1,359 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus four days”

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  1. Just scolled back & noticed
    “Always best to bear in mind that Obi’s enemies are playing for keeps”
    the last 4 lines needed another two , perhaps off the cuff for the mood.

    “turned my collar to the cold and damp
    When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
    That split the night
    And touched the sound of silence”

    “the twinking ron ray it t’was
    those closest are all that truely matter”

  2. Quick question – are there any Australian bookies that are offering odds on who wins the NC primary?

    I’m thinking of having a punt on HRC winning in NC…

  3. Kevin Rennie
    #42
    Brilliant. Yes the numbers kevin indicate the Obama just may snatch the Nominee , but the numbers & the Policys against McCain strongly favour Hillary.
    The true story of Howard Dean DNC (Obama’s factional ally & mate) stitiching up Hillary (their factional enemy) over Florida & Michigan may blow up Obama

    Ferny #47
    “When it comes to US politics, I haven’t seen anyone yet who isn’t right of centre on most economic and social issues – including Obama”

    Ferny , read my #37 of 4 Hillary policys and advise me by email via William if any of them are ‘right of centre’. Bill O’Reillly called them “socialist’

    Pancho
    #46
    Dailykos is a biased pro Obama rag Believe it a thirtyeight another one if you wantbut then you criticise (rightly) Fox News for being pro ‘right’.Get some independent views (and not from pro Hillary ones either)

  4. Jen @ 45

    It’s from an absolutely hilarious anti-Clinton rant I linked yesterday. Here it is again.

    Fair and balanced commentary from the Smirking Chimp. Hillary’s refusal to concede despite having lost should not be tolerated by the Democrat Party. Why is it being tolerated?

    Because
    (1) Hillary is a female
    (2) People feel sorry for her because her husband has a “zipper problem”
    (3) Starry eyed Democrats cling to the myth that Bill actually did something in his eight years

    http://www.smirkingchimp.com/print/14249

  5. Ron, I’m not sure why I need to send you an email via William. Have our opinions suddenly become clandestine?

    Nonetheless, that’s my point (though you missed it). ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ have become redundant as those in the traditional ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ Parties adopt policies that would have made their forebears cringe. Overall, politicians from the old ‘Left’ parties have lurched to the Right. Blair’s famous line that ‘we’re all Thatcherites now’ could as easily apply to the ALP and even moreso the US Democrats. Howard adopted (albeit perhaps through clenched teeth) Medicare. That didn’t make him a leftie. Likewise, a few social policy crumbs from Hillary – or Obama – doesn’t make them a socialist, despite what O’Reilly says. And really, Ron – do you seriously want to use O’Reilly as your authority on what comprises a socialist????

  6. #44 – Diog – [Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool] – i think you are a little hard on the old gal here. At least, with her, what you see is what you get. There is an honesty in her dishonesty.

    My main beef with Obama has always been that he is not what he seems. You dont have to take my words for it. Just take the words of the person who probably understands him the most, this includes his wife, his Pastor of 20 years. Someone who has given him his identity, who has provided him with the belonging and his political platform. It was his Pastor who said: “he is just another politician, who would say anything and do anything to get elected”, including betraying his Pastor.

    He said it twice, not once, first at PBS interview and then at the NPC Speech. You have to ask yourself, first why did he say this and second why say it twice. If he really thinks Obama is good for America and good the race relationships, he would have, like i said before, taken a long holiday in Patagonia and plays with the Penguins. Now Obama has “rejected” him twice, but each time to save his political skin. Please note Obama has not said he “DISOWN” him.

    A large part of the Black community does support the Pastor, so I would suggest Obama would not dare to go beyond just “rejecting” his Pastor or wimpy “I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Reverend Wright has changed as a consequence of this”. He cannot disown him because they are already joined at the hip.

  7. 40
    William Bowe

    Thank Andrew Bolt? Oh yes, of course, for standing up to the world wide conspiracy of climate scientists, international businesses, politicians and thinking people everywhere who peddle this nonsense about carbon dioxide being a wee problem.

    What would we do without his lone voice of reason? Eh?

    (And for being the biggest loudmouth on Insiders who continually interrupts the other speakers so you cannot actually the hear the usually interesting things they have to say!)

    Yep, he’s really unique, and I thank him for remaining so.

  8. 42
    Kevin Rennie

    I said it the other day, and Stephen Long said the same thing on Lateline last night:

    The US is, right now, in recession.

    The 0.6% “growth” was rising inventory levels (yep, they count that on the plus side in the US assesment of GDP).

    That’s stuff being stacked in warehouses which cannot be sold to a consumer that has just stopped ‘discretionary’ spending, and is instead just trying to pay the bills and feed the kids.

    This statistical blip may look good to the uninitiated looking at the radar screen of the MSM’s ‘economic press’, but anyone who watches more closely, knows what’s coming.(Next quarter the warehouses are still full but have NOT re-ordered. It’s called ‘inevitable’).

    Housing is falling into a bottomless pit, wages have shrunk over the last eight years, inflation is up, credit markets are cactus, and the Federal reserve bank of the mighty US of A is actually in the process of socialising the country’s mortgage debt. (Eeeeeek, the hero of ‘free enterprise’ is looking more like the Soviet Union everyday! LOL)

    You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.

  9. Ferny- re Left and right. It’s all relative. I know that the “left” has become more and more conservative here and in the US (that’s why we have the Greens here), but for want of a better term (happy to use one if you have it), there is a chasm of difference between the values underpinning Democrats and Republicans in terms of social policy and attitudes to war etc. Hillary appears to me to be closer to the Repugs than obama on miltary and national security. And that’s enoughfor me to back him. Enough murdering of civilians to ‘liberate’ them already.

  10. Jen. I agree. My comments re Obama were in response to those from the Conservative side who pin him as ‘the most liberal’ (as if that’s a swear word – it used to be regarded as a foundation of western democracy) candidate in history.

    My support of Obama has as much to do with my assessment of his character, and the fact that the Establishment doesn’t own his nether regions.

    Glad to see you didn’t miss the opportunity to plug the Greens. Would their policy platform be different if they were a real chance of winning Government?

  11. Jen again,
    I forgot to mention that I have no better descriptor than left and right. I have no beef with their use per se. It’s their blaise application to current politicians that I find trite. Most pollies hold to an eclectic mix of what could be termed ‘left’ and ‘right’ policies. Very few (I can’t think of any) are philosophically committed to the Left or Right. Philosophical conviction has given way to pragmatism.

  12. 56 Finns

    I agree with every word you say in that post.

    And I don’t fully agree with the quote “Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool” as lots of people who believe in the Clinton’s are not foolish. But I do think they care not a whit for anyone but themselves. Still, I’m from the Dawkin’s school of ethics and I don’t believe anyone is altruistic, including Obi, although some people come closer than others.

  13. There is still a fight in the old gal yet. If Obama loses North Carolina. It will confirm he is not electable in Nov and maybe, just maybe, Blacks are also beginning to doubt him. Watch his support crumbles and it will be Sweet Carolina indeed.

    May 3, 2008
    Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race
    By JEFF ZELENY and JODI KANTOR

    RALEIGH, N.C. —

    Not long ago, Mr. Obama was perceived to hold such an advantage that some Democrats here wondered whether Mrs. Clinton would bother to compete vigorously. But the candidates intensified their efforts in the final weekend — both appeared here on Friday evening — and Mr. Obama was eyeing a return on the eve of the election.

    “This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer,” Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Kinston. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”

    “If she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination, and if she gets the nomination, she will be president of the United States,” Gov. Michael F. Easley, a Clinton supporter, said at a rally with Mrs. Clinton on Friday in Hendersonville.

  14. Finns

    I’m predicting she wins Indiana by more than Obi wins NC, but it still won’t be enough as NC is twice as big as Indiana.

  15. I noticed that Hillary’s lead in Indiana has moved up to 6.2 on RCP averages. Bearing in mind that ‘Undecideds’ have been breaking significantly for Clinton, this is shaping up as a serious thumping on current trends. There is, however, still 4 days to go.

    The NC poll trends are showing a minor recovery over the last few days. It will be interesting to see if Obama can get his lead back into double digits by Tuesday, or will the Clinton Undecideds bring him undone again. Anything under a double digit win in NC will maintain the psychological advantage to Hillary.

  16. #65 – Diog – i wouldn’t take the solid black (80%+) support for granted now, after Philly Mark 2. It could very well unravel right before our eyes at NC.

    May 02, 2008
    Renewed Wright Imbroglio Exposes Fissures Among Black Voters
    By Jonathan Tilove

    But his repudiation this week of his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., may unleash a more open debate in the black community, where even some who back Obama worry that he is vague or evasive in his approach to race matters………………… To many, Gillespie among them, Obama’s problem is that he has never made explicit what, beyond symbolism, his election would do for black America. Now, he is rejecting Wright’s racial agenda without having clearly articulated his own…….. Indeed, “There’s a lot of winking going on in the Obama campaign,” said Glenn Loury, a Brown University economist who writes frequently about race.

    Loury supports Clinton because, he said, Obama’s candidacy “is a place where the racial contract is being negotiated and renegotiated,” and he simply doesn’t want to entrust Obama with that power.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/renewed_wright_imbroglio_expos.html

  17. Finns @ 68

    Agree Wright will drop his black support. They won’t shift to Hillary, they just won’t turn out in the same numbers. He had to cut Wright lose more for the general election and to improve his “electability”.

    Ferny @ 67
    NC Obi by 6%
    Indiana Hill by 8%

    Obi gains 1 PD net

  18. It was interesting to see Shields and Brooks on Newshour tonight. Brooks was more than confident that Obama would take the nomination, desptie his bad week, and even thought his ‘cool’ character was attractive in a President. Both of them dismissed the ‘gas tax’ nonsense, and Brooks was particularily scathing about McCain trucking (pun!) with this liberal crappola. Hillary was lumped with McCain, but otherwise ignored. Both talked extensively about Obama.

    You can feel the closeness of the race, but the outcome is still not in question. Hillary can only win this by political kneecapping and coersion. She’s past the numbers, and the Wright thing will not do it for her.

    (Brooks was good on this: Wright was NOT a problem for Obama until he decided to go to the press and posture because his life’s message was being dissed. Obama cut him free, as he had to, but showed himself to be vastly different to Wright, a post-partisan player, a uniter)

    Shields was in agreement, Wright just showed what was the old school, what Obama is not.

    Shields wanted Obama to kick Hillary and McCain much harder over their stoopid gas tax pandering.

    When the guy on the right and the guy on the left are in such agreement, there’s not a lot of room for HRC.

    (Apologies to Ferny regarding the loose terminology, it’s so gauche, I know, and just not Wright!)

  19. This is called Obama’s chickens coming home to roost. He tried to run as the non-black black. That is, he is technically black, so that elite white liberals could make themselves feel good by voting for him (which is how he won all those caucuses). But since he’s not really black at all in a cultural or political sense (he’s an elite white liberal whose father was from Africa), he brought with him none of the culture of permanent black grievance which previous black candidates like Jackson and Sharpton had. Or so he thought. But to get his start in Chicago black politics ten years ago, he had to “pass for black” by paying lip-service to the culture of permanent black grievance, in part by sitting through Rev Wright’s black supremicist sermons. Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.

    By the way, here is the truth about the Tuskegee experiments, which Wright used as his justification for the allegation that the US created the AIDS virus as an attack on blacks:

    “In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years. Prior to the availability of penicillin in the 1940s and 1950s, the researchers couldn’t have treated the men even if they wanted to. Even after standardized penicillin treatments were available, it wasn’t clear that the patients could have been helped. Among scholars who’ve studied Tuskegee, there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment. But no one disputes that Tuskegee had nothing whatsoever to do with genocide or even a desire to spread the disease among the black population.”

  20. I think that second-last sentence should read “there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment.”

  21. And more: “The Tuskegee study emerged out of a liberal progressive public health movement concerned about the health and well-being of the African-American population,” writes University of Chicago professor Richard Schweder. He adds: “The study was done with the full knowledge, endorsement and participation of African-American medical professionals, hospitals and research institutes.”

  22. Herr Doktor, we thank you for setting us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ straight on the syphillitic genocide stuff. Classic.

    How many blacks are imprisoned in the US? How many die under the age of 5? How many in the top decile of income?
    How many in the bottom?

    Herr Doktor, would you allow them to vote? I mean, are they really ‘intelligent’ like us white folks?

    And lastly Herr Doktor, when will Hillary win the nomination? You you still certain it’s Feb 5th?

    And if a black man can’t defeat a white cadaver in a general election, do you think dumbocracy has any future?

  23. Maybe the r-word is blocked by German keyboards out of uber-PC, which this country has a bad case of. Anyway I’m off to see the Nuremberg trials courtroom now. More at 11, as they say on CNN.

  24. Adam
    Agree re syphilis.
    Tertiary syphilis is basically no longer contagious. And it barely responds to penicillin as the damage has already been done. The world’s greatest philosopher ever Nietzsche died of tertiary syphilis, many years after his one and only sexual experience, which happened to be with a sex worker.

    Perhaps the Austrians are blocking that word. They’re still a bit sensitive about that kind of stuff after a bad experience.

  25. Adam, i told them so that: “Obama can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Obama can not fool all of the people all of the time”.

    Yes, Obama’s Ayam Jakarta sudah pulang rumah (This one is for the man from Kirribilli)

  26. Adam, your intepretation of ‘report’ is almost as wide as Fox’s:

    “Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.”

    It sounds more like prognostication from on high, (kinda like what we all do around here! LOL) to me.

    But let it pass, your opinion has been noted.

    Meanwhile, those Supers keep cross dressing to hide their homophobia!

  27. KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.

  28. KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.

  29. 69 Diog

    Yep I feel much the same re Tuesday. I’m hoping Obama can pick up a few percent in NC and get it back to double digits. Can’t see things changing much in Indiana though. Still, as you say, the delegate count remains virtually static.

    It’s the psychology that changes, and the impact of psychology on SDs is anyone’s guess.

  30. Perhaps William,
    Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
    Or it could have been casino.

  31. Perhaps William,
    Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
    Or it could have been cas*no.
    Or vagina – but I imagine that’s unlikely.

  32. No exit polls from Guam!! What is the state of democracy in that principality or whatever it is. They even spelt Hillary’s name incorrectly on the ballot paper as Hilary.

    They get eight half votes for PDs and five SDs, so it’s quite conceivable that there will be a greater delegate shift from Guam than from the NC/Indiana primaries which look like a draw to me.

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