Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.

We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

969 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  2. I won’t try to predict why the poll is what it is but I will compliment Rudd on two things lately.

    Firstly he made a controlled but clear and sensible comment on South Ossetia, unlike Cheney’s crazy rant. Too bad the MSM was too busy on the Olympics to notice. (Behind every cynical politician who dumps bad news or corrupt decisions when the news cycle is focused on sport, a lot of lazy journalists share blame.)

    Second, in my line of work (transport) Rudd (or someone in government) has finally changed the rules to at last get federal funding for planning for improved public transport in Australian cities. It will unfortunately take a while to get to the bottom of what needs to be done and years longer to fix the backlog but this is a major step forward which should be congratulated. I’m surprise there hasn’t been a bigger announcement.

  3. Just quietly i think NT was the kick up the ass Labor needed to bring it down to earth and start governing for the people who put them there!

  4. Oy Ron,

    Watching Georgia? This thing is going to get bigger – much bigger according to the Russian dude on Lateline. Will not play well for the hopemaster but seems tailor made for McCain.

    In Australia stability will be at a premium.

  5. After hearing all day from the usual suspects that the outcome in the NT election coming on the heels of the Gippsland loss proves that federal Labor is on the nose with a disillusioned electorate and how Rudd might as well begin packing his bags in the Lodge right now, I can only assume the figures have been accidentally transposed and it’s really the Libs at 57% and that 68% of the surveyed would sacrifice their first born for the chance to be governed by Brendan. And if pigs could…….. LOL!

  7. I think Paul Henderson and Terry Mills saw some pigs flying on the weekend!

    The NT result is a chilling warning to the others States – a change in the electorates intentions may come silently and quickly upon you and leave you no time to deal with it. You can never take your position for granted – ask Howard. Might also make those with egos and leadership ambitions think twice before making a move.

    These polls might sow a little trap for the LNP as the issue of industrial relations laws has fallen in importance. Might tempt some to reinvigorate the likes of Workchoices even if the stats showed something like a reduction of $100 per week in wages.

    Also good to have the two polls together so we can maybe begin to calibrate Essential Research against Newspoll.

  8. ESJ

    Is that why Vice Idiot Cheney seems to be stoking the fire with his recent coments on Georgia? Hoping to start another war to help McCain get elected? I guess if a party is worth stealing government for its worth starting a war for. Great.

    Seriously, given the disastrous way foreign policy has gone under Bush does anyone think they are better at foreign policy any more? Cheney has lots of experience too … Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Georgia … quite a record. The USA’s hamfisted liaison with Georgia has left that country in a disastrous position and now France and Finland are desperately trying to repair things. McCain is part of the Bush – Cheney axis of stupidity. He’s admitted himself he doesn’t know anything about economics either. It would be like us electing Wilson Tuckey.

  9. Too bad Rudd doesn’t speak Russian. LoL

    Do the yanks still have a stomach for more conflict? How much more do they want to bankrupt the economy? How much do they want to push up oil prices? And are we looking at the next Russian Tzar in Putin?

  10. Thomas

    Those are good questions. Its a pity nobody asked them before the Georgians started moving troops in. They gave the Russians the perfect excuse to do exactly what they wantd to do anyway. Putin would love to control the pipeline through Georgia. Talk about poking the bear. Maybe Cheney has the stomach for more fighting but that is easy to feel from the safety of a warm bed in Washington. I doubt the Georgians do now.

  11. ESJ

    #4

    Yes , conflict in Georga helps McCain , but then what a choice they hav , a snake oil sales man and a mumbling geriatric BUT then those US voters elected a B Grade Actor in Reagan and a dumb Bush 11 , whose Dad Bush one tried to get employment in his mates Texas law firm , and Law firm actualy wantd to ditch him after a week ( and he defeated th able Al Gore)

    USA system continues to throw up plastic pollies , and this year there are two
    Thank goodness we live in ‘oz’

  12. Socrates

    can not th pipeline be diverted from th contested area containing oil and into Georgia , leaving Russia as only a tributary sugesting issue is oil based

  15. The writing is on the wall for all to see – CC is just a great motivator to get stuck into it. Concerted effort on developing renewable not just for CC but energy security and independence. How many of these wars/conflict in the Middle East and Africa could have been avoided if their oil wasn’t needed. It would be good to be able to ignore some lunatics in the desert as being irrelevant to the economy!

    However we of course see the OO come to the rescue of big oil/coal and pushing their barrow for them still and holding Australia back in the dark ages whilst everyone else starts down the road.

  16. Ron

    Possibly yes; but it depends on where the Russian troops stop. They have bombed the pipeline but its is not in the territory they control yet AFAIK. However now they are across the mountains and firmly entrenched, there is really no natural or military barrier between them and controlling a strip of land across Georgia that could cut it off completely. I don’t know what will happen but they can basically do what they want now. Given hsi past form it would be surprising if Putin didn’t use the chance to take at least some form of control over the pipeline. Hence my view that doing anything that provoked conflict here was incredibly against the interests of Georgia and western customers of the oil and gas. Hence Cheney and the Georgian president were fools IMO.

  17. According to the Lateline interview the Russians planned this invasion in April. Sometimes Socrates when all else fails you have to fight. A lesson the West learned to its cost in the 30’s.

  18. Socrates

    #16

    “Ron
    Possibly yes; but it depends on where the Russian troops stop. They have bombed the pipeline but its is not in the territory they control yet”

    Socrates , hope I’m wrong , but susdpect when dust finally settles Putin will hav some sort of “control” of that oil pipeline Agree with you very foolish provacaton of th Russian Bear without a plan A or B

  19. The parellels with Germany in the 20’s and 30’s are a bit eerie… a collapsed empire which is clawing it’s way out of economic ruin, feels embarrased by it’s fall from grace and wants to re-assert itself as a power, and still has designs on expanding into it’s neighbours’ territory.

    What goes around, comes around.

  20. Also a quote that seems to have been missed is the Polish President:

    “[We’ve told] Georgia we’ll provide any help they ask for. We don’t have any plans to send troops, but you should never rule things out”.

  21. [RBA predicting 5% inflation at Christmas seems to be the more important figure today.]

    Last week you were saying we are headed for a recession. How exactly is inflation going to continue to rise if we are headed for a recession?

  22. ShowsOn @ 21,
    Probably fair to say that no-one knows exactly where the economy is heading.
    But inflation coupled with recession is far from impossible: it happened in the 70s, at a time when US foreign policy seemed increasingly impotent, and the price of oil had just skyrocketed.

  24. You’re right, Dyno. They called it Stagflation, and it was one of the factors (one of many) that crippled Gough’s government.

  25. [Probably fair to say that no-one knows exactly where the economy is heading.]

    Well, I propose that if inflation goes up, it means it is because we are going to keep growing too quickly.

    I propose that if inflation goes down, it will be because the economy is slowing, which will reduce consumption.

    [showson its called stagflation.]

    Why do you think we are going to suffer stagflation when we haven’t had that problem for ~18 years?

    Why do you think we will suffer stagflation when we no longer have a protected economy with centralised wage fixing?

  26. [You’re right, Dyno. They called it Stagflation, and it was one of the factors (one of many) that crippled Gough’s government.]

    And Fraser’s.

    There is no reason why will will suffer stagflation now.

  29. [Won’t stop the righties bringing up the prospect of course]

    ESJ seems to have this philosophical idea that if he can think of something, then that means it is about to happen.

  31. Diogenes

    #144
    August 11th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
    “Ronster
    My point was that I don’t think China and India would be selfish if they refused to do anything about CC until they had the same emissions per capita as the truly selfish countries like the US, Australia etc”

    Diogenoski , you’ve skipped th central issue USA (including Obama & McCain per there own policys) selfishly will NOT support ratifying Kyoto , if USA did then USA will get same FULL targets as every other “developed Nation” (ie. same citeria as EU, Japan , Canada etc)

    India & China who’ve already ratified Kyoto ar ENTITLED (rightly) under Kyoto protocols to get temporarily a reduced target (vs USA , EU , Japan) because they ar clasified as “developing Nations” and hav put less CO2 up there in last 100 years and ar prepared to negotiate those reducd targets

    WHEREAS USA ar selfishly saying USA won’t ratify Kyoto , unless Tyoto Protocols
    ar changed for there economic benefit , to make China & India’s emmission target on same criteria as USA EU Japan etc But th other 182 Countrys who’ve signed Kyoto ar (rightly) happy to give China & India dispensation because they ar in fact “developing Countries”

    Your point about ‘per capita’ emmissions may or may not be part of India/China’s reduced target negotiations but is acedemic presently , as th central issue is USA refusal to accept th exisitng 182 Country ageed Kyoto protocols in th first place (allowing “developing countries” like India/China temporary targets dispensation) My point is USA (including both current selfish Pres candidates) ar about to destroy Kyoto by not joining Kyoto , and this arises before one can look at per capita emmissions

    For all th terrible sad humanatarian abuses in our World and curent Putin disgrace in Georgia , CC afects whole planet Even Uncle Rupert said “our world deserves th benifit of doubt regarding CC ” Pres candidatesd john Edwards & Mrs Cackle bich were prepared to , but Mr oiliness and Mr mumbling geriatric ar not We can only hope world pressure makes USA look past th mighty dollar (which by day is devaluing anyway)

  32. And as I put quill down , so has Mr Shanahanigins with a spin story perhaps 57% to 43% is same as last Poll , so Liberals hav not narrowed but Labor has “plateaud” or was NT a start of dominos fo Liberals , perhaps with Cossie to rescue

  35. ESJ, no doubt about it twelve years of wasted opportunity under a Howard Costello government was always a big risk for Australia.

  37. “stagflation anyone?”

    Sounds more like a bunch of clueless economists, who now that they have to give reasons for their thinking are having a bet each way to cover their backsides.

  39. Rx,

    The cause is a matter for economists to debate, the price will be paid by Mr Rudd. That’s politics old boy!

    Where is the justice in this world eh?

  40. You’re sure all the price will be paid by the inheritor of the Coalition’s economy? Some voters (probably not conservative voters LOL) will see who took us for 11.5 years to this point and take into account also global factors.

  42. We all want justice, but you’ve got to have the money to buy it.

    57/43 to Labor is the sort of justice I can afford.

  43. ESJ, the banks could cut rates now if they wanted to.

    [Backing up his conviction that the banks were doing fine was a 5 per cent fall in the interest rate banks are charged to borrow the money they lend to customers.

    The rate – known as the 90-day bank-bill-rate – has fallen from 7.7 per cent to 7.32 per cent in less than two weeks, effectively the same as over .25 basis point interest rate rises.

    Banks source around 50 per cent of the money they lend to customers through this facility, also known as the short-term money market.

    “A key fact here is that the 90-day-bank-bill rate has fallen sharply over the past 10 days,” Mr Robertson said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24164098-14327,00.html

  44. Double standard?

    for those outraged on China over Tibet, where are the outrages over Russian on Georgia.

    Those who were predicting war with Iran before the US POTUS election may have the next best, war in Georgia.

  45. Classic article by Henderson for media studies.

    Gerald labels organisations and journo’s as left of centre whilst complaining that “Radio National cannot find even one conservative-inclined regular commentator to cover US, Australian or British politics.”

    However, Henderson fails to disclose his own right (far?) wing allegiences and those of the other journo’s and organisations he mentions.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/no-wins-for-howard-in-culture-wars/2008/08/11/1218306764370.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  48. The interesting line is at the end of Dennis’ article – that all Costello had to say when asked about the Lib leadership was that he said last year that he was retiring from politics.
    Given his previous statement that his mother always told him to speak the truth, then he’s retiring from politics.
    We all know that he refused the leadership last year and that a desire to punish the Libs was part of this.
    I can’t see why, when things are going exactly the way PC expected them to then, he would now deign to pick up the leadership.
    He’s quitting, end of story.

  50. Craven masochists, given they are begging him to lead them, after he’s spent months “punishing” them. LOL Craven + desperate (any port in a storm).

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