WA election minus 28 days

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to go showed that even with Buswell as leader the party would have retained Bunbury (Liberal-held but notionally Labor post-redistribution) and won the notionally knife-edge new eastern suburbs seat of Kalamunda. However, they were trailing slightly in the must-win seats of Albany (Labor-held but now notionally Liberal) and Kingsley (northern suburbs, Labor-held, notionally line-ball). A report from Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the poll showed them winning all four if Barnett was leader, by a margin of 60-40 in Bunbury. However, Taylor also reports Labor polling is believed to give them a “nice buffer”.

• Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter. The formerly estranged Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs (members for Hillarys and Roe, with the latter set to contest the new seat of Eyre) are back on the board.

• It now seems likely the Liberals will be unable to accommodate Deidre Willmott, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry policy adviser who had to abandon Cottesloe so Colin Barnett could shelve his retirement plans. This leaves the Liberals with a grand total of four female lower house candidates out of the 43 nominated so far: Liza Harvey in the marginal Liberal new northern suburbs seat of Scarborough, Andrea Mitchell and Milly Zuvella in Kingsley and Joondalup further north (respectively line-ball and marginal Labor) and Ruth Webb-Smith in long-shot Kimberley.

• Today’s West Australian reports that outgoing Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas is ruing her decision to retire, made on the day Troy Buswell became leader. Hodson-Thomas complained Buswell had made “inappropriate comments” to her in front of male colleagues.

• The West Australian’s Gary Adshead reports that Sue Walker, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Nedlands, is yet to have nominated for the election, prompting speculation she was “throwing in the towel”. Walker responded by telling Adshead that a man had come into her electorate office to say her “life was in danger”, but that “providing there’s nothing that stands between me and the close of nominations, I intend to nominate”.

• Alan Carpenter has announced a re-elected Labor government will spend $160 million rebuilding Albany Regional Hospital, after earlier committing only to a $55 million redevelopment. Albany was won by Labor in 2001 and retained by a 1.4 per cent margin in 2005, but the one-vote one-value redistribution has turned it into a 2.3 per cent Liberal seat by expanding it into rural areas beyond the city limits.

• In other policy news, the Kimberley canal is officially off the agenda of a first-term Liberal government. Word is that the once-bitten twice-shy Barnett will pursue a “small target” strategy.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can my read quick overview from today’s email. The upshot is that the Liberals are a better chance than the $4.25 being offered by Centrebet suggests.

UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

340 comments on “WA election minus 28 days”

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  1. From the Buswell article posted earlier:

    [But an email dated December 6, 2007, obtained by The Sunday Times, reveals that a few months before this paper revealed the scandal, the staffer told Mr Buswell she was “sorry” he was enduring hard times in Parliament, and she was “glad” he was there.]

    I’m curious about the timing of the article – within days of an election being called, are the Liberals who are leaking this on a death wish to remain in opposition ? You would think that you wouldn’t be kicking “own goals” by leaking potentially damaging emails designed to destabilise the party, instead of supporting the leader and regaining government.

    Is this from the NCB and ABC (Anyone but Colin ) factions smarting that Barnett is leader again ?

  4. There comes a time in any political cycle when irrespective of the perceived “cleverness” of the political operators behind the party its time to go. That point has arrived in the UK, came federally in november in last year. Its not midnight for the State Labor governments but the clock has struck 11pm.

  5. 54 Edward – “Its not midnight for the State Labor governments but the clock has struck 11pm.” I agree basically with what you are saying but I don’t think you can make a blanket statement like that. Some states are closer to 10.00pm while others are closer to 12.00 pm. I really don’t see Labor losing Victoria next election, nor Queensland or SA. WA, probably not this time and Tas who knows. NSW I think is gone.
    The elections after that will be difficult though.

  6. ESJ,

    I know these tired old cliches give comfort and hope to soothe the raging irrelevance that the Libs and their fellow travellers feel. My clock always says the same thing. It’s time to elect a Labor Government.

    Very reliable time piece, barometer, seismic calculator and weather vane is my clock.

  7. I think WA Labor has one more term in them.

    A lot of their massive projects are just beginning or only a few years in.

    There is no reasonable case to change government.

    The media, led by that idiot Van Onselen keep on going on about Barnett as some sort of messiah – when the electorate see him as a twat.

    Van Onselen wrote a ridiculous article in todays Sunday Times saying Buswell is future premiership material and that Colin Barnetts decision to make him shadow treasurer was a good one.

  9. Er, no… the place is named Scarborough. Go there on a Friday or Saturday night to discover where its nickname comes from. 😉

  11. There’s a lot of funny names of roads or wheat bins between Goomalling and Dalwallinu… well, funny to my 10 yr old ears, anyway. Konnongorring, Kalguddering, Gabbyquoiquoi, Byberding, Botherling… reading some of those signs makes that very boring drive almost OK. And I’ve had picnics on salt lakes or granite outcrops up that way a few times, so can confirm it’s definitely Dam boring. 😉

    Also, there’s a siding called ‘Bowelling’, down near Collie. Who thought up that one?

  12. 57 SeanofPerth: yes indeed. And the problem for the Libs is, in 2008 Labor can say ‘Look what we’re in the middle of doing’; in 2012 / 2013 at the next election, they’ll be saying ‘Look what we’ve done’. New desal plant, new hospital at Murdoch, etc. Even if the Libs call the day after they lose this election day zero, say goodbye to at least three of their recent leaders and get a bunch of new people in (I’d expect a few of them that come into parliament at this election to go straight into shadow positions), it’s going to make life hard for them if Labor keeps on track (ie: if the govt doesn’t turn into something like NSW, and the Brian Burke issue doesn’t get any worse).

  13. Yah! Disasterboy (and wouldn’t people love to know how you got that moniker…)

    But Buster@46 and his comments re brothels and local government: amendments here in NSW do actually place regulatory powers with local councils. In parts of the city this has even worked well. What hasn’t is the changes made by the ALP & Fred Nile (and pursued by brothel industry) against private/independent workers. These were aimed to force prostitutes into brothel work – which it has to be said is less safe, more discriminatory, less healthy and more prone to corruption than is the case for many private workers. But the brothel industry has long pockets and longer memories (and very good lobbyists).

    A good progressive council would have no problem with have control, so long as local residents were aware of the regulations, were involved in the debates and understood the ramifications. The case of Marrickville Council in NSW is a case in point.

    But in terms of them making a fuss about it – well, I suspect they wont want to make too much of a fuss really. They may dislike the changes because it removes any control they have now, which may lead to brothels being opened where residents don’t want it, but the police feel is contained and do want it. But there will also be Council elections in May and I can imagine some Councillors getting cold feet about making a big fuss!

  15. OK
    Stewart J: just a sample to make the point about wherever I go I call DISASTER:

    1. Invasion of Czechoslovakia by 5 Armies
    2. Communal Violence, Sri Lanka
    3. Plutonium leak kills 2 directly, Japan
    4. 7.3 Richter Scale Earthquake Oaxaca, Mexico
    5. Hurricane Floyd Florida+ , USA
    6. Major Flooding, California
    7. White Nile Virus Outbreak NY, NY, USA
    8. Major Flooding, Java
    9. Biggest Sandstorms on record: Gansu, China
    10. Anti Western Alliance riots in Kyrgyzstan, people shot
    11. Anti Japanese Soccer Team riots in Moscow, someone trampled to Death
    12. Avalanches, Washington State, USA
    13. Chaiten Volcano erupts, Chile

    I’m in WA, I wonder how this State Election will go?
    I know: we’re gonna end up with a bunch of bloody politicians running the show! Isn’t that always the way. 😉 Disaster!

  16. [Van Onselen wrote a ridiculous article in todays Sunday Times saying Buswell is future premiership material and that Colin Barnetts decision to make him shadow treasurer was a good one.]

    You’re right about that article – what a joke. Van Onselen cannot be seen as being objective, being a former Howard Govt Staffer.

    And I love how the Perth Now commentators go on about the ABC being the propaganda arm of the ALP when their Breakfast Announcer was a FORMER LIberal Member for Stirling, and Grant Woodhams, the Nationals Member for Greenough was until he entered Parliament working for Aunty in Gearldton.

  17. [But Buster@46 and his comments re brothels and local government: amendments here in NSW do actually place regulatory powers with local councils. In parts of the city this has even worked well. What hasn’t is the changes made by the ALP & Fred Nile (and pursued by brothel industry) against private/independent workers. These were aimed to force prostitutes into brothel work – which it has to be said is less safe, more discriminatory, less healthy and more prone to corruption than is the case for many private workers. But the brothel industry has long pockets and longer memories (and very good lobbyists).]

    Indeed,

    I note that according to Ch 10 News, the LIberal plan is to move Brothels to Entertainment Districts like Northbridge.

    So does that means Colin wants to bring KIngs Cross to Perth – that would discourage more people from going to Northbridge, especiall families if they have to put up with Prostitutes and Pimps plying their weares next to Timezone in James St 🙂

  21. [what were the ads like?]

    Good and straight to the point, it was the same ad twice I think, and they mentioned reduction of Greenhouse Gasses with the expansion of the Rail Network etc.

  23. The Mesmarealda on the WA Election 🙂

    [The shock Northern Territory election result will be followed by a similar swing against Labor at the September 6 West Australian election, the federal opposition says.

    Acting Opposition Leader Julie Bishop said today the NT result, in which the Labor government suffered a massive swing of nine per cent against it, was a clear message to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that Australians were seeking better government.

    She said it was also a message to state and territory governments around the country that people were “sick and tired of the incompetence and arrogance, mismanagement of Labor government”.

    “It’s a massive swing – the biggest against Labor in the territory’s history,” Ms Bishop told AAP.

    She said Labor governments were raising expectations and not taking the necessary tough decisions.

    “People see through it,” she said.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=90324

  24. [Like Frank says, positive ads featuring Carpenter outlining the government’s achievements. Quite effective, I thought.]

    Have you recorded them for youtubing William ?

  25. And I note that the ads are Authorised by Alan Carpenter himself, and not Bill Johnston which is strange – no doubt to emphasis that “The Buck Stops With Me”.

  29. [And I note that the ads are Authorised by Alan Carpenter himself, and not Bill Johnston which is strange – no doubt to emphasis that “The Buck Stops With Me”.]

    Could this have something to do with Bill Johnson being a candidate this time around? Or as Frank says, that the campaign is Alan’s domain?

  30. Perhaps since Bill has publicly discussed difficulties telling the difference between cheques and cash perhaps they have found some other role for him, folding leaflets perhaps.

  31. It might be because Bill is the candidate for Cannington. Though then they would just have Simon Mead use his name as acting secretary.

  32. [Perhaps since Bill has publicly discussed difficulties telling the difference between cheques and cash perhaps they have found some other role for him, folding leaflets perhaps.]

    Actually you can still pay in person with cash at Head office, which I did, even though I’m wheelchair bound, it was no great hassle – the person behind the desk even came down to let me in at the rear which entrance which was security locked, also they ask for photo ID, I only had my Pensior Concession Card, which was accepted and was photocopied and attached to my renewal form.

    I believe the no cash at branch level was implemented so as to prevent branch stacking where a candidate or similar person would get people to sign blank membership forms and the person doing the stacking would just hand over a wad of their own cash with no questions asked.

  34. The ALP do not have candidates for ten seats of their website.

    Does this mean they are not running candidates in those seats????

  35. [The ALP do not have candidates for ten seats of their website.

    Does this mean they are not running candidates in those seats????]

    And neither do the Libs have 14 candidates pre-selected. No doubt they will be pre-selected and be nominated by this Friday when Nominations close.

  37. Not much to report from The West. Front page lead is “Premier denies early poll a danger”, referring to the NT election; also an unlikely sounding story about the Nationals weighing their options on preferences. On page six there’s a strange piece by John Halden (former Labor MP and now lobbyist), who suggests a majority of less than 17 will be a bad result for Labor and says Ben Wyatt will be Premier at the next election – I’m not sure if he’s joking.

  38. [On page six there’s a strange piece by John Halden (former Labor MP and now lobbyist), who suggests a majority of less than 17 will be a bad result for Labor and says Ben Wyatt will be Premier at the next election – I’m not sure if he’s joking.]

    Gees, I wonder if he’s yanking The West’s chain because of the big brouhaha over being ordered to withdraw as Karen Brown’s Campaign Manager when (according to Crikey) “had boasted of receiving leaked Cabinet information ” ?

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20080721-lobbyist-reg.html

  39. There’s quite a lot on Colin Barnett, Diedre Willmott and Sue Walker in the Subiaco Post (Sat 9th Aug). That paper seems to be pro-Walker and anti-West Australian (the paper, not the political party 😛 ).

  40. [There’s quite a lot on Colin Barnett, Diedre Willmott and Sue Walker in the Subiaco Post (Sat 9th Aug). That paper seems to be pro-Walker and anti-West Australian (the paper, not the political party 😛 ).]

    Yep, Brett Christian is a very vocal critic of Paul Armstrong, and in fact was a guest on Liam Bartlett’s show on the ABC and I think Paul was a guest with Brett and with all the listeners ringing and complaining about The West, Paul then refused to be on ABC radio ever since.

    btw, you can download a pdf copy of the paper (big download) here:

    http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/20080809/20080809.pdf

  41. jasmine @273
    stewart @5

    the Stygians were three witches from Greek mythology, who had only one eye and one tooth between them, and had to take turns.

    yes, it is probably a bit sexist, but Roberts, McHale and Quirk used to hang around together and if you had ever been trapped in a room with them when they were on the chardonnay, you would understand the metaphor.

    not my invention – they were given that name by someone within the House.

  43. [Swan Hills Labor polling – 69% said Liberals not ready to govern]

    I wouldn’t be surprised considering the comments the Liberal Candidate said when he was Councillor about Ellenbrook residents should be paying for their own gardens in the suburb, instead of the City of Swan, aka an Ellenbrook only tax.

  44. Carpenter says he will serve a full term if re-elected

    The Premier Alan Carpenter says he has no intention of retiring during the next term of parliament

    In a comment piece published today, the former ALP state secretary, John Halden said Labor backbencher, Ben Wyatt will be Premier in four years.

    Mr Carpenter says there are no special deals for a handover to Mr Wyatt and he has promised to stay put for the next term of parliament.

    “I love doing what I’m doing, it’s an amazing experience and I’ve got absolutely no intention of giving it away,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/11/2331279.htm

    Looks like the Libs got carried away with themselves.

  45. That’s bizarre. Out of all Labor MP’s, why Ben Wyatt? He replaced a premier in Vic Park, but that’s about it.

  46. [That’s bizarre. Out of all Labor MP’s, why Ben Wyatt? He replaced a premier in Vic Park, but that’s about it.]

    Young, Bright, Indigineous (he’s the son of Cedric Wyatt, who once stood for the Libs no less), has obviously very little baggage.

  47. And Bob Kucera is Quitting Politics, which is one less headache for the ALP.

    [Former Labor Minister Bob Kucera will not contest the September 6 election.

    Mr Kucera will announce at midday that he has decided to end his career in politics after a family meeting over the weekend.

    The former Health Minister, who jumped ship from Labor in May accusing the government of arrogance and complancy, had been expected to nominate for the new seat of Nollamara. ]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=90493

  48. Libs to save RPH.

    [A vote for Liberal would mean a vote to keep Royal Perth Hospital open, Liberal health spokesman Kim Hames says.

    Dr Hames and Liberal leader Colin Barnett said if elected the Liberals would spend $20 million in their first term of government to plan a new emergency department for RPH.

    The new section of the hospital would then be built in a second term of government at a cost of $550 million.

    It would provide an additional 220-bed emergency department linked to the existing hospital near the rail line on Wellington Street, to create a 400-bed major trauma centre equivalent to Melbourne’s Royal Alfred Hospital.

    “I can’t believe Jim McGinty and Alan Carpenter plan to close this hospital down as a tertiary hospital,” Dr Hames said.

    “We will save Royal Perth Hospital.

    “This is a chance to say ‘get lost’ to Jim McGinty… vote Liberal and you’ll save Royal Perth Hospital.”]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/we-will-save-royal-perth-liberals-20080811-3tdq.html

  49. This does NOT look good – there goes any preference deal with the libs.

    [The Liberal Leader Colin Barnett has cancelled a meeting with Nationals’ Brendan Grylls, saying he will not particpate in a Nationals ‘stunt’.

    Mr Grylls had planned to offer Mr Barnett the Nationals’ preferences at the coming election if he agreed to support the Nationals ‘Royalties to the Regions’ policy.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/11/2331321.htm

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