• Recent form suggests Roy Morgan has moved from weekly to fortnightly, and it seems the West Australian either didn’t conduct or didn’t publish its normal monthly Westpoll survey of state voting intention.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian wrote yesterday of “special analysis” of Newspoll showing that since the May budget the Prime Minister has suffered “double-digit falls in his popularity among higher-income earners, full-time workers and people aged 35-49”. We are also told the PM “didn’t do as badly among households with children – they trimmed his rating by 7.7 percentage points to 60.9 per cent, while those without children cut it by 10.7 points to 56.8 per cent”; and also that his approval rating among Coalition voters dropped from 40.9 per cent to 28.5 per cent.
• A survey conducted last month by Essential Research shows “93 per cent had either not heard of the emissions trading scheme, had heard about it but didn’t know what it was or knew just a little about it”. However, Chris Johnson of The West Australian reports that “once the concept was explained, respondents overwhelmingly thought it was a good idea. Seventy-two per cent strongly supported the introduction of an ETS and 78 per cent thought transport and petrol should be included.” I see the principals behind Essential Media (the company behind Essential Research) include Ben Oquist, former adviser to Bob Brown and one-time Greens Senate candidate.
• Labor continues to dither over whether to contest the Mayo by-election. No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.
• In the absence of Westpoll we will have to make do with more “unpublished Newspoll figures” provided by Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times, showing “41.9 per cent of 418 Liberals polled preferred Mr Carpenter as Premier, instead of their own man (33.5 per cent)”.
• Tasmanian Greens leader Peg Putt will resign from parliament and has handed the leadership baton to Franklin MP Nick McKim. A recount for Putt’s Denison seat will almost certainly deliver it to Cassy O’Connor, who once worked as an adviser to local federal Labor MP Duncan Kerr. This outcome was anticipated at the time of the March 2006 state election by Greg Barns.
• Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have been blogging prolifically of late. Do go and look.
• In the interests of promoting Aussie talent, the Poll Bludger presents a 1993 Rock Classic from the Cruel Sea.
Condolences to you and your family, Harry.
Follow the Preferences, was making a point on the previous thread that I couldn’t quite grasp, but I think I have it and it makes sense.
The whole trading scheme is a long term and difficult problem that needs to survive whatever government happens to have its bum on the seats. Therefore, the Ruddster goes to the LIBS and says, We need a bi-partisan approach. They are having trouble in finding their policy direction at the moment, They are therefore incapable of any definitive stance. The ALP do all the work, get the scheme to a point that its ready to go then put the political pressure on the LIBS.
The point about the Family First Senator is crucial, He will not support the tax on Fuel. Therefore they are not going to get it through the Senate. IE, look for a way to sheet home the blame on the Libs until after the next election. Reverse wedge the cons and everyont will blame the libs, whilst not suffering any economic pain.
The only worry is that the whole issue has to be sold as a ‘War’ footing issue.
When we get a media that isn’t beholden to the Liberal Party and special interests, things will improve in this country.
Brenda and the fibs are palying games with an ETS. Yes they support it – but Labor can’t be trusted to get it right.
Brenda has to muddy the waters a little to appeal to those who do not want an ETS. So he has the China and India get out of jail free card up his sleeve.
This is classic Rat Man politics – pretend to do something or to oppose something while doing the complete opposite (ie immigration).
If Brenda succeeds he may get to lose the next election – if he fails some other Fiberal will have that dubious honour.
Just visitied the Andrew Bolt Blog site. Was tempted to start chanelling dear old BOB again, however I doubt the collective intellect would have got it. OMG.
It all makes sense now, that is the policy machine of the Libs.
Which Bob, Bob? Your Bob or the Liberal Bob? I reckon your Bob ended up voting Liberal, while the Liberal Bob ended up voting DLP.
Chris,
Its a very good thought, maybe you could have a crack at Bob M. I remember watching Bob S on tele, he was like a darlek. Oh I can feel the calling.
“The leftist governments and their supporters in the socialist press are now in full control, until the stalinist in the Union movement are exposed by the right thinking christians, there will continue to be a further collapse in our society. The moral decaying brought on by the anti-capitalist running dogs with their eastern block financiers etc etc,
I’ll have a quick squiz on the net and see if there are any of Bobs pearls around.
Bob Santamaria @ #152:
Trench warfare again, Bob. Too bloody, too costly.
Rudd should rise above the fray and drop a few bombs on them from on high. The argey-bargey might be fun, but it’s fighting yesterday’s war today.
We need the terms of debate to be set up anew. New thinking, new hopes and horizons.
There is no reason whatsoever that Rudd Labor cannot grab this debate permanently by simply showing how the seeming disadvantage of Global Warming can be turned into a triumph for Australia… and carry the voting public, their kids and their grandkids, along with them.
That’s what the Mob are looking for: positive waves, not negativity and defensiveness. They don’t want a gouging shit-fight. They want something to look forward to.
The first person who provides optimism and new horizons out of Global Warming (or if not Global Warming, just cleaning up the bloody planet for its own sake) will be in power fo a decade, and rightly so.
Bushfire,
I would hope that your right, the fear is that the LIbs and the Media at the moment are so far removed from doing other than what is in their benefits that it may be sensible to keep options open. The debate is gaining clarity by the moment and in the future these people are going to look seriously silly, (Andrew Bolt).
However, the lesson that everyone has learn’t in the last decade is that opposition is an ugly experience. Those who are calling for Labor to lemming like run policy should be reminded that any party can only do what Mr and Mrs 51% allow.
The google search showed various others quoting Bob S, including a rather glowing speech by one Steven Fielding? The man the ALP gave preferences to in VIctoria.
Even from the (political) grave, Howard can still turn tricks.
Said he wouldn’t behave like Keating and would absent himself from the political discourse of the day.
Looks like another non-core to me.
Bryce
methinks the man of steal is positioning himself for a comeback-im sure hyacinth would love that 🙂
Bob S,
You must not forget that the real Bob S was anti-capitalist before he was anti-communist and returned to anti-capitalism in his later years when he established a friendship with Clyde Cameron. Bob M was never anti-capitalist, but he did despair of the party he created.
I think its funny that people who agreed with Keating say he was a visionary who was a head of the electorate, implying thats why he was disposed of.
“Ahead of the electorate” implies he was somewhere where the electorate wanted to go in the future. People got rid of Keating because they didn’t like his ideas, they didn’t like his personality, and they blamed him for the recession.
Fact is, he didn’t have the ability to bring the electorate with him. I suspect the primary reason for that was people didn’t really like him. Hard to get people to come with you on your journey if they don’t want to get in your car because they hate you.
We had the Hawke-Keating Govt. followed by the Howard-Costello Govt.
Now we have the Rudd Govt.
Hawke took the credit for his treasurers work, Howard pissed his treasurer to the wind.
Now, for better or worse, we have a PM who does not play the good news-bad news fall guy game. In my view refreshing. 🙂
Charles 107
“While the Rudd Government has stated its “ambition” is a trading scheme by 2010, the Coalition has argued that is unworkable and that 2012 should be the preferred starting date.”
FORMER Howard Government minister Tony Abbott will write a book about the future of conservative politics.
“I am looking forward to the opportunity to chronicle my position on the big issues,” the former federal health minister, said today.
“Mr Abbott has been one of the Liberal Party’s toughest advocates and readers can be sure that he will not shirk the big questions,” MUP chief executive Louise Adler said.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23994479-12377,00.html
Is this the Mad Monk’s pitch to be leader of the Fibs?
167
Sorry – accidently pressed “submit” button.
Extract from Samantha Maiden’s report in Australian (Charles’ link)
Even in this the reporter cannot get it right. Penny Wong used the word “ambition” and one other minister(cannot think of name) used another word similar in meaning in the context. But Kevin Rudd corrected it and said 2010 was definite. Surely the PM’s word takes precedence?
I just knew Minchim was behind Nelson’s change of heart. He seems to have a lot of say. Robb was also behind it.(Maiden’s story in Aust) Nelson is not his own man – he is a captive to the far Right.
.
Stephen Lloyd
My Mother in law voted against him because he kept his mouth open when he’d finished speaking… go figure!
Hawke lost ten seats in Victoria in 1990 I believe, how many will Rudd drop in NSW in 2009/2010?
One and pick up another three.
Sportingbet
Who Will Be NSW Premier on January 1 2009?
Nathan Rees 1.80
Morris Iemma 2.25
John Watkins 3.00
Any Other 7.00
Carmel Tebbutt 13.00
David Campbell 15.00
Frank Sartor 17.00
Verity Firth 26.00
Rees favourite? Wow that’s interesting…
Steve and Bushfire Bill
he link you need to understand Rudds strategy, and remember the finish line is the day we vote for his next term.
http://www.pitt.edu/~dash/type0275.html#aesop
169 Edward – keep dreaming Edward.
Jovial Monk
If the Liberals have any future it will not be found in the group that visit Bolts blog.
Keating did immense good for Aust because of his reforming of so many areas. He was a big picture man in an extravertive sense and hence everybody knew it. But he was not detail enough conscious and did not see the suffering of the everyday Aust. In addition he had a poor “bedside manner” and people did not think he was empathising with them. He used the vision thing to try to make people think that the suffering was all well worthwhile. He could be inspiring(Redfern speech) but he also alienated people and left the emotional condidion of the electorate in such a way that the opportunist Howard could capitalise on it. Keating could not take the electorate with him and duly lost the 1996 election. Howard “dined off” the benefits of the Keating era for 12 years and managed to discredit Keating’s economic credentials at the same time. Keating was a “big picture” man and did immense good for Australia but “led with his chin” and did not see some important strategic details eg he underestimated Howard and the electorate’s general view of him.
Rudd is also a “big picture” man but in an introvertive way. It is therefore not obvious to people as Keating’s was. But it is still there. Unlike Keating Rudd is seeing the important strategic details I am sure he is mindful of what happened to Keating’s reign. His victory over Howard last year shows the strategic nature of his mind. He was always a few steps ahead. Howard conversely was always formidable over a very short period, but had no strategic vision. He was always a short term opportunist.
Rudd is doing exactly what he said at the last election and is keeping his promises in a timely manner. He always said he would await the Garnaut report on CC before he would do anything about CC. And he is doing it right on cue. What more can we ask of him?
However I agree that there could be a lot more inspiration(like Obama) and something to actually MOVE people in their feelings. And I think that is what is missing. Rudd is capable of it as in the example of his apology to the Indigenous people earlier this year.
A couple of “big picture” speeches would be a start. Maybe he has them in mind. He has to replace the MSM’s base appeal to people’s feelings by appealing at a level higher than the small populist minds of the MSM can reach. And then he will cause the MSM and Opposition to be irrelevant in this matter and he will then defeat them.
charles 173
Exactly.
Doug 176
Well said.
GB,
Do you actually live in NSW?
NSW is heading for a Kirner style meltdown! Its that bad.
Hollowmen is on!
Perhaps this is essential viewing.
Kevin Rudd like all politicians talks and does nothing that is not aimed at the next election win. His problem is he has really misunderstood the electorate anger at John Howard. The anger was there about global warming and workchoices but they are mutually exclusive. He made the non-committal commitment on both of these issues but they are contradictory on hip pocket politics. He is now facing the contradiction in reality.
He actually never had policies on either of these areas now we will see how clever he really is.
ESJ,
Victorian budgets were in deficit. Unemployment was way up (as in the rest of the nation. Pyramid had collapsed. The State Bank was suffering and sold to the Commonwealth on the way to privatisation. Is NSW really that bad?
Edward
They should be ( and to fair on Kirner she was left holding the baby, Cain made the mess). But I actually think Labor will win the next election in NSW, the Liberal party is in the throws of self destruction. True the NSW branch is not leading the pack but it is coming a close third.
I really feel sorry for NSW, they have no Jeff;and that is what they need at the moment.
The anger was there about global warming and workchoices but they are mutually exclusive.
How?
Doug
And the thing to remember about Rudd is he has already seen a government fall because it didn’t take the electorate with him. He knows it is all for nothing if he doesn’t win the next election.
Chris C,
I would say NSW is suffering from the same disease but different effects are manifesting to VIC 92.
In Sydney today the headline was about the State Treasurer attacking the ALP Head Office. That is just such an extraordinary headline.
Really it is true the Libs could blow it but it is one of those situations where you just really have to do very little and watch the destruction.
Yeah, cos Howard had SOOOOO many policies when he gained government. Honestly, it amazes me how everyone carries on as though Rudd should have solved every problem already, as if there was a magic button or something that you get to push as soon as you get into the PM’s office. Some serious reality checks needed people.
From Wires
Glenn Milne releases home video
2AM, After Piss-up Friday at Brendon’s place
Charles
“I actually think Labor will win the next election in NSW”
If so it will be an indictment on the people of NSW.
How can a government just so corrupt be elected again?
This is not a call for a Liberal replacement it is a call to reclaim the power of the people.
The only way Labor could possibly win again is if there is a new clean leader and new candidates in over 60% of the electorates.
Or is it lets beat ourselves up?
ESJ,
I guess we will see. I hope you saw my US prediction on the US thread – the one you asked me to give several months ago.
The politics of climate change denial. Like it or not we are going to see more of this for the next two years.
http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/monckton%20schulte%20oreskes%207%200%20(2).pdf
To Just Me
Think about it!
colin
You have to have an alternative. My theory is it all goes back to the rum Rebellion. You still haven’t managed to clean up the elite.
Nah, Colin, I’m an idiot, I need it explained to me.
I did Chris, mmmm I’ll wait for the conventions but clearly BHO is in front.
Dario
Your allegiances are in the way of your comments or possibly thinking. There is no competition with Howard, he is in our history, we have a future that needs to be lead well. This is not a Labor/Coalition issue this is an issue beyond politics in the traditional sense. If we as electors dont recognise the truly important issues and force our politicians to do more than waffle our children will be living in a world incomprehensible to us.
Wake up there are no flowers to smell for Rudd, Wong et al. They need to be the best they can be and we need to expect them to be better again. Irrespective of their political allegiances.
Just Me
Read some recent headlines on petrol then think!
Charles
Satire can hide lots of truths
Oh dear, the fit is hitting the shan for the Libs on ETS. Turnbull is being grilled by Leigh Sales on “Lateline”. Clearly Brendan has stuffed up.
It seems to me that much of the discussion about the relative merits of Messrs Rudd and Keating in earlier posts turns on one basic difference between the two: Mr Rudd does not seem to go out of his way to create new enemies. In fact, I can’t think of a single occasion when he has gratuitously sought to offend someone, or to rub someone’s nose in it.
Mr Keating, famously, took the opposite approach. Some posters here clearly used to find that exhilarating, and miss it. My personal view is that Mr Keating’s behaviour was self-indulgence of the first order, and that he, more than anyone else, tilled the soil for Hansonism and Howardism. Those of you who yearn for the good old days of Mr Keating ought to spare a thought for the less well off people whose interests he was supposed to be representing, who copped it in the neck under the regime which followed.
There’s more to political leadership than just being noisy and exuberant – breaking the mold of polarised politics is not a bad way to start.
Oh by the way for those of you in NSW dont forget you do not have freedom of speech during WYD that appears to actually be a week. Good luck all!
194 colin, I don’t think it has anything to do with allegiences. Why is there a constant humming about ‘no substance’ with a government that has only been in power for 7 months? I drew comparisons back to Howard to illustrate that governments don’t suddenly jump into office and change everything in 5 minutes flat. It just doesn’t work that way. I would love to see a list of the previous 3 or 4 governments ‘achievements’ in their first half-year in office. It wouldn’t be a very long list.