WA election minus 28 days

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to go showed that even with Buswell as leader the party would have retained Bunbury (Liberal-held but notionally Labor post-redistribution) and won the notionally knife-edge new eastern suburbs seat of Kalamunda. However, they were trailing slightly in the must-win seats of Albany (Labor-held but now notionally Liberal) and Kingsley (northern suburbs, Labor-held, notionally line-ball). A report from Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the poll showed them winning all four if Barnett was leader, by a margin of 60-40 in Bunbury. However, Taylor also reports Labor polling is believed to give them a “nice buffer”.

• Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter. The formerly estranged Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs (members for Hillarys and Roe, with the latter set to contest the new seat of Eyre) are back on the board.

• It now seems likely the Liberals will be unable to accommodate Deidre Willmott, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry policy adviser who had to abandon Cottesloe so Colin Barnett could shelve his retirement plans. This leaves the Liberals with a grand total of four female lower house candidates out of the 43 nominated so far: Liza Harvey in the marginal Liberal new northern suburbs seat of Scarborough, Andrea Mitchell and Milly Zuvella in Kingsley and Joondalup further north (respectively line-ball and marginal Labor) and Ruth Webb-Smith in long-shot Kimberley.

• Today’s West Australian reports that outgoing Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas is ruing her decision to retire, made on the day Troy Buswell became leader. Hodson-Thomas complained Buswell had made “inappropriate comments” to her in front of male colleagues.

• The West Australian’s Gary Adshead reports that Sue Walker, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Nedlands, is yet to have nominated for the election, prompting speculation she was “throwing in the towel”. Walker responded by telling Adshead that a man had come into her electorate office to say her “life was in danger”, but that “providing there’s nothing that stands between me and the close of nominations, I intend to nominate”.

• Alan Carpenter has announced a re-elected Labor government will spend $160 million rebuilding Albany Regional Hospital, after earlier committing only to a $55 million redevelopment. Albany was won by Labor in 2001 and retained by a 1.4 per cent margin in 2005, but the one-vote one-value redistribution has turned it into a 2.3 per cent Liberal seat by expanding it into rural areas beyond the city limits.

• In other policy news, the Kimberley canal is officially off the agenda of a first-term Liberal government. Word is that the once-bitten twice-shy Barnett will pursue a “small target” strategy.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can my read quick overview from today’s email. The upshot is that the Liberals are a better chance than the $4.25 being offered by Centrebet suggests.

UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

340 comments on “WA election minus 28 days”

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  1. Fulvio, the West wouldn’t support uranium mining though would they? Do you know if they supported the canal last election?

    From memory they paid out on Barnett big time as soon as he mentioned the Canal, up until then they were hailing him as the Lib’s saviour against Gallop, kind of like how they treated Buswell once the Chairsniffing came to light – upset Armstrong, and you’re a dead man walking, he takes things personally BIG TIME.

  2. So lying for political gain is fine in your book Frank, you are sounding lots like a Howard man.

    Stop twisting my words around, you know full well what I meant !! You’re more the Howard girl than I’d ever be a Howard Man, especially on Uranium Mining.

  3. I’d have thought that the West would have tried to keep the focus on deregulated trading hours like we have had in Queensland for years as the pro business pro liberal slant but I suppose that once Barnett dropped the trading hours ball, all that is left will be uranium mining and Laura Norda.

    They are the last two desperate issues whenever the conservatives are finding the going tough.

  4. Steve, I think Jasmine is just honest, and is expressing her doubts about the way to go forward.

    I must admit that a month or two ago I seriously considered whether nuclear power was a safer option than the risks of climate change, and while I concluded that it wasn’t, I respect the views of others who think differently.

    I can’t remember if the West supported the canal. I was too busy laughing at the stupidity of the proposal, to be honest.

    But if the infant editor was in charge at the time he would have wholeheartedly supported everything the dejure Liberal party leader said. If Barnett had publicly broken wind after a night on the turps it would have been hailed in the West as a refreshing change in atmosphere…

  5. I’d have thought that the West would have tried to keep the focus on deregulated trading hours like we have had in Queensland for years as the pro business pro liberal slant but I suppose that once Barnett dropped the trading hours ball

    Except for a Robert Taylor piece in the dead tree version slamming both sides for not supporting full de-regulation, onlky Perth Now have done an online piece comparing China’s trading hours to ours, and all the naysayers came out and declared that even Carp’s Clayton reforms would be the end of modern civilisation.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24170161-948,00.html

  6. your words didn’t need twisting Frank.

    And Frank other than Carps says, can you explain the uranium mining policy of Labor around the country and identify the underlying belief or rational for it at a state and federal level. Come on labor people can count higher than three.

  8. Frank
    if jasmine is the redoubtable jasmine a of oz politics fame ,i can assure you that she is not a howard fan
    (from memory jas slayed many a fib pre election-especially the despicable fonz)

  11. And Frank other than Carps says, can you explain the uranium mining policy of Labor around the country and identify the underlying belief or rational for it at a state and federal level. Come on labor people can count higher than three.

    Jasmine, you just CANNOT get it don’t you, politically, it is suicide to even consider it for the simple fact of leakage and storage of nuclear waste, plus the fact that in the wrong hands it can be used to produce nuclear weapons which could be used against us in a time of war.

    If you can live with that on your concience – fine.

    I won’t.

  12. Jasmine, it’s because it is such a vexing issue, a choice of be damned or be damned, that there is such a divergence of views on the issue, even within the Labor party (or, to be fair, within the Liberal Party for that matter).

    Neither you or Frank are entitled to the high moral ground.

  13. Ummmm Frank I’m taking uranium mining – you know that thing that happens in SA and the NT; and I’m pretty sure Australia exports it, so my dear it is already on your conscience as you are Australian and we sell the stuff already.

    That is why I don’t get your position. If there had been a consistent no uranium mining policy applied by labor I would have more trouble than I do.

    But it makes no sense to me. And yes it could be used against us in a nuclear war and there would be an irony I might not be alive to appreciate it if it was.

  14. Ummmm Frank I’m taking uranium mining – you know that thing that happens in SA and the NT; and I’m pretty sure Australia exports it, so my dear it is already on your conscience as you are Australian and we sell the stuff already.

    Buut we are talking about WA here, not SA/NT, if they want to pollute their land – let them go right ahead.

    I do NOT want WA to go the way of SA/NT and I support both Gallop & now Carpenter in that regard.

  15. you are right Fulvio there is no moral high ground and even if there was one they are soooo boring.

    And I don’t think it is politically bad, I think if sold right it would be a net positive for the libs. Politically they can make carps look stupid; it is ok for families to pay the bills based on uranium mining in SA; it is ok for mortgages to be paid based on uranium mining in the NT, but Mr Carpenter thinks you have it so well that we don’t need a whole new industy…. blah blah blah…. if you aren’t enjoying plummeting house prices vote for Mr Barnett.

  16. Jasmine
    “fonz … how I miss him.”
    apparently his battles with you, arbiejay and the gang have left him a blathering mess (or he lost his seat in parliament!)

    i miss his bullshit scenarios-when he alleged an assault had happened at his workplace and he didnt know what to do because of “labors” unfair dismissal laws, I completely wrote the fool off.

    Your destruction of his quasi economics was always a pleasure to read 🙂

    BTW what is your prediction for WA in terms of seats?

  17. I’ll give up but IMHO Labor lost the uranium mining debate / high ground / any sense of the rationality with the three mines policy.

  18. Yes what did happen to Fonzie, was he banned by William too? I recall he migrated over here with the rest of us for a time…

    Articulate and not afraid of a good natured though abrasive stouch as I recall…

    William’s site was a little more highbrow in those days, but we put an end to that.

  19. And I don’t think it is politically bad, I think if sold right it would be a net positive for the libs. Politically they can make carps look stupid; it is ok for families to pay the bills based on uranium mining in SA; it is ok for mortgages to be paid based on uranium mining in the NT, but Mr Carpenter thinks you have it so well that we don’t need a whole new industy…. blah blah blah…. if you aren’t enjoying plummeting house prices vote for Mr Barnett.

    You have in that statement once and for all, you’d rather sleep with the devil known as the Liberal Party.

    John Curtin would be spinning in his grave.

  21. It’s just not a winner with voters Jasmine, if uranium mining or it’s derivatives had voting power John Howard would still be in power today. It is not the sort of issue that will win an election.

    I fail to see how when the whole focus of the Climate Change debate is about supporting renewable energy that the uranium industry would even get a look-in. The biggest nuclear power countries also happen to be the biggest polluters, the list of nuclear nations and biggest polluters is almost identical. Germany has had nuclear power for years and is closing them all down.

    With the lack of free time available to people today, it’s hard enough to find extra time in life without going out to find everything closed.

    This is the sort of issue that business and government can turn in their favour as voters can see an instant benefit at little cost to themselves. Unless you happen to be having Sunday off at the moment and in the future will have to work on a Sunday but that is the way the modern world turns.

  22. I said I’d give up Steve but one last try, I think nuclear power generation is politically stupid, Howard went there, he shouldn’t have (from a pure political pov).

    But mining is different, because we already do it. Yes it feeds the power generation and weapons (you can’t pretend it is all used as paper weights it makes nuclear weapons) but we as a country have been mining it for what more than 20 years and shipping it away. The horse has bolted. Only question is whether WA ignores the resource and the industry or not.

    Remind me is the SA Government not Labor?

    from some SA press release:
    =========================================

    SOUTH AUSTRALIA’S THIRD URANIUM MINE APPROVED

    Friday, 11 January 2008

    Acting Minister for Mineral Resources Development Michael Atkinson announced today that the Uranium One Australia Pty. Ltd. Honeymoon Project has been given the go ahead to begin construction of South Australia’s third uranium mine.

  24. We’ll find out in two weeks time Jasmine whether he was on the right track or it is back to retirement.

    Well it won’t be with the help of Greens Preferences 🙂

  27. It’s shaping up to be one of the best stoushes for a long time. Luckily I’m far enough away to not get lost in the petty detail but this WA election after the lull following the Olympics should be a knock ’em down and drag ’em out affair in the last two weeks when the heat and pressure gets applied.

    I think the wakeup call to Labor from the NT election won’t be missed either and the CLP probably did the WA Libs no good by scaring the horses and letting Labor know they have to work hard for every vote.

  29. No wonder the Liberals look as though they believe in nothing – they have wiped the slate clean.

    [The Liberal Party admitted all policies released prior to Colin Barnett becoming leader on August 6 had been removed at his instruction. Mr Barnett said he wanted to review all material.

    “I wiped the slate clean,” Mr Barnett said.

    “It doesn’t mean policies are discarded, some will be reconfirmed. But all policies are being assessed. They will be either reinstated or adjusted.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24183478-5006789,00.html

  31. The Liberal Party admitted all policies released prior to Colin Barnett becoming leader on August 6 had been removed at his instruction. Mr Barnett said he wanted to review all material.

    And according to Inside Cover, the Education Policy released yesterday had on it’s front cover a picture of the Exclusive Guildford Grammer School – not a local Govt School.

  32. And the Libs have lost the Teacher’s vote despite the current pay dispute not being finalised.

    The State School Teachers’ Union has warned that any move to give principals the power to hire and fire staff would be met with great resistance from teachers.

    The Opposition promised yesterday that if elected it would give greater responsibilities to principals and cut the level of centralised bureaucracy in the Education Department.

    However, the President of the State School Teachers’ Union, Anne Gisborne, says the policy would make it more difficult for schools in low socio-economic areas and less desirable locations to attract teachers.

    “We have got issues with teacher shortages and the deployment of staffing being left at local decision making will only exacerbate problems,” she said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/15/2336094.htm

  33. Found this on one of the WA Threads over at LP by Waybe Thompson – Independent Candidate for Carine.

    Here are the last few paragraphs.

    The current W.A. State Government has proven to be the most ignorant, arrogant and self-indulgent group of under-performers this State has ever seen in its history.
    The jails must all be full because most people charged over the last few years are getting away with murder – literally! The elderly continue to be bashed, and robbed, and violated – and crime seems to go on unabated. It would seem there is no longer respect for the uniform of those who are there to protect us, and worse yet there seems to be little or no respect, and/or protection for them in our courts and legal systems. Our hospitals continue to be choking under immense and seemingly endless pressure, and our education system apparently is still under threat from a disgruntled Teaching fraternity.

    And for all of that, the Carpenter Government wants us to give them another 4 Years in office.

    The State Opposition by their own admission have been a shambles while all this has played out and been allowed to continue. Internal bickering and posturing,
    the knives and hatchets have been savage and ruthless for some – and as a Party, they’ve lost a lot of respectability, experience and momentum as a result.

    Forget the endless ‘Spin’ – we just continue to go around and around, and before you know it we are right back where we started quite some years ago – or often even worse.

    This election is the most important election this State has ever faced, or will face for a long, long time. Financially the State has probably never been better off – but the culture that has been created is not only wrong, it’s out of control. For us all to live the lives that we aspire to live on the road ahead, the right decisions need to be made in this next term of Government. With some common logic and your endorsement, I believe I can create enough of a voice in Parliament to make the difference, and to help make it happen.

    Vote 1 – Wayne Thompson (Independent) – Carine (North Metropolitan) State Election 2008

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/07/day-1-of-the-wa-state-electionand-were-all-bored-already/#comment-496193

  34. A Westpoll is out. Libs leading in four out of five marginals and one a dead heat.

    [An extensive Westpoll of five key marginal seats shows that Colin Barnett’s rejuvenated Liberal Party is capable of grabbing an unlikely election victory when the state votes in three weeks time.

    The Liberals lead in four of the marginals polled and in the other one are in a deadheat with Labor.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=506582

  35. A Westpoll is out. Libs leading in four out of five marginals and one a dead heat.

    Meh, only polled 400 voters in each seat, what’s the bet they picked the most liberal part of the seat to call 🙂

  36. And further down the article it don’t look good for the Libs, and it corresponds with the Swan Hills polling that was leaked to Peter Kennedy earlier in the week.

    Pollster Keith Patterson said the two-party preferred statewide vote which polled another 400 voters would be reversed if the Liberals and Nationals agreed to a coalition.

    But Mr Patterson said the disparity between those people saying they would vote Liberal but believing Labor would win the election should have conservatives supporters worried.

    When asked who they thought would form the government after the election 64 per cent of those polled said Labor while only 23 per cent said Liberal with the help of the Nationals.

    “I think the voter sentiment is they really want to prod Alan Carpenter to get his act together and create a decent government but they have no confidence in the ability of the Liberals to be able to do that either and I think the figures could move quite materially,” said Mr Patterson.

    “I think if people see these figures and really believe that the Liberals could win they could move back to Labor. At this stage I think there’s a real sentiment out there that Alan Carpenter and Labor need to be taught a lesson.”

    But Mr Patterson said to hold on to their lead the Liberals would have to convince people over the next three weeks that they have the team to be an effective government.

    “And I think that’s a fairly significant challenge,” he said.

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