North Carolina and Indiana minus one week

Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.

* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

822 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus one week”

Comments Page 2 of 17
1 2 3 17
  1. And Ron has now become an oracle:

    “[you] claim the question is off track. Well it was not , but your answer would have been.”

    Or does it mean your question was a set-up Ron?

  2. Again Ron (@22), what have either the ALP or the Greens got to do with U.S. politics? And who cares if someone is a member of one or the other of them? What bearing does that have on anything – or more to the point, Hillary’s bellicosity? You seem to be seeking another divide to place someone away from you so as not to need to intellectually interrogate what is presented.

  3. 46- About the Nuking of Japan, four more weeks of fire bombing would have killed just as many Japanese as the two nukes. Wars are a nasty business at the best of times….

  4. No Ferny , it means the Obamabots answers are always off track when you are put under pressure like Obama reacts except he sweated , fumbled , stuttered and avoidednswering the ABC TV moderator questions but then we know he has no ‘ticker’ for the job

  5. Pancho “intellectually interrogate” , do you know what it means. Avoiding debate here may be OK for you to get away with but Obama won’t be able to against McCain , and HE is going to get asked the Hillary question also.
    But his answer I suspect will be fatal to his whole bid

  6. 22
    jaundiced view

    Don’t you know about SANE? Socialists Alliance for Nuclear Extermination?

    They’re a really popular leftist movement for advancing human life through nuclear annihilation.

    It’s equitable: everyone gets fried
    It’s green: it will really reduce CO2 emissions
    It’s easy: Just ask Hillary

    And in fact, it’s just plain old SANE!

  7. Wanna bet Ron? 🙂 Put something on the table for the primaries, then a double or nothing for Obama to beat McCain. I’ll take both.

  8. Ron, your posts are invariably all over the place, lack reason, are full of red herrings and odd comparisons (we’ve been shown Vietnamese helicopters and Hiroshima nukes today). Now we have prognostications (your answer would have been wrong) and pontifications (you are not of the Labor Party).

    And all this in a blog on US elections.

    Who’s off track here?

  9. [Noocat – while I think she’s out, the win in PA has definately bolstered Hillary.]

    Only in a psychological sense. Unless she has MEGA wins in the remaining states, which polls are in no way predicting, Hillary has no hope.

    Of course, she has every right to continue up to the convention. Even after a majority of superdelegates pledge their vote for Obama, Hillary might stick it out, hoping to somehow change their minds. But if it were any candidate other than Hillary Clinton, either the party would have pushed them out by now or the candidate themselves would have seen the writing on the wall and politely exited.

  10. Completely agree Noocat. I just think her turfing has to be carefully managed, and hopefully – for the sake of the party – the Indiana result will help.

  11. KR at 30 why are you bothering with all your fancy graphs and statistics. The reality is that either (a) Hillary is currently winning or (b) She will win when the SDs flock toward her.

    I share Noocat’s at 13 concerns. I’m scared Hillary will go to the convention no matter what. What a disaster this would be. Doesnt she want a shot at 2016???

  12. B.S. Fairman #54

    46- About the Nuking of Japan, four more weeks of fire bombing would have killed just as many Japanese as the two nukes. Wars are a nasty business at the best of times.

    I entirely agree. Whether the Japanese would have then surrended is difficult to know. Yes they are more ‘nasty’ on the ground compared to what the films show. But the options against an aggressor often are limited to the country that was attacked. today with long range missiles and nukes and WMD’s the decision making is even more difficult

  13. [Doesnt she want a shot at 2016???]

    Andrew, I think the concern is that she might be too old by then, but then again, McCain is hardly a spring chicken.

  14. It is great that Ron and Finns are about because we have to reveal our deep and meaningful existence. (before it is too late).

    We are all members of the Neon Cobbers of Outrageous Enligtenment. (NeonCobs for short).

    Our aim is to be a beacon of light amidst a sea of swilly Obama supporters. We are a lighthouse to guide the woried to a palace of nirvanic ecstasy.

    NeonCobs rule the world. Get used to it.

  15. [I just think her turfing has to be carefully managed, and hopefully – for the sake of the party – the Indiana result will help.]

    Yep, agreed. A clean, dignified exit can only help Obama in the long run, because anything bloody will only further divide the party. By the way, when the dust settles, I think Obama will be best able to unite the party than if Hillary had won, especially after her comments on Iran, playing the race card, etc.

  16. […a lighthouse to guide the woried to a palace of nirvanic ecstasy.]

    So that is what Hillary is offering? I must have got confused somewhere between all that fear at 3am and Iran.

  17. Noocat

    Yes she has every right to continue to the election. she is the best candidate on electability grounds and she knows it. do not be fooled by Kirri’s foray into stats & electoral Staes parameters , he is learning and has used sites that have various colours of gradings and then moved those coloured monikers around like a “draughtboard boy”. A teenager can do that with 10 minutes training on draughts.

    still reeling from your KO over n word at #1092 or was it over Chelsea Clinton
    and an astute lawyer would have been much better with Obama’s flaws

  18. I’ll say again I think Obama needs John Edwards as a running mate!
    Obama/Edwards would grind McCain into the dust and destroy the Republican Party for a generation.

  19. and GG

    I’m also ESJ and Glen

    Pancho has found his ‘context’ argument on Obama’s dream message exposed as zero and shown as just another Pollie who lies

  20. No Ron, not lost a thing, and I certainly haven’t ‘found’ anything in what you’ve written today.

    I do get that you think Hillary will win the primaries and general though. What are you willing to bet?

    ps. An avid Hills fan using ‘lier!’ as an attack! That’s great!

  21. Yes Ron, I’m the racist. That’s why I’m backing the black guy. You really need to read context and learn how to mount an argument if you want to play in the deep end Ronnie.

    As for Obama’s flaws: I’ve pointed out a few in here. Everything is comparative Ron.

  22. It is imperative, absolutely imperative that Clinton be seen to drop out as a response to defeat, and not due to pressure from outside sources. Indiana is quite simply the best chance to Democrats have of being in a dominant position for the November election

  23. Noocat

    Facts are not the forte of Obamabots but coloured draughts apparently are
    but even the most basic understanding of them is beyond , which was evident in the ‘analytical’ post


    you lost the argument and credibility because foreign policy seems alittle hard or precious for Obama and obviously for his supporters. As for betting , i’d normally take your money but then where it it come from

  24. Ron at 37

    You asked me in #1179 last night to answer 8 questions about the Iran/nukes issue. Subsequently you again asked me to answer them. I have prepared answers to your questions with a preface if you still wish a reply ?

    On the advice on fellow contributors and having reviewed you comments from #37 through to #73 I am obliged to decline the invitation.

  25. Got a new name for the Obama supporters here: Obamanoids. Please the date of publication March 5, 2007. So you cannot accused of the author he is jumping on the band wagon. And he is black.

    [he has been pretty noncommittal on many issues] – again, who is Obama?

    [Obamination 2: Wrath of the Obamanoids – Politics Erik Rush – March 5, 2007.

    I can tell you however, why I am now experiencing the Wrath of the Obamanoids (a race that lives on a planet in the same star system as the Pelosians, themselves a rather repugnant lot).

    Barack Obama, who is undeniably bright, savvy, articulate (don’t dare start) and handsome, has been handled absolutely brilliantly by his advisors and staff. Although (as the press on both sides have pointed out) he has been pretty noncommittal on many issues, he’s doing what any smart candidate in his position would do right now: Telling people what they want to hear. Consequently, between his carefully-crafted image, charisma, and the shameless adoration of the mainstream press, he is viewed by many as was Bobby Kennedy in the Summer of 1968. He’s the man. He’s going to fix things.

    And because he is black, this image has become sacrosanct. Allow me to explain: Many Americans, black and otherwise, are still suffering from the George Jefferson Syndrome. The character of George Jefferson (from leftist Norman Lear’s ‘Seventies sitcom All in the Family) was every bit the bigot as Archie Bunker – but it was OK because he was black, and blacks had been oppressed.]

  26. Ron,
    The “clear alternative” to nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki was:
    1: Just nuking Hiroshima.
    2. Dropping a nuke on the top of Mt Fuji (worth a try surely?)
    But the real reason why it was dropped had nothing to do with concern for the lives of GIs. The Russians had entered the war and were poised to grab at least the northern half of Japan and all of Korea. It’s always cold hard calculation and geopolitics that leads the likes of Truman (a former card carrying member of the KKK that I’ve read is being proposed as model of what a Democrat should be) to commit mass murder.

  27. I’ll take that as a sidestep Ron. 🙂

    [I’ll whisper you this bit so as not to embarrass you too much – a hypothetical about nukes in Perth isn’t really a foreign policy discussion]

    You can check out Obama’s thoughts on foreign policy here: or have a look at this: for some ideas on what the advice he is given might look like.

  28. Ferny

    Everything is comparative Ron. not for you lot who distort hillarys comments and then gallingly claimed my concerns about the Pastor were a ONE day wonder and a non issue.

    You repeated the process over 7ips-Gate (bitter) were a non issue.

    The fact that were not and still are a major issue shows either lacking of political nous issues or blinded view bias or both

    #78 Kirri no draughs , you’re not up to checkers

    #79 Catrina , welcome to Obamabotic paradise

    or Obamanoids (Finns/others patent waiting

  29. #79 – [On the advice on fellow contributors] – So it is not just the PB Obama Mutual Admiration Society, it’s been extended to Obama Mutual Approval Society. Cant you Obamabots think for yourself. Oop, soooorry you are “bot” after all.

  30. Finns, you’re onto a huge story here! As the writer proudly notes, he’s gone mainstream!

    ‘As a result of the column, the issue has “grown legs”, as they say, in several areas. Last week, it resulted in my being invited on several talk radio programs to discuss my views and an appearance on Fox News’ Hannity & Colmes on February 28.

    As Sean Hannity and many people who investigated Trinity United and subsequently wrote to me since February 20 pointed out, their creed and some of their Reverend Jeremiah Wright’s writings smack far more of a black nationalist cult than a Christian Church.’

  31. The Finnigans at 84
    I’m perfectly capable of thinking for myself thank you very much. I’m also capable of reading and recognizing content of value as opposed to divisive trash, mud-slinging, and childish attempts at provocation. However – if you wish to brand me amongst those with a favourable opinion of the Obama candidate – please feel free.

  32. 84
    The Finnigans

    nah, she said she actually read Ron’s post and made a decision based on them.

    That was too hard for you understand, Finn?

  33. #85 Amigo, as usual, you are missing the point again. Obama’s association with Pastor Wright and his credential were questioned by his fellow black here before the “white” MSM picked it up.

  34. ‘his fellow black’?

    Old folks and trying to get their head around race relations is funny! Come on, you had the 60s Finns, let it go.

  35. “Does this mean I’ve actually broken thought the glass ceiling?”

    Catrina, Emma Peel didn’t have one either!

  36. #91, – [Old folks and trying to get their head around race relations is funny!} – oh yes, very funny. like the Black and White Minstrel singing a black song written by a white man:

    Old Folks at Home

    Way down upond de Swanee ribber,
    Far, far away,
    Dere’s wha my heart is turning ebber,
    Dere’s wha de old folks stay.
    All up and down de whole creation,
    Sadly I roam,
    Still longing for de old plantation,
    And for de old folks at home.

    All de world am sad and dreary,
    Ebry where I roam,
    Oh! darkeys how my heart grows weary,
    Far from de old folks at home.

  37. #93 – [Does this mean I’ve actually broken thought the glass ceiling?] – u mean “falling” through the glass ceiling, not too sure about your “thought” though.

  38. He got blown, and they got blown away:

    In the words of Don Hewitt, the former “60 Minutes” producer and an outspoken source here, Ms. Lewinsky “did more to change the world than Cleopatra.” And had President Clinton not jeopardized his own position and his party’s chances in the 2000 presidential election so recklessly, “there’s not one kid who has died in Iraq who wouldn’t be alive today.”


    So it appears that not only words have consequences.

    What an elliptical connection, but one that surely exposes the often tawdry connection between human failings and history.

  39. FINNS
    The PB Obama Mutual Admiration Society AND Obama Mutual Approval Society.

    Now because there is anelitist base class involved surely ‘honours’ and the like should be awarded , I mean Kirri has indicated an affinity for ‘mirrors’

    Perhaps when there is a mutual admiration seesion, the mirrors just keep rebounding the mutual admiration back & forth around him , like a continuous mirrored dream , perhaps thats how Obama got the dream of the old style but recycled old style but interchangeable old/new style of poliitcs from

  40. The Finnigans at 96
    Thanks for spotting that – but you know, the upside of all my mistakes is than nobody is going to accuse me of being elitist (well, maybe not, this is PB land after all).

  41. Finns @ 80

    “Obamanoids” from March 2007….lol…slaps knee at the hilarity.

    Just what other words are you thumping into google?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 17
1 2 3 17