Presidential election minus 21 weeks

Duke it out here. Those participating in the US election threads are advised that they do so at their own risk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,623 comments on “Presidential election minus 21 weeks”

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  1. From the previous thread.
    2129 Possum Comitatus I understand what you are saying and agree with it. But with the tidal wave coming he doesn’t need to have someone like that, and from the indications I am getting he could get away without Hillary’s support either.

  4. Hey All

    I’ve noticed in a couple of places there have been references to Obama receiving a ‘post nomination bump’ in recent pollls putting him ahead nationally.

    Can anyone explain to me a) if this is a legitimate phrase – i.e. that its not similar to the ‘circuit breaker’ concept from the 07 Australian election and b) why it occurs?

    Cheers

  5. Yohoho

    The bounce comes from the polls previously being polluted by a three horse race, now crystalising out in a proper two horse race.

    If you go back to polls when Huckabee and Romney were still around, the same thing was happening on the Republican side as well.

  6. Poss 2105 from prev thread

    Interesting points.

    The thing is there is no “perfect” pick, but it all gets down to who Obama thinks will help best with the balance of getting elected, and then helping him govern.

    In the few polls since HRC’s concession, Obama seems to have shored up the elderly white woman vote. They are natural Democrats. Do you consolidate this by selecting Sebelius or risk it by picking Webb?

    Webb would be fantastic for going after white appalachian men but these are usually reliable Republican.

    It is a game of pros and cons. Sebellius and Webb both have advantages, listed in many places. I would suggest Sebelius has a few fewer disadvantages.

    I think they have fairly equal pluses in helping Barry’s election.

    But Sibelius helps him much more in Governing. It is often said Webb’s personality is perfectly suited to be a Senator and perfectly unsuited to being a VP.

    We will see.

  7. G’day Bludgers,

    Not so smart Bomb-Bomb is hamstrung between two demographics he desperately needs in order to be a running child’s chance in a napalm storm of surviving this campaign of fear and loathing; educated women AND fundies.

    “Party Chairman Howard Dean has said the party will highlight a perception that McCain has “old-fashioned views.” According to Dean, in DNC focus groups, women in the most conservative group were “shocked that [McCain] believed health insurance shouldn’t cover birth-control pills and they were shocked about his belief in abstinence-only education.”

    They key target here is the women who are showing weaker Democratic leanings this year. Party operatives believe that, once they learn that McCain said “Roe v. Wade was not only a bad decision but a flawed decision,” these women will abandon any thought of supporting him.”

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/06112008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/zapping_mac_114971.htm

    (Thanks for the newly disclaimed thread, BillBo)

  12. One would have expected a boost for the Obama campaign following his clinching of the nomination. However, there are some cautionary signs in the latest polls for the Obamatics. Personally, would not be giving too much credit to any polls until after the conventions. However, will conceed that, as always, any trends will be give us all plenty of talking points.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/06/11/wsjnbc_poll_obama_holds_six_point_lead.html

  13. Looks like a smaller meeting type is now the Obama option.

    “Obama had planned to campaign Wednesday in Iowa, but flooding there prevented him. His campaign hastily arranged the Chicago event to avoid a day with no public events during a week in which he is criticizing McCain on several economic issues.

    Barely two dozen people attended the event, in which Obama talked with three struggling borrowers and a consumer advocate at a small table. The setting was in keeping with his recent emphasis on small, low-key events that contrast sharply with the huge rallies for which is known.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080611/ap_on_el_pr/obama_lending

  14. FINNS & GG

    A perspectives to my posts on the Iraq vote, the role of the UN in the corrupted pre invasion Intell & Obama’s “Senate” position was not addressed. Beforehand , the backsdrop is we now know from the Dems Congress controlled Phase (ii) Intell Report that 000’s pages analysis from the CIA , NSA & other US security Agencys suppliedto then Senators was not their assessments at all , & instead the Intell data had been corrupted by Bush/Cheney administration The scale is unprecedented in a democracy .However back in 2002 these 000,’s of pages of Intell & visuals plus classified briefings were supplied as if it was independent Intell to US Senators & it overwhelmingly made an invasion case on National Security grounds. The country assessed being Iraq had previously without provaction invaded Kuwait , had used chemical weapons on its own people Iraq and where in October 2002 UN Inspectors were actualluy in Iraq looking for biological & chemical weapons

    The Bush/Cheney corrupted Intell fed into a post 9/11 US siege psche , it fed into the misuse of the respected but conned Colin Powell as the frontman , it fed into Iraq’s previous invasion of Kuwait , it fed into Iraq’s slaughter of its Kurds in the north & its Shia in the South , it fed into the UN Inspectors then being in Iraq actually looking for WMD’s & being obstructedand , it fed into the Senates constitutional role to receive genuine CIA , NSA & other Intell unfalsified. The Dems Senators looked at all of this , made a value judgement & 28 Dems voted yes the invasion case was made, John Edwards thought so. So did Hillary , and so do I having read a lot of data. Now in 2005 , when it became clearer the Intell was a fraud , both Edwards & Hillary publicly recanted their decision & expressed contrition , stances the MSN deliberately thereafter ignored , & worse falsely perpetuated the myth they still supported the invasion criteria & had shoen no regret The corrupt power of the MSN

    Now to the UN inspector’s unwitting role in the Bush/cheney Intell falsification Bix the chief UN-MOVIC weapons inspector & Mohamed El Baradei, the IAEA chief inspector for atomic weapons , specifically had cited to the UN in 2002 Reports Iraqi failures to eliminate prohibited chemical and biological arms programs & adamanant the possible existence of chemical and biological arms were a present possible danger Ironically but cruciallys it was Bix & Mohamed El Baradei comments & Reports that unwittingly allowed Bush/Cheney to be able to falsify US intell Reports with some credibility of Iraq’s WMD danger to con the Senators This was then magnified by the Intell being presented to the Senators as the CIA/.NSA ‘s assessments when instead it was actually Bush/Cheney’s

    Its no point people saying oh but the ALP opposed the invasion. The ALP , like the UN Council , never had access to the persuasive 000’s of corrupted & classified Intell & briefings the Senators received on which they made their decision This was simply a case of the ALP either through suspicion of the US , factionism or ignorance (of the Intell as it didn’t have that Intell) being proved right with hindsight , over those who had all the 000’s of Intell I mean no one has ever suggested that Sadamm given his use of gas on his own people , his slaughter of the Kurds & Shia’s & his Kuwait invasion would not have wanted WMD’s nor wanted to use them After all that’s why the UN imspectors were in Iraq

    The first casuality of war is the truth. Bush/Cheney have unfairly succeeded in dirtying 28 Dems Senators including John Edwards, Kerry & Hillary The MSN “truth” have perpetuated this “truth” & for some their minds are now made up depite the Phase (ii) Intell Report starting to demolish the massive detailed but grossly corrupted Intell supplied to the 28 Dems Senators

    An aside , Obama was not then in the Senate. However in October 2002 when he made his ‘Iraq” speech , he had decided to run for the US Senate for 2004 & at that time he appointed David Axelrod as a strategist & announced his candiditure 2 months later.As a new candidate what else was Obama to say & further he had none of the 000’s of false intell info anyway. Suggest instead consider Obama’s 2004 comments , where he did not repeat his 2002 anti invasion comments at all but instead told the Chicago Tribune he “did not know” how he would have voted on the war resolution had he been a Senator at the time. That is NOT his distancing from the Kerry , Hillary & Edward’s vote at all , not at all , otherwise he woud have repeated his 2002 comments Obama’s change simply was he had by then become aware of the 2002 Intell the Senators had received As an aside Obama also says in 2004 , quote “there’s not much of a difference between my position and George Bush’s position at this stage of the Iraq War” Everyone including Obama was reading or hearing of grosly corrupted Intell Now by 2005 when Edwards & Hillary admitted their mistake vote & their contrition , the Intell authenticity have become suspicious for all Dems

    Given Obama’s 2004 comments , his 2008 comments retrospectively quoting his 2002 remarks when a Senate ‘candidate’ is simply clever politics & good on him , but cann’t be seriously used against the 28 Dems vote , given his 2004 comments & that he had in 2002 none of the falsified corrupted Intell the Dems Senators had The Iraq vote instead should be judgd on the ealier info in this post

    Finally one of the most strident opponents of “Billary” here , the posts defending Hillary & Edwards & Kerry revealed dispasionate reasoning & frankness lives.To FINNS yes I’ve been naughty , again , with another probably unread long galactic post to convert the Obama’s to the barbarian fairness darkness but the 30 odd Obama’s responses are of such varying quality that sniper fire to barbarians always gets under the ‘rules of engagement’ return snipers fire whilst the silent cn ponder the substance & maybe the 22nd Century lingo

  15. Speaking of small events, I was surprised McCain challenged Obama to a series of small ‘town hall’ debates across the US… I note the Obama campaign has been slow to accept but has not rejected the idea – they must be thinking ‘what the hell is the old fool playing at’? Can McCain trap Obama with folksy down-hominess?? Personally, I don’t think McCain is that deft or Obama that dumb…

  16. Arrggghhh…not the small, cosy town hall type meetings which both Hewson and Latham indulged in?

    Both leaders were lauded for ‘getting in touch with real people on the ground’ at the time; the media both acclaimed these meetings as signs of their political genius.

    In both cases, the morning after the election commentators were saying what a bad idea these small forum meetings were.

    And they are. They don’t reach enough people to change enough votes. They fritter away the candidate’s time and energy, giving them the illusion of doing something when they’re not.

    It’s a media dominated world. A TV appearance on the least watched television program in the nation is going to get you more than two dozen viewers.

  17. I guess this is McCain’s pitch to the blue-collar crowd where Obama has been weak – he will try and paint Obama as ‘elite’ as he can – it also nails down quite a bit of Obama’s campaigning time to McCain’s schedule (I think he’s proposed 13-14 town-halls???).

  18. Obama must learn from Kucinich’s election theft impeachment
    by Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
    June 11, 2008
    “…….. Two of the articles deal with the fact that Bush was never elected, and in fact stole the election of 2004 in Ohio. They should serve as a cautionary notice to the Obama campaign that this year’s election could also be stolen……….

    Ironically, though these facts have finally penetrated to a proposed Congressional indictment of the nation’s chief executive, they have yet to be reported in the “mainstream” corporate-owned media.”

    Not on the BushCo beholden Fox propaganda channel either.

    http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2008/3143

    Jay Leno, via U.S. News: “You know, I’ll tell you, things are not good. The price of oil doubled in less than a year. Home foreclosures are at a record high. Unemployment is surging. But yesterday . . . we saw a ray of hope. President Bush left the country. So maybe things will get better.”

  20. Ron,

    Nice post and puts the lie to some of the hysterical anti Hillary rhetoric from our friends here at PB. But, I am not expecting any retractions or mea culpas any time soon.

    Your research and clear thinking, as always, are a credit to you. It is nice to read something by someone who gathers information before drawing conclusions.

  21. Possum if you’re still about…

    Why then, is the conventional wisdom that the bounce will disappear? I noticed the votemaster said something about it being ‘temporary’…

  22. Yo ho ho – conventional wisdom is that the party’s vote is coalesing, so Obama gets some Clinton vote. But the candidate who has just won the nomination (in this case Obama) also hold the news cycle and the excitement, so they are thought to get a point or two from that. But this excitement doesn’t last, and those who switch to a candidate in a moment of such excitement are probably soft support. Some of this support bump may drop away upon greater scrutiny.

    This primary has been particularly bruising though, and Obama has plenty of negatives already out there, so it is debatable whether a rerun of these negatives will cause him to dip. People know him pretty well, for a candidate at this stage, and he has been all over the media for months.

    I guess it is more a question of whether the bump has come from Democratic partisans (who will remain onboard in a divisive contest) or excited unaligneds (who may drift to McCain if he runs well).

  24. #14, Ron, there were lines from the song Guantanamo that goes something like this:

    “I am a simple man from this land of palm trees
    Before dying I want to share these poems of my soul
    My verses are light green
    But they are also flaming red”

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=X5JLCAIJLJ8

    Obama has stated this clearly: “Let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaida leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won’t act, we will.”

    So as a simple man, what did he mean by “actionable intelligence”? Did Obama say the intelligence should be “TRUTHFUL” “ACCURATE” “HIGH VALUE”? No, he simply said “actionable”. Of course the dogs of war at the DOD and CIA would ensure the intelligence he gets are “actionable”.

    So Black Prince might disappoint the World and turn out to be more of a warmonger than the Cowboy Dubya. Sad, but that is a possibility because he will be a hostage to the dogs of War at DOD and CIA. Once a satan, always a great satan.

    As you have correctly quoted: “As an aside Obama also says in 2004 , quote “there’s not much of a difference between my position and George Bush’s position at this stage of the Iraq War”. Yes, we know.

  25. Ta Pancho and Possum.

    Appreciate the illuminating. I had trouble with it for the exact reasons you outlined Pancho – its been such a damn long and hyped primary, i couldn’t fathom people not having opinions as yet. I guess we play the waiting game then?

  27. Finns @ 24 – surely a non-issue (when it comes to the election)… McCain will definitely be viewed as more of hawk than Obama throughout the campaign.

  29. Hang on Poss, i thought that is what Obama is selling and the World is buying it in a big dose. You know talking unconditionally to Iran, Syria, N Korea, Cuba, Venezuela etc.

    The World is expecting peace, harmony and Kumbaya to be breaking out when Obama is elected. Although, the poor Hamas and Palestinians have just got their dose of reality.

    The people of the World are taking him as is, face value. they do not have the luxury of long analytical on the shade and shading of Mr. Obama’s words. Words that are matter or not matter.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/11/opinion/11friedman.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

  30. Sorry about the long absence – been very busy with assignments of late.

    A few points I’d like to make…

    1. Obama was certainly helped by Clinton’s generous endorsement of him – she outlined, in a clear and convincing fashion, why her voters should go for him as a second choice, which would have helped a LOT of her supporters to put her loss behind them and rally behind Obama.

    2. The NY Post article refers to “gale-force” headwinds against Republicans this year. I’d go further – it looks like there could well be a filibuster-proof Democrat majority in each House of Congress, plus a Dem president. In other words, we’d be in territory not visited since (let me check) 1977-79 (the 95th Congress), when the Democrats held over 60% of each House’s seats, and the Presidency.

    3. In short, the Republicans are in danger of becoming even more irrelevant than the Liberals are here – at least the Libs can make life difficult for the Government in the Senate.

  31. And what is the world expecting if McCain gets elected Finns?

    People may be more amenable to talk with Obama. Also, is it not an ‘only Nixon could go to China’ kind of thing? If Obama is perceived by the rest of the world to be more like them, will they be more amenable to hearing some hard talk?

  33. Matt, it’s possible those Republicans who can’t stand McCain may very well sit this one out in the belief that 2 years of ‘unfettered left’ will swing the voters back to them by the midterms… Obama and unabridged Democrat power as circuit-breaker for the whole mess the Republicans currently find themsleves in. Don’t know how large a group they’ll be, or if it will actually have much effect on this election…

  34. Here is his David Brooks’ view from his most recent weekly discussion on the Newshour with Jim Lehrer.

    DAVID BROOKS:I think the Republicans fully expect — and I know they fully expect Obama to really shoot upwards in the polls, which we’re beginning to see, but shoot up to a significant lead, and then McCain try to close in the last three or four weeks.

    But Obama is going to have a big lead within a couple of months because the Democrats will unify.

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june08/brookshields_06-06.html

  36. #22

    “People know him pretty well, for a candidate at this stage, and he has been all over the media for months. ”

    Pancho, I would disagree with the first part of that statement. A great many Americans (admittedly, in “the South”) think Barack Obama is a Moslem. They’re not necessarily being nasty; they’re just not politically engaged, and have the wrong impression (helped along by the Republican sleaze machine).

  37. Earlier I suggested that Al Gore might be an interesting if unlikely pick for VP. I just saw that HuffPo is reporting James Carville is suggesting the same thing.

    I’d like to retract my suggestion.

  39. Matthew,

    Given the Dems are going to go well in the Senate and HOR, is there any liklihood of people supporting Mccain as a bulwark against “wall to wall” Democrats. I only raise this because I have read a number of recent comments by Hillary supporters (mainly women) still underwhelmed by Obama and that this is how they intend to vote.

    The argument being that a strong Democratic Congress is all the protection they need.

  41. 29 Finns
    You’re drawing a pretty long bow there (and Friedman’s ‘evidence’ is entirely anecdotal and not worth a fig). America is on the nose for very good reasons in many parts of the world. If/when Obama becomes POTUS this will certainly improve the way ‘America’ appears internationally, but it will take a long, long time for the nation’s image to recover. Also, I wouldn’t make the bland judgements that you do about ‘the people of the world’. Again, what’s your evidence?

  42. Governors get to decide how votes are counted in “their” States. Here are 83 ECVs the Dems are “severely handicapped” at winning in 2008.

    11; MO, Gov Matt Blunt-(R)

    11; IN , Gov. Mitch Daniels-(R)

    34; TX, Gov. Rick Perry-(R)

    27, FL, Gov. Chuckie Crist-(R)
    ————-
    “Obama must learn from Kucinich’s election theft impeachment
    by Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman
    June 11, 2008
    ………. Two of the articles deal with the fact that Bush was never elected, and in fact stole the election of 2004 in Ohio(Gov. Bob Taft (R).) They should serve as a cautionary notice to the Obama campaign that this year’s election could also be stolen……….

    Ironically, though these facts have finally penetrated to a proposed Congressional indictment of the nation’s chief executive, they have yet to be reported in the “mainstream” corporate-owned media.”

    Not on the BushCo beholden Fox propaganda channel either.

    http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2008/3143

    Jay Leno, via U.S. News: “You know, I’ll tell you, things are not good. The price of oil doubled in less than a year. Home foreclosures are at a record high. Unemployment is surging. But yesterday . . . we saw a ray of hope. President Bush left the country. So maybe things will get better.”

  43. Apres,
    I think you’ll find that most of Finns arguments are based on false premises eg: “The World is expecting peace, harmony and Kumbaya to be breaking out when Obama is elected.”

  44. 29 Finns

    I think you are mostly right. Sadly, Obama has to win the US election not the “Planet Earth” election. The world will still be held hostage by the US one way or another. Hopefully, some of his rhetoric will not be followed by action when POTUS. Funnily enough, GWB professed to be anti-war when he came to power. Things change.

  46. GG#39,

    I’d say…unlikely.

    The US electoral cycle is much more President(or leader)-centred than Australia’s used to be.

    Ultimately, McCain was the best of a poor lot of candidates, and it’s going to show.

  47. Matthew,
    surely we’ll see the idea of wall-to-wall Dems used as a strategy to get out the vote. Perhaps not now, but in the later stages of the campaign if nothing else sticks – we’ve already seen a tacit acknowledgement that McCain isn’t energising the base in the attempts to smear Obama and whip up fear about him. You disagree?

  48. Matthew Cole @ 46,

    Whilst what you say is normally true, it didn’t hold in either 1996 or 2000 (and didn’t really in 1992 or 1988 either). In 1996, after Clinton won a landslide against Dole, the Democrats only picked up a handful of seats in the House (which was always to be expected after the Republican revolution in 1994) and lost 2 seats in the Senate.

    In 2000, after an admittedly very close “win” for Bush, the Democrats picked up 4 seats in the Senate (to split it 50/50) and a handful of seats in the House. In 1988 (a Republican landslide), the Democrats gain 1 seat in the Senate and 2 in the House.

    The only time in recent memory when there have been definite coattails in both the House and the Senate was in 2004, where the Republicans gained 3 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate. However, a lot of those Senate gains were due to long-serving Southern Democratic senators retiring with their open seats being won by Republicans.

  49. 29
    The Finnigans Says:
    The World is expecting peace, harmony and Kumbaya to be breaking out when Obama is elected.

    With respect, that is a gross strawman misrepresentation, even allowing for a bit of hyperbole.

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