A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most very recent poll from SurveyUSA puts it at 56-38 (UPDATE: Whoops, that’s not the most recent poll after all. There have been quite a few others since that have been around the RCP average). Statistical anomaly, or Obama’s elitist chickens coming home to roost? I report – you decide.
JV,
O’Rourke has made a career out of being a “celebrity” Libertarian. Basically, he seems to be the intellectualisation of Corey Worthington style behaviour. I don’t agree with much he writes but his writing style is very tabloid and his wit his rapier like.
Some hard facts: Clinton needs record margins AND a record turnout to beat Obama:
“Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow — a landslide few experts expect — she would still have a hard time catching him.
Clinton needs “blowout numbers,” says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn’t affiliated with either campaign. “The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.”
…
More than just big margins, Clinton would need record voter turnout too. In Pennsylvania, she would need a turnout of 2 million, about half the state’s registered Democrats; in the 2004 primary, about 800,000 voted. She would also need turnout to almost double in other states where she leads, and reach some 1 million in Puerto Rico, which is about how many Democratic- leaning voters went to the polls in a 2004 gubernatorial election. The territory, known for its high turnout, didn’t have a presidential primary that year.
In Pennsylvania — where a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll gave her just a five-point margin last week — Clinton would need to win a strong majority of the state’s suburban voters, about half of male voters, three-quarters of the rural vote and probably 70 percent of white voters, says Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown. She would also have to erode Obama’s strength among black voters and college students.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a2IYkr2D8ZGk&refer=politics
Al #1429
False. You can find no quote of me flattering. But I did flatter PB & William and the ‘Age’. And yes i did blog last year in US and yes obamabot was used there (incidently with 2 connotations) but who was the creator Al , well one thing is for sure you definitely do not know & you know, whereas I have an inkling
Ron, it is a fundamental misunderstanding of the U.S. voting system to represent the signing up of voters as ‘grubby vote fixing switching’. This is what the entire system is premised on – locating and engaging those who might vote but are otherwise not required. The Democrats have broken records all across the country this year with numbers of registrations, and only the most cynical of Democrats could see this as anything but magnificent for the party’s chances come November (not to mention those interested in democratic engagement). While Obama has the superior ground machine, about 40% of all new Dems intend to vote for Hillary, and her campaign went after these people as aggressively as Obama’s did before the rolls closed.
Turning Worm # 1433
I never accused the ‘age’ of ripping off ideas. Thats false. What I said is they are astute & their use of “Obamabot” was astute. Now we have the ‘Age’ distributing to 600,000 households saying ‘Obamabot’.
I’m waiting to see IF any other blogger here supports you Turning in your #1403
calling the ‘Age I quote you “the ‘Age’ is a “Liberal rag” vs. my reply #1428
Lets see how many Obama supporters support Turning Worm’s ‘Age’ assessment
??
A sleeper issue that could propel Hillary’s win in Penn to 10+. Anyway what is he going to do with all his money? Another example of Obama’s double standard.
Barack Obama may lose support in Philadelphia over ‘street money’ – Fourteen months into a campaign that has the feel of a movement, Sen. Barack Obama has collided with the gritty political traditions of Philadelphia, where ward bosses love their candidates, but also expect them to pay up. The dispute centers on the dispensing of “street money,” a long-standing Philadelphia ritual in which candidates deliver cash to the city’s Democratic operatives in return for getting out the vote.
A neutral observer, state Rep. Dwight Evans, whose district is in northwest Philadelphia, said there might be a racial subtext to the dispute. Ward leaders, he said, see Obama airing millions of dollars worth of television ads in the city — money that benefits largely white station owners, feeding resentment. People wonder why Obama isn’t sharing the largesse with the largely African American field workers trying to get him elected, Evans said.
“They view it that the white people are getting all the money for TV,” said Evans, an African American and former ward leader. “And they’re the ones who are the foot soldiers on the street. They’re predominantly African Americans, and they’re not the ones who are getting that TV money.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-streetmoney11apr11,0,6553901.story
An interesting story on the deomgraphic differences in the Democrat campaign.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/us/politics/22age.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
No Ron, you said this @ 1399:
“Obviously they are reading PB by their extraction of the correct term
‘Obamabots’ and their assessment it is accurate. !”
Are you now denying that you are the source of that phrase?
A reminder that the Great Southern Capitulation Contest participants’ selections start coming into play tomorrow (all times local US times). There could be a few knocked out in the next couple of days. 6 bottles in the pool.
Selected timing of one of the Dem candidates dropping out, or being dropped:
JV – 23 April @ 1000
Jen – 24 April @ 1000
Dyno – 24 April @ 1400
EC – 25 April @ 0900
HarryH- 7 May @ 1200
Pancho – 8 May @ 1200
Ferny – 3 June @ 2145
Asanque- 10 June @ 1400.
Ron, you wrote:
From this I picked up that you were implying that The Age was reading your posts and had used the term Obamabot which you claim to have coined. The article in question in the Age was an Opinion piece written by Guy Rundle who normally writes for Crikey, and is currently covering the US Presidential election for them. I appreciate his articles because they seem to be well written, and he is freely open about his biases. The term Obamabot has been widely used all over the US media and I would think it significantly more likely that this is where Rundle has picked it up from.
Hell, even Urban Dictionary has an entry for it:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Obamabot
Pancho has a strong point too. The registering of voters affiliations is a completely different system to the one we have in Australia with regards to party membership. Comparing it to the Australian process of branch stacking is a big stretch. I would have thought it would be very hard to find any pieces denigrating the campaign being able to get voters to switch affiliations; particularly as these affiliations are important for all elections, not just the Presidential one.
wonder when Hillary’s camp are going to put out a brochure from a bogus fundamentalist Islamic organisation saying that Obama is a supporter?
I’d hate to think that we outdid the US on dirty politicing down under.
Maybe one of you rabid supporters could pass on the tip.
Ferny #1442
“Which one has shown more commitment to the low-paid and unemployed?”
your answer Obama
Ron says
Unlike the elitists who look down on the ‘white’ working class with a superior lofty view of them , the ‘white’ working class are astute enough to pick that Obama is snouted like many of his supporters & Obama cynically is chasing their vote without empathy policys to address their hardship. Whereas with Hillary they know she means to assist them and will.
Undeniable proof to the elitist view based :
of what the ‘white’ working class think of Obama. In every Primary todate the ‘white’ working class boc have repudiated Obama and given Hillary over 75% of their vote. But then facts are not what an ‘elitist’ ignores when they do not suit their shallow argument
Finns,
I remember reading an article somewhere that said that the Clinton campaign also was not going to be paying “street money”.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20080415_Word_on_the_street__No_election__.html
I have seen some conflicting stories though, that seem to indicate she may be spending some money. Who knows?
#1461 – jen, you can safely leave that to the Indonesians. They are already claiming Obama as “their president”.
Don’t think you can hold the candidate responsible for who supports you. Look at this site.
Anyone interested in looking at short summaries of the two candidates’ actions and policies on employment (and all issues for that matter), rather then grappling with the long prose versions, this On The Issues site seems good. If you can make out much difference or any greater commitment of one over the other you’re doing better than me:
http://ontheissues.org/Senate/Barack_Obama.htm#Jobs
http://ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm#Jobs
Jen,
No brochure but the snippet of Osama Bin Laden in Hillary’s latest ad might feed your paranoia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azVAkWfJPZ4
Thanks Grinch-
you must be proud of your girl. She just keeps going lower and lower.
More grim news for HRC. There’s consistency in the PA polls lately:
Jen,
You’ve obviously vacated the kitchen eh?
What are all these accusations of Obama supporters ‘hating’ Hillary? How can you hate someone you don’t even know?
Speaking for myself I don’t hate her. There are many things I admire about her. ! might even enjoy her company. She’s educated, articulate and shares many common interests with me (like politics for instance!). But if given the chance over coffee – or more likely a good bottle of red – I’d tell her the importance of character, integrity and openness in leadership. I’d tell her that you really need to model the values you espouse if you want to be a leader people will follow. I’d tell her that the politics financed by big business and lobbyists has to go and governments need to rediscover what it means to be of the people, by the people and for the people. I’d tell her that our democracy is at risk while we cling to a ‘winning is all that matters’ view of things. I’d tell her it’s time to rebuild the community’s faith in government, to engage the young in the process and to rebuild values and ethics into the job description for those who want to lead nations.
Then I’d explain that in order to let go of the past, a new kind of leadership is required – which is why Obama’s time has come.
I don’t hate her. Hate is a wasteful and destructive emotion. While Hillary has let herself down in so many ways during this campaign, for me the choice is based purely on who can best raise the standards and set a new agenda for the next generation. It’s simply time for a new direction and Obama is the one who can lead it.
“Will you pull a bait-and-switch, sir, and enslave the white race? Is that your plan?” But Obama laughed it off. “That is not our plan, Jon, but I think your paranoia might make you suitable as a debate moderator.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/21/barack-obama-on-the-daily_n_97889.html
Pancho & Diogenes
Pancho#1453
“Ron, it is a fundamental misunderstanding of the U.S. voting system to represent the signing up of voters as ‘grubby vote fixing switching’…”
Ron says
POINT 1/
Let me say bluntly but with intended respect to you Pancho at the outset.
There are probably 30 Obama supporters here (some blog irregularly).
Whilst I am a lay person & probably lack conciseness & literary prose , I do understand the quite varying demographics of the 30 odd Obama supporters here who are in very different demographics , right from one extreme of the spectrum to the elitist top.
I am not going to wear the varying ‘level’ of these wide demographic ‘assaults’ and particularly when I’m grossly outnumbered but am not complaining ……….so I attempt to tune my responses accordingly to each demographic Obama supporter area but with 30 Obama supporters & their demographic diversity , tuning replys can lead to the wrong demographic level reply to the wrong demographic supporter but perhaps not very often. Pity the ‘wolve pack’ & chorus effect of this site herds bloggers to within bounds.
Unfortunately on this blog , my frankness often meets with silence in response
POINT 2/
Your specific #1453 comments:
The substance of your blog & the overall message in it I agree with entirely.
I do understand their system & it can not be changed but think its got flaws,
open to manipulation by the those who have the most money and/ or those who are astute enough to better use networking , internet , direct mailing & ground based staff. Furthermore where the Candidate is ‘young’ orhas deemed ‘young ideas appealing’ then the advantage is accentuated as the young congregate at Uni’s whereas the older people do not congregate. In addition re the ‘young’ , the ‘young’ use ‘text messaging’ repeatedly everyday far more than you or I use the phone
Obama the ‘young’ Candidate in this new technological age is the beneficiary & thats where alot (not all) of his Primary elections vote support came from & is
So Obama in a democratic sense has & is using I think an unfair advantage to get the Nomineeship in that if Gore for example was the alternative Candidate instead of Hillary , Obama would still have the same ‘unfair’ advantages over Gore as well , whereas I believe Gore would have been by far the most electable Candidate of the lot & has many sound policys including environmental (and was my clear preference but the Democrat leadership did not try hard enough I think)
So neither the system nor the money , nor ‘young’ age and technological advantages is necessary going to produce the correct choice and whilst ths is reality it does not make it right & further serves as a caution that in future an astute evangelitical type brilliant orator but neocon using the same ‘unfair advantages can win both a party’s Nomineeship but also POTUS
What my specific example demonstates is an example of Obama’s advvantage due to him being the ‘young’ Candidate. It also demonstrates (which is why I posted it) that Team Obama is quite comfortable in at the last possible minute switching Repug & Independent registered voters over to being Democrat registered voters for the day to get Obama votes in Pennsylvania and hence his ‘the new style of politic’ is nonsense I think. Obama is a Pollie for mine like all Pollies and lies (but more disingenuously than Hillary). The decision for Nominee should be based not on this preacher ‘message to the faithful & those disenchanted with all Pollies’ because nothing in real reality will change & I think he is just another Pollie who also tells lies to get votes but has brilliant speechs.
Instead I think Obama should be assessed on his judgement , convictions , variances to what his ‘message’ purports to be , his consistency of public comments , his ticker etc etc and his policys which in at least 2 crucial areas are significantly different to Hillarys and would prefer debate on these 7 plus matters but that will never solely be
EC at 1472 – great clip, now have tears in my eyes.
Jen – I’m with you on an Obama win in Pennsylvania on the grounds that Clinton support is collapsing and the young turnout will be stunning in its proportion.
#1446 – Jen [What’s behind his change of heart (Dick Morris)] What is there left for me say?
April 22, 2008
Campaign All About Perceptions of Obama
By E. J. Dionne
DOWNINGTOWN, Pa. — The result of the 2008 election may come down to how voters decide to define Barack Obama. Is he Adlai Stevenson or John F. Kennedy? Is he a detached former law review editor or a passionate agent of change? Is he an upscale reformer focused on process or a populist who will turn Washington and the country around?
One of the central lessons of the Pennsylvania primary campaign is that Obama’s personality is now far more important than either Hillary Clinton’s or John McCain’s. That’s true not only because voters have a longer history with Clinton and McCain, but also because so much of the energy and novelty of 2008 is the product of Obama’s rapid breakthrough to wide acclaim.
As a result, almost all of the turns in this contest have been driven by how Obama presented himself and how voters perceived him.
The struggle in Pennsylvania has been less a decision between Clinton and Obama than a referendum on which Obama voters wish to see. This may define the country’s choice in November as well.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/campaign_all_about_perceptions.html
1471 [Hate is a wasteful and destructive emotion. While Hillary has let herself down in so many ways during this campaign]
Well said ferny. The other distinction to make is between the person overall and their behaviour. I find Hillary’s actions when she lies and dog-whistles to be despicable, but that is the behaviour, not the person. I know there’s more to her than that. I think she’s unfit for what she aspires to, but that isn’t hatred.
1441
Greeensborough Growler
Alan Greenspan?????????????????
A man who’s name is about to enter the lexicon for the most idiotically dangerous central banker in all history.
Surely, you either jest, or just don’t have a clue.
Prediction for Pennsylvania: Hillary wins by 4%(52-48)
Al #1460 and the Obamabots
The STORY is “Obamabot” term was published in the ‘Age’ !!
to over 600,000 people. Wow
There are MANY Obamabots right now gritting their teech that a qulaity newspaper (refer my #1428) has publicly said “Obamabots
I am happy , indeed very happy that GG drew my attention to this “exposure”
You or anyone else wishs to try to diminish this fact of not the 600 , but the 600,000 , by talking about flattery or the creator, you will be continually reminded instead of the real story here… ie. the ‘Age’ said the term “Obamabot”
Did the ‘Age’ writer read PB , you do not know at all but they should as William runs an excellent site. Who else here blogged during 2007 in the US re this election , again you do not know and you will never know. Such triffling when public exposure in the ‘Age’ is the real story
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1829426120080420
Turning Worm
#1403
you took a one liner cheap shot at the ‘age’ saying “the Age’ i a liberal rag’
I rebutted your one liner in #1428
All you reply is another one liner.
Back it up intellectually or cann’t you slice mustard
Ron,
I don’t have a problem with the term “Obamabot”. It accurately describes some of the disciples of Barack who don’t actually know much about him other than that it’s hip. That The Age published the term doesn’t really mean anything either. I mean, how many registered American voters read The Age? And even then, how many of them wouldn’t have heard the term themselves anyway?
Ron @ 1473
Why was that addressed to me? I haven’t said anything all day.
KR,
My understanding is he retired as Fed Chairman over two years ago.
Fascinating that anyone that you disagree with is a fool, moron, dimwit, ideolgoically dangerous etc etc. Such a charming bed side manner you posess.
Must have been a bitter experience for you to be overlooked for so many important positions in life when you know you could have done it better. But, I suppose that would have denied you the pleasure of self righteous blustering.
A couple of salient paragraph’s:
The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE, which has tracked youth voting since the U.S. voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, says this year has seen the highest national registration rate in history among those under 30.
On a trajectory to surpass 2004’s record showing by young voters, turnout in some state primaries this year tripled or even quadrupled over the previous presidential election, said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine.
In every presidential election since 1972, turnout by citizens under 30 in Pennsylvania was slightly below the national average for young voters and lagged behind that of older voters. In 2004, 47 percent of young Pennsylvanians, and 68 percent of those over 30, went to the polls, according to CIRCLE.
…it’s going to be interesting to see how many vote this time.
1482
But you were thinking it Diog. And now you’ve been caught out!
1483
Greeensborough Growler
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about, but feel free to insult me personally, because that is clearly about all you’re good at.
Please refrain from your senseless personal abuse.
I have a spare zip if you need it KR
Diogenes #1482
I copy pasted & yours was included in error. My appologies
No Ron, I can’t slice mustard. Boom Tish.
FG @ 1485 could you please warn us in future; am now back in the chair…
That’s three times now Dio…
KR,
1486 is not one of your best efforts at consistent argument. You prove my points and then contradict youself.
You are the Master!
1487
Ferny Grover
hahaha!!!
Thanks Ferny! LOL
I’ll keep that in mind.
Funny, isn’t it? The world’s economic press has gone ballistic over Greenspan’s refusal to push up rates at a time when it was clear that he was excessively overheating credit creation, and when confronted with the outrageous sub-prime fiasco developing as a result of his policies, he just dismissed it as the market’s problem!
So, what I was saying is that a huge body of opinion is pinning this on Greenspan’s failure to either regulate or take away the punch bowl.
But what the hell, abuse is so much easier than actually having an argument that’s based on anything.
Diogenes-
you don’t need to have said anything to cop some unintelligible spray. I am more amazed by the hour that it continues with such relentless tedium.
Ah well KR, there’s your problem. A battle of wits requires – well – y’know
The chances of contest going on to the convention looking slimmer all the time -and the lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote will be the key factor for the SD’s. I wonder who that will favour? From the Washington Post – “8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary”:
1491
Greeensborough Growler
The only ‘points’ you make are with rather dull old barbs. Care to actually argue your ‘points’ rather than hurl them?
Come on, I’m sure you’re actually more intelligent than that…when you try!
Finns @1475-
and your point is???
(the article states that this vote is all about Obama, and voters perceptions. duh!)
And come to think of it, didn’t HRC offer to put together a team of economic people, one of whom was Alan Greenspan?
Yes, she did.
So AG endorsing Hillary would be flagrant self-interest, would it not?
GG #1483
Well slapped down as usual to kirri , GG.
The most remarkable thing about Greenspan is that up to around 2002 or later , he had served as Fed boss for over a decade and was very highly regarded by the economic Ministers of EVERY Industialised Country including both Rudd , Beasley , Swan & Costello etc a fact that Kirri selectively ignores. You guys can not help yourselves in only picking out on the facts what suits you.
Had Obama got him , Kirri would be crowing. He is using double standards only because Hillary got him. Kevin07 would be ahppy to receive his advice
The Feds prime job is inflation. Greenspan managed that remarkably well over a long period but has deteriorated more recently. The problems facing the US economy , the stockmarket & the meltdown are far beyond a blog. What one cn say is the ‘credit crisis & the bigger whole there not yet exposed is a problem of poor & greedy & manipulative lending practices & lack of regulation which at the end of the day there are many players ‘responsible’ and Greenspan isn’t at the top. You can blame the Stock Exchange, the Fed , the brokers , underwriters , the ‘Banks’ like Bear Stearns & Co , Bush , but primarily the legislative ‘lack of regulation responsibilty rests with Congress and since 2006 the Democrats have had some control. The blame essentially belongs to the Pollies of both Partys & their faith in the almost fully unregulated ‘free market’
Hillary reaches out to the GOP
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/22/2224085.htm