Presidential election minus 19 weeks

Introducing another round of comments action in the endless US presidential election campaign. Participants are encouraged to try their luck in the IRC room:

The Poll Bludger’s irc gateway, using the PJirc applet.

Type the Room Name

Type your Nick
Type your Server URL

Most of you will just need to enter your preferred nickname under “Type your Nick” and hit:

Or, if you know how to use an irc client, just connect to server, #pollbludger.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,113 comments on “Presidential election minus 19 weeks”

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  1. It isn’t on topic exactly, but a damned sobering read that we should all be acquainted with:

    … about some of the larger geopolitical issues.

    Of course this election is really under the shadow of Gore (the Nobel), and Democrats will be paying lipservice in various degrees, but the cold (hot?) realities will be haunting us for many many decades to come.

  2. ESJ

    I think you could argue that Karl Rove came close. To get the Imbecile over the line TWICE, frankly I am in awe of him. You might be able to correct me but I read Paul Krugman claimed that Bush is the only leader in history to lower taxes while he was at war. And he got away with it, for quite a while anyway.

  3. 2053

    And look where it’s gotten them! LOL

    Idiocy has a finite lifespan Dio, even in politics.

  4. Another flip flop from Obama. This time is on later term abortion. His racing to the right is truly amazing. It’s so blatantly and breathtakingly cynical, it has many gasping for air. So who and what is Obama now? Does he stand for anything anymore? It is almost like a snake with new skin, one pre primary and one post primary.

    [You’d expect McCain to take those positions. He has, after all, promised to nominate justices like Roberts, Alito, Scalia, Thomas. But on two of the biggest social controversies to reach the Court this year, Obama, too, sided with conservatives — rejecting opinions by the liberal justices who, presumably, are of the kind he would appoint if elected President.

    But that’s nothing compared to Obama’s most recent comments about the most controversial social issue of them all: abortion.

    In a recent interview, Obama appears to back away from his long-stated positions on abortion (and a proposed federal abortion rights law he had co-sponsored), repudiate 35 years of accepted Supreme Court rulings on the issue and embrace a view on abortion restrictions that has been expressed on the Court only by Justices Thomas and Scalia……….

    The Freedom of Choice Act specifically allows abortions after viability where necessary to protect a woman’s health, and the legislation refers repeatedly to the guarantees of Roe and Doe, which protect the right to an abortion where necessary for a woman’s physical and mental health.

    One of its co-sponsors? Barack Obama.

    So here are some questions for the Obama campaign: Does Obama still support the Freedom of Choice Act? Would he appoint justices like Ginsburg — or like Thomas, Scalia, etc.? Would he direct his Solicitor General to file a brief supporting state abortion bans that did not include a mental health exception?]

  5. Just as a recommendation from a lurker who only checks this thread rarely at the moment… if you can’t understand what Ron is saying, no one is forcing you to read his posts. However, trying to attack him and belittle his grammar and spelling is very disrespectful. I’ll admit that I don’t always read Ron’s posts (particularly his longer ones), as it does take some effort… but if you can take the effort, I suggest you do so. If you can’t be bothered, or don’t want to read them, don’t take that out on him.

    Chris, as a suggestion… if you are thinking of posting something, let it sit there for 5 minutes before you click Submit. The little follow up comments such as those at 1934, 1935 and 1936 don’t add anything to the conversation and you could have just folded them all back into the original post. My guess is that apart from the copy and pasted articles which make your posts seem a lot like an RSS feed at times, you’d probably find that people with differing views may treat you with more respect.

  6. Krugman on Bush:

    And what does Mr. Bush have to say about this dismal record? “I think when people take a look back at this moment in our economic history, they’ll recognize tax cuts work.” Clueless to the end.


  7. Chris B,

    Partial-birth/late term abortion is exactly the sort of issue the can swing an election.

    After all, Dukakis’ consistent opposition to the death penalty was a key driver in him losing in a landslide to Bush I in 1988…

  8. A bit Letterman, but here goes:

    The top 10 answers people volunteered when asked to describe presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Monday. Included is the percentage of people who gave each answer. More than one response was allowed.

    John McCain:

    1. Old, 19 percent

    2. Military service, 9 percent

    3. Record, qualifications, 8 percent

    4. Bush, 7 percent

    5. Strength, 7 percent

    6. Insider, politician, 7 percent

    7. Iraq, terrorism, 6 percent

    8. Honest, 5 percent

    9. Republican, 5 percent

    10. (tie) Moral/good and dishonest, 4 percent

    Barack Obama:

    1. Outsider, change, 20 percent

    2. Lack of experience, 13 percent

    3. Dishonest, 9 percent

    4. Inspiring, 8 percent

    5. Liberal, 6 percent

    6, 7 (tie). Obama’s race, young, 6 percent

    8. Not likable, 5 percent

    9. Intelligent, 4 percent

    10. Muslim, 3 percent

    The AP-Yahoo News poll of 1,759 adults was conducted from June 13-23 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews.

  9. Chris B,

    Abortion is always a big issue in elections in the US – after all, in 2004, what hurt Kerry (a Catholic) amongst Catholics was that some bishops criticised him for his view on abortion.

    Also worth noting is that what may seem to be major issues to us foreign observers (eg, Iraq and the economy) often don’t end up being the definitive issues in the actual election.

    Once again, going back to 1988, in the year, the Republicans were hurting from the Iran-Contra scandal (which had cost them the Senate in 1986) and the repercussions from Black Tuesday in October 1987. However, Bush I was able to make Dukakis’ liberalness the key issue of the election and he did this by pinning him on his record as Governor of Massachusetts. The real cut-through issue ended up being not Iran-Contra or Black Tuesday, but instead Dukakis’ view on the death penalty (and the awful photo of him riding around in a tank…)

  10. Nup Diogenes,

    They all learned at the feet of the master. Recommend Riston’s book on Nixon/Frost should be a snap for u – 190 pages in 12 point font I think with 1.5 spacing.

  11. Optimist @ 2035 if you go wayaway…baaack you’ll find that ron/Ron ‘factory’ was spotted earlierRon so to speak…by guess who? & the poor bugger me ‘authorisation’ is simply just that; it’s not the annoying jingoistic etc that is the problem but the underlying dark drumbeat that periodically & consistently pokes through in a dwalfy kinda sorta way…& that’s fair game imho…

    EC, re 20 or 144, who’s the better pseph or ECONOMIST?

  12. Jen,
    as it seems that our dear moderator William is not going to respond to my post at #2035, could you fill me in on the whole r/Ron thing you mentioned earlier?

  13. Swing Lowe

    Of course the bishops didn’t make the same comments about Republicans who were pro-choice, like Arnie, Rudy, Tom Ridge, George Pataki etc. I will leave y’all to make any inferences about hypocrisy etc.

  14. Swing Lowe #2066,
    let’s not forget Willie Horton.
    The campaign involving Horton being orchestrated by none other than Fox News president Roger Ailes and Karl Rove’s mentor, Lee Atwatwater (Atwater is the correct spelling, but I’m amused by my own accidental typo, so i left it as is.)

  15. William,
    I’m sorry to go on about it, but I need closure – should i ask Diogenes where he gets the idea that Ron is dysgraphic?
    in #1967, William links to a post of yours that states that Ron is dyslexic – where did you get that idea? Did Ron tell you that, or is it something you concluded yourself?

  16. Denton is rerunning his interview with Helen Thomas on ABC right now – well worth a look for those who haven’t seen it.

  17. Well I’ll raise your Horton with Ricky Ray Rector who was famously fried by old slick willy himself. Rector famously left some of his final meal for later….

  18. #2061 jen Says: [Finns- WTF is the First XI thingy? Can’t sleep until you tell me] – hate to see you staying up till 4am doing another one woman yapping show.

    It was just more fun, challenging and edgy when it was the 3Amigos Vs (Pancho, ferny, dyno, kirri, jen, asanque, jaundiced view, Robert Bollard, codger, Enemy Combatant, Diogenes, TurningWorm] – you can do the batting order and select the 12th man.

  19. Optomist

    Not offended by anything you hav ever said I’ve been told that description as an insult lots in past so as my lingo is not perfect and I do not & did not really care what I’m called that descripton whatever can do for all i care Now previously simply had a companion asistant available at anytimes next to me at the computr in my irregular bus , able to edit para s, stops blah blah , was real quick keen on presentation person but now ‘unavailable’ So yu were smart did had two rons & that would horrify yous , but now one & uncensored Always have had in my bus ‘s executive assistants optimist , and that’s there job , but not the ideas stuff , but not a Karl Rove type like he actually thought for George Bush on politcs & bush did not do any thinking So lingos never stop anyone really & also an that’s why I try to ignoir Catrina , didn’t intend you got iinto blew with William re me because I will argue with you anyway And thinking of my friend Catrina very precise and would have as an exec assistant , but FINNS seems to have all the gals here So how about you look at a real issue & read my off cuffs theorys in #1991 , aybe not well presented but I’m saying Mr Obam was right in Jan and Feb Then at that time in history the republicans reelly had a massive political problem al to themselves over illegal wiretaps by a Republican admin , a republican only admin , but Mr O shifted silly against principals & against smart politcs , the pelosii Dems brigade changed the man to their ‘old politc style’ Now Ommy & the Pelosis Dems set ar actually sharing & have becom part owners of Bush’s and Telcos ilegal wiretaps corruption of the constitution , civil rights etc Crazy that Mr O and Dems did so against principals and against clever politcs and foolishly voluntarily did so , instead of leaving the Republican political & principals problem as a Republican only problem

  20. Ok -I’m, going to stick my neck out now. If I get banned for being abusive or discriminatory – so be it.

    many years ao i had a relationship with a man who had severe dyslexia. He went on to become highly qualified in his field.
    The one feature of our written communication however was it’s brevity , given how difficult it ws for him to use writing rather than other forms of communication.
    Therefore i find it somewhat odd taht the person who claims the most difficulty with the writter word (and don’t I sympathise as a crap typist) is the one with the longest posts.
    so, shoot me down
    or .be objective…

  21. Sheeez Finns-
    I’ve really tried to be nice . Sometimes.
    I even took up underwater aquabatics and equestrian sports for you and GG, but, *sigh*, nothing will please you.
    So, off with me head.
    (can I have one in Lime Green to match my complexion?)

  22. Well, I wonder if I’ll need any protective gear, jen. I’m not worried by the quality of the bowling. I spose the old underarm delivery is a possibility, but not one of them can get on a decent line. The main trouble is the umpire. I’m sure he’s biased in favour of the amigos. You never know what mischief he will let them get away with.

  23. Re 2086 see 2069 QED.

    Hey KR give us a spray sunshine…Finns & jen are about to s&m…do we need facemasks now?

  24. WTF codger???
    I am NOT doing s&m with Finns.
    (and no – I’m blonder, Finnigans).

    Codger- r u coming to election party???

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