“No decisions tonight”

The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,132 comments on ““No decisions tonight””

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  1. No doubt about it – Sth Dakota is a disappointment for The Kid and means that he just flops over the line rather than storms home. It’s been a tough race. I can’t recall another primary this close ever.

    But for a guy nobody had heard of a year ago to cross the line ahead of Brand Clinton remaons one of the astounding political feats of recent memory. He came from so far back he could barely be seen. So Hillary went for a campaign stroll and The Kid overtook her when she wasn’t looking.

    So, yes I’d have preferred Obama to have won both of today’s contests to put a stamp of authority on his win. But in the end is it less authoratative because the contest ended as it has mostly been fought – with split victories? I think those discussions will be drowned out by the cheering.

    And speaking of South Dakota – did anyone notice that McCain could only manage 70% of the vote in his shadow boxing match against Ron Paul and Huckleberry? That’s gotta be a worry for the Repugs. The Dems in that state also brought out the voters 2:1 over the GOP.

    Judgement Day is a-comin! (Huckabee should appreciate that).

  2. HarryH,

    Enjoying your attempt at Socratic questioning.

    Yes the hopemaster looks, smells and feels like a turkey, the confirmation of turkey status will be in by September.

  3. [Clearly “buyer’s remorse” has set in. I’ve no doubt at all that if all the primaries were re-run now, Clinton would win most of them.]

    Adam, I don’t buy this at all.

    The reason why Hillary continued to win a number of states after Super Tuesday was because many of those had poor, low educated populations who have consistently flocked to Hillary in preference over Obama.

    According to the polls, if we re-ran the primaries now, I would expect Obama to win even more convincingly. California, for example, a big delegate-rich state is now swinging firmly toward Obama while it didn’t earlier on.

    The problem with your reasoning is that it is really nothing more than contempt in disguise. Clearly, you think the people made a mistake voting for Obama and you don’t think they would make the same mistake twice. That’s nonsense. If anything, Hillary has lost respect over the primary season with her various gaffes and smear tactics.

    And to all those who keep trying to extrapolate primary results to the general election, you are making a BIG mistake. Too often, I see people ASSUMING that just because Hillary got more votes in one state, those people would not vote for Obama. This is crazy. A PREFERENCE is just that, a preference. It is not a black-and-white, “I would vote for Hillary and nobody else”.

    The only conclusions you can draw from the primaries is that, overall, people preferred Obama, and that Obama has strengths with the upper class whites, blacks, professionals, and young people, while being weaker amongst the working class, Hispanics, and Je-ws. This means that Obama needs to work on getting more support from these latter groups, but it would be wrong to assume he doesn’t have any support from such groups.

  4. I was really surprised by how confident and high spirit Hillary looked today. Especially for someone who have just lost the biggest prize. Maybe she does know something we dont know.

    The rumour mill is in overdrive about Michelle’s Holy Whitey at Trinity. If so, Barack would be FARC as they say in Columbia.

  7. Richardson, Warner and Webb are surely needed in the Senate?

    Have big doubts about Sebelius adding anything to the ticket apart from being a woman – Kansas is a pipe-dream state for November EC purposes?

    Have always supported Obama, but I think he needs HRC on the ticket.

    She needs to be convincing as a team player – her speech tonight not good enough. But she has time.

    Giving her SecHealth as well would be a great move, but what about their difference on Mandates?

    If Obama campainged with a team comprising HRC (on board in full) as VP + SecHealth, Edwards as AG and Biden as SecState – geez, that’d be powerful?

    Whilst anything can happen in the campaign (McCain losing the plot, etc), the prudent thing to do would be to maximise his chances in the Rust Belt and Nth Central states. There is no better pick than Clinton, surely? The onus is on her to come to the party now – if she does convincingly, then he’d be taking a big risk not to choose her.

  8. Eddy 202

    So he’s alledgedly a November Turkey? He could be a turkey….but he might not be a turkey?

    cmon man. you were so confident earlier. as Carville would say…put ya cajones on the table.

  9. What’s with all the angst about S.D. being some kind of let-down for The Kid? He was 18% behind in “the polls” from memory and he sailed in at a 10% loss by ten and a half thousand votes Statewide while he was stitching up the Supers for today’s spillover that annointed him.
    Not a bad week’s work really.

    Like every sperm, every ECV is sacred but you’d have to be applying Hillary Math to figure Sth.Dak.’s 3 ECVs are gonna swing it for Obi one way or the other come November.
    —————
    Tues June 3:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Apj31l0vunla06ngacINNURS_b4F

  10. 207 Expat Follower Spot on about Richardson, Warner and Webb. Breaking the filibuster with 60 votes, means we can bring in the change we need. Although their is another 3rd of the senate up for election in 2010.

  12. Eddy

    i guess that means you’re gonna sit on the fence until Election Eve then huh lol.

    You’re gonna bloviate for the next 2 months about what a turkey Obama is without the conviction that he really is a turkey.

    Pretty much sums up your M.O.

  14. Chris – they’ve got to replace Pelosi & Reid (who appear to suck badly)… some good candidates in the Senate (Webb – too jnr), surely also in the House (??). Just not sure where the numbers are in terms of unseating them, but a more heavyweight crewto work with Obama’s exec team could really produce interesting results…

  15. What do people think of Biden for SecState?

    Clark for SecDef… I dunno. Where can Dodd fit in – he’s impressive.

  16. 156
    Possum Comitatus

    You’ve presented a strong and pragmatic case for hauling Clinton out of the water and onto the Obama ship, but it’s going to irk a lot of people. The question is can the irked be mollified with a Democratic wipeout of the Republicans? I suppose it depends on how it’s presented and how Hillary Clinton behaves, but so far she does not exactly inspire on that front.

    And as for keeping Bill chained up! God help Obama if he’s got to put up with that old Alpha dog limping around in the background. Sedate him for four years maybe?

    Personally I’d be surprised if Obama offers her VP, but I’d understand the decision.

  17. 215
    Expat

    Don’t discount Dick Lugar(R) or Chuck Hagel(R) as either VP(longshots) or more likely one of the defence portfolios.

    I’m still intrigued by David Axelrod’s deliberate insertion of Lugar’s name in his interview today before Obama’s acceptance speech.

  18. Senator Clinton deserves every single word of praise spoken by Senator Obama in Minnesota. I would be delighted if she does become Senator Obama’s choice for Vice Presidential nominee. However, she’s much more valuable in the Senate and well-placed there for another run at the Presidency in 4/8 years.

    Watching Senator McCain kickoff the General Election with multiple egregious falsehoods at his “huge” rally of 200 Republicans makes me acutely aware that there’s no more time to waste before Democrats fully unite. This is doubly true for those Americans deeply worried about civil rights, especially the rights of women secured in Roe vs. Wade. The next Supreme Court appointments must not be made by Senator McCain.

    Following such a long, bellicose and heated Primary process, are the Democrats mature enough to refocus, immediately, all their resources and energy to ensure the election of Senator Obama?

  19. 159
    Possum Comitatus

    One point about the cry ‘someone should do something’, which is maybe except for Kosovo, when did the US do what anyone thought would be a good thing to do?

    Iraq was clearly NOT in that category, and Afghanistan was done with bombers at 20,000 feet and CIA guys with bags of money…in other words, a cock-up.

    I know people like to think the US is the big strong daddy who can defeat the bad guy, but you’d hardly say so on recent performances, would you?

  20. “Per Obama communications director Robert Gibbs: At about 12:16 am ET Obama and Clinton chatted by phone where Obama congratulated her and reiterated his offer to “sit down when it makes sense for you.”
    Gibbs suggests Clinton responded affirmatively, but wasn’t specific. “There are no plans to meet tomorrow” as of now.”
    http://thepage.time.com/

  21. Prof Higgins

    This was Hillary’s one and only shot at the presidency.

    However, even a Clinton hater like myself agrees that she has earnt a rise in the Senate. Harry Reid is a dud. But could they shanghai her up the ladder?

    That eternal sook and creep, The Senior Senator from New York Chuck Schumer would scream blue murder, as would Dick Durbin. But i agree she could do good work in the Senate.

  22. Betfair Odds: $1.57 Obama $2.98 McCain.

    I would suggest that ESJ should get the biggest possible loan he can and place it all on McCain.

  23. The treachery of the hopemaster predicted by Nostradamus

    Sad counsels, disloyal, cunning,
    Wicked advice, the Law will be betrayed:
    The people stirred, wild, quarrelsome,
    In borough as in town, the entire peace hated.

    Nostradamus XII Century, 55th Quatrain

  24. ESJ, if you were McCain who would you pick as running mate & why?

    HarryH, if Obama picks some flake and McCain runs a good campaign (possible), then HRC is a shoo-in for the nomination in 2012? She just has to not obviously undermine Obama (eg, say she wants to focus on her Senate role) in the campaign. Of course if he wins, then she is screwed!

  25. ESJ-
    resorting to 13th century predictions is about as relevant as the rest of your
    commentary tonight. – penis size?? Gawd’s sake man.

    Finns- I’d rather be on a high-horse than a pompous ass.

  28. jen – [Finns- I’d rather be on a high-horse than a pompous ass] – i notice you have caught Showy’s disease, namely good at describing yourself.

  33. come on Finns- you can do way better than “anyway anyway, you are.”

    btw – how are you coping with the outcome? Please tell me you won’t be supporting McCain in defiance. Come aboard and all will be forgiven – we can be a role model for the divided Dems.

  34. B.S.Fairman

    Going by Macca’s speech today i’d say anyone who attends one of his rally’s has a 1 in 30 chance of slipping into a coma.

  35. 225
    Jen

    It seems that now Eddy is bereft of a purpose, ie cheer the candidate most of us realised would lose, he’s at a loose end, so has reverted to his usual charming self and is flinging his own faeces around again.

  38. Looking back over the last 18 months Obama has produced an upset more unlikely than Bangladesh beating Australia in a 1 day match. Would think anyone in Democrats would be keen to be a team player given the chance win Presidency and to get 60 in the Senate, if not this time then 2010 and having the chance to weild some serious power. So, hopefully little chance of Hilary and Bill being public nuisances over the next few months.

    The biggest problem for the Democrats and Obama is their own internal difficulties with conflicting policy directions, influence of military industrial corporate lobbyists, etc. Good luck to Barack and Michelle. Seriously likely to challenge the entrenched establishment, at least in some ways.

  39. Jen

    Finns has set the bar that unless Barry implicitly says he will immediately ratify Kyoto, then Finns has the right to hate on the black man all the way to Nov. and beyond.

  40. 223 ESJ

    Nostradamus? I was wondering what happened to that PB poster. Sounds about as reliable as ever.

    But it’s good you’re still in touch with him.

  41. jen, like i said just earlier. look at the 3 speeches today. I give Obama 9, Hillary 7 and McCain 2.

    McCain and the Repugs should be so far behind, you cant even see them and the Dems can just walk across the line. But the reality is McCain Vs Obama is 50-50. Now you tell me why.

  42. OK Finns- my understanding is that there are no polling figures as yet reflecting the fact that there is now a decided Democrat nominee, rather than a divided Dem vote.

  43. With Hillary as VP, Obama would bury McCain. Everyone talking about the swing that is coming in the polls now that the Democratic nomination is settled is, I suspect, engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. It may turn out to be true, of couse, but until we see the numbers, assumptions on polls are not that useful a basis on which to make decisions. On current polling, Ohio (or perhaps Ohio and Virginia, depending on what sites you examine) is still the key to an Obama victory. If he does not bring Hillary into the tent, to use Possum’s phrase, then she (and, more importantly, her supporters) will piss into it.

    This is a significant point, by the way: if Hillary’s supporters think that she has been unfairly treated, then some will, out of vengeance, vote for McCain. In certain states, this could be very damaging and threatens to make the race much closer than it should be.

    While I think that Obama will likely win, I only think that he will win big if Hillary strongly supports him. She may not strongly support him just for health care. She will definitely strongly support him if she gets VP with an implied second shot at the presidency in eight years.

  44. Um…is it a divided party driven by Hills (now kaput) candidacy, along wih her fuzzy logic and stirring of her dumb supporters with lines about gas tax, bombing Iran, Commanders in Chief and sexism Finns? If so that problem will recede now that she has lost. Watch out for that Obama bump!

  45. Well what a fun day that was.

    I guessed that the Obama camp had 30 supers up his sleeve for today and the kid goes and pulls out 60. I still keep being impressed at the measured and disciplined way the Obama camp has conducted under months of pressure.

    Now we’re onto the VP question and Clinton is putting herself in the mix. Based on the chatter in here, I put some money on Webb and I think I’ll lay off as I really have no idea how this will pan out.

    If I had to make a guess, I’d say the Obama camp will, with a great sigh. sign up Clinton for VP and SoH.

    She’ll deliver key idiot demographic that missing is from the Obama profile.

    Its better than the devil finding work for idle hands if they don’t pick her.

  46. Oh, and I am a Hillary supporter who would vote for Obama regardless of who was VP, but – and this is another key support – I would not be wholehearted about it. I was very disappointing that Hillary did not get the nomination. Not disappointed enough to be an arsehole, but disappointed enough to realise that there would be plenty of others who might very well be disappointed enough to be so. Just a warning from my own personal internal narrative.

  47. The tale of Robert Taft and Dwight D. Eisenhower. You see, in politics, what is new is old, there is no such thing as NEVER and there is no permanant frienship only permanent interest.

    [In 1952 Robert Taft made his third and final try for the GOP nomination; it also proved to be his strongest effort. He had the solid backing of the party’s conservative wing, and with Dewey no longer an active candidate many political pundits regarded him as the frontrunner. However, the race changed when Dewey and other GOP moderates were able to convince Dwight D. Eisenhower, the most popular general of World War Two, to run for the nomination. According to biographer Stephen Ambrose, Eisenhower agreed to run in part because of his fear that Taft’s isolationist views in foreign policy might unintentionally benefit the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

    The fight between Taft and Eisenhower for the GOP nomination was one of the closest and most bitter in American political history. When the Republican Convention opened in July 1952, Taft and Eisenhower were neck-and-neck in delegate votes, and the nomination was still up for grabs.

    On the convention’s first day Eisenhower’s managers complained that Taft’s forces had unfairly denied Eisenhower supporters delegate slots in several Southern states, including Texas. They proposed to remove pro-Taft delegates in these states and replace them with pro-Eisenhower delegates; they called their proposal “Fair Play”. Although Taft angrily denied having stolen any delegate votes, the convention voted to support Fair Play 658 to 548; this decided the nomination in Eisenhower’s favor. Despite his bitterness at his narrow defeat and his belief that he had been unfairly ambushed by the Eisenhower forces (including Governor Dewey), after the convention Taft issued a brief statement conveying his congratulations and support to Eisenhower.

    Thereafter, however, he brooded in silence at his summer home in Quebec. As the weeks passed, Eisenhower’s aides worried that Taft and his supporters would sit on their hands during the campaign, and that as a result Eisenhower might lose the election. In September 1952 Taft finally agreed to meet with Eisenhower, at Morningside Heights in New York City. There, in order to gain Taft’s support in the campaign, Eisenhower promised he would take no reprisals against Taft partisans, would cut federal spending, and would fight “creeping socialism in every domestic field.” In fact, Eisenhower and Taft agreed on most domestic issues, their disagreements were primarily in foreign policy. Eisenhower firmly believed in NATO and was committed to the U.S. supporting anti-Communism in the Cold War.

    Following Eisenhower’s election and the GOP takeover of Congress, Taft served as Senate Majority Leader in 1953, and he strongly supported Eisenhower’s domestic proposals. He worked hard to assist the inexperienced new officials of the administration. He even tried–with little success–to curb the excesses of red-baiting U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy. By April the President and Taft were friends and golfing companions, and Taft was praising his former adversary. Defeat in 1952, it seemed, had softened Taft. No longer burdened by presidential ambitions, he had become less partisan, less abrasive, and more conciliatory; during this time he was widely regarded as the most powerful man in Congress.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Taft

  48. Much as I feel anxious at the idea of having Billary wandering the halls of the Whitehouse again, angry that they’re not back in the residence where they clearly believe they belong, I also want to see the Repugs get totally obliterated. I reckon Obama could win without Hillary, but it would be a total wipeout if she was VP.
    Maybe Obama could draw up a ‘Pre-nup’ – where if she was caught with a dagger at the ready she gets tossed out with nothing.

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