Where have all the pollsters gone?

• Recent form suggests Roy Morgan has moved from weekly to fortnightly, and it seems the West Australian either didn’t conduct or didn’t publish its normal monthly Westpoll survey of state voting intention.

George Megalogenis of The Australian wrote yesterday of “special analysis” of Newspoll showing that since the May budget the Prime Minister has suffered “double-digit falls in his popularity among higher-income earners, full-time workers and people aged 35-49”. We are also told the PM “didn’t do as badly among households with children – they trimmed his rating by 7.7 percentage points to 60.9 per cent, while those without children cut it by 10.7 points to 56.8 per cent”; and also that his approval rating among Coalition voters dropped from 40.9 per cent to 28.5 per cent.

• A survey conducted last month by Essential Research shows “93 per cent had either not heard of the emissions trading scheme, had heard about it but didn’t know what it was or knew just a little about it”. However, Chris Johnson of The West Australian reports that “once the concept was explained, respondents overwhelmingly thought it was a good idea. Seventy-two per cent strongly supported the introduction of an ETS and 78 per cent thought transport and petrol should be included.” I see the principals behind Essential Media (the company behind Essential Research) include Ben Oquist, former adviser to Bob Brown and one-time Greens Senate candidate.

• Labor continues to dither over whether to contest the Mayo by-election. No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.

• In the absence of Westpoll we will have to make do with more “unpublished Newspoll figures” provided by Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times, showing “41.9 per cent of 418 Liberals polled preferred Mr Carpenter as Premier, instead of their own man (33.5 per cent)”.

• Tasmanian Greens leader Peg Putt will resign from parliament and has handed the leadership baton to Franklin MP Nick McKim. A recount for Putt’s Denison seat will almost certainly deliver it to Cassy O’Connor, who once worked as an adviser to local federal Labor MP Duncan Kerr. This outcome was anticipated at the time of the March 2006 state election by Greg Barns.

Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have been blogging prolifically of late. Do go and look.

• In the interests of promoting Aussie talent, the Poll Bludger presents a 1993 Rock Classic from the Cruel Sea.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

344 comments on “Where have all the pollsters gone?”

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  1. I guess he had to try to say something negative (if silly) to “counter” the fact that Labor is the party of record low unemployment – through the decades.

  2. Yes if you believe in the Non Accelerating Inflation Rate level of unemployment – record low unemployment by definition is bad news.

  3. Bad news for who Eddie? Ever been out of work? Did it feel good that you were making a contribution to the national economy?

  4. There is a level at which low levels of unemployment heats up the economy causing inflation. Presumably the Reserve Bank believes this is the case otherwise it wouldnt have raised rates so much.

    Unemployment for anybody is a waste and a tragedy, unfortunately its also a fact of life in a capitalist economy which the state through social security tries to ameliorate.

  5. [There is a level at which low levels of unemployment heats up the economy causing inflation. ]

    In a pre-enterprise bargaining world when wage increases spread through the economy like a virus this was true. But it no longer is.

    [Unemployment for anybody is a waste and a tragedy, unfortunately its also a fact of life in a capitalist economy which the state through social security tries to ameliorate.]

    Which makes one one wonder why Howard turned the social security system into a vote buying machine based around middle class welfare.

  6. And yet the Menzies era – hailed by conservatives as Australia’s Golden Age – saw not only virtually nil unemployment (hence the big immigration programs) but Australians enjoying the highest standard of living in the world and low inflation.

  7. I can’t see this employment rate good news lasting too much longer. It is interesting that Former Fed member Dick Poole coming out and saying that both Freddie Mack and Fannie May, the largest mortgage providers in the US are insolvent. The washup will be that in the end the only way for Australian Banks will be able to fund mortgages will be via local savings. Considering we are poor savers and that over 50% of aussie mortagages are originated from overseas borrowers, trying to get a home loan soon will be a nightmare. The US is doing a great job of dragging the rest of the world down the plug hole. And I haven’t even mentioned the UK, which is in an even worst situation!

  8. [And yet the Menzies era – hailed by conservatives as Australia’s Golden Age – saw not only virtually nil unemployment (hence the big immigration programs) but Australians enjoying the highest standard of living in the world and low inflation.]

    The only reason unemployment was so low then was because generally women didn’t work. Also the living standards were artificially high because industry protection effectively subsidised unsustainable wage levels, which just ended up producing inefficient low profit industries.

    I prefer how our economy is now where women are free to work if they want, and don’t have to fit into arbitrary social roles.

    And of course, hour GDP per capita is now 3 times what it was back then.

  9. Considering we are poor savers

    Here is a rather sobering graph which shows how poor …

    Household Savings Ratio (% of net household disposable income)

    Thank God for Labor’s compulsory super or we’d have nothing saved!

  10. Average Joe,
    I have no particular insight on the timing of the WA election, but the football finals won’t matter in WA this year. The date that will matter for the WA clubs and their supporters is AFL draft week-end.

  11. [Average Joe,
    I have no particular insight on the timing of the WA election, but the football finals won’t matter in WA this year. The date that will matter for the WA clubs and their supporters is AFL draft week-end.]

    Also, Grand Final week co-incides with the School Holidays, Queens Birthday Long Weekend and the Royal Show, plus add the Olympic Games and any post Welcome Home Parade/Celebrations, plus the CH 7 Telethon Weekend during the first weekend in October along with the WAFL Grand Final.

  12. (297) I don’t know about business’s relations with this government, I think it will be strange. With Hawke it was a straight out love-in because he delivered them the unions. Rudd can’t do that, so I think his relationship will be more fraught. His government will be somewhat detached from business is my guess. It is the state that he will openly represent.

  13. Rolly #313, alas no, no graph off hand.

    I do however have the following article which indicates that household and business debt was at record levels, described by experts as “alarming” and “out of control”.

    Note the date:

    The Age, 24 February 2007

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/household-debt-scale-alarms-expert/2007/02/23/1171734021898.html

    Pretty chilling stuff. I guess when/if we join the world in a recession we will quickly learn how strong the Coalition’s economy proved to be … For all their bragging, low savings + high interest rates + high inflation + huge debt cannot be healthy.

  14. Just watching Q&A now… my god I can’t believe Emerson didn’t punch Bolt’s lights out. He just wouldn’t shut up!

  15. ShowsOn @ 309 –

    I prefer how our economy is now where women are free to work if they want, and don’t have to fit into arbitrary social roles.

    Are most women really working (outside the home) because they want to, or because they have to?

    Most of the ones I meet don’t.

  16. On the WA election, mid October at the earliest. The Parliament is having a special regional sitting in Bunbury on 9 and 10 September. Bunbury is a key marginal seat and the session has been in the planning since November last year. Any new parliament can’t have its first sitting until after 1 September without cutting a year of the government’s term. So it would be very difficult to have an election and have a first sitting before going down to Bunbury for the planned session.
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/home/nextelections.htm#wa

  17. Two Indian public servants have been arrested as part of an investigation into the corruption of Australia’s $300 million wheat trade with India.

    …According to News Ltd, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation wanted to pursue the scandal in 2001, 2004 and 2006, but each time was thwarted by the Howard Government’s lack of assistance.

    Tuesday’s arrests were due to new Rudd Government’s support for the investigation, it said.

    …In 1998 AWB was still a government body, with the wheat board privatisation coming the following year.
    (My emphasis)
    http://news.smh.com.au/national/awb-caught-in-indian-wheat-scandal-20080711-3dc2.html

    I think it’s time the whole smelly AWB saga, and the former government’s role in it, was revisited in a proper independent inquiry.

  18. (308) So zedder your following the hurd into the bear market. It’s actually very interesting times. Interesting times translates into economic activity.

    Like it not not climate change mitigation is going to happen (lost cause or not), for conservatives that can only see jobs in coal mines, this is a disaster, if you have imagination all they can see is the new stuff that has to be built. Carbon miles are going to matter ( rubs hands together with glee).

    China’s standard of living is increasing, with new labor laws coming in January 2008, (40 hour week, 1.5 for overtime, double time for weekends, sounds like Australia doesn’t it) won’t help Australia manufacturing, our exchange rate is too high, but the flow of manufacturing activity to china is going to slow and china is going to become a consumer of it’s own product as well as imports (big changes in china).

    At the moment Indonesia is the low cost produced (curruption still a bit of a problem), right next door, carbon miles matter.

    Americas messy little war, that is costing them a fortune is going to end, the USA managed to run a surplus in the 90’s, the Republicans turned them into a basket case, “praise the lord”, they are going to get the boot.

    As for Australia, too many mines are being built ( funded by the debt people complain about). “The Australian” can bitch and moan and wish for the mess that was the Howard years ( or the war on terror if you like) as much as they want, but the world isn’t going back there.

    That’s the funniest thing abut Nelson conversion to climate denial. By November the USA will be a different place,they will have signed onto Europe’s agenda, (Europeans have been making money from climate change for a decade); and poor old Nelson will be out there hanging in the breeze, all be himself, on the wrong side of the international agenda.

  19. Steve (317) Thanks, once again, for the update on non-Labor in the great state of Queensland. I doubt linking that story will ‘ruffle’ anyone’s ‘feathers’, including any barristers who visit this site.

  20. David, Brough and Stockdale are meeting with McIvor at the moment, so I’m sure they will come up with something important to put to the Liberal Council meeting tonight.

    Meanwhile Dolly Downer has come up with some amazing stuff too. It depends on how much faith one has in the way the Cole Inquiry was set up.

    [We were all appalled by the Volcker report’s findings for the United Nations about AWB. That’s why we set up a full, transparent inquiry. The Cole commission unravelled the web of deceit by AWB. And it vindicated government officials and the relevant ministers.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/bias-ignores-hard-work-on-foreign-policy/2008/07/10/1215658033662.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  21. “One of the saddest things about modern Australia is we still have commentators such as Hartcher who don’t care about any of these issues. They just want to make puerile anti-conservative party political points built on a foundation of trivia.”

    The words of Alexander Downer in 324 above. I suppose he has the same thoughts on the anti labor ramblings of Milne, Shanahan, Bolt, et al. LOL.

  22. What is Nelson up to, changing substantially on the ETS yet again?

    Obviously the Opposition can not be so incompetent with shadow ministers like Turnbull, Hunt and Coonan denying any change right up to a few hours ago.
    So Nelson must be deliberately heading off on his own zig zag path.

    The party meeting at the end of the month seems relevant so this behaviour must be aimed at putting Turnbull on the back foot or on getting Nelson’s name in the media.

    Is it really the case that any publicity is good publicity?

  23. 326
    Dr Good Says:
    July 11th, 2008 at 11:16 am
    What is Nelson up to, changing substantially on the ETS yet again?

    It must be to do with the theory that it’s harder to hit a moving target. Nelson is all over the ring and whenever Labor land a punch he disappears in a puff of smoke and reappears elsewhere hoping to whack Rudd in the back of the head or below the belt – anywhere he can land a blow.

    Nelson’s problem is that he’s only in the first minute of a 15 round bout and he’s already bleeding profusely from cuts to his face. I reckon his handlers will throw in the towel before the end of the second round. Then we’ll see Big Bad Malcolm Allbull enter the ring with his shorts pulled up to his neck line to minimise the target area. That won’t help him win but it will see him through to an election loss.

  24. Oh! Dear!
    The Libbles spearing themselves in the foot again (they haven’t caught up with the concept of firearms yet) and so close to the face too (vis. foot-in-mouth).
    They could poke an eye out.
    Tut! Tut!

  25. 329 It’s all pretty brainless stuff when you consider only one part of the equation.
    So while all the public wards are overflowing the private hospitals will go broke because no one is there. Presumably the doctors and nurses employed there will be looking for work too.
    Tick
    Tick
    Tick
    Big picture anyone?

    The complaints that users might pay the actual cost in a user pays system are just too funny. It couldn’t possibly suggest that purely capitalist health care system might have some structural problems?
    Duh!

  26. It looks like it is an open warfare now between the Nowhere Man and the Everywhere Man over the ETS model and the start date.

    If the Libs become obstructive over the Government’s CC plan in the Senate, Rudd should do a DD over this. It is too important to diddle and doddle over this and it will also define the Rudd Government.

  27. I wonder if Downer has read the papers in the last 6 months. This comment by him is just so ridiculous.

    Downer’s lack of critical self-awareness and sneering hypocrisy is truly breathtaking.

  28. 336 Just Me
    Mate don’t hold back – this is ozblogistan.
    The man is an outright idiot, and has for the last decade, been a bloody dangerous one.
    If he wants personal abuse, I’d be prepared to give it to him, but I’ve got a little paradox for you – you can’t prove to an idiot that they are in fact an idiot. (In some ways it defines the term)

  29. onimod @ 337

    “you can’t prove to an idiot that they are in fact an idiot”

    lol.

    But you can put them in jail for complicity in 300 million dollars’ worth of corrupt circumvention of UN sanctions – “alleged complicity”, sorry.

  30. Blimey if I was a numbers cruncher in the ALP I’d be running around in circles screaming “We’re doomed, doomed I tell you!”.

    That Morgan result is ONLY a 6%+ swing since the election and would ONLY give the ALP and EXTRA 20 odd seats if an election was based on this poll.

    “Doomed!”

  31. …you can’t prove to an idiot that they are in fact an idiot. (In some ways it defines the term)

    He he.

    How true.

    It’s similar to the problem of how do you have a rational argument with somebody who is irrational, or an honest debate with somebody who is dishonest?

    But you can put them in jail for [alleged, alleged] complicity in 300 million dollars’ worth of corrupt circumvention of UN sanctions…

    And India just might provide such an opportunity. (See # 321.) If I was Downer, I would be checking out the real estate in Argentina, seeing if there was a bit of land available next to the Bushes’ escape hole.

  32. “In early July, ALP support is 48.5% (down 3.5%), L-NP support 35% (up 1%), support for the Greens 8% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 1%) and Independent/Others 6% (up 1%). ”

    Err Roy these numbers don’t add up – but don’t worry you have ind/others up 1.5% in the primary table. 🙂

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