Morgan: 64.5-35.5

The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.

Other news:

• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.

• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

690 comments on “Morgan: 64.5-35.5”

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  1. I am aware that would be the case, William. #596

    To expand a little on what I said, I have heard of sites which are overwhelmed, and by accounts, deliberately so, in an effort to bring them down.

    My intention is a challenge to that kind of attempt. And I do wonder. Look at nemesis, since even then has not stopped the meaningless post.

    On the other hand, he may just be nemesis.

  2. [580#Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs Says:
    March 2nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
    Mexican Beemer, I hope you noticed my response at 330 to you.]

    Yes, I saw your post and agreed.

    [I’m of the view that the primarily part Aboriginal children were primarily removed for the purpose of breeding the Aboriginal peoples out. Again, in my view, a continuation of other genocidal actions such as massacres, deliberate introduction of disease, poisoning, in another form.]

    This view appears based upon the comments made by various Politicans and Public servents who impliemented the policy

    [However, the point I was trying to make is that in order for an arrest to be made, a report of abuse/assault must be made, and for many children and adults this is often difficult for a few of the reasons I advanced.]

    I accept this view, this was one of the reasons why mantionary reporting was introduced, sadly when it comes to child abuse or domestic violence the view that what happens behind closed doors remains behind closed doors was used to hide from the problem.

    The way rape victims are forced to face the offender in court is one of the reason why many rapes go unreported, and how in some cases the rape victim is cross-examinted only adds to the suffering caused by the orginal crime.

  3. Crikey Whitey Says: @ 601,

    [I have heard of sites which are overwhelmed, and by accounts, deliberately so, in an effort to bring them down.]

    It’s amazing that you mention that Crikey.
    I was strangely enough, thinking along similar lines when I posted at 575.

    My thoughts were that that individual was purposely sabotaging the blog so that people would become frustrated and lose interest in posting on the site and in reading and commenting on other posters.

    When that individual started overwhelming the site with repetitive and trashy comments, there was quite a deal of informative and enjoyable traffic which very quickly dried up, basically sabotaging the blog.

    I stand by my comments at 575. This individual is nothing but a self-centered troll deliberately trashing William’s excellent blog.

  4. For sure, Scorpio. Apart from the cost implications, which I was concentrating on, the mere trashy stuff is enough to put one off.

    In fact, my post counting is evidence of exactly that. Did I take any note of. or respond to the content?


    I was engaged with the trash.

    Now, I don’t much respond to rubbish, but I suppose that I have, actually.

  5. Everyone (except William)
    as GUSFACE
    i was quite acceptable
    as NEMESIS i am cause for concern

    take a long long long hard look at yourselves


  6. Nemesis, your behaviour under your new name has been quite different to that under your old name. You have indeed proved something here, but it’s not what you think.

  7. Interesting moves in the Libs, taking away the power of the branches, could it be that they are finally ready to accept the fact that they were unelectable thanks to the loony right fringe. And are finally ready to confront and change their public perceptions.

  8. Will the expected bloodbath on the ASX give the Reserve Bank pause for thought on further interest rate rises. This should be enough to spook the consumer spending spree, the spectre of deflation is looming in the US.

  9. Zoom, the fact is that the measures taken so far by the US Fed Reserve (lowering interest rates dramatically esp) have had no impact on the US economy, indeed it has continued its downward spiral. The likelihood of deflation must be now considered a very real possibility. All we need now is for the oil exporting countries to demand payment in euros and it’s goodnight nurse.

  10. The other consideration to put in the pot is the role of the Chinese.
    My understanding (no source, just the ‘vibe’ over the last few months) is that one of the main sources of financial backing internationally is the Chinese.
    If you’re the up and coming superpower and want to dispose of the old superpower, wouldn’t you be tempted to pull the plug on them financially?
    (My son jests that he wants to rule the world when he grows up. My advice is to him is that conquest by arms is old hat – do it through control of the economy).

  11. Yes, Zoom, my understanding is that it is the Chinese who are propping up the US now, financing their debt borrowings. Along with the usual suspects of course, Saudis etc. Regarding your son, I really hope you didn’t name him Adolph 🙂

  12. Aussie SX taking a beating this morning, along with most Asian markets, also bad employment figures coming out of the US. Really hope the RBA is watching!

  13. Sorry I don’t know how to do links so have cut and paste from The telegraph
    Isn’t it great to have a government that is respected on the international stage and is able to negotiate on delicate issues? My admiration for Kev rises more every day!

    SCHAPELLE Corby’s chances of returning to Australia to serve out the rest of her 20-year sentence have been dramatically boosted following confidential negotiations between the Rudd Government and Indonesia.

    Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus has held high-level talks in Jakarta aimed at finalising a prisoner transfer treaty with Indonesia that could see Corby return home within a year.

    Mr Debus met Indonesia’s Attorney-General and Foreign Minister a week ago to hammer out details of the proposed treaty, which has languished over the past 18 months after negotiations stalled on several crucial details.

    A signed treaty would allow Corby and at least three members of the Bali Nine to serve out the remainder of their sentences in Australian jails, close to family and in conditions far more comfortable than those in Bali’s Kerobokan prison.

  14. vera Says: @ 625.

    [Sorry I don’t know how to do links ]

    Vera, to paste a link, right click in the “adress bar” of the article to be linked to, left click on “cut”, return to the “comments window” at PB and right click where you wish to place the link and right click on paste like I have done here. Easy.

    There are other ways to do it, but this is the easiest for me.

    Cheers, Scorpio.

  15. Zoom and Basil (618 and 621 respectively)

    Its no different than when the Japanese were financing the Carter/Reagan administrations deficits in the late 70s/early 80s. What happened then was that the US used its superior political/trade clout to basically tie the Japanese into continuing to do this for fear of restrictions on their access to the US market. Called it the Plaza Accords (1984 i think).

    Anyway, depends on whether or not you think the US still has that political clout to pull a similar move, it could be one of the first moves of the new regime.

  16. Off topic but topical and interesting and relevant…

    I made mention of this before – seems you can read the whole article on-line now at Scientific American

    A Solar Grand Plan
    A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.

  17. 606
    nemesis Says:
    March 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
    take a long long long hard look at yourselves

    “I have. Everyone has. They love it”

    Nemesis’s departure needed more fist shaking, piousness and a vow of revenge.

  18. Good point, Yo ho ho.
    So the question is, would the Chinese allow their biggest market to collapse, thus damaging their own economy?
    I suppose it depends how used to the benefits of a booming economy China has become and whether they are willing to bear a short period of economic loss when the result may well be that they become the ‘top nation’ at the end of it.
    A risk, certainly, but a risk worth taking?
    As a totalitarian society (to what extent this is true, I don’t know) they’d be likely to take a longer term view than a wussy democracy. (Don’t get me wrong, I love democracies, but short term political considerations DO get in the way of world domination).
    So is the best long term option for them…
    i. continuing to shore up a collapsing US economy by not pulling the plug and thus maintaining a market for their goods, so that they can continue to build (still get to the world dominance bit in the long run);
    ii. pulling the plug, taking short term pain, and reducing the US to the same level of world playerdom as the UK currently enjoys? (so still influential, just not The Leader?)

  19. Was nemesis really gusface?? Seemed much more irrational and juvenile to me.
    I have a small business and all the long-term traders are saying things have never been so quiet. add on a couple more interest rate rise and it’s pretty scary.

  20. Zoom

    I think its a wait and see thing for the Chinese. They’d be petrified of striking to early…the USA’s economy has looked massively pear shaped before (early 1970s, early 1980s) and countries that have been financing their deficits are usually the countries that get burnt (see Europe after Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, and the Japanese with the plaza accords). The upper echelons who run the Chinese economy (at least, the national economy – the local govts routinely screw the economy for their own political benefit) are quite cluey on these things.

  21. zoom @ 630 – I don’t see it as an either/or situation and I hope the Chinese don’t either.

    It’s probably a moot point anyway. Successive American governments have been doing the work for them, and I’m far from convinced that any of the current presidential candidates would make the fundamental changes required to significantly turn things around. For one thing it would mean giving up much of the imperium.

    If they’re smart the Chinese will be broadening their market bases ASAP. They’ve already indicated that they want to substantially increase the size of their domestic market. While that is a good move it will inevitably cause them to become less competitive at the low end of many market sectors, clothing, electronics and toys that make up the majority of their exports to the US.

  22. steve @ 637 – From the link:
    At what point might Chinese investment in Australia become contrary to the national interest?

    It would be equally valid to ask “At what point might Australian control of international resource companies become contrary to China’s national interest?”

    At least the Chinese are willing to use cash to prevent potential monopolies which may strangle their national interest and not political thuggery or war.

  23. 638 It was an amazing series of posts that often were impossible to decipher, seemed far more serious than anything I have seen here before, I too hope he is OK.

  24. Is anyone else looking forward to tonight’s Newspoll? I bet some of you are like kids at Christmas; “Santa is comin’, I hope he brings me what I want.”

  25. 643 News what? – I must admit that, although I looked forward to every poll last year, now that the election is over and a long way off, these polls mean very little to me. Mind you, if they’re like this just out from the next election I will be delighted.

  26. 643 BSF A newspoll following the record breaking nine percent ppm will create a bit of interest. I think Rudd has pretty well cut him short of oxygen with his ioo days achievements so we may well see a move towards zero for Nelson. Wonder if Sham-I-am will break open a new calculator and work out the margin of error for this poll properly.

  27. If there is a one percent rise in Nelson PPM figure, will it be written up as a 10% rise?

    Will Cardboard Kevin be included in the figures?

    Will South America erupt into war? (And what is that going to do to the oil price?)

  28. Hmmm businesses slowing? My homebrew shop is doing OK, but I guess it is a counter cyclical thing–it was slow while the house building boom here was in full roar.

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