WA election minus 28 days

Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to go showed that even with Buswell as leader the party would have retained Bunbury (Liberal-held but notionally Labor post-redistribution) and won the notionally knife-edge new eastern suburbs seat of Kalamunda. However, they were trailing slightly in the must-win seats of Albany (Labor-held but now notionally Liberal) and Kingsley (northern suburbs, Labor-held, notionally line-ball). A report from Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the poll showed them winning all four if Barnett was leader, by a margin of 60-40 in Bunbury. However, Taylor also reports Labor polling is believed to give them a “nice buffer”.

• Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter. The formerly estranged Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs (members for Hillarys and Roe, with the latter set to contest the new seat of Eyre) are back on the board.

• It now seems likely the Liberals will be unable to accommodate Deidre Willmott, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry policy adviser who had to abandon Cottesloe so Colin Barnett could shelve his retirement plans. This leaves the Liberals with a grand total of four female lower house candidates out of the 43 nominated so far: Liza Harvey in the marginal Liberal new northern suburbs seat of Scarborough, Andrea Mitchell and Milly Zuvella in Kingsley and Joondalup further north (respectively line-ball and marginal Labor) and Ruth Webb-Smith in long-shot Kimberley.

• Today’s West Australian reports that outgoing Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas is ruing her decision to retire, made on the day Troy Buswell became leader. Hodson-Thomas complained Buswell had made “inappropriate comments” to her in front of male colleagues.

• The West Australian’s Gary Adshead reports that Sue Walker, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Nedlands, is yet to have nominated for the election, prompting speculation she was “throwing in the towel”. Walker responded by telling Adshead that a man had come into her electorate office to say her “life was in danger”, but that “providing there’s nothing that stands between me and the close of nominations, I intend to nominate”.

• Alan Carpenter has announced a re-elected Labor government will spend $160 million rebuilding Albany Regional Hospital, after earlier committing only to a $55 million redevelopment. Albany was won by Labor in 2001 and retained by a 1.4 per cent margin in 2005, but the one-vote one-value redistribution has turned it into a 2.3 per cent Liberal seat by expanding it into rural areas beyond the city limits.

• In other policy news, the Kimberley canal is officially off the agenda of a first-term Liberal government. Word is that the once-bitten twice-shy Barnett will pursue a “small target” strategy.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can my read quick overview from today’s email. The upshot is that the Liberals are a better chance than the $4.25 being offered by Centrebet suggests.

UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

340 comments on “WA election minus 28 days”

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  1. [Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter.]

    Exactly, the CCC may make mention about the role Noel Chrichton-Browne has with Brian Burke, and NCB’s influence with Troy Buswell, John McGrath & Anthony Fels.

  2. Here’s one of the funnier stories of the election campaign so far about the bitterness between the WA Premier and the Opposition Leader. I haven’t heard this story before but it is beginning to look like Barnett and election campaigns just do not seem to fit together well. Indeed the master of imploding election campaigns Lawrence Springborg would have been proud of this effort.

    [The 2001 election campaign exchange looked like it might get physical when Mr Barnett, then the West Australian education minister, was baited by Mr Carpenter, then the Opposition education spokesman, over his decision to enrol his youngest son in a private school.

    Mr Barnett swiped papers at Mr Carpenter, narrowly missing him, and a shouting match followed.

    The Gallop government won the election the following day and Mr Carpenter became education minister.

    He delighted in reminding parliament of his predecessor’s alleged failings with scoreboard-style charts he called a Spendometer and taunts such as, “I warn Opposition members: if they do not want to know the score, look away now.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24150950-5006789,00.html

  3. Frank,

    you’re aware that the CCC already cleared Buswell of anything inappropriate (long ago) as well as McGrath (more recent) of any wrongdoing? My understanding is the coming CCC report centres firmly on the Carpenter governemnt’s links with Burke and co – things including stories that have been covered yet unresolved like Carpenter’s involvement at a Burke fundraiser for Ben Wyatt, Mark McGowan and Fran Logan engaging Burke for fundraising and campaign direction (this is the one from the Sunday Times where McGowan tried hiding it by using his wife’s email address). There likely be info on Archer links as well as Ljiljanna Ravlich involvement which was briefly touched on in a previous report but not in any detail.

    The CCC has been working this up for a long time. Remember, it had already seized Burke’s computers when the Oppossition revealed the Burke/Fong email thing that eventually dragged McGinty in in the cover up and led to Fong resigning.

  4. I also note that on the Albany Hospital the Opposition also announced their plans yesterday which had it finished by 2012 instead of the 2015 announced by the gov’t. Not sure if you have been following it, but the Libs have been going hard on this in Albany for months and thier plan is apparently based on a leaked governmnet document.

  5. Jasmine @273 in the previous thread

    Stygians would be under-dwellers, from the River Styx, which you cross to enter the Greek underworld.

  6. Yeah thanks Stewart, google and wiki helped overcome my lack of classics education and memory but I was trying to work out exactly why that group of MP’s was being blessed with that description?

  7. Jasmine

    Good question – maybe skink is making a sexist remark after all…or he thinks they are all demonic, infernal, hellish…or is it a factional think (don’t know anymore who’s in what faction in WA)?

  8. Dont know how much the Burke thing will damage Carpenter, if at all. Could be more than balanced out by the fact that NCB is sill a power in the Libs. Liz constable should run a a Lib.

    Buswell may have been cleared by the CCC, but he is still the chair sniffer, and people wont forget, that when the Libs had the chance to make the statement and dump him, they choked, and kept him on. Barnett seems to be there only try and beat Carpenter, not to be Premier, and so the ALP will still be able to keep up the scare. Maybe Buswell will be back if the Libs win and then set about carving each other up??

    The ALP is i think a bit vulnerable on Environmental isssues as they have been very, very supportive of development in the north regardless. Still, for most people they seem to be a party that has got things done. Desal plants (1.5 so far), Perth to Mandurah rail (opposed by the libs and now very popular with the punters) work for them. The redistrubution and deserved desertion by the Nats (who may be realizing that they have more in common with the ALP, finally) works for them. I reckon the ALP over here have 1 more term in them before they implode and make the libs look adequate.

  9. Urgh after the page of the west this morning harping on about libs allowing weeknight trading…

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/09/2329873.htm

    Libs won’t commit to trading hours changes

    Colin Barnett

    The Opposition Leader Colin Barnet says he will not commit to any changes to trading hours in the lead-up to the state election.

    Mr Barnett says he would like to see stores opening later on week nights but would not make any changes without extensive consultation with all of the interested parties…

  10. “Will Constable now be running as a Liberal candidate,”

    Surely Liz will join the National Party to bring steadiness, bearing in mind Gough’s famous quote of course.

  11. [Urgh after the page of the west this morning harping on about libs allowing weeknight trading…]

    What a backflip – no doubt he’s been advised that the IGA would campaign against/withdraw funds from the Libs if they went ahead with it.

  12. And here is how The West reported the policy announcement re Trading Hours.

    [Meanwhile the Liberal Party made its first policy announcement with a noon media conference.

    Liberal Leader Colin Barnett promised “to discuss extending weekday shopping hours” with retailers and retail and employment groups and fix irregular weekend trading.

    But the promise to discuss does not apply to lifting the ban on major grocery chains opening on Sundays nor does it amount to an election promise to do anything other than talk.

    “No it’s not (a commitment). I respect the decision of the WA people in the referendum, but I respect there are anomalies,” Mr Barnett said.

    “What I have said is I would sit down constructively, with all the parties in the view to negotiate a consensus agreement to extend weekday trading.”]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=90109

    How wishy-washy is that – and from the so-called party of Free-Enterprise and Choice.

  13. Carpenter has bailed on trading hours too

    Instead of his initial pledge to deregulate completely he’s going to make more places in the city ‘tourism precinct’s to allow them to open on sunday as well letting homeware and white goods retailers open

  14. [Carpenter has bailed on trading hours too

    Instead of his initial pledge to deregulate completely he’s going to make more places in the city ‘tourism precinct’s to allow them to open on sunday as well letting homeware and white goods retailers open]

    At least it’s more concrete than “Considering & Consulting”

  15. It’s still very dissapointing. There are facebook groups with thousands of members supporting deregulation. I guess its to quell a political backlash (politcally from the conservative media and the surpisingly influential IGA), but at the end of the day its embarassing that this is still an issue given all other states have sorted it out.

  16. [I guess its to quell a political backlash (politcally from the conservative media and the surpisingly influential IGA), but at the end of the day its embarassing that this is still an issue given all other states have sorted it out.]

    Exactly, and it eventually was revealed that the person behind the IGA campaign was none other than Brian Burke, and Bob Maumill was involved as well.

    So it is very hypocritical for Barnett to associate Burke with the ALP, when in fact his tentacles have spread to NCB, who until Tuesday was still writing in Crikey supporting Buswell.

  17. Another article coming out 2mw as well showing a letter form the sniffer victim to Buswell last december. Has her saying she supports him and that he needs to go on etc. Says she began to really hate him when he started denying the incident early this year, Full of quotes from pathetic Liberals saying it proves Buswell is perfect, a saint and a larrakin and that all sexual assault victims are liars and whores

  18. [Another article coming out 2mw as well showing a letter form the sniffer victim to Buswell last december. Has her saying she supports him and that he needs to go on etc. Says she began to really hate him when he started denying the incident early this year, Full of quotes from pathetic Liberals saying it proves Buswell is perfect, a saint and a larrakin and that all sexual assault victims are liars and whores]

    That won’t go down well amongst Women voters at all, How stupid is that ?

  19. Some quotes

    “if she was so offended by the original incident, why did she send him such a glowing letter? Then she goes berserk five months later”

    “jokes gone wrong”

    “he would never try to offend someone”

  20. Its coming up now in the 2nd section of this article

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24153744-948,00.html

    Labor’s five-year plan for law and order

    EXCLUSIVE: PREMIER Alan Carpenterwill today unveil a $100 million plan to attract more police officers to WA.

    Acknowledging law and order as a major election issue, Mr Carpenter will announce one of Labor’s biggest election commitments — 500 extra police officers over the next five years.

    Labor’s police policy will also include commitments to new police stations and additional resources.

    Labor will tell voters today that it has already boosted police numbers by more than 600 to 5380 since it came to power in 2001.

  21. [Conservatives revealed plans yesterday to repeal the Prostitution Amendment Bill 2007, if elected.

    Liberal leader Colin Barnett and police spokesman Rob Johnson said brothels would still be regulated, but they would only be allowed to operate in areas approved by the State Government _ not local councils.

    They said it was ludicrous that the decision on where brothels should be located rested with councils.

    “A Liberal government will not allow the spreading of brothels throughout the suburbs and towns of WA,” Mr Barnett said. ]

    Hmm, That’s not going to go over well with Local Govt.

  22. [It is understood Subiaco could be designated a tourism precinct, as well as Joondalup. ]

    Well Labor has the Northern suburbs Vote stitched up 🙂

  23. […Full of quotes from pathetic Liberals saying it proves Buswell is perfect, a saint and a larrakin and that all sexual assault victims are liars and whores…]

    Well there’s ya problem right there. He’s now Shadow Treasurer. Not exactly a bloke you can hide under a rock.

    Liberal Party? Comedy gold!

  24. [Well there’s ya problem right there. He’s now Shadow Treasurer. Not exactly a bloke you can hide under a rock.

    Liberal Party? Comedy gold!]

    We Know 🙂

  25. [It is understood Subiaco could be designated a tourism precinct, as well as Joondalup. ]

    I don’t know where you got that from, Frank, but if Joondalup’s on the tourist trail, Scabby Beach should be too. In Perth, the possibilities are endless.

    And sadly, no flickr shots down Rockingham way.

  26. [I don’t know where you got that from, Frank, but if Joondalup’s on the tourist trail, Scabby Beach should be too. In Perth, the possibilities are endless.]

    Subi in no doubt because of the Footy at Subiaco , plus compensate people for the closure of the Subi Markets, plus the fact that Homebase Wembley is open on Sundays.

    Joondalup covers areas south like Scab Beach, and north to Butler and surrounding suburbs.

    Now if they made Ellenbrook a Tourist Precinct it would really help the ALP retain Swan Hills 🙂

  27. Swan Valley + Ellenbrook Frank, it wouldn’t do to look like you were just helping a marginal seat after the Premier showed such great support for the very popular local member.

  28. LABOR would have won the crucial seat of Jandakot if an election had been held this week, polling shows.

    The Labor polling was done on Tuesday after Colin Barnett confirmed he was standing for the Liberal leadership, which he clinched the following day.

    It showed Labor securing 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in Jandakot, one of 10 marginal Labor seats in the metropolitan area and a bellwether seat for the September 6 showdown.

    Jandakot is a mortgage-belt constituency with a 3.5 per cent margin, and whichever side wins it is tipped to win the election.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24155022-5017005,00.html

  29. SeanOfPerth:

    I Note Peter Van Onsolen is still banking on a Liberal Win, but I think tomorrow’s article re Buswell’s letter and the blaming of the woman will change the way the election will move.

  30. Chair-sniff victim was a Buswell fan

    EXCLUSIVE: Paul Lampathakis
    August 09, 2008 05:00pm
    THE woman whose chair-sniffing revelations helped end Troy Buswell’s leadership supported him after the incident and urged him to stay in politics.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24153351-2761,00.html

    I dont think its as bad as it seemed when I read it on my phone, but it does reek of trying to discredit the victim.

    By the way there are also rumours that revelations of Buswells former sexual harrassment issues while in local government will come to light during the campaign.

    Hopefully it would force Barnett to humiliatingly dump Buswell from the front bench during the campaign, wonderful show of judgment

  31. [ dont think its as bad as it seemed when I read it on my phone, but it does reek of trying to discredit the victim.]

    Of course they are trying to discredit her, that’s the modus operandi of sexual offenders/harrassers and their supporters.

    [By the way there are also rumours that revelations of Buswells former sexual harrassment issues while in local government will come to light during the campaign.

    Hopefully it would force Barnett to humiliatingly dump Buswell from the front bench during the campaign, wonderful show of judgment]

    But who has he got left to replace Buswell with – will look very shabby indeed.

  32. also, not sure if anybody has notices, but on Watoday and Perthnow Labor has already been running ads

    Shows the words Vision then Stability then Leadership then Carpsy.

    This is Labors campaign website http://www.visionwa.org.au/

    So the theme is “Vision. Stability. Leadership.”

    Great use of words I would think, it’s everything the Liberals don’t have.

  33. [also, not sure if anybody has notices, but on Watoday and Perthnow Labor has already been running ads]

    They mentioned that on the ABC TV News last night and noted that while the libs will be using Youtube, the ALP have said they won’t be using youtube because of the inability to control comments, though it has to be said you can disable comments on Youtube.

  34. [I would have been a talking head on that ABC report, if only I’d had my mobile with me when called.]

    You silly boy 🙂 But be grateful it wasn’t one given to you by Brian Burke 🙂

  35. This general discussion seems to be degenerating into some kind of love in between a couple of Labor staffers. Do you people get a bonus for each post?Can’t wait for your positive spin on the NT result.
    Frank, as for local government being annoyed about Barnett wanting to amend McGinty’s ‘2 workers in a brothel in the suburbs’ my reading of it is that local government doesn’t want anything to do with it. Can you imagine a mob of councillors supervising the local knocker shop. I haven’t heard of any local government who considers McGinty’s idea as any less crazy than most of the other things he does. Carpenter obviously has some sense, he didn’t even consult him on when to call the election.

  36. Shock Horror, Kids Selling Chocolates like Drugs 🙂

    I’m awaiting for the Libs to promise to employ “Lunchbox Inspectors” to solve the problem.

    [CHILDREN are defying a junk-food ban in school canteens by smuggling in fattening snacks and selling them to classmates.
    Frustrated teachers reveal they are powerless to stop many children who bring unhealthy treats from home in their bags.

    “I’ve even seen them selling chocolates to their classmates at school. It’s almost like they’re dealing drugs,” said a teacher from a prominent Perth southern suburbs public school.

    Education Minister Mark McGowan conceded he could not halt the junk-food flood, even though the Government stopped it from being sold in canteens last year.

    “What students bring to school in their lunchboxes is not covered by the canteen policy,” he said.

    “And we can’t police what foods children bring to school. If teachers notice a particular child selling junk food on the side, I encourage them to alert the school principal.

    “We as a Government can only do so much. It is important parents keep a close eye on their child or children to make sure they are doing the right thing.”

    Obesity was a serious issue, which was why the Carpenter Government required all public school canteens or food services to have healthy menus, Mr McGowan said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24153041-2761,00.html

  37. [This general discussion seems to be degenerating into some kind of love in between a couple of Labor staffers. Do you people get a bonus for each post?Can’t wait for your positive spin on the NT result.]

    A: I am not a staffer, Member of the ALP, Staffer not.

    and secondly, the NT Election is a who different ballgame. as Adam said in the NT thread, that election is a glorified Council Election.

  38. Any official voice of local govt in WA is an extension of the liberal party. If they can’t come out and applaud a canal colin promise, no person can.

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