Where have all the pollsters gone?

• Recent form suggests Roy Morgan has moved from weekly to fortnightly, and it seems the West Australian either didn’t conduct or didn’t publish its normal monthly Westpoll survey of state voting intention.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian wrote yesterday of “special analysis” of Newspoll showing that since the May budget the Prime Minister has suffered “double-digit falls in his popularity among higher-income earners, full-time workers and people aged 35-49”. We are also told the PM “didn’t do as badly among households with children – they trimmed his rating by 7.7 percentage points to 60.9 per cent, while those without children cut it by 10.7 points to 56.8 per cent”; and also that his approval rating among Coalition voters dropped from 40.9 per cent to 28.5 per cent.

• A survey conducted last month by Essential Research shows “93 per cent had either not heard of the emissions trading scheme, had heard about it but didn’t know what it was or knew just a little about it”. However, Chris Johnson of The West Australian reports that “once the concept was explained, respondents overwhelmingly thought it was a good idea. Seventy-two per cent strongly supported the introduction of an ETS and 78 per cent thought transport and petrol should be included.” I see the principals behind Essential Media (the company behind Essential Research) include Ben Oquist, former adviser to Bob Brown and one-time Greens Senate candidate.

• Labor continues to dither over whether to contest the Mayo by-election. No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.

• In the absence of Westpoll we will have to make do with more “unpublished Newspoll figures” provided by Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times, showing “41.9 per cent of 418 Liberals polled preferred Mr Carpenter as Premier, instead of their own man (33.5 per cent)”.

• Tasmanian Greens leader Peg Putt will resign from parliament and has handed the leadership baton to Franklin MP Nick McKim. A recount for Putt’s Denison seat will almost certainly deliver it to Cassy O’Connor, who once worked as an adviser to local federal Labor MP Duncan Kerr. This outcome was anticipated at the time of the March 2006 state election by Greg Barns.

• Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have been blogging prolifically of late. Do go and look.

• In the interests of promoting Aussie talent, the Poll Bludger presents a 1993 Rock Classic from the Cruel Sea.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

344 comments on “Where have all the pollsters gone?”

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  2. Gotta say, “The Hollowmen” was a real let down. Characters were weak and hard to believe. Plot was superficial and lacked any kind of wit or insight. About as subtle and sophisticated as a fart in the bath.
    Felt like Rob Sitch was reprising his role as Mike Moore in Frontline. Really hope it gets better, but I won’t hold my breath. I read a piece about it in the paper which made reference to “Yes Minister” as being part of the inspiration – not even close.

  3. Dario

    I dont say this as a Liberal supporter nor a Howard fan but he does have form with they gun buyback scheme.

    But you are I think still too precious. Surely you come to government with an agenda. I am getting increasingly worried Rudd has no real idea about how to deal with the issues that confront us. Particularly environmental issues including the Murray, and global warming.

    Eventually you have to do something he is not. There is too much hot air for my liking.

  4. Dario

    I dont say this as a Liberal supporter nor a Howard fan but he does have form with the gun buyback scheme.

    But you are I think still too precious. Surely you come to government with an agenda. I am getting increasingly worried Rudd has no real idea about how to deal with the issues that confront us. Particularly environmental issues including the Murray, and global warming.

    Eventually you have to do something he is not. There is too much hot air for my liking.

  5. Colin you made much more sense the second time. I think Rudd has a good understanding of both Global Warming and the Murray but neither are going to be solved overnight. Give him time and see how he goes.

    At least he attempts to keep his election promises, something the Howeird Government never even tried to do.

  6. Agree completely, Optimist. Very disappointing. All I could think was Mike Moore all over again too. ‘Yes, Minister’ it definitely ain’t.

    However, those guys do have a very solid track record, so I’ll cut them some slack for a while and see how it pans out over the next few episodes.

  7. [But you are I think still too precious. Surely you come to government with an agenda. I am getting increasingly worried Rudd has no real idea about how to deal with the issues that confront us. Particularly environmental issues including the Murray, and global warming.]

    Exactly as steve said, those two issues you just mentioned are long term fixes, not overnight dance in the media spotlight events. You worry that he has no idea how to deal with them? He’s doing a darn sight better than Howard did in 12 years. The Murray-Darling deal signed with the States, and the draft Garnaut report delivered with an ETS to be set up in a few years? What more is he supposed to have done exactly?

  8. Just Me,
    me too – hope it gets better. Hard to see how it will though – the dynamics just aren’t right. I realise that they wouldn’t wanna redo Frontline, but they would have benefitted from sticking to a similar dynamic, character-wise.
    In Frontline, we had the near-perfect interaction of the ultra-cynical Prowsey and the idealistic Emma, serving to illustrate how dreadfully manipulative, cheap and patronising the world of current affairs really is – in The Hollowmen, it feels like we have none of that. The characters are unbelievably inept, short-sighted and plain dumb.
    I was expecting to see a sharp depiction of just how calculating and cynical the inner world of politics and policy development really is – I think they tried to say too much and ended up saying very little if anything at all.
    As I said, about as subtle and sophisticated as a fart in the bath.
    They would have done better to study a show like Absolute Power.

  10. They would have done better to study a show like Absolute Power.

    Now there is a great take on power, politics and perception.

  11. Oh Dear, the poor old Pineapple Party seems to have hit a rocky out-crop and a Queensland Liberal Party State Council meeting has been called for tonight by Brough. They seem to have ‘overwhelming support’ except for the National Party letter writers.

    [Queensland Liberal president Mal Brough has called a state council meeting tonight amid fears coalition merger talks have broken down.

    Mr Brough this week reportedly sent a letter to the Queensland Nationals president Bruce McIver, demanding he be president of the merged party.

    The Nine Network last night said Mr Brough wrote in the letter that he wanted a response by midday yesterday but it was not forthcoming.

    Mr Brough last night issued an alert announcing he had called a meeting of the State Council – the Queensland Liberal Party’s governing body – for 6pm to discuss “outstanding issues surrounding the proposed merger”.

    He said he would “seek their advice on outstanding merger-related issues”.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-calls-urgent-merger-meeting/2008/07/09/1215282920562.html

  13. This by Peter Alford and Dennis Shanahan | July 10, 2008 in the OO –
    “Mr Rudd’s chief adviser on climate change, Ross Garnaut, last week cautioned Australia not to get too far ahead of the rest of the world in its response to global warming.
    The Garnaut report, which backed Mr Rudd’s plan to introduce a costly emissions trading scheme by 2010, warned that Australia could seriously harm its economy by acting alone.”
    I’ve watched Garnaut at the National Press Club at seen him interviewd elsewhere and I must say I didn’t get this impression. Did anyone else?

  14. No, Garnaut definitely never said that. In fact he repeatedly said that we were already way behind Europe, so acting now would not make us leaders, but in fact middle of the pack. Shanners lying yet again.

  17. There is one regular (Steve) who continues to provide blow by blow updates on the “Pineapple Party” (aka non-Labor in Queensland). Other than (maybe)some ‘feel good’ loathing of the other mob, what is the point and anyway who cares? Labor in Queensland are ascendant at the moment with non-Labor likely to remain in Opposition beyond the next election.

  18. 217 David there are also Federal issues tied up with this merger. The whole process has been approved by the conservative parties at a Federal level. An intention has been expressed to take the process to a National level if it is successful in Queensland.

    The new party would be a Division of the Liberal Party and affiliate of the National Party. This allows Queensland members of Federal Parliament to sit in on each others party room meetings as a right. It is important to follow what is happening with this organisational reshuffle as it has huge implications for the future either way.

  19. 214
    Anyone who thinks we might get caught leading the pack is an ostrich.
    You seriously couldn’t be in Europe for more than a few hours before you’d see the difference.
    We’ve got at least a decade of catch-up to do already, and that’s without the scientists and entrepreneurs who’ve been leaving our shores for greener pastures for that length of time.
    We’re becoming more and more insular like America every day when that sort of crap from sham-a-ham even sees the light of day. Hell, you don’t even have to go to Europe – there have been plenty of television programs on the subject in recent years.
    Bloody ostriches!

  20. onimod, I holidayed in Europe only a few months ago and you are dead right. It is embarassing the way we and the US are so far behind on this issue.

  21. Anybody who thinks we are in danger of ‘leading the pack’, only needs to check out the European vehicle emissions and fuel efficiency standards. They are way ahead of us, and have been for some time.

  22. One of the real benefits of the emerging technologies around energy is that they are site specific. Ie, jobs and infrastructure must be located in areas here. What is wrong with these people that they are against us having benefits around jobs and new infrastructure?

  23. I agree with others that Hollowmen wasn’t much chop. The plot was really predictable, and there was little character development. Like others, I will keep watching to see if it improves, as I do enjoy the backroom machinations of politics.

    Frontline was more cutting and funnier. You can only say “key stakeholders” so many times…

  26. @214 et al,

    Different places, different needs and different solutions.
    In respect to Australia’s needs and it’s capacity to address them, we are indeed decades behind ourselves.
    Research into renewable energy was well advanced in the 1980s, but funds were either suspended or reduced to levels that were risibly inadequate, precisely at the point in time where a momentum was gathering that would have put Australia in the van.
    It’s all a matter of popular and political will.
    The status quo is not, never has been and never will be a viable option.

  27. Has anyone seen the brilliant British series The Thick of It? It seems to me that that rather than Yes Minister is the model for The Hollowmen – bearing in mind that I forgot to watch it and don’t actually know what I’m talking about. Unfortunately, the stoopid ABC have never seen fit to show The Thick of It. Get it on DVD – it’s every bit as funny as Yes Minister, and immensely more biting and cynical.

  28. [bearing in mind that I forgot to watch it and don’t actually know what I’m talking about. ]

    William,

    You can watch last night’s episode on the Hollowmen website.

    Btw, good review you wrote on the reissue of the Dennis Wilson CD in Today’s West 🙂

  29. Oh dear – I was hoping that my association with that most disreputable publication might continue to pass unnoticed (just kidding Paul Armstrong, love your work really …).

  38. PS

    By complete coincidence, I just finished reading your post on that issue on your site, (which I only discovered recently, and am greatly appreciating your clear analyses and commentary).

    I agree, the move is on from the Turnbull camp, on top of everything else wrong with Nelson, the opportunity for Turnbull has crystallised over the climate change issue, and Nelson will not be leader for too much longer, certainly gone before Xmas.

  39. 236 TPS, I think there is just too much confusion from too many Shadow Ministers for anyone to follow it. It comes from having no clear policy, leaving individuals to make up their own policy as they are being interviewed. Nelson himself has had multiple positions on the subject since Friday.

  40. 236 The Piping Shrike- you just beat me to the punch. Why, in the middle of an article to do with Abbott and the Libs, would you put this?
    “As the rift between the shadow cabinet and Dr Nelson widened, the Rudd Government also came under fire today over the impact of an emissions trading scheme.
    The Australian Workers Union is also stepping up a campaign to offer free permits to trade-exposed, emissions-intensive industries including steel and aluminium, warning jobs could be lost offshore.”
    Then it goes on talking about Abbott and the Libs again.

  41. [How come the MSM (except The Australian it seems) are not picking this up?]

    They are enjoying their Rudd bashing crusades far too much to pick it up

  42. The Piping Shrike @ 236 – Abbott was asked if he accepted global warming was real in an ABC midday news interview. He dodged the question by saying, after a longish pause, that he thought reducing pollution was a good thing. Which sounded like a definite ‘No’ to me.

  43. 240
    because far too may journalists have given their phone numbers to conservative politicians and party heavyweights.
    You’ve got to have something in your pocket when they call:
    “…but I gave Kev a serve too…please…no…okay”

    It’s fine by me – every parent knows that once you’re kid has gone to ruin through a lack of principle and discipline there’s bugger all you can do to repair the damage. Boot camp might work, but better to start again.
    Johnny and co. left a petulant little brat behind who never learnt to read the fable of the boy who cried wolf.

  44. Are these Libs glass jawed or am I missing something. They run around the place slagging any one who doesn’t agree with them, calling people , the lunatic fringe, dangerous radical, fairies at the bottom of the garden etc, then people call them ‘deniers’ and they go off like hong kong sky rockets?

  45. Dario (241), I would say the MSM’s ignorance of this is the usual pro-Lib bias but it seems that The Australian is picking this up more than the Fairfax press.

    GB (240) there are ructions on the Labor side but the Lib one is more serious because they cannot afford to be on the wrong side of the climate change agenda for long but they have to distinguish themselves somehow.

    Also if Turnbull had gone along with the leadership’s line, like he did on petrol excise, he would have been finished politically. He has to make a stand now.

    Game on!

  46. As acting PM Julia should be getting out there and highlighting the gaping holes in the coalition on ETS. The MSM will report what a PM or Acting PM says.

  48. Why would Turnbull want the gig now. If Kevin Rudd has shown us anything its that people in public life need to take a Bex and lay down occasionally. This permanent election mode its just rubbish. The next election is nearly 2 and a half years away. Turnbull may well wait until after the next election. Huffing and pufing all over the place is just boring. If Rudd had settled down a fraction and looked at the term as a 6 piece play rather than running around like a headless chook he would have had a better 2nd act.
    Having said that, the ‘narrowing’ of recent had to happen , some of the numbers that he and the ALP were running were just unsustainable.

  49. BS (248) I don’t think that Turnbull necessarily wanted to make a pitch now but he was forced by Nelson’s back-tracking to do something. If he hadn’t he would have become a joke. He knows what happened to Costello.

    There comes a time when it is more damaging to go along than to make a stand. Nelson’s U-turn on climate change and the ETS has made that time now for Turnbull.

  50. very good, Piping Shrike.

    Really a conditional response(as an excuse) is out of date by up to a decade. There is no vision in the Libs otherwise they would be able to at least see up to November, and see that even in the short term their position is untenable. Minchim, Abbot, Robb -you cannot teach an old dog new tricks. This will only get worse for them unless Turnball gets the numbers to change it and throw out the fossilised old guard.

    Rupert has supposedly turned green. Should not this help the CC cause in Australia? Perhaps we may even see the third rate “journalism” of the MSM turn their guns on the Libs instead of Rudd for a while? Or am I only dreaming?

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