The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
Socrates@8
That doesn’t say much for the long-suffering and seemingly witless burghers of O’Connor, who have elected Wilson “The Man with a Criminal Intellect” Tuckey at every federal election since 1980.
Boerwar
Just to show how difficult the truth can be to find, there is a body of opinion that the Kosovo genocide only happened AFTER NATO bombed the Serbs. Evidently, there isn’t much evidence of bodies before the bombing according to this article. I’m not saying this article is the truth but who knows what the truth is.
I think Rudd is smart to keep fairly quiet on this one. Lining up behind the US with it’s total lack of moral authority just puts you in the firing line.
Sorry, forgot the link.
Genocide in Kosovo?
http://www.counterpunch.org/biglie.html
very informative diogenes
Diogenese @ 103 Thank you. Very interesting article and an issue ignored in the MSM. If true, somewhat of a bugger-up that cost lots of innocent Serbs their lives and many more their livelihoods.
Going back, we know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty. The first is that the Serbs had already demonstrated that they were into mass murder as a matter of state policy. They had demonstrated this against people who (a) were not regarded as ethnic serbs, (b) who were trying to break away from being governed by the serbs (c) who were mostly muslim (d) who were living in places which were once geographically part of some ancient serb empire or other and (e) who were living in places deemed by the Serbs to be part of their cultural heritage.
The kosovars fulfilled all these pre-requisites, so the West knew with a fair degree of certainty that the serbs were not going to be pleasant to the Kosovars. It was also more or less difficult to know what exactly was going on.
Then again, there is also some debate about what genocide means. Quite a few people think it can mean something less than killing every last person off. (I don’t).
That said, the article tells a story eerily reminiscent of the search for WMD in Iraq.
The Ottomans left a fair bit of unfinished business when they went to pieces, including the balkans. The problem with an empire as a governance system is it leaves all sorts of unfinished and nasty business when it collapses. If, as some people believe, the US has a quasi sort of virtual empire (troops in over 100 countries or some such figure), and the US is on the decline, what sort of nasty unfinished business are we going to have to address in the coming century?
And what we are seeing now is the legacy of the Romanov empire, which became Stalin’s empire, which Putin is trying to recreate.
Note Boerwar: The US is not in decline.
Adam @ 106
I think you are right about the first of the Putinovs. (Does he have a son, BTW?)
I would be interested in understanding more about your view about the decline of the US. I suppose I have a bit of a view that empires all go eventually and that we may be watching the beginning of the end for the US, with an understanding that the end might take a century or so. I also think the US is qualitatively different from other empires in that it does not necessarily have to have absolute extra-territorial control to gain empire benefits.
My rough estimate would go along the following lines.
In terms of soft power? Probably declining. In terms of relative economic power? Probably declining. In terms of relative global financial power? Probably declining. In terms of direct or indirect control over commodities? Probably declining. In terms of relative military power? Increasing. In terms of relative ability to innovate? Probably increasing. In terms of IP? Probably increasing. In terms of adaptability and flexibility of US governance systems? Probably declining.
You are confusing transitory epiphenomena (ie that Bush is a lousy president) with long-term trends. The key to long-term power is demography, which economic vitality and thus military power flow. The US continues to grow lustily, thanks to immigration and a high birthrate, while Europe is stagnant, Russia and Japan in decline, and China heading for a bust thanks to the one-child policy. The long-term trend is, as it has been for 150 years, for New World ascendancy over the Old World. Of course the US’s relative military and economic position vis-a-vis other countries has declined since 1945 – hardly surprising since all the other powers were in ruins then. But US superiority in virtually every field is still enormous and will remain so. The so-called China threat is a chimaera. China is heading for a hideous demographic, environmental and economic crash.
Adam,
Yes they are…..
They have been borrowing money from, amongst others, China to fund their wars for the last eight years….
If the Chinese economy slows and they need to (like the good socialists they are) spend money to make work, they’ll stop lending money to the US.
Money makes the world go round. And the US is running out.
Boerwar
What you ar saying is when USA sneezes all of World taks notice
Whilstever USA has th dollar as denommination , a huge consumer ecomony supported by increasing immigration , backed by an innovative private enterprise system and World’s strongest war machine , they do not hav a problem (there 5 trillion debt & trade deficits can be turned around , by a stroke of a quill)
Adam
Where do you get this stuff from? It isn’t just demographics, but a combination of finance, demographics and the number of educated workers. If not, you would expect Indonesia to be more powerful than Australia, because they have 10 times our population. On all such counts China is progressing very rapidly.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
I don’t pretend that the US is suddenly powerless, but they have been in a long term slide. At the end of WWII they were about 50% of world GDP. Now its a quarter, and shrinking rapidly. The US debt situation will affect them for a decade or more. Look at what happened to Japan in the 90s when their asset value bubble burst.
Adam
If China crashes economically, which I have repeatedly read IS going to happen, won’t they call in debts and sell off the US dollar and bring the US down with it?
Adam is of course correct. Capitalism does have an unfortunate tendency to have booms and busts, Schumpeter called it creative destruction. That shouldnt equated with the end of Western civilisation or the US as we know it.
EStJ
Adam, come back and tell me about it if the US civilization has survived for 5000 years.
Remember the Third Reich was supposed to last for a 1000 years.
At least the Chinese civilization has survived for the last 5000 years. They will survive for another 5000 come what may.
Of course Chinese civilisation will survive. China’s pretensions to be a great power will not, so long as they are a corrupt, inefficient, one-party state.
Demography does not equal merely size of population, duh. It means growth. Population growth + a free market economy = prosperity = power. Indonesia now has both and is indeed on an uphill incline, but from a very long way behind. Ditto India. China has little growth and will soon have none, and only a semi-free market economy. Europe has a FME but no growth. Russia has negative growth and a gangster economy.
Little Growth?
7% pa + last I checked…..
Admittedly, that’s down from 10%, but it’s still no slouch.
*rolls eyes* population growth
centaur
#99_
August 12th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“(Ron do you know how steroids work? Do you have a science background?)”
Centaur , you claimed our Olmpic swimmers were drug cheats and named Libby Tricket 100% sure, Leisal Jones 95%, and Stephenie Rice 80%
You probabley had no place making such an irrelevant comment on an ‘oz’ Politcal site. Made worse by th fact you made an innuenndo slur without th slightest evidence
Put up , not here on a politcal site , but in an appropriate forum where suspect you will also be met with giggles without credible evidence
.
For those unfamilar shape changes , I ‘ve had involvement for over 20 years with a mainstream ‘oz’ pro sport , taking 15 to 17 years old skinny kids weighing 75kg plus , to within a short time to 95kg plus , full of muscles anywhere you want high powered high speed high endurance sharp reflex responses skin tones th lot , through modern training drills diets tecniques weihts etc etc programs , but geared to that sport Changing th mix is required according to th Sport So PB’s our Olymppic swim girl shapes ar not unusual to ‘experts’ such as ‘oz’ Olympic Federation (who ar experts in looking at ‘shapes”)
@114
5000 years of Chinese civilisation? I think that’s very hard to demonstrate. 3000 years probably, but more than that involves guesswork.
And even 3000 years of Chinese civilisation is not the same thing as 3000 years of China as a state. I think you’re overstating your case.
Sorry, I didn’t realise you were putting so much store in as futile a number as population growth….
I’d also revise your assumption that you can’t run a free market economy in a one party state. Politial freedom is not the same as economic freedom.
What is the advanage in sheer numbers of population anyway? As you seem to have conceeded with almost zero change in population the Chinese have managed to grow their economy by 10% + for multiple consecutive years.
Your missing the “productivity of Labour” part of the equation.
Population X Labour Productivity + Capital X Capital Productiviy = GDP
From there, higher GDP = Higher Power
This idea Rudd needs a narrative sounds like BS to me.
What narrative did Howard have? If he had one how well did it work for him last election?
With numbers like these in the polls why does Rudd need a narrative?
Was Howard ever criticised for a lack of narrative?
It’s total BS IMHO.
yes i agree about labour productivity. productivity comes from educating the workforce and investing in technology, but that can’t be done without economic growth. thus we get a virtuous cycle. economic growth must come first, as it is now doing in india and indonesia. in the long run india will overtake China unless China has political reform.
yes, china has created a reasonable facsimile of a free-market economy, but in the long run it can’t succeed without democracy, because only democracy (which includes free trade unions and NGOs) can prevent corruption and environmental degredation, which China’s kind of capitalism is producing. China wants to be a giant Singapore but that model can’t be translated to a major economy.
GB @ 121,
Howard’s narrative in 1998, 2004 and 2007 was:
“Vote for me or Labor will get back in and stuff the economy up…”
In 2001, it was:
“Vote for me or Labor will let terrorist illegal immigrants take over the country…”
And in 1996, it was:
“Vote for me or Labor will continue to stuff up the economy…”
Pretty simple (and successful, except for ’07).
Gary Bruce
#121
“This idea Rudd needs a narrative sounds like BS to me.”
Do not know where you got that story from , but Michelle Grattan was running that line , and used W/C as an example of where Howard needed a ‘narrative’
Was very tempted to write to he and say a narrativee on a ‘bullsh.t’ blatantly inequitable policy will achieve zero
Anyway rudd has mapped out CC , and after white Paper will fill in broad story of what it means , thats a reel ‘narrative’ , about a reel policy
123 Swing – Well, Rudd’s will be just as simple. Vote for me or the Libs will bring back WC.
124 Ron, I’ve noticed a few journalist’s recently pushing this “narrative” BS. It’s just another way of criticising Rudd IMHO.
Ronster
As much as it guts me to say this, I have to agree with you. Anabolic steroids are over-rated. They do cause a small amount of increased muscle mass but they mainly work by increasing the psychological drive to do stupid things like get out of bed at 4am and work out at the gym for 4 hours before sensible people have even got out of bed.
There are plenty of people out there on anabolic steroids for medical reasons who look no different after taking them, except for the acne, breasts and bad attitude.
Adam
I’m still not sure if you think China will drag the US down.
Adam in Canberra
115
Can you cite a reference for the information on China that you are posting?
“Demography does not equal merely size of population, duh. It means growth. Population growth + a free market economy = prosperity = power … China has little growth and will soon have none, and only a semi-free market economy.”
Every year China’s population grows by 14 million people and that is with the one child policy. Population growth is not a problem like in the West!
Have a read of David Lucas article on World Population Growth – it was written in 2003 but has up to date links to the UN’s population websites where you can easily access accurate information.
http://adsri.anu.edu.au/pubs/BAPS/BAPSChap3.pdf
Looks like Fuel Watch is dead in the water. Still, the government can say it tried and was thwarted. Not there fault.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24168661-601,00.html
[Looks like Fuel Watch is dead in the water. Still, the government can say it tried and was thwarted. Not there fault.]
Considering that the Libs in WA under Richard Court introduced Fuelwatch, will Current Liberal Leader Colin Barnett have the balls to scrap it here ?
#119 – I suggest that it will pay for you to go and study the Chinese history and philosophy. The Chinese nation is both a political. social state and a state of mind.
[Ron, I’ve noticed a few journalist’s recently pushing this “narrative” BS. It’s just another way of criticising Rudd IMHO]
Agreed. Leading by a huge margin in every poll, but they ‘need a narrative’. My arse they do. I can’t hear any of them saying the opposition need a narrative…
Fuel Watch DD trigger number one. 😛
Watch Kev collect a few DD triggers just to scare the Fibs, it is always a good idea to have the threat of an early election. Even though I doubt it would happen.
ruawake @ 132,
Rudd will almost certainly have to go “early” to some extent – otherwise he’ll end up tripping himself up over the Vic elections in late 2006 or the NSW elections in March 2007.
My tip is that we’ll see an election in early-mid 2010 – he probably wants to “accomplish” a few more things before he goes back to the polls…
I wonder if Newspoll have any “Costello question” results coming out this week. I would like to see a Rudd V Costello PPM question. I’m not sure Cossie would do very well.
If I was Rudd I would be very cheerful at the prospect of a Costello return. A 2010 campaign against the man who thought WorkChoices didn’t go far enough would be a gift indeed. The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.
133 Swing – The Victorian election in 2010 is fair enough but NSW doesn’t go until 2011. No problem of clashing there I would have thought.
I’ve also noticed a couple of Journos (Henderson for sure) saying that Rudd hasn’t achieved anything yet…
But it’s just that Rudd hasn’t done anything along the same lines as what Howard did. As a thought experiment I like to envisage what I think Howard would had done had he one the election (WC Mk II), then compare it to what we currently have (Sorry, Carbon Trading, Mandatory Detention) and the difference in the two is what Rudd has achieved.
Quite a bit really.
I think the important point is that most voters don’t care about politics, they just want to have someone in the job they trust not to screw it up too much so they can get back to watching the Olympics….
GB,
Rudd can go as late as March (or even April 2011), because Parliament didn’t sit for the first time until mid-February this year.
But of course, he’ll be smart and go in mid-2010 to stop the Libs complaining about him not calling an election after November 24…
138 Swing – yes, you’re right. I too believe he will go marginally early for the reason’s you’ve given. It makes sense.
MRET is planned for legislation approx May 2009 , and ETS commencement July first 2010
So you can guarantee a Federal Election will not be too much later than that , so allow th prospective whingers/losers from ETS to be aleged actual whingers/losers from ETS
Yes there’s a nice record of Mr Smirk wanting W/C to go further , and guess Sir Kevin is praying hard for his resurection Then we hav all of Mr Smirk’s interest rate rises vs as expexted Rudd’s interest rate falls
IRONY , Rudd slapping cossie down over interest rates , and Paul chuckling at tips discomforts
NOT allow whingers
@130
‘#119 – I suggest that it will pay for you to go and study the Chinese history and philosophy. The Chinese nation is both a political. social state and a state of mind.’
Maybe it would. But maybe it would pay you to consider the possibility that other people have some knowledge, not just you. Maybe you know more about Chinese history and philosophy than I do. But maybe not.
There is no documentary evidence from China from 5000 years ago. Archaeological evidence confirms that there were people living in China 5000 years ago, but I know of no evidence that suggests they had the same civilisation or the same state of mind as the later Chinese, and you haven’t presented any.
88
Jovial Monk Says:
Rudd should increase rent assistance by $30/wk
Is not pensioners in own homes really hurting, it is those, esp singles, renting. Then at the review a pension increase can be granted.
Good idea. Though it probably would be politically prudent to give the non-renters a little sweetener as well.
Adam says:
The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.
And Turnbull’s greatest threat is his own party.
If there is an election for the House of Representatives in the first half of 2010, then unless it’s a double dissolution there will have to be a separate half-Senate election in the second half of 2010 or the first half of 2011.
Turnbull looks scary because he is comapratively left wing.
The potential for wedging him on previously declared positions (like the Republic) would make it tough for him to hold the liberals together while not losing creidibility.
Turnbull is only a threat as a “draft-in” candidate. If he is there for any length of time his natural inclination to the left will split the far-right liberals off him and Rudd will be fine.
Window of oportunity for 2010 election is fixed
Can noyt go into 2011 as legitimacy questioned
Can not go pre July 2010 as Rudd would not want to hav a completely separate Senate election held later in 2010 where an anti govt swing is more likely
ETS strikes July 1 , so cann’t leave it too long to call , before ETS bite hits
And i’d prefer Rudd facing Horatio Neklson or Mtr smirk , rather than silky Turnful
RA @ 146,
But where would the far-right Liberals’ preferences go? Back to the Libs, of course. That’s why it makes sense for Rudd to tack rightwards – he may lose votes from the left, but they’ll all flow back to Labor eventually.
J-D @ 145,
Good point. Which means, unless Rudd pulls the DD trigger, he’s only got a narrow period of time to call the election – which means, the Coalition can prepare for that date with relative certainty unless they hand Rudd a DD trigger…
“The US continues to grow lustily, thanks to immigration and a high birthrate, ”
The US population growth rate is about 0.88% which is near half the world population growth (1.59%), its birth rate of 14.2 per 1000 (world 19.97) and an net migration rate of 2.9 per 1000 (which is in the top quartile, but not spectacular).
And here’s a picture of population projections to 2050: http://tinyurl.com/5upq5f
d
Swing Lower:
Not the voters – the party members!!!
If you think they tied themsleves in knots about the 2011 or 2012 start date for an ETS just wait till they start arguing about when the new Australian President should start his term.