Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.

Other news:

• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.

• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.

• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.

• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.

• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

882 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

Comments Page 15 of 18
1 14 15 16 18
  1. [If there was not going to be an MPI he would have already left the chamber.]

    My daughter was in Canberra today as part of her school “camp”. The itinerary
    included a stop over during question time. So, in the off chance that the cameras
    swung past the public gallery, I recorded he session. (All this to mitigate the
    charge that I’m a sad git.)

    Having looked at the start of question time, I can confirm that ShowsOn @ 665
    was correct and that Anthony Albanese did say “the MPI, to give notice, won’t be proceeded with”.

    I guess Nelson and his column were gathering to “scream blue murder” before being
    scuppered by (self-inflicted) events.

  2. My understanding is that an MPI can be gagged by the House. Generally, though,
    the wording of the MPI is phrased so that such an action would be seen as
    strange.

    In fact:

    The discussion may last for up to two hours but usually lasts for 50 minutes, by agreement between the parties; 15 minutes each being allowed to the proposer and the Member next speaking and 10 minutes each for other Members. The discussion may be terminated earlier by the carrying of a motion moved by any Member That the business of the day be called on.

    (from http://www.aph.gov.au/house/pubs/gtp/text/GTP_ch16.htm)

    So, such a motion may be the first thing done after the MPI begins, and there
    is nothing the opposition can do about it.

  3. Flaneur

    You are correct but an MPI is one of the rare opportunities that an opposition gets to make a point. It is very, very, very rare that they are gagged.

    So the Libs must have agreed to forego the opportunity, maybe that is why they had the censure this morning.

    But it is dumb politics in my book. 🙂

  4. Eh? She was probably just passing on a message from someone in her electorate to Ms Mirabella, but still…
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23777864-29277,00.html

    the whole article:

    A LABOR backbencher has withdrawn comments she allegedly made to a pregnant Liberal MP, who says she was told her unborn child would turn into a demon.
    Victorian MP Sophie Mirabella, who is 34 weeks pregnant, yesterday accused NSW Labor MP Belinda Neal of saying to her that “evil thoughts will turn your child into a demon”.

    Parliament’s official record, Hansard, shows Ms Neal twice denied making the comment, but this morning she told the House of Representatives she was “unreservedly” withdrawing any remarks that may have caused offence to Ms Mirabella.

    The comment was an insult to all Australians, Ms Mirabella said.

    “Ms Neal’s fitness to be a member of the national parliament needs to be questioned and the Labor party should send her off for some serious counselling and professional help,” Ms Mirabella said after Ms Neal withdrew her remarks.

  5. “Ms Mirabella’s fitness to be a member of the national parliament needs to be questioned and the Liberal party should send her off for some serious counselling and professional help”.

    Surely Belinda was only stating obvious biblical truths? Maybe Tony Abbott can help her out. 😛

  6. [So the Libs must have agreed to forego the opportunity]

    It is possible, but the response to Albanese’s statement that the MPI
    wouldn’t be proceeded with from the opposition benches, plus the
    gathering of Opposition MPs after Question Time gives me pause.

    I’d imagine the Opposition and their MSM mates would have had a
    field day with the Government’s “flouting” of Parliament, and I think
    that was what they (the Opposition) were trying to set up.

  7. [So the Libs must have agreed to forego the opportunity, maybe that is why they had the censure this morning.]

    The Government reserved their right to gag the MPI since the first 3 hours of the day was spent debating the censure motion. If the opposition let Government business proceeded in the morning, then the Government would’ve allowed the MPI debate in the afternoon.

  8. [I’d imagine the Opposition and their MSM mates would have had a
    field day with the Government’s “flouting” of Parliament, and I think
    that was what they (the Opposition) were trying to set up.]

    It’s essentially a convention that the opposition can’t have a censure motion and an MPI on the same day. Fair enough I think, I mean the parliament has a bit of legislating to do.

  9. 711 A big gas deal was announced in Brisbane today too.

    “Gladstone will become one of the world’s largest liquified natural gas export centres by 2014 after resources giant Santos today announced it had signed a partner to a $7.7 billion world-first project to convert coal seam gas to liquified natural gas (LNG).

    Coal seam gas will be piped via a 450 kilometre pipeline from gas fields near Roma and Injune to Gladstone, where it will be chilled and liquified for export on Curtis Island in Gladstone Harbour.

    Santos has announced Malaysia’s national oil company Petronas, with assets of $50 billion, will take a 40 per cent stake in the project.

    Petronas is the largest liquified natural gas producer in Asia and the world’s third-largest LNG producer in the world.

    Santos’ Acting CEO David Knox said the project could become as big as the North West Shelf gas project off the shore of Western Australia.”

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/historic-77b-qld-gas-project/2008/05/29/1211654206589.html

  10. Why would a news service put on Rudd asking if the papers he had were in site of the cameras? How is that news or is it just sh.t stirring? Want to guess which channel?

  11. “The comment was an insult to all Australians, Ms Mirabella said.”

    Only to those with devil children. Why is it an insult to all Australians? Is Sophie’s baby of much interest to the rest of Australia? Is her baby going to “the one”? Did I miss that memo?

  12. Basil Fawlty @ 711 – Ford were building natural gas powered Falcons for taxis back in the late 1990s. Don’t know if they still do.

    In the U.S. you can buy new cars off the showroom floor that will run on petrol, alcohol and natural gas, so there’s no reason Ford and GMH couldn’t do that here within weeks if there was a demand. It probably only needs is a push from the government.

    Also all Ford cars sold in some European countries are dual petrol+natural gas. They have to import the NG. We have it in abundance literally on 80% of the population’s doorstep and all the talk is about saving, at most, 5 cents/litre on petrol. Sigh 🙁

    Wonder how many cars could be converted each year for the $2 billion Nelson’s cut in excise would cost?

  13. [Correct Frank. Was he a member of the Libs?]

    Have no idea, though he’s been cheering for the libs since Rudd got elected.

  14. Inside tip it is “strongly thought” that the Cabinet leak was from Resources and Energy. Ian McFarlane’s old stomping ground.

    Expect a few resignations for “family reasons” as the remaining Greenhouse Mafia are finally put out to pasture. 😉

  15. MayoFeral, sigh indeed, it appears that CNG is also vastly less polluting and greenhouse effect inducing. And we boast about these ‘deals’ where we give our valuable resources to other countries, all the while these morons in the liberal party
    rant about a bloody useless 5 cents.

  16. It appears that the Federal Police are not going to investigate the cabinet leak. Probably a good thing as I don’t recall them having too much success in tracing leaks in the past. Better to put the time and effort into getting the process working I think.

    “The Australian Federal Police has not yet been asked to investigate either leak, AFP Commissioner Mick Keelty said.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23778511-5014046,00.html

  17. Isn’t it odd that that the leaks started after the news that there was basically no chance of a public service pay rise in next 3 years? Not the way to get people on side or to recuit talent.

  18. [“The Australian Federal Police has not yet been asked to investigate either leak, AFP Commissioner Mick Keelty said.”]

    Hmm, but ABC Online say there are investigating.

    [The Australian Federal Police are investigating the leak of Cabinet documents on the Government’s FuelWatch scheme.

    The second Cabinet leak this week has revealed that four government departments advised against the FuelWatch scheme, warning it could push up prices.

    Treasurer Wayne Swan says laws have been broken and the incidents will be investigated.

    The head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet has now referred the matter to the AFP.

    The Department is also completing its own review into the current access and distribution of Cabinet papers.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/29/2259697.htm

  19. The Public Service was offsided badly when Rudd was Chief of Staff to the Queensland Goss government too. It could be a bit of a Rudd blindspot, BSF.

  20. I only read the Australian online for the cartoons (honest) but I inadvertantly clicked on Shanahan’s latest literary deposit there.

    I did’t know whether to laugh or cry. The man has a serious problem, and it is consuming him. Such irrational hatred is abnormal and unnatural and goes well beyond political opposition. It is Mugabe like in its intensity and its dissociation with reality.

    Please someone, do something. For his sake.

  21. Cabinet documents are secret squirrel classified stuff, they may look identical to the average reader but there are subtle changes in line spacing, pagination etc.

    If the AFP can get a hard copy of the leaked document they can easily trace it to a single section of a Govt Dept.

    But as I said before, PM&C already know the who, when, what, where. 😉

  22. And I’m also thinking the usual suspects of the Lib leaks aren’t there (ie the OO and others) – when does Oakes get a scoop??? And by whom?

  23. So Gerard McManus declares in the Herald Scum that “the honeymoon is over” for Rudd. These guys dont even need opinion polls to twist any more, they can just declare it. Given this is the fifth or sixth time that they’ve declared it, I’m happy to ignore their opinions

  24. Well at least Oakes has confirmed that it was not leaked by a minister. That means it would have to be a pretty high level public servant that did it.

  25. 732
    Cille, I heard Laurie Oakes confirm on PM that it wasn’t a Minister who had leaked, ergo, it’s the public service. There was then some discussion from a rep. from the public service union, that there was possibly some disgruntlement around that they were working hard to provide advice as requested, and then, it wasn’t taken, or that the person felt so strongly about the “rightness” of their advice, they should prevail, rather than the government. He wasn’t saying it was advised, just that it might be motivation. Then Rudd was on saying that if the public service was protesting about how hard they had to work, they’d better get used to it. Then Swan saying it was the job of the public service to provide advice, but it was the job of the government to consider that advice and come to a decision about the policy, including debating the advice proffered. Personally, I think someone in the public service is trying to help the Opposition. No evidence for this, just my normal paranoia.

  26. ruwakake – thanks for the info, but there is no way Martin would have leaked in a bucket – I used to work at the ACTU (albeit as a very minor underliing secretatial position) when he was assistant secretary to Bill Kelty – I have great faith in Martin

  27. I suspect the list of suspects for the leak is already pretty short.
    Asking the AFP to go looking is a complete joke – they couldn’t find a leak in a sieve and it’ll probably cost about $8M and take 12 months or so. It would be interesting to find out who has been put in charge of the investigation.
    I’m sure there’s plenty who want to give Keelty a shove – this might be their chance.

  28. Cille

    Sorry if you thought I was saying that Martin Ferguson was the source of the leak. Of course he was not.

    He has taken over a Dept. well known for promoting “Big Resource Companies” and Rudd has been stupid in not cleaning out the politicised PS left over from the Howard years.

    As I said expect some PS retirements shortly 🙂

  29. ruawake – no probs – I just got a bit riled I guess and caught up. You’re right tho about the PS – we need a clearing house now

  30. 741
    Ruawake, I reckon the Ruddster has a much smarter tactic than Keating’s night of the long knives. He’ll just work whatever bastard did the leaking into an early grave, or stick ’em in a room far away from power, where they’ll go psychotic from lack of sensory stimulation. Just my sick revenge fantasy. But, it’s all just so interesting really. Honeymoon may be over, and engagement begun. Frankly, I still reckon the gov’t is a work in progress, but on all fronts, well, excepting the stupidity from Belinda Neal, demonstrating increased confidence and competence. Stupid predictions from the likes of Gerald Henderson, notwithstanding.

  31. 742 Cille
    I don’t believe it will be a clearing house so much as the slow burn.
    I’ve already posted here before about how I think that the LP has brought up a generation of poor decision makers under Howard through lack of practice. There’s no way the current shadow front bench will be a good government even if given the opportunity.
    The top level of the PS will not be much different. It will be much better if the tier below the top in the PS force the dead wood out rather than create a vacuum. Clearing means that someone has to chose the successors, and sometimes that is obvious, but it’s much better for them, and their future subordinates, if they emerge rather than be anointed. Whoever was advising Rudd on the 2020 summit will know this and presumably was consulted. I know for a fact that there are larger cultural movements going on behind the scenes – Rudd has already made specific moves to put things in to play, but they may not emerge for some time.
    So the only thing Rudd can do in this process is just keep turning up the wick. The motivated and the committed will survive while the dead wood will find it intolerable. In the short term you’ll find underlings to the department heads being invited to present to the ministers, and that’s really the sign to those at the top that their time is up. Some will fight to hold on and this can sometimes take years, but they will be sitting in an office watching the leaves change colour – it’s soul destroying stuff. Meanwhile the pace will lift, and with a little bit of planning the PS will be running at a pace that will just blow the mind of the next conservative government.

  32. Harry @ 737- thanks for that -and Snapper just for fun – I don’t know if you remember this but don’t the libs remind you of the thunderbirds

  33. What i do like is Rudds’ attitude towards the bureaucracy, put simply they don’t make the decisions the government does, and if they don’t like it then they should pull their head in or join a party and try to get democratically elected.
    And for Oakes to justify it, sorry as usual Laurie doesn’t give a stuff about process just news but i suppose it is his job.

  34. onimod says

    “know for a fact that there are larger cultural movements going on behind the scenes”- Rudd has already made specific moves to put things in to play, but they may not emerge for some time”

    Hey Onimod I’m probalbly on your side, but what are these cultural movements going behind the scenes?

  35. I think it’s been a good day for the only professional party in the ACT, led by the PM.

    If anybody with half a brain cell still thinks fuelwatch is bad for consumers, I suggest they grab a replay of tonights 7.30 Report. Game over!

    What about the former media spokesman for Dubya saying that the war in Iraq was unnecessary and based on lies to sell it to the people? Dubya is f*ck*d if his conservative religious beliefs are legit when he dies!

    FUTURE PREDICTION:

    The media to turn on the uselessness of both Nelson and Turnbull, and throw their support behind Cossie as leader and Downer as shadow treasurer, well before the next election. You read it here first. So says Centre. 😉

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 15 of 18
1 14 15 16 18