“No decisions tonight”

The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,132 comments on ““No decisions tonight””

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  1. Chris B – the US population will simply not, under any circumstances, jump to the left on just about anything. They arent Europe, they arent Australia, they arent cuddly little Canada. US political activists often are, but activists are outnumbered by massive margins by the majority of the population in every single seat and district in the country.

    They will jump to the centre at the most. And by centre, I mean THEIR centre, not ours. That’s why Obama has been very careful about what he’s said over Iraq and the military – it’s why he keeps on talking about the importance of US military dominance.

    National Security is an extremely important issue for US voters – military activity goes to the heart of the modern American narrative. If the US conquered Iraq successfully – the Republicans would be a shoe in for this election.

    Let’s not kid ourselves about what’s happening here with Obama.

    The US population is not “anti-war”, they are just “anti-wars-we-arent-winning”

    This is the same population that thought back in 2004 that the Representative (name escapes me) that had his two legs blown off in Vietnam was wimpo-peacenic because of a couple of ads!

    Look at what the Swiftboaters did to Kerry – a Vietnam Vet!

    Obama’s appeal for change isn’t an appeal for socialist revolution comrades!

  4. Poss 152

    I think both sides know exactly where they stand and thats why the loser is still acting the way they are.

    0% chance Hillary for VP.

  6. Sorry Ecky – missed you back up at 135

    I agree -Hillary is a killer of a risk! Especially since she’d be impossible to put on a leash.

    But I wonder if she’d really need to be if she was both Veep and SoH? If Hillary wanted to be Pres, her best chance would be for Obama to have a kick arse 2 term presidency and run for Pres in 2016 as the wise old lady of US politics that played a big part in the New America.

    If Obi could tie Clintons self interest into making sure he succeded – maybe it might not be such a risk at the end of the day.

    My worry with Obama having a small victory would be the nervous nellies on the Dems side effectively not giving him the capability to reform things like campaign finance or health care or social security in Congress. But a big thumping win would solve that problem completely. And if it took Brutusania to be on the ticket to get that majority – boy, if I were Obama I’d be tempted to take that risk.

  7. I said a while back that Clinton ought to concede at this point, but I’m tempted to change my mind. Two reasons:

    * For a candidate of a party whose brand is utterly discredited, and which will be thrashed in the congressional elections, McCain is polling very strongly. Clearly the voters don’t associate him with Bush or the Republican Party generally.

    * For a candidate of a party which is cruising to victory in the congressionals, who has been the presumptive nominee for some time, and who ought to be getting a bandwaggon effect by now, Obama’s loss in SD was a very ominous sign. He won all the other western plains states easily. Now at the last minute SD has rejected him.

    Clearly “buyer’s remorse” has set in. I’ve no doubt at all that if all the primaries were re-run now, Clinton would win most of them. She has won a clear majority of votes and delegates since March, when the Jeremiah Wright story broke and revealed that Obama was not the Messiah after all, just another shifty and dishonent pol, Al Sharpton in a good suit. If Obama is nominated, it will be on the strength of votes he won before March, many of which he wouldn’t get now.

    All this is very ominous for November. Obama has huge problems with working-class whites, with Hispanics and with J*ws. He therefore cannot carry FL, and will have big problems in OH, MI and PA. If McCain carries these four he will win, unless Obama can somehow carry states like VA, MS, LA and MO on the back of a huge black turnout. Well, maybe he can, but I’m sceptical.

  8. Can I play Devil’s Advocate and suggest that the prevailing depiction of HRC as some kind of monster is tad misogynistic? She fought hard for the nomination, because she had her eyes on the big prize.

    I say this as a big fan of Obama, too. I’m just worried that because a woman fights dirty like any male presidential candidate would, she is some kind of crazy harpy.

    Just a thought.

  9. Finns at 155 – I’m not a member of the school of thought that thinks the US is the Great Satan – far from it, but the yank population is what they are.

    Although, under an Obama Presidency, US military action and foreign policy certainly wont be like Bush, but it wont be too far different from Bill Clinton.

    We can only hope it might be a little smarter, but honestly, this is the Worlds superpower here – and despite their economic woes and being bogged down in Iraq, they are still and will continue to be for 20 years the worlds only superpower.

    We can only hope that with that continued capability comes leadership that is both compassionate and has the smarts to use force wisely – because as f*cked up as it might be, for the US, those two things are often two sides of the same coin.

    Especially when the world starts bleating that “something needs to be done”, because it’s generally only the US that can do it.

  10. Possum

    Would you agree with the assertion that even if they win the EC fairly marginally(remember Obama is already winning with 276 and only needs to flip Michigan to get 293) that the Dems will win massive majority in the House and Senate?

  11. The saddest part of all the vitriol here (you lot don’t even get to vote!) and all over the web is the swinging between racism and sexism.

    For Christ’s sake–the two contenders for the Democratic Party nomination were a woman and a black man. Historic stuff, people.

  13. I dont know Harry – these equivalents of US by-elections lately have been suggesting that the Dems will romp home in Congressional and Senate elections – but by-elections often produce exagerrated results.

    I’m not conviced that the blue wash will carry though in those races on election day without the EC doing the same. Maybe I’m wrong and it will happen. Polls and intrade data will start to give us an idea at least, on that score come about August or so.

  15. Dinsdale

    If we lump Bill in with our criticism of team Billary,are we still misogynists?

    Please

    There has been no Misogyny on this site. Maybe in American media but not here.

  19. For what it is worth the Dream Team is a marketers dream. The newspapers have already coined that term. It is basically giving their approval to those two candidates. The longer they use it the better. If I were the Democrats I would use that term themselves. Publicity money can’t buy. Does Fox News use that term?

  20. Chris – good for those other folks (and I dont mean any offence there)

    I’m just wondering what sort of change you think couldnt happen with a General as VP?

    Just because someone was a General doesnt make put them into a straight jacket with their politics (look at Eisenhower and his views on the so called “military industrial complex” for instance), so I’m just wondering what sort of things that having a General as Veep would preclude Obama from changing?

  21. enemy marsupial
    #145
    “Ron, If I were Obama I wouldnt say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto” either.”

    Thats the difference between Obama/you and Rudd/me. Rudd was prepared to risk huge opposition scare campaigns from ‘big oil’ , the business & mining sectors and exporters as well as middle class fears on the cost impacts & petrol increases and instead ‘sell’ the futuree the benefits for future generations If one cann’t put a political risk line in the sand over Climate & Kyoto (even if its big) , then the rest perhaps by 2020 will be fluff academic and Obama will not say ‘I unconditionally support “ratifying” Kyoto’and so as usual we disagree and are you providing a free link for the ‘bararian bama barometer’ predictor

  23. I am well aware of the propensity of Clintonites to denounce all criticism as sexist. Not me. If I had a vote in this thing, it would be for Obama.

    I have a problem with the idea that an accomplished and esteemed woman is some kind of monstrosity because she behaves in exactly the same way as her male counterparts. That’s all.

    So fire away at the pro-establishment mindset she represents. It’s the imagery I have a problem with.

  26. Ron

    You are grafting Australian political sensibilities onto the US class system. The wealth and power arrayed against something like Kyoto within the domestically-tied capitalist class in the US is mind-boggling. To take it on in a general election is suicidal and would just ensure the cause would be retarded for years.

    Awful I know. That’s the awful reality of US political power.

  28. Hillary Clinton lost this race because she and her campaign made the same mistake Adam did: they grossly underestimated Obama.

    Don’t understimate him in the general election either.

    The Democrats are the favoured party in a general election because a majority of independents are in their camp. The only way they lose this is if the party base is split come November. That will only happen if Clinton keeps her supporters clinging to false dreams of a Clinton candidacy; giving them even less time to warm to Obama. Or, more improbably, stealing the nomination and upsetting Obama’s entire support base.

    Clinton is the one thing standing in the way or party unity. If Clinton wants the Democrats to win the presidency in November she concedes this now and acknowledges the legitimacy of Obama’s victory.

  30. I agree, David. I saw McCain this morning, and he is no master orator. Not a clincher, I know, but Obama against McCain in a debate would be a very different prospect that Bush vs Kerry or Gore, who both looked like northeast patricians.

    Obama’s pull is not his leftiness, it’s his homespun popularism. Wait and see.

  31. Chris – you’ve completely confused this marsupial.

    You said “if you want change don’t put a General in as VP”

    But we dont know what change means, but we do know that regardless of what it means a General couldnt do it?

    I’m going to go and climb a tree :mrgreen:

    I dont actually think Hillary would stop ‘change’ – but some argue, and with good reasons, that the marketing of Obama with the whole “change” theme might not look good with Hillary as Veep because he’d be bringing in a member of one of the Dynasties of the past that were responsible for creating the dysfunctional mess that is US politics at the moment.

    Now that’s a fair point because the Clintons bastardised political patronage more so than any other President except the current tool that’s in the Office. But so saying, I also think that making Clinton Veep and (if not giving her SoH to boot) making her the face of Universal Healthcare wouldnt damage that marketing brand of Obamas because universal healthcare in the US is an enormous change by any yardstick.

  33. Question for you Obamabots out there,

    If Obama is for change – whatever that means, and you cant have a person on the ticket who isnt said to represent change – like HRC then why not have another “change” man on the ticket? To show your really serious about change in Washington.

    Surely that has got to be Deval Patrick Governor of Mass.?

  35. What I am saying is that a General is a worse choice than Hillary and looks like someone who would stop the change that Obama is calling for. Not that he can.

  36. #157 Adam, i am really surprised by how little attention has been put on Hillary’s win in SD. Obama was projected to win easily in SD. I pointed it out ealier today. But then again, it’s the same old story:

    [On Tuesday the more working-class white Democratic electorate of South Dakota once again proved un-winnable for Obama, as has been the case in contests from Ohio to Kentucky. By contrast, Obama won Montana, which was more upper class than South Dakota, and not nearly as liberal as in Oregon and Vermont, where Obama has fared best.

    In Montana, Obama won six in 10 Democratic voters who had completed college but only won half of those without a college degree. In South Dakota, Clinton won six in 10 working class voters, while earning a slimmer majority of support from college-educated voters.]

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10829.html

    In the end, Obama was pushed over the line by the SDs. I seem to recall that there ware outcries over the possibility that Hillary might win via the SDs. Where are the outcries now.

    For a winning candidate, he has no momentum at all since March and just limped across the line. If you look at the 3 speeches today, McCain should not be in any race at all. He should be 200-1. Yet, he is 50-50 against Obama. Below would not help Obama at all.

    [Exit polls show challenge for Obama – On the night that Barack Obama clinched his party’s nomination, one-third of Hillary Clinton’s supporters in Montana and South Dakota said they would not vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee. Exit polls from both states demonstrate that Obama inherits a fractured coalition after the longest primary race in modern history. Demographic divisions dug by class, race, gender and political philosophy haunted Obama until his last contests, effectively forcing the Illinois senator to limp across the finish line Tuesday night.

  38. My predictions for Obama’s cabinet:
    VICE PRESIDENT Senator Jim Webb of Virginia or Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio
    ATTORNEY GENERAL Senator John Edwards
    SECRETARY OF STATE Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH Senator Hillary Clinton

  39. Another ominous sign of the hopemaster’s failure to unite the Democrats, 117 supers are still to declare a preference. Presumably they are the sensible one’s who dont want to be basted with the turkey sauces.

  41. Health is the perfect job for Hillary in an Obama presidency. But not VP.

    I guess it is up to Hillary now.

    She either accepts Health Reform Czar ,or something else, and becomes a supportive part of the team

    or

    She and Bill sulk and destroy their own careers.

  42. Eddy

    you seem in a confident and predictive mood today. You got indignant earlier and insisted you predicted K.Rudd would win the election.

    Seeing as you’re now predicting November Turkies, how about a flat prediction?

    Will McCain or Obama win in Nov?

    You can even have 2 stabs at it. Obama/Clinton or Obama/no Clinton tickets.

  43. The turnout has been massive for the democratic primaries. More people voted in the primaries this year some places than voted for Kerry at the General Election in 2004. So perhaps it has not all been bad for the party in the end.

    I don’t think all the people who voted for Hillary have the same passion for her over Obama that some of her diehards do. There was an awful lot of “they’re both great candidates” going on at times during the year. Hopefully, when this has all have calmed down soon they will see the light and still vote for Barry.

  44. Chris B,

    The issue if you’re trying to win an election is votes in the right places. Pennsylvania and Virginia have Appalachian areas, but they also have large AA populations, so they stay in Obama’s column. WVa, Tenn and KY have more Appalachians and fewer AAs, so he loses more votes than he wins.

    ESJ,

    So, explain to me again what was allegedly compromised, to whom and for what end. No, really, I’m interested. The boat was an extended media stunt. It was designed to keep the eyes of the world on Timor Leste, and it did that. We did what we set out to do. It worked.

    On US politics … John McCain polled disgustingly weakly recently Indiana – 77% of the vote ! North Carolina, 73.5% of the vote. Pennsylvania, 72.8% of the vote.

    And remember, this is against opponents who have dropped out.

    Remember, 25% of Republicans have shown they dont want John McCain. Add to that his fundraising problems, his staff problems and his pathetic and useless recent speeches … and you’ve got yourself a genuine November Loser.

  46. HarryH,

    I’ll make a call at the end of September. If the hopemaster is not 10 points in front at that stage he will definitely lose.

    I think Adam’s comment was a fair summary of why the hopemaster is a turkey waiting to baste.

    Once again for the slow learners if the hopemaster is such a winner (even after winning a rigged process) how come 117 supers still havent endorsed?

    Secondly if he wins he will get nothing done – the conservatives (which include the dems) wont touch him with a barge pole once the liberal stuff is teased out – he is very much a Lathamesque figure in an American context. After all he has 40 negative ratings in what 6 months of campaigning it took HRC 8 years to get that high.

  48. It was a provocation set up by Kopassus to flush out independence supporters which you clowns fell into and many people suffered as a result.

  50. Eddy 196

    So you don’t really think Obama is a November Turkey yet? you’re not that confident yet?

    You were only bloviating earlier? you know…pissing into the wind so to speak?

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