Morgan: 58-42

That non-existent Morgan poll discussed in the previous post has now shown its face four days behind schedule. The phone survey of an unusually small sample of 618 respondents supports last week’s Newspoll finding that some of the gloss has come off Labor’s lead, which is at 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 58-42 on two-party preferred. This is down from 62-38 at the Morgan face-to-face poll published the previous Friday and 62.5-37.5 at the previous phone poll from mid-April, and is on both measures Labor’s weakest result since the election.

In other news, News Limited reports that Alexander Downer is “expected to quit Parliament within days”, having “delayed his departure until after Treasurer Wayne Swan tonight outlines Labor’s first Budget in 12 years, so as to avoid distracting from the Coalition’s response to it”. This of course will mean a by-election for his South Australian seat of Mayo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. marky I suspect that Iemma may be about to get a wake-up call from the unions in NSW, I am sure they are still capable of looking after themselves!

  2. I love Swan’s little laugh at Turnbull having some economic modeling done in the space of a few minutes. Turnbull is not a natural and says whatever he thinks sounds good at the time but often turns out to be nonsense….yep, he is a jumped up car salesman. Turnbull Motors

  3. Agree, Kina. Turnbull was definitely top of head response; all old currency, Kerry grinned. As Swan had the harder task, Turnbull, even as car man, lacked the suavity one would curl a lip at.

  4. how can Turnbull say the budget is inflationary when the forex markets already lowered the dollar by 0.2 cents against the USD. I mean seriouslly the markets are obviously expecting this to lower interest rates QED lower inflation. And i also agree any modelling Turnbull did on his Casio Calculator in the space of three minutes will either win him the Nobel prize in economics or prove his and the Coalition lack of economic credentials……

  5. Yep just like all the other previous privatisations done under the Hawke and Keating years one suspects, sorry but the unions will cave in and rollover and who benefits certainly not working people.
    Rich lawyers, consultants and overseas money markets and some overseas buyer.
    Yep Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank certainly care for their workers, were they not the first willing to want to introduce workchoices.

  6. Allbull is meant to be keeping his head down while hair-raising-nelson does the hard yards, whatever needs to be done, to protect he team and give them time to develop a policy platform to get back in the game with.

    It doesn’t seem like anyone has informed the team of the strategy.

    In fact, Allbull is in this over his head and is bleeding profusely, and his right arm is hanging by a thread. He’s not going to be much good in a sword fight if he loses the arm and can’t hold a weapon.

    Endorsing Swan we already have the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe.
    Allbull is going to look prey silly by the end of the week. Very silly indeed.,23599,23694786-29277,00.html

  7. [Yep just like all the other previous privatisations done under the Hawke and Keating years one suspects, sorry but the unions will cave in and rollover and who benefits certainly not working people.]

    I don’t understand how it helps working people having billions of dollars of government money tied up in coal fired power stations that will lose value as soon as carbon trading comes in.

  8. Peter AHrtcher at SMH:

    The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, talks tough. He trumpets it as a budget to “fight inflation first,” yet it is a budget that actually squibs the fight.

    How? It will tip over $15 billion into taxpayers’ incomes in 2008-09. Plus, this budget will increase overall Federal spending, after adjusting for inflation, by 1.1 per cent.

  9. Trent

    Exactly; that was my point in post 25 – Turnbulls comemnts were nonsense. You can argue that the budget cuts may not be sufficient, or ideologically targeted at the rich, but you can’t say it was both high taxing and inflationary. That is a contradiction. Taxes reduce spending and hence reduce inflationary pressure. And the markets have realised that. Also as I said, some of Turnbull’s comments were just false (calling it high spending when the rate of spending increase has been reduced to well under inflation).

    You are right the modelling comment was laughable too. Salesmen get away with making fancifull claims because people don’t bother to check them, but if Turnbull makes up stuff like that on the run as Shadow treasurer, with a press corps (and a few bludgers) recording it and checking the facts, he is going to get caught out.

  10. So when the privatised electricity owner starts putting up their prices, or when a retailer rings you whilst having dinner and when complaints increase to the electricity ombudsman regarding poor and inadeuate contract provision or lack of detail to householders such as what has been happening in Victoria ( hence this year was a record for complaints) and what about when the power suddenly goes due to problem will consumers in New South Wales know who to complain to and when they will be reconnected..
    And what of the workers, i suppose we will have casual workers or workers knocking on doors living of the sales they get from signing people on to new contracts…
    The sale is all for some proceeds for health and education which they cannot borrow for and which when the money runs out what will they do… yep cannot rely on the money received from the public ownership because we no longer own it…
    Where will Iemma and Costa and Keating be.. in the years ahead, yep living of the taxpayer with their superannuation without a care in the world…
    Whilst the New South Wales taxpayer cops it in the neck. Pathetic.

  11. Have to laugh at Downer’s timing. He could have gone months ago. Announcing it now is the worst possible timing re: the budget. How conceited of him, and what a fitting farewell

  12. If ever confirmation was needed that Cossie is outa here it was today… he showed his intention with that doorstop… I mean c’mon! I sympathize with him… If I had dealt with the pack of wild dogs that is the media for 20 odd years I would have lurved the chance to strut up and do what he did… I mean f#(kem, he’s been waiting for the chance for years

    The circular media spin thingy was brilliant ( Speers mic gag) jeez, almost reminded me of the careers ‘uproar” but when he goes Grattan about her glasses (cmon, we all think the’re to big, admit it!

    Then you just know he’s off soon and having a laugh as he does it

  13. Shows on- so the government is going use the proceeds to replace the power stations with renewables and build Solar Plants…
    Can see a private owner now complaining about competition and giving one or the other party in New South Wales a massive donation to do as they say.
    They will burn fossil fuel until it runs out simple.

  14. Can anyone give me the skinny on Peter Hartcher please?

    He seems to have arrived on the Federal political scene like a bolt out of the blue. 8 months ago i’d never heard of him and now he seems like the agenda setter within media circles.

    Is it just the way he carries himself or is he the new media player who frames the political scene for the hacks to disperse?

    Is he the new pointman for Australian political media?


  15. They will burn fossil fuel until it runs out simple

    No, it will be burnt until it’s not economically/politically viable for us to do so

    Then we will use other things… but sell the carbon fuels to those that haven’t reached that point yet

  16. Classified agree to a point but like all resounces we will may keep using it until we wake up on its environmental costs and that will be when it is to late.

  17. Never understood the point of privatising essential infrastructure like telecommunications, water and electricity.

    Politically it is risky since you have to play ball with say the Power company or have them raise rates, complain your gonna increase costs etc at around election time. They can put political pressure on you to allow them to profiteer on the public. AND, look at the battle between Telstra and Howard at election time. Howard’s Frankenstein.

    Commercial enterprises, especially where it is basically a monopoly, are necessarily driven to provide the least amount of service acceptable, at the lowest cost acceptable (lowest quality) at the highest price acceptable and, no one can do anything about it (see Petrol companies). There purpose is not to provide an essential service to the country but to make the most amount of money at the lowest cost.

    Maybe I am naive on this but I don’t think there is any additional benefit to be had in privatising these things. Yes they might be more cost efficient (sack employees; lower service quality and quantity, hold govts to ransom)….

  18. Kina that is why the government has to come along and provide billions for broadband, because Telstra cannot afford it- pathetic.
    Simple the privatisation has been a failure and competition in communcations by the previous government an absolute failure.

  19. Quick yes or no answer from Tony Jones
    Are you a simplistic fool?

    Adults have adult conversations Tony, and occasionally, some things are more complex than yes/no, black/white.

  20. Possible Marky but I doubt it. This Gov will go as far as it can and as far as the realities allow. If we go too far in the use of carbon fuels and blow it then I suggest it wont matter a hoot what we do by then…

    We may sell lots of the stuff, but we don’t affect the outcome anymore then a bee’s dick does bothering a racehorse for a night out on the town

    But I honestly, I don’t think it will come to that

  21. There’s something hilarious about Turnbull saying that this is a high taxing, high spending budget, but at the same time, voicing opposition to means testing the baby bonus.

  22. Cheers crikey whitey

    Seems to me, this guy is the new head honcho of the Political media commentators from what i’ve seen the last 6 months or so.

    ps: i bet Kirri is a fan seeing as Hartcher is a scathing critic of Kirri’s pet hate Mr Alan Greenspan lol.

  23. If you suggesting that carbon trading may make a difference i for one doubt it but we will wait and see.
    The european trading scheme worked like this- handing out carbon dioxide emission permits, free of charge, to big European companies. Thus the largest polluters got the most credits- the polluter was paid. Hence companies were making windfall profits without reducing their emissions. Thus produce a certain amount of carbon dioxide but do so within the largesse of the credits.
    The Murray is in crisis and soon maybe next year Adelaide may have some problems with its drinking water but governments i am hearing are doing very little about the problems thus like most things it will only occur when a crisis occurs.

  24. So will the Liberals seek to block in the senate means testing the baby bonus/family tax benefit part B, because it discriminates against rich people? LMFAO
    Turnball completely floundered tonight: if this was his audition for Nelson’s job, he failed miserably LOL

  25. Re Marky Marky @ #64

    You obviously don’t live in NSW.

    The National Electricity market was deregulated a few years ago. Since that time private electricity retailers have been in active in the NSW market, competing against the 3 NSW Govt owned retailers (Energy Australia, Integral Energy & Country Energy).
    We get the Govt retailers and the private retailers knocking on the door wanting to sign us up for a three year contract. The price is the same no matter which retailer is used.
    The NSW taxpayers are in a lose-lose situation. If NSW Govt keeps ownership of their Electricity retailers, than the value of the asset will continue to decrease as they lose market share. (they used to have 100% market share in NSW, but this has obviously decreased since Origin, AGL, etc started competing in NSW). If the NSW Govt sells the retailers we lose a valuable asset.

    Hope this clarifies the NSW situation for you.

  26. Hartcher does seem to be something of a leader, in the lamentable state of the media, although less than left, HarryH, but his work is thoughtful and measured.

    Whether I agree with him or not. Kirri is billi? Yes? And I accord with anyone who happens to think that Alan Greenspan had his eye on the real ball.

  27. Marky

    I agree the European carbon trading scheme as implmented is deeply flawed but that doesn’t mean carbon trading can’t work. The nordic countries had a quite effective scheme going before they were subsumed into the EU scheme. Clearly though, nobody is really prepared to implement it until their major trading partners also agree. So as long as China is exempted and the US holds out, it won’t really happen.

    I agree that water in the Murray (or lack thereof) is a serious issue, but to be fair the SA government is now proceeding with a desalination plant. I fear we could be in serious trouble before it is finished however, depending on next years rain.

  28. John Stewart, NAB CEO is in behind Swan too.
    I’ve never seen John looking so comfortable and positive, and no wonder Allie is glowing. In fact Allie has totally outclassed Tony in content tonight.

    Looks like there won’t be any pretty jobs out there for ex-Liberal treasurers, or shadow-treasurers.
    Allbull is now a career politician – get used to it.

  29. Regarding Turnbull, I just looked up his bio and sure enough, he is a lawyer and barrister, not an economist. He’s never studied it, or worked in it. So he’s not stupid but beyond the soundbite stuff he doesn’t really know economics. By contrast, Swan was a lecturer in public policy in Qld for a few years before he entered politics.

  30. Yep desalination plants always work without actually trieing to fix the Murray which is dying. And all those towns on it goodbye slowly.

    So the market is deregulated so what? Selling it means a government no longer has control over it.
    We are in massive massive debt privately in this country because governments no longer do or own anything and provide anything and one day soon we will notice the costs. Partly private debt is a reason why our interest rates are high.

    Fed up with people who no longer know the difference between government ownership and private ownership. A government can borrow at cheaper rates than a private company due to security of funds and this we should be utilising.
    But continually it is about distribution of monies from the total population to a few people.

  31. I am listening to Delroy. An enraged person is calling on the subject of the apparent failure of the Budget to deliver an increase in the pension. I have no idea if this is so or not, but. He is far more than disappointed. For singles, as much as pairs.

    Another is talking of the useless work of the Job Network. That her husband, well experienced and qualified, cannot get a job through them.

  32. Marky,

    I was neither advocating selling the Electricity retailers, or supporting a deregulated market.

    IMHO the only thing the deregulated electricity market has done is allow the companies who bought the electricity assets in Vic (& SA?) to inexpensively expand into other states.

    I would prefer it if each state Govt still owned and controlled all of their electricity assets. It would make it much easier changeover to renewable energy sources without the concern of generating profits for overseas shareholders.

  33. [I’ve never seen John looking so comfortable and positive, and no wonder Allie is glowing. In fact Allie has totally outclassed Tony in content tonight.]

    Serves him right for inviting Peter Dutton onto his show. 😀

    [Another is talking of the useless work of the Job Network. That her husband, well experienced and qualified, cannot get a job through them.]

    If her husband is well experienced and qualified, couldn’t he get a job on his own?

  34. AMP Shane Oliver
    BT Financial Group, Dr Chris Caton (I think?)
    both fans
    I think at this point Wayne is entitled to crack open the champagne.
    He’s managed to rip the economic mantra of the libs to shreds.
    About bloody time.

  35. hello Crikey
    I reckon the Libs would have had their stooges “callers to talkback radio” all primed and supplied with written scripts of what to say criticising the budget.
    People pretending to be pensioners, carers, small business etc all the usual suspects.

  36. Apparently he has tried, ShowsOn. But no good. Unsurprising, given the attitude towards the older worker, not least the same attitude of the Job Network people.

    Maybe we could learn something from Therese Rein, about this problem. If she knows.

    I listened to Bush Telegraph earlier, for example. A community in Victoria took upon itself to recruit and train pretty well local people in nursing skills. Now, it did not sound exactly like nursing, more aged care, but it works. It is localised, paid on the job, gets results, did not require that the trainees leave their area.

    The Job Network would not have the imagination to do what this community has achieved.

  37. Shows on- where i work their are many people who have qualifications and are working in positions inferior to their talents. It is the new reality an economy which is provding unskilled low paid work and the rich meanwhile are getting richer and our governments are continually wishing to privatise things or cut the public service.
    Yep both parties to me do not care, big business and the media run this country.

    Barry sorry but i totally agree with you renewables and power could be better managed in government ownership, but the silly dills are only listening to rich lobbyists wanting a quick buck.

  38. Hi there Vera

    No doubt, there are the stooges. Those I mentioned were only those heard. I had only just switched on to radio, wanting to know the talkback response.

    But maybe that caller was correct. About the pension. And if that is the case, it is and will be seriously disappointing to those who depend upon it.

  39. Another Lib bites the dust in Vic. (Hi Crikey. How’s it going?)

    Will the last one left please put out the lights!

    {ANOTHER email scandal has emerged within the ranks of the Victorian Liberal Party, plunging Ted Baillieu’s leadership into further turmoil.

    Former federal parliamentary staffer Luke Dixon today quit as a Liberal Party branch member after an email criticising Mr Baillieu was made public.},21985,23693382-5005961,00.html

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