Morgan: 58-42

That non-existent Morgan poll discussed in the previous post has now shown its face four days behind schedule. The phone survey of an unusually small sample of 618 respondents supports last week’s Newspoll finding that some of the gloss has come off Labor’s lead, which is at 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 58-42 on two-party preferred. This is down from 62-38 at the Morgan face-to-face poll published the previous Friday and 62.5-37.5 at the previous phone poll from mid-April, and is on both measures Labor’s weakest result since the election.

In other news, News Limited reports that Alexander Downer is “expected to quit Parliament within days”, having “delayed his departure until after Treasurer Wayne Swan tonight outlines Labor’s first Budget in 12 years, so as to avoid distracting from the Coalition’s response to it”. This of course will mean a by-election for his South Australian seat of Mayo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  3. Muskiemp 7
    “I can just imagine the Liberal response if the budget is reasonable:”
    They have already started, calling it the ‘anti mother and pro bludger’

    Yes, I saw that little head kicking performance by Abbott on the Midday News. Looks like he is back to his usual form. But it was the venom spit of the politically impotent.

    Crikey Whitey 74
    That Wiki biog of Hartcher sounds just a bit too good. Written by an admirer, perhaps?

    And as to Turnbull, I think the best days of his political career may well be behind him after that truly ridiculous interview on the 7:30 report tonight.

    Swan has delivered an economically sensible and politically astute budget.

  6. Cruising along, Crikey. Some days not too bad other days not so good.

    Would sure like some answers though. It’s painfully slow getting anywhere under the public health system.

    I would like to have seen Swan put more upfront money into the health system though.

    The way they have been reducing services and cutting hospital beds in the past 10 years has amazed me.

    Have often wondered if Howard & Co realised that the Australian population was growing and aging fast, requiring a continual increase in the health budget to cover this.

    Also, if you look at what is happening in Burma & China now, what would happen if there was a major catastrophe in this country, a major epidemic, an aircraft accident or a terrorist attack?

    How would the overstretched system we have now cope?

  7. Frank, the Utilities Allowance is good, if that is what you mean, but anyone would think that the overall pension/allowance rate should be and should have been increased beyond the CPI, so called.

    I had the sad experience of working in the State Welfare system, where it was suddenly decided that foster carers would not receive the customary CPI increase for the subsidy paid for children in their care. A situation which I thought outrageous. And one which continued for some six, at least, years. A situation which wow, resulted in difficulty in recruiting foster parents.

    It was as if the all people are bludgers mentality had taken over. Despite the service offered. The same mentality either preceded or overtook the debased attitude of the Howard Government.

    And Vera, I am single. Not yet a pensioner. And paid big dollars taking on, battling for and looking after my nieces. Lawyers, Family Court etc. Not bitter, happy, but what about it, guys? Not to mention what I do for the others. Again, one would, but hell, the forgotten? As a single, one gets to do a lot.

  9. Listening again to Delroy. Introductory starters.

    Combined Pensioners Association angry.

    Seniors Bonus not means tested.

    Travel pensioner discounts favours the better off.

    Respondents:

    Rage! Rage! The single pensioner, quite probably the same person. Bill. Age over 70, he talks of. We are forgotten. Because we are dying. Dares Kevin to look him in the face. Well informed about the wealthy superannuant. Not him. No tax breaks for them. As he said before, I life long Labor supporter, worked to return a Labor Government, is disgusted.

    Fran thinks its a good thing that Rudd has found a way of getting rid of the pensioners, by starving them to death. Says she is a lifelong Labor voter, cannot believe that the Labor Government does not give a damn. Just like Howard.

    Vicki says that she has a disabled son, who is able to work occasionally. She is 50 years of age, sees nothing for her in the Budget. As a person herself on a Disability Support Pension, in rental situation, she sees little future. Wonders about the little to no chance of long term public housing accommodation. She says she has another lad living there, whom she portrays as needing some care. His status was not made entirely clear.

    Mark on DSP thinks nothing in it ‘for us.’ But does not worry about himself, but for the unemployed youth in his (regional) area. Thinks he is damned and neglected under any Government of any type, hopes that Labor would redress the position as he ages.

    Carolyn thinks in her 60’s that hit with massive increase in heath fund costs that the assumed ‘drop outs’ from the Health Funds will cause the funds to increase their premiums to the extent that she will have to drop out.

    On DSP in his fifties, believes that the pension should be increased, that the utilities allowance compared to his rental costs are no compensation for food and petrol prices, goes without any luxury. Turnbull a bit miffed that the higher end of the earners may miss out a little. Is paying for private health, but thinks cannot carry on.

    Jenny, DSP, agrees with Bill, at the discrimination against the pensioner, nothing for them, although she offers that Carers deserve what they received. She is also in private health fund, but concerned that she may not be able to maintain it, despite going without in other areas.

    Clem, DSP, vision impaired, medical needs high, disappointed too that nothing has been reformed or put into needs based. Remarks that Work for the Dole did not appear at all as a reform, though will wait to hear tomorrow. (Not sure what that meant in respect of the issue)

    Wayne, in his fifties, in a hit and run incident, complaining about the mean spiritedness of the Costello Howard Government, being ill treated to the point of desperation then total loss of benefits.

    Work for the Dole, Centrelink rules like a ball and chain, a killer, someone needs to do something about them. Talks of the money being made through mining, but when will it trickle down to those in need.

    John agreeing with the callers, that neither Swan nor Turnbull are interested in ensuring that Australia adopts a moral stance vis a vis cheap imported labor and products.

    Ray, formerly DSP now Age Pensioner, says the GST for pensioners should have been cut. He is a survivor, but. GST was brought in by skullduggery, courtesy Democrats. (though not Don Chipp) Talks of doom.

    Chris, not yet a pensioner, wonders why such a large surplus did not allow the pensioners an increase. Yet states that he believes it cannot be spent ‘all in one go.’

    Trish, 83, believes that nothing in the Budget was made available for her son, in his sixties in wheelchair, gets 12 hours a week help, which is due to be reduced, no respite available. Worries about what would happen to her son when she dies or she suffers another heart attack. She says her body is wearing out. (!!)

    Peter says there are always unhappy people under any Budget. Very disappointing and understandable about the earlier callers, but everyone must keep tight and bight their lips, the oil, the inflation, would have become much worse if it were still Howard.

  10. Crikey, except for the last caller Peter, the whole talkback session sounded like it was staged by the Carers Alliance.

    And as for the vision impaired fellow, he can work fulltime and STILL get the DSP as it isn’t subject to the Income and Assets Test for Vision Impaired people.

  11. [Work for the Dole, Centrelink rules like a ball and chain, a killer, someone needs to do something about them. Talks of the money being made through mining, but when will it trickle down to those in need.]

    Wayne musn’t have heard about the changes regarding the relaxation of the rules and for JN providers to use discretion in regards to missing appointments handing in forms etc.

  13. Oh, and Hartcher would fit in well at The Australian. He often cant help himself in trying to help out the Liberal party. Hartcher is reluctant to notice that banks and businesses like this Budget and, they are the ones who have to swim in this economic environment. But alas since late last year with some management changes the SMH did start leaning more to the right.

  14. Hey you gotta love those Victorian Libs, at a time when their party is in a serious crisis right across the board. What do they do, engage in childish anti-semitic slurs on one of their own!
    And federally, if they have any sense at all they will cease their petulant carping, clean their own house of some of the nasties who have crept in and develop some real alternative policies. It is obvious that they will not make any traction against Rudd and Co at least for the foreseeable future, so they have the time to do these things. I suspect the legacy of Howard will be a long time in the wilderness!

  17. Steve, watching this debacle unfold is a bit like watching “The Office” (pommie version of course), really cringe inducing 🙂

  18. After seeing turnbull today, if he is the hope for the Libs, god help them. He calls the budget high taxing and high spending despite tax cuts and cuts in spending more than offset by savings. Using his criteria, Costello’s budgets were bad too

  19. Having seen the Four Corners show on carers and had parents care for someone for some years, I have mixed views on this. I agree carers should be supported fairly if they are obliged to care for someone. But I disagree with the idea that people should always be supported to care for someone in their own home. Sometimes that is not in the best interests of either them or the person being cared for, even though emotionally they may want to do it. In many cases, the real answer is to have better institutional care arrangements. At present, lack of bed space is the real reason many carers are forced to look after severly disabled people. The solution is more beds, not more $ to carers.

    Philosophically, this issue is a good reason why I am a fan of Australian philosopher Peter Singer’s views on the ethics of treating people with severe disabilities in the first place. His views are controversial, and frequently misquoted or misunderstood, but he is trying to grapple with issues that most politicians (and far too many religeons) would prefer to avoid. When someone’s quality of life is absolutely zero, with no prospect of improvement, it can be quite cruel to artifically keep them alive. We have never had to resolve these questions before, because we didn’t have the technology to keep people alive indefinitely. But now we do, we should think more carefully about when it is appropriate to use it.

    I don’t wish to offend anyone with these views, and respect that carers and many others may disagree. I wouldn’t wish being a full time carer on anyone. But I think we should question whether there are times when it may be the wrong thing to do, and therefore shouldn’t be supported. I’d rather more $ went into formal institutional care, which is more effective if properly resourced.

  20. I’d rather more $ went into formal institutional care, which is more effective if properly resourced.

    Not sure that is true. I would be surprised if (good quality) formal institutional care was cheaper than offering more support for home/family based care. (Though I agree that more $ for some good quality institutional care is also needed, particularly respite care to give the home based carers a break.)

  21. Socrates
    there was an email going around a year or so ago, portraying a woman who had been horrifically burnt in a drink drive accident (she was an innocent victim).

    From memory, she had lost her hands and feet, was unable to speak, had one eye (no eyelid, so needed drops applied every 20 minutes) and was basically dependent on someone being there every minute for 24 hours of the day just to survive.

    Yes, she can be kept alive indefinitely – but is that really the humane option? And how can anyone know what she wants to happen?

    On the wider issue of carers – I was on a hospital board for many years (regional, so it covered more than one hospital and a few aged care facilities). Looking after someone at home is definitely cheaper and delivers far better outcomes for the person concerned.

    Basically, patients who go to aged care homes are going there to die – the average life expectancy is six months.

    Another factor to consider is that yes, we have an ageing population, but it is a far healthier ageing population than it was even ten years ago and this is an increasing trend – the parabolic curve linking age and health problems has moved significantly, with the health problems kicking in when people reach their eighties, rather their sixties.

    So caring for elderly people is getting progressively cheaper, despite their rising numbers.

    As for hospital beds – the need for these is decreasing, again due to advances in health. Operations which used to require recuperation in hospital and now done in the doctor’s surgery. Others which once required weeks of hospitalisation now see the patient out in a matter of days, with far better long term health outcomes.

    The real area of health shortage is that of people – and that’s a training issue.

  22. “turnbull motors” i read it somewhere in here lastnight i commend whoever it was who came out with that one. just watched the interview he did with kerry o’brien

    “i mean they spent more money on rudd labor programs than they did on howard/costello ones” – wow what a bloody bright spark. bye bye work for the dole and a whole lot of other useless shit howard brought in.

  23. All quiet on the budget front.
    Apparently there’s no holes and the only people whining are pollies and journos.
    I suspect there’ll be little to talk about within a week or two and the polling impact will be minimal, though Brendan could make things worse tonight with another undertaker performance.
    The opposition are down to their last cards, threatening to stand up for the downtrodden and impoverished…wait…what’s that? Oh – they’re going to stand up for the rich who just can’t do without that baby bonus or their drunk daughters.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23696829-601,00.html
    “THE Coalition has branded Wayne Swan a “wimp” on inflation and refused to rule out blocking plans to means test the baby bonus and $3 billion tax hikes for alcopops and pre-mixed drinks.”

    There’s an awfull lot of masked squealing about the fact that ALP isn’t the ideological dinosaur of the past – you know, before most of the rich businessmen supported them and deserted the Libs in droves. The best that Allbull can come up with is that his interpretation of the budget is different to the one that he thinks that Skynooz said that Wayne said about 8 weeks ago. Yep it’s about that intelligible.
    In the end, the masses got their tax cut as promised, business is happy, the libs are playing henny-penny and nothings really changed.

  24. And for light relief from the budget and disasters..

    God could have created aliens too: Vatican
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/14/2244056.htm

    gotta love some of the comments.

    ——————————————

    I was mildly surprised to see a mostly positive wrap up of the Budget in the NT News, being a Murdoch paper and generally right leaning. But, well, we like most of the country lack on Opposition party.

    No doubt the polls will continue to drift down and the Opposition will improve its standing just by being part of the debate, no matter how useless. But when they do settle Rudd support will be fairly stable. Safe pair of hands and incumbency and lack of credible/safe pair of hands Opposition.

    Maybe Turnbull has made a mistake in not challenging before the Budget. By just turning up to the show Nelson and the LNP might win back some points in the poll and thus some credibility, and then the dilemma of how to dump a person who is on the improve.

  25. marky marky

    Times move on, it is not 1970, if it was 50% of the population would be pissed off with the damage being done to the economy by the unions, the decline of union power would be starting and we would be watching intellectually challenged conservative governments making a mess of it.

  26. Swannie at the Press Club

    A less well rehersed speech compared to last night but he shined in the Q&A afterward. Confidence, knowledge, belief and a dash of humour delivered with all the right body language. In fact, an analysis of the body language in the last few days suggests that Wayne has achieve top dog status, even amongst the Cabinet, and including Rudd, which I didn’t expect.
    He won’t have convinced the Glens of the world (and really he never was going to find a place in the heart of those who like being dominated and belittled by a big fool from Victoria) but he seems to have done the job amongst his colleagues and peers, which in many ways is far more important.

  27. Mitchell interviewed Rudd on AW and was complaining about alcopops, baby bonus being a broken promise and the budget not cutting hard enough. Nothing positive. He proceded to give Turnbull a free ride. No comment about his flip flopping.
    Typical conservative commentator stuff. They really are having trouble shooting this budget down.

  28. 127
    good to see Mitchell applying that large intellect he possesses and thinking for himself…

    1. alcopops – an issue with those who don’t vote.

    2. baby bonus – an issue with those with whom the majority of Australians can’t identify with in the slightest; the relatively young and rich.

    3. not cutting hard enough – an issue with economists outside the mainstream and journalists; the interpreters of the interpreters.

    It’s hardly mainstream stuff is it?

  29. Onimod 123

    Apart from the politics, the coalition’s stance on the budget can be ridiculed economically. They say it is not tough enough on inflation yet want to vote against the major cuts (alcopops tax and baby bonus means testing). That is incoherent and will deservedly get laughed at. How would they reduce government spending – more cuts to welfare? or government hospitals? The reality is they couldn’t possibly have cut inflation at all and have met their election promises. What would have happened to inflation if Howard had won?

    This exposes that the coalition had no intention of doing anything about interest rates if it had been relected. They were just going to continue with the spending and tax cuts, mortgage holders be damned. That won’t help get the marginal seats on side again.

  30. Since early in the year, a number of commentators have stated that “the coalition does not handle being in opposition well”.

    In recent days, it is quite apparent that they don’t handle it at all, period.

    Nelson and Turnbull’s responses to the pre-budget leaks and the responses last night and so far today to Swan’s first Budget have been abysmal. And that is being kind.

    Never have I seen a political party go downhill so fast. Not even the One Nation aberration in Queensland blew apart as quick as this lot.

    It’s early days yet, but they seem to be going backwards and must be perilously close to hitting bottom soon.

  31. Question Time
    Rudd is referring to Albull as
    “the alternative leader of the opposition”
    hahaha
    There’s nothing like seeing the (neocon) misappropriation of language used against the primary abuser.

  34. I just saw it on channel 7 news here in Sydney. Sarah Murdoch is complaining that everyone should get the baby bonus. She obviously believes people who are struggling like her need the money.

    Maybe if she went out and got a real job struggling Australians, especially those who do not intend on having a kid, wouldn’t mind giving her a hand out as much.

  36. I mean, this is just too funny. Monty Python?

    “I’m not being backward in saying that I’m not a perfect individual and you know I’ve had a robust past and there may be elements of that that have proved offensive to people.”

    “I don’t shy away from that at all, but I’m not aware that I’ve caused any offence to a quokka.”

    bwahahahahaha

  38. Quokka football is the popular past time on Rottness, not that I’m saying Buswell did that, he probably just sniffed the patch where it was sitting

  39. Somebody mentioned Channel 7 News. Someone needs to remind Mark Riley – gently – that the Coalition lost the last election. Furthermore, John Howard is gone. Forever. Mark needs to deal with these matters. Or seek counselling. Soon.
    Gonna be a long thirty months, Markster. Getting past the denial stage just might help.

  40. We have become used to Costello budgets – lots of promises, pork, money for Crosby-Textor demographics that would boost votes. Then comes MYEFO, oops sorry, we did not actually spend $4 billion we announced, we will spend it on something else.

    The usual sport after a Costello budget was whats in it for me – hopefully this farce has ended for good.

  41. Still cant work out why we should be funding the private health companies with additional bonuses for nothing. Just a gift from JH. They already have a penalty mechanism for late the joiners, that ought to be the path for encouraging earlier subscriptions. I have been a member since 1976 but it was my choice.

    They would be better of improving the free services than giving money to provide it elsewhere.

  43. When was the last pension increase not from average male weekly earnings adjustments?

    At least it will now be either CPI or AMWOTE whichever is higher – a change that has been ignored by most commentators. If Howard had made this adjustment 4 years ago pensioners would be about $80 a fortnight better off.

    Seems a lump sum bribe works for most dills. 😛

  44. [Seems a lump sum bribe works for most dills.]

    Who most likely blow it on the pokies – note the large number of Pensioners at the various clubs on Pension Day 🙂

  45. Kina #141
    Howard was on the way to killing Medicare by a 1000 cuts but it looks like Kev is giving it the kiss of life.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23697007-5017018,00.html

    “Because the decision is expected to result in thousands of Australians dropping out of private health insurance it will slash the amount of money the Government spends though the 30 per cent rebate it pays for every premium.”

    “The decision to increase the Medicare surcharge threshold from $50,000 to $100,000 for singles and to $150,000 for couples will cost the Government about $600 million in forgone revenue. But it will save the Government more than $900 million over four years in terms of spending on the 30 per cent rebate, delivering the net savings.”

  46. Check out Possum’s musings today on his site, particularly the piece from Crikey. I’ve been thinking for quite some time, from an interview Rudd did with Kerry O’Brien before the election, that this was what Rudd would do in gov’t., i.e., slowly turn the country in a different direction. No big bangs with bells, whistles and fireworks. That what passes for journalism in much of the MSM haven’t noticed doesn’t surprise me. It’s actually going to be extremely amusing watching what happens, as I think the Opposition and their supporters in the MSM, flail around utterly unable to comprehend why no one other than the base line Pineapple and Chicken Party supporters, vote for them anywhere, anytime soon. Agree it’s not good for democracy for there to be ineffective, incompetent, laughable oppositions, but jeez, that’s what they are.

  47. Let us hope that such a beautiful species as the Quokka has not had to endure such a close encounter with any Liberal?????

  48. What is it with Channel Seven. In Adelaide last night they had a segment on a lad who needed an expensive medication to treat his condition. They mentioned Rudd’s (not Mr. Rudd’s or the PM ‘s) meanies not willing to come to his aid. Apparently there are only 5 people in Australia with this condition so subsidising by the Government really shouldn’t be an issue. What made my blood boil however was the appearance on the program of Christopher Pyne sticking up for the young lad. What was his Government doing for this same lad up until November last year and why didn’t the interviewer ask that of him. Yet he has the gall to accuse the Rudd Government doing nothing for the lad or at least until his condition worsens (when by Department guidelines he apparently does become eligible for a subsidy).

    Again tonight with the pensioner’s sob story (while I have empathy for their situation) why haven’t the media been pushing this issue for the past twelve years instead of waiting until a Labour government is elected? Grrrrr.

  49. Kina, seriously, the Medicare surcharge change is just the first of a number of changes that will drive a stake into the heart of the private health insurance industry. I personally was very pleased to see the first (I hope) of some serious de-funding of absolute rorts in health funding in the budget papers. There really is some serious ripping off going on in health. GPs writing so-called health care plans with the patient’s basic details, a diagnosis of “depressed”, nothing else, and claiming big bucks from Medicare for a referral. There are really competent and ethical GPs who don’t do this, of course, but currently there is no quality control in a number of critical Fed. funding supported areas.

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