speeech 1 week BEFORE Iraq vote
    Uncanny how accurate his predictions ar of what would happen inside Iraq , to civil war , to US standing , even said Georgia
    IF you ever get a chanse to read it , will be interested in your views

  31. Ron

    Thanks for the link! Actualy I have never seen it but have read most of that Gore speech before and agree – it showed he really was an astute judge of world politics, and not just a nerd. The comment on Russia/Georgia was quite prescient. His views on the dangers of unilateral action also echoed those of Gorbachev when he last visited.

    Of course I strongly agree with the comment on principles too. I am getting quite sick of this neo-con theme that only those prepared to “bend the rules” are “tough enough” to stop terrorism. What rubbish. All they do is aid the recruiting of the next generation of suicide bombers.

  32. The cover of the national enquirer with the stories about Palin.

    They would want to be confident of their info – the compensation will be high if wrong.

  33. Ron

    Thinking further on this, I think it is a common misconception these days in both business and politics that the ethical thing is somehow “niaive” and not practical – it doesn’t work in the “real world”. The opposite is the case. Ethical behaviour is not always easy, especially in teh short term, but it is what we have found works best in teh long term. The thinkers who defined the principles that formed western democracies, both in regard to the behaviour of the state, and private rights, did so from painful experience of what happened when they were absent. So just as we see Wall Street headed for a fall after ignoring normal reporting rules in the rush for “private equity” I fear that US political stocks are going to suffer equaly after the current regime’s abuses of power. They have created a lot of enemies for their successors.

  34. ‘chad’ votes alone or no Nader , and he was POTUS in 2000 , no Iraq , no gittmo , no judical manipulation , concentration where it belonged in Aghanistan , probably no Georgia , no sub prime (or not as bad) , he believes in some ‘regulation , universal healthcare , Ktyoto , USA moeral standing to bring Countrys along as partners , would hav negaged Russia with fairness (but with iron gove backed by moralk authority ) to get bettter realtion standards with limits etc etc a different world ….incidently no Obama or Hillary could hav emerged as politcs of successor would hav been decided JUST after if not before his 2004 re-election

  35. Ron

    I have thought the same many times. I fear it may go down as one of the great tragedies of human history. Those are only the bad consequences now. I shudder to think what unchecked global warming is going to cause this century in terms of yet unknown conflicts, famines and disasters. Whereas I fear that even if we get action now, its too late to stop Greenland melting, and all that implies.

    I heard Gore speak on my field (transport) way back in 1996 and was very impressed then. He was articulate, well informed, had logical answers, and wasn’t at all wooden – quite genuine and warm in fact. Those who reported on his campaign in 2000 have a lot to answer for, and perhaps started my strong disillusionment with the media. Its one thing to say that a corrupt judiciary stole the election, but the fact remains that it was close enough to steal after a very biased campaign.

  36. Socrates , agree with both your posts , my simplistic sense without going into all of Al Gore’s nuances & Geo politcals has always been in FA , that ethics & fairness/standards without military power leads to getting run over externally , power without ethics , fairness/standards leads to getting run over/disintergrating internally , and power & fairness/standards without taking note of other countrys friends views leads to insular & ill judged decisons
    …which is why I reely liked Al Gore’s approach

    which always leads me back to Palestine as a failure , not only one And it and other ‘trouble spots’ fair resloution should be BOTH candidates FA benchmarks so we can later judge them

  37. Vice President material??
    “When asked if her daughter would be raped and impregnated by raper, she said she would choose life. With capital punishment, she said rapist should die. So the kid is allowed to be born and his dad is executed.”

    For those who haven’t seen it and are interested.

    God cares about oil pipelines it appears.

    The Sarah Palin Church Video Part One – her addressing a congregation.

    Her Church in Wallisa – it has made its own rockin video promotion about half way through.

  38. just been monitoring google went from 531 to 533

    some cockamanye story in the age quoting bishop as having to stand as “human shield” and the smh has the exact same quote
    yet surprise surprise they are supposed to be from two different writers.


  39. “In the first instance, last Thursday, Ms Neal is said to have remonstrated with Dr Nelson on a plane, prompting the Deputy Opposition Leader, Julie Bishop, to act as a human shield between the “menacing” MP and her leader.”
    Phillip Coorey Chief Political Correspondent

    “Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop said yesterday she witnessed the incident on the Qantas flight, where Ms Neal had used a “menacing” tone to Dr Nelson. The tone prompted Ms Bishop to stand in the style of a human shield between the two.” Katharine Murphy

  40. am happy with Costa going , thought too much of an economic rationalist & confrontationist , what do you think James

    Oh Gus , looks like whole MSN hav bought mesmerelda ‘story’ , maybe her networking advantages over truth

  41. Ron
    the fairfax network is publishing in the land farm weekly etc
    count now 539
    i just love how easily caught out the buggers are “human shield”-pigs arse

    where’s mediawatch when you need it

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