Morgan: 58-42

That non-existent Morgan poll discussed in the previous post has now shown its face four days behind schedule. The phone survey of an unusually small sample of 618 respondents supports last week’s Newspoll finding that some of the gloss has come off Labor’s lead, which is at 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 58-42 on two-party preferred. This is down from 62-38 at the Morgan face-to-face poll published the previous Friday and 62.5-37.5 at the previous phone poll from mid-April, and is on both measures Labor’s weakest result since the election.

In other news, News Limited reports that Alexander Downer is “expected to quit Parliament within days”, having “delayed his departure until after Treasurer Wayne Swan tonight outlines Labor’s first Budget in 12 years, so as to avoid distracting from the Coalition’s response to it”. This of course will mean a by-election for his South Australian seat of Mayo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. 299 Possum Comitatus – That is brilliant Possum. If that doesn’t make it into parliament I’ll go he.

  2. Brenda is full off p#ss and wind.
    He’s going to oppose the alcopop tax that has allready been added. Bit late now wouldn’t you thunk?

    “With the new tax on ready-to-drinks already being collected, the Opposition decision raises the prospect that the tax could eventually be declared illegal. Incoming independent Nick Xenophon said he would wait until he had taken his place before deciding his position on the issue. Family First senator Steve Fielding is also undecided.”
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23705992-911,00.html

  3. I don’t know how to comment on the politics, but the claims that all pensioners are struggling are false: “Australia’s 3.5-million pensioners are overlooked Australians, and are really struggling to make ends meet living off the pension,” Senator Fielding said.

    See
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/16/2246997.htm

    It may be unpopular ot say but, while some pensioners do indeed struggle, many benefits are not means-tested and so some people receiving benefits are in asset terms millionaires. Those that claim to be “asset rich but income poor” are often so only because they have systematically engineered their finances to be so, in order to claim the pension. Others have deliberately spent their super, meant to provide for their retirement, on lavish trips and 4WDs, rather than saving it to live on. This is greed at work, not need.

    Statistically in Australia, our poorest are generally our young, especially singles who are renting. You can find rich and poor individuals in every age group, but the facts are that those over 55 are on average the wealthiest in our society.

  4. Has anyone seen or heard of a business representative criticising the budget? I haven’t. It can’t be bad for business can it?

  5. Gary 305

    Not to my knowledge, because any business concerned about its finance costs would have been relieved with the focus on inflation (interest rates matter to business too).

    Even the Economist (not that it means that much) has said it was sensible. Serious economists like John Quiggan have generally rated it well, with the exception of lost opportunities on reducing company car tax benefits and more action on climate change. But overall macro-economic balance is pretty sound.

  6. Nelson supported the tax changes on alcopops when it was announced. Another backflip. Does this man or party actually STAND for anything any more??

  7. On Ch9 TV news this afternoon the Anz Bank chief economist slammed Nelson’s budget reply as irresponsible and inflationary.

  9. Gary Bruce. The solar panel businesses say they are likely to go down the gurgler as a result of the means test on income earners over $100,000 no longer being eligible for the rebate. Can’t remember the size of the rebate, pretty hefty though, around $8000. Many cancelled orders already. Govt allegedly targetting those who can least afford solar panels, but business says the majority cannot afford to shoulder the cost anyway, even with the rebate. Maybe the top of that income ceiling can, but anyone most in need of reducing their power costs would find the outlay unaffordable, it is said.

  10. Did they means test the Gas conversion on Cars rebate? That would make more sense that the solar panel rebate being means tested.

  11. Crikey

    Yes we put in panels with the rebate. It was an amount per watt installed ($*) capped at 1000 watts, hence $8000 limit. Our installation cost about $13500 less rebate = $5500. Without the rebate its not really economic.

  13. So the shadow minister for pensions thinks the pension will be increased – unfortunately she forgot to mention it to the “leadership team” surely if you are a shadow minister you are part of the “leadership team”?

    Can the Liberal party descend into more uselessness?

  14. Unbelievable???

    I tune into tonights news and I see pensioners stripping off at Flinders Street station in Melbourne because Rudd didn’t give ’em enough in the budget. Are they for real? Now they decide to protest after all these years. What a laugh!

    I hate to break it to ’em but it was their hero Howard who introduced the GST and indexed their pension benefits to CPI and not average weekly earnings. They’re only protesting now because there is a chance they might get something out of the Rudd labor government.

    If it was the Labor party who opposed the alcopops tax and backflipped on the fuel excise the MSM would have crucified them.

    The MSM are a joke! They are even glorifying those Melbourne gangsters now.

  15. [I hate to break it to ‘em but it was their hero Howard who introduced the GST and indexed their pension benefits to CPI and not average weekly earnings.]

    And also introduced Welfare To Work which forced NEW Disability Pensioners onto Newstart if they didn’t meet the new 15 hour per fortnight work rule..

  16. Age Pensions
    Maximum Pension Rate Per Fortnight
    Single $546.80
    Couple $456.80 (each)
    Additional payments and benefits you may be entitled to:
    Pharmaceutical Allowance may be payable.
    Rent Assistance may be payable.
    Telephone Allowance may be payable.
    Utilities Allowance may be payable.
    Remote Area Allowance may be payable.
    A $500 Advance Payment of Age Pension may be available.
    You may also be eligible for a Pension Concession Card
    http://www.centrelink.gov.au/internet/internet.nsf/payments/pay_how_agepens.htm
    singles are doing it a bit tough but couples ain’t got a lot to complain about.

  17. 311
    Socrates – I’d love to have a chat at length about your installation at some point.
    Let me know if you’re interested.

  18. The bill for age pension is about $25 billion if I remember rightly. That is also set to grew as the aging population gets older. So a 10% boost is going to cost about $2.5 billion. The problem is that $2.5 billion is just going to be spent which will drive up inflation.

  19. Just saw the “Protest” on Today Tonight – their argument falls flat slighty when a “Struggling Pensioner Couple” are shown driving a 4 Wheel Drive vehicle.

  20. What’s the odds they were all Family First members too? Or did Fielding just happen to find the protest by luck? How many were there too? I saw about a dozen at most. Mind you, anyone willing to get their kit off in Melbourne weather is fairly brave.

  21. [What’s the odds they were all Family First members too? Or did Fielding just happen to find the protest by luck? How many were there too? I saw about a dozen at most. Mind you, anyone willing to get their kit off in Melbourne weather is fairly brave.]

    I noticed John Michael Howson in the crowd, and he’s not short of a buck either. But it does look like a Fundies first stunt.

  22. In truth the MSM have turned the whole budget process into a circus. Channel 7 and mark riley a case in point – either instigating the “pensioner revolt” aka “revolting pensioners” or very close to it.

    Shanananhan not much better either !

  23. What some of you may not know is that 3AW, Neil Mitchell, received an e-mail early in the week (Monday I think) from a pensioner suggesting jokingly that they should gather outside Flinders Street Station topless and protest about the BRUMBY governments treatment of pensioners. Mitchell then pushed this for all it was worth. So it was being organised before the federal budget. Sponsored by AW and by a bloke who rails against unions and taxi drivers for doing just what the pensioners did. Mitchell was shirty on the taxi drivers and teachers getting their own way with Brumby. He thought if it can work for them then it can work for the pensioners. What a bloody hypocrite.

  25. I would estimate a hundred or so. not really all that good given the leg up it received by AW, given that their audience would be predominantly in that age group.

  26. [Guess what station John Michael Howson works for and guess what his politics is?]

    Which is ironic as it was the McMahon Govt in power when the ABC axed Advenure Island in 1972 which Howson both wrote and appeared as Clown. 🙂

  28. [I would estimate a hundred or so. not really all that good given the leg up it received by AW, given that their audience would be predominantly in that age group.]

    It was like one of the Rally For Justice here in WA organised by the late Joan Troy and egged on by Howard Sattler, the First one had 1,000 protestors, the second a couple of hundred, and the 3rd one which I observed had 5, including a senior citizen piper, there were actyually more police officers escorting the march than protestors.

  30. It was actually 150 people, still a piss poor effort.

    [Angry pensioners stripped off in the heart of the Melbourne CBD today to protest against their treatment in the Federal Budget.

    The aged pensioners were part of a group of about 150 people, who gathered at the intersection at Flinders and Swanston streets, to protest against their treatment in the Federal Budget.

    They managed to disrupt traffic for about 15 minutes, before being moved by police to the steps of Flinders Street Station.

    The pensioners want the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to increase their funding.

    Patricia Reeve from the Fair Go for Pensioners Coalition says the pension rate should be increased from 25 per cent of average weekly earnings, to 35 per cent.

    “We’re delighted they’ve announced a review of pensions, but people want to make the point that you can’t live well on the pension,” she said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/16/2246997.htm

  31. Ok. It shows I am not in Melbourne at the moment. Not that I listen to 3AW when I am there. The Fundies probably were there just trying to get some publicity.

  32. I like Michelle Grattan’s conclusion. “But the budget, product of primarily of Rudd, Swan and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, should be “Labor” enough to impress the party faithful, just as it has impressed quite a few in business, rather a remarkable double.”

    Rudd will have those pensioners eating out of his hand by the time of the next election IMHO.

  33. Was Dr Who’s? reply, simply an attempt to “stop the rot” when it comes to the Coalition base?. In Possums thingy he reckoned that this “I’ve never even considered the ALP before but perhaps now I might” movement is a serious problem for the Libs

    1st… We get the bogan’s … then, we get the babies … THEN!, we get the women!

  34. Crikey Whitey @ 309 –

    Don’t know why there would be so many cancelled orders because of the $100K income limit as I assume those who have ordered would also have submitted the paperwork to get approval for the rebate and these should be covered on the old rules.

    Anyway, for anyone living outside of SA and QLD, solar isn’t really worth it financially. Both those states are introducing a 44 cents/kwh payment on the power you feed into the grid which may give you a better than bank interest return on the investment for a 1KWh system ($3,800 to $5,000 after the federal rebate, plus another $440 for an electronic meter). Economically it doesn’t make sense to get anything bigger, though some do for environmental reasons.

    I’m happy with my system, however, the rebate money would probably have been better spent on setting up large solar arrays in the bush.

  36. MayoFeral at 334. I do not pretend to understand, but reporting on what was said. It was, I suppose one should guess, ABC Radio.

    Lateline is just on, issue is featured.

  38. Nevertheless, Frank. Can you, or anyone, put an argument against the base level of pensions being lifted. And any nonsense about adding to inflation will not constitute an argument. Given that pensioners are unlikely to rush off and buy plasmas, have babies, or even eat that much more. Probably they would like to be able to pay their bills. And pay for their taxis, and prescriptions, and hire needs for equipment, such as shower chairs. Hardly inflationary.

  40. I’m not so much worried about old age pensioners as those on disability pensions.

    It’s not as if being on the old age pension creeps up on you unexpectedly. Anyone with even a miniscule of brain matter plans for when they’re no longer working. The majority of pensioners therefore do not have a mortgage; many of them have sold their equivalent of a McMansion and downsized, which also helps.

    A disabled pensioner, on the other hand, has had no opportunity to prepare themselves for life on the pension (noone says “Well, I’d better pay off the mortgage as a priority, I’m going to be permanently disabled in two years’ time”). Their expenses are arguably higher than a normal pensioners, and their long term prospects pretty dismal – if they haven’t already got the house or the car, there’s no real prospect of them ever being able to afford them.

    I’m far more sympathetic to their plight than that of the rather chubby looking old people I saw divesting themselves of good quality clothing.

  41. Zoom

    I agree; my comments on post 303 related to old age pensioners. Other types such as disabled pensioners often have a much greater need for assistance and may have had no prior opportunity to save due to circumstances beyond their control. Single supporting parents are another group that shows up as clearly socially disadvantaged on most economic statistics and deserving assistance.

    I should add that I’m not against any increase of benefits to old age pensoners either. But I think there are higher priorities at a time when we ought to be cutting spending. And IF those benefits go up, they should be carefully targetted and means tested. Old age pensions consume very large chunks of the budget, and the money is almost all spent, not invested. Hence at the risk of sounding like an economic rationalist, it is inflationary.

  43. 340
    zoom Says:
    May 17th, 2008 at 8:45 am
    I’m not so much worried about old age pensioners as those on disability pensions

    HEAR HEAR!

  46. I’m no Buswell fan by any means but surely they politically have him by the short and curlies now. These things can just get out of hand. I hate to say this but I’m beginning to feel sorry for the guy. Just let him crash and burn in silence now.

  48. 344 Gary Bruce Says:
    May 17th, 2008 at 10:57 am
    It seems the SMH is aguing that people on $3000 a WEEK should be getting the baby bonus etc. I don’t buy it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/more-pain-for-110000/2008/05/17/1210765188978.html

    from the article:
    “the “working middle class” north-west, in suburbs like Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Cherrybrook and West Pennant Hills.”

    LOL .. yeah I’m really gonna feel the pain for someone living in West Pennant Hills …
    the SMH is really sh1tting me these last few years … their editorial today about the budget is a load of crap as well

  49. Brendan’s latest simpleton argument – we don’t need to bring in skilled labour if unemployment is set to rise. Ie just skill up those who lose their jobs so that they can go to the areas that are lacking workers. Easy. Spot the the problems with this argument.

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