Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

554 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. Wonder if the Libs drafted the various stories and faxed them to the various papers for publication. After all don’t want to tire out these journalists with writing and checking facts and getting independent witnesses.


    Wonder if Palin’s overt Christianity might backfire. Sure a bunch of fundies and the like will love her – but other Christians and non-Christians might be wanting to get away from overt religious influences within the Whitehouse. The Bush, neo-cons got themselves and hard core Christianity a bad name.

    As some commentators have noted her speech was in the old Bush style – strong on attacking, sarcasm and denigrating everything they find threatening but little on the things that matter in the current world – jobs, health and the economy. Palin’s hard core take on some issues such as abortion might frighten some as well.

    Will be interesting as usual to observe how Americans react. They haven’t proved too smart in the past.

  2. “where’s mediawatch when you need it”

    Gus , I find MSN so frustrating , and beliece its why there’s such a high rusted on vote in this Country , most people in there lives hav no time to research so ASSUME th MSN is always truthful & accurate

    By way , luxury tax headlines on 2 commercial TV News I saw were reely damaging to Libs …headlineLKibd block luxury tax , followed by Rudd saying Libs ar more interested in porsche etc owners than average austrialians with backgrounfd of Parliament of Swan etc showing th porsche’s lambo’s …Gus very damaging

  3. TP,Ron
    new twist

    “Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop yesterday backed Dr Nelson, saying she was forced to stand between the pair as Ms Neal became aggressive in front of passengers.
    Ms Neal is accused of following the Liberal leadership team as they attempted to leave the airport, before being told by Ms Bishop to leave them alone.”,25197,24296276-2702,00.html

    now she is aggressive and a stalker- sheesh what next?

  4. “now she is aggressive and a stalker- sheesh what next?”

    Gus it means mesmerelda was protecting Nelson’s manhood How I wish PK could be in Parliament just for a few minutes to ‘play’ with that !

    I’m feeling like you did , MSN got th story so biasely wrong

    may go now Gus , nite and look after yourself

  5. Even if everything that happened between Nelson and Neale as portrayed by Bishop were true (yes, I believe in fairies), what does that say about Nelson?

    Too scared to raise it himself?

    Too weak to stand up to a miffed woman expressing her displeasure at his previous spineless abuse of her?

    Requiring the intercession of a 4’9″ female dwarf to protect him?

    Perfect choice of leader for the Liberal Party?

    I think I got the last one right.

  6. Apparently Costa has been sacked over night with Iemma to be replaced by Nathan Rees shortly. The cleanout has begun. Being interesting to see how much substance the Nayhan Rees part of the stpory is though. Iemma seems the sort that would have to be dead before he gives up power…


  7. Oie!! Diogenes

    Peter Brent over at Mumble poses this question

    Does anyone know the statistical chances of a 72 year old making 76?

    I figured your the man to ask (I guess we need to know chances of Dementia etc starting up as well)

  8. The clean out in NSW wasn’t hard to predict was it? They are ruthless up there. All that is needed after this is for Morris to find a convenient excuse to go and let Tebbutt take over and they may just be able to prevent a total wipeout at the next election. At least they are trying something.

  9. Classified

    I don’t know exactly but the odds would be quite high, welll above 50%. Life expectancy for adult males who make it past 25 is about 80, higher if they don’t smoke.

  10. Regarding NSW, its not surprising that Costa is going, but the problems of course go much deeper than him, and precede Iemma. They really need to make some (painfull) reforms to the budget and/or public service, which would shake up the mates culture, and I don’t know if anyone has the backbone to do it. It would have been a lot easier if Iemma had done it in 2003-04 when things were good, but its much harder with NSW virtually in a single state recession. Strange to say, but they need a Jeff Kennett.

  11. Classified

    You have to take into consideration McCains father dying early, at 62 or so, and his mother still being alive. I’d say his melanoma has been cured if it hasn’t recurred yet (only a 5% chance of recurring now). He’s actually on borrowed time already in actuarial studies and the chance of him dying in the next four years is about 25%, not including assassination etc. Don’t forget 1 in 4 presidents die in office.

    There’s only about a 4% chance he’ll get dementia over the next four years.

  12. Rudd was on Sunrise this morning and correctly connected the dots on the budget surplus, blocked revenue measures, inflation and interest rates. Fielding needs to be pursued on issues like the luxury car tax and health insurance rebates, unless he intends to rename his party “Rich Families First”.

  13. Ron

    This is what I was talking about earlier. Palin is mobilising BOTH camps. From Drudge (who has been very pro-Palin, but anti-McCain)

    PALIN RAISES MONEY — FOR OBAMA! **Exclusive** Obama scores $8 million since Palin’s speech from over 130,000 donors – on pace to hit $10 million by the time John McCain hits stage, campaign says

  14. Fulvio @ 507

    the latest headline from fairfax “Julie protects Brendan from Belinda”

    NB this is the re write with the “human shield” bit,previously titled “Neal denies flying off handle at Nelson”

    interestingly news runs a shortened story now “New accusations emerge about MP Neal”

    the MSM has been BUSTED big time over this planted story and are trying to run a story with no legs and some very critical observers.

    the next story re write will be interesting.(now up to 680 stories on google)

  15. The Lib wouldn’t be so stupid as to invent a story would they? Must have been people on the plane who would have been watching them simply because they are both recognisable.

  16. 513
    Diogenes Says:
    September 5th, 2008 at 9:08 am

    You have to take into consideration McCains father dying early, at 62 or so, and his mother still being alive. I’d say his melanoma has been cured if it hasn’t recurred yet (only a 5% chance of recurring now). He’s actually on borrowed time already in actuarial studies and the chance of him dying in the next four years is about 25%, not including assassination etc. Don’t forget 1 in 4 presidents die in office.

    Eight out of 41, or eight out of 42 if we treat the current President as one of those who didn’t die in office. That’s only 20 or 19 per cent, not 25.

  17. Am quietly enjoying myself here going through possible Pies Akerman scenarios as as the new GGette is sworn in.

    Will he be sitting in his lonely room, gnawing at his knuckles, rocking silently back and forth in a foetal position, sobbing uncontrollably into his fourth Big Ben of the morning?

    Or, as the investiture begins, will the new Chief Justice, triumphantly clutching a sheaf of Akerman blog posts, declare that her elevation to the top job is ultra vires the Constitution and that not only can proceedings not continue, but that the Rudd government is sacked?

    Will Pies himself lurch to his feet (after smuggling himself in as a large – a very large – vase), slough off the rose petals, and in deep, sonorous tones cry, “J’accuse!“?

    Will he slash the decorative bunting about the dias, De Groot style, with a loud “Huzzah!”

    Will there be Pies-Bolt wingnuts waiting outside Yarralumla hold placards aloft screaming, “THEY’RE ALL GUILTY”?

    Traitors and paedophiles are being appointed gradually to the very highest offices in the land. I think it’s time for Pies to do something radical about it.

  18. TP
    from the looks of it
    the original meme had liberal sources said.then nelson refused to comment.then mesmerelda weaved her magic.a cupppla news hacks and then fairfax started running the “human shield” line.initially only the abc ran neals response that the story was “ridiculous”
    the msm were ready to go full bore on this one but have been BUSTED badly

    The Prime Ministe has responded appropriately

    Libs will be impartial on Neal, jokes PM,21985,24297879-5005961,00.html

  19. J-D

    You’re right. I remembered that it was 20% on the way in to work. It’s about 16% for surviving a four year term because of the number who lived through two terms.

  20. MORRIS IEMMA about to be sacked by caucus.,22049,24298014-5001021,00.html

    MORRIS Iemma will be sacked as NSW Premier at a party meeting today.

    After a devastating 12 months Mr Iemma has been rolled by MPs angry at his handling of the power privatisation and loyalty to Treasurer Michael Costa.

    Mr Iemma had been warned that if he did not dump Mr Costa he would be challenged, however even that has not saved him.

    It is believed that Mr Iemma will be replaced by young gun minister Nathan Rees, who was only elected to Parliament last year.

  21. Diogenes

    We all slow down with age but what are the odds of McCain being significantly congitively impaired at his age. I see statistics for people’s declining mental ability to cope with driving tasks (perception and decision making on taking gaps in traffic etc) and over the age of 75 they aren’t pretty. On US data drivers aged 75 and older have a 37 percent higher crash rate than younger drivers.

    It is often not popular to raise concerns about older people’s ability to drive safely in my field; cries of discrimination and lots of apologist stuff on the savings to aged health care of leaving people in their homes. But its a real problem. I suppose that raising it about McCain risks alienating the aged vote, but if they mostly vote Republican anyway there may not be much to lose.

  22. 465
    Dyno Says:
    September 4th, 2008 at 10:42 pm

    The Dems are going to wipe the floor in the House and Senate, and whoever’s President won’t be able to do much without an ok from Nancy Pelosi. (Pelosi’s power is not necessarily a reason to vote for Obama – who has a negligible legislative record – as opposed to McCain, who it would seem can deal with anyone, when the mood takes him).

    I’m not sure what you mean by ‘wipe the floor’. If the Democrats get two-thirds majorities in both House and Senate (enabling a veto override) it would be a big deal, but there is virtually no chance of that. Even short of that, a Congressional majority is obviously powerful and can act as a major check on a President of the opposing party, but the idea that a Congressional majority is more powerful than the Presidency is not well-supported by the evidence of recent years.

  23. Gary: Nathan Rees is a gamble, and an unproven one at that, but Iemma has been dead in the water for some time, Watkin’s departure has been the catalyst for subsequent events.
    And, don’t be surprised if O’Farrell on the other side of politics gets rolled by Mike Baird eventually.
    We in N.S.W live in interesting times!

  24. Progressive and other NSW residents

    I made the comment before that NSW needed a Jeff Kennett. Seriously, how much willingness do you think there would be in NSW to accept a major clean out of organisations like Rail Corp and some of the other service providers? They are hopelessly inefficient and you all pay for it, but it would probably result in a couple of thousand people losing their jobs, and others having reduced hors and pay. In the long term, if it isn’t dealt with, the NSW economy will look liek Victoria circa 1992.

  25. What deals has Nathan Rees done to get the Premier’s job?
    Could it be Costa, Reba Meagher, a few other dud ministers get rewarded and keep their cabinet positions?

  26. Hard to feel sorry for Iemma but agree with Progressive that its not only him. There are several other serious under performers that need to be shuffled out.

  27. O’Farrel is looking more astute than a lot gave him credit for in blindsiding Labor on electricity privatization.

    That’s if it was his idea.

    Well, even if it wasn’t he can still claim the credit for this morning’s scalps. Remains to be seen whether, having done his job, the Libs won’t get rid of him, too.

    Still, to go against the people’s opinion on privatization, to break an election promise not to privatize, to go against the party and then to go against the Parliament on the same subject was a big gamble.

    Feels like a few doors have been thrown open and a refreshing breeze is blowing through the house.

  28. [O’Farrel is looking more astute than a lot gave him credit for in blindsiding Labor on electricity privatization.]

    Not so sure about that. If he had kept Iemma around I reckon he would have had a better shot at winning the next election. Now with a brand new face leading the ALP they will be able to distance themselves a bit from his screw ups.

  29. Diogenes

    Excellent news and as I’d hoped. Despite their claims, the Moralisers are not even a majority of the voters, much less the nation. If Palin brings wavering independants and Clinton supporters out for Obama that should win it 🙂

  30. #541 Diog, [And Hillary is rumoured to be let loose on Palin on Monday] – Hillary is the ONLY one who has the credential to attack Palin on all fronts. Obama has none and cannot.

    So it’s time for your poster boy to get down on his knees and beg forgiveness from Hillary or else he will lose in november.

    Poll: Democratic bounce gone, race tied
    By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 9/4/08 6:27 PM EST

    A poll released today by CBS News reports that Barack Obama’s post-Democratic convention bounce has been erased — and that for the first time, John McCain has drawn even with his Democratic opponent in the network’s poll.

    BTW: the baby is still sleeping, incredible. must be on some sort of sedation.

  31. A windfall benefit from the NSW mess?

    One political benefit from the Iemma/Costa announcements is that it has bumped Prof Garnaut’s long awaited advice on the amount of carbon reductions to be sought to position two on most news sites. The Oz is gleefully leading with the NSW implosion. If Garnaut’s report gets published without teh sky falling in its a good step towards public acceptance. He has recomemnded a 10% reduction initially, which is quite modest, just getting us back to our 1990 emission levels really.

  32. Follow up on Garnaut – sorry Garnaut has recommended only a 5% cut initially (by 2012) and even Helen Ridout has saif that is fine. i.e. it seems too low. This should certainly be enough to get the scheme started, but it will have to be toughened to have any hope of solving the problem.

  33. Poss, already in the naughty corner.

    What a 24 hours for political news tragic:

    * Sarah Palin socked it to Obama, i am the white white white and you are black black black.
    * John Watkin resigned in disgust.
    * Michael costa sacked in disgust
    * The first woman deputy premier for NSW
    * Morris Iemma got the sack in disgust by the NSW Labor caucus.
    * The first woman GG
    * Brendan Nelson was bullied by a woman and saved by a woman
    * NSW Labor chose the Alaskan option and went for a completely unknown, like a rolling stone, ex garbo, was elected only 18months ago.
    * The first Labor Bill was rejected by the new Senate, more to come and a DD anyone?
    * Labor in WA could be kicked out, is the great wall of Labor starting to crumble across OZ?
    * Prof. Garnaut said OZ is a special case and should go softly softly on greenhouse gas emissions, cut only by 10 per cent by 2020.
    * John “dead man walking” McCain is still delivering his speech as a dead man walking. They should dump Mccain and put Sarah “the Terminator Connor” Palin on top of the ticket and let her loose and moose on Obama.

  34. Finns

    Hillary has started already. It seems that Yup Yup doesn’t believe in equal pay for women. That can’t be popular with Hillary supporters.

    “The two party conventions showcased vastly different directions for our country. Senator Obama and Senator Biden offered the new ideas and positive change America needs and deserves after eight years of failed Republican leadership. Senator McCain and Governor Palin did not.

    “After listening to all of the speeches this week, I heard nothing that suggests the Republicans are ready to fix the economy for middle class families, provide quality affordable health care for all Americans, guarantee equal pay for equal work for women, restore our nation’s leadership in a complex world or tackle the myriad of challenges our country faces.

    “So, to slightly amend my comments from Denver: NO WAY, NO HOW, NO McCAIN-PALIN.”

  35. Possum, you may have sent Finns to the naughty corner for mentioning the dodgy poll, but put it on their front page. Would love to see the MOE on that one!!

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