ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria

The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

207 comments on “ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. I was surprised at the strength of Labor support here. Although I think Baillieu is a bit of a tosspot, Brumby does seem to be riding roughshod over all dissent in the community.

  2. Which I think is what a lot of voters want.

    They want governments to act to solve issues – not prevaricate or to be beaten into inaction by interest groups.

    For good or ill, I think this may well become the next style of politically successful government.

  3. I don’t live in Victoria so I don’t know much but in general conservative parties do better on election day than they do in polls. I would suggest that this polls is not showing an increased support for Labor but that they have not lost any ground. This is still a bad sign for the Liberals.

  4. Brumby is the only Premier I know of who has bothered to meet with protesters – not that they give him any credit for it, but at least he gives them a hearing.
    I was also impressed with his behaviour when he was ‘trapped’ by a group of protesters at a public meeting (they blocked all the exits with tractors). He talked with them and negotiated his way out. Given that they were clearly breaking several laws (unlawful imprisonment, to start with), he was remarkably forgiving. To my knowledge, the people involved got off scot free.

  5. 59-41!

    I’m not too shocked by these numbers for John Brumby is good at getting on with the job and while certain groups may be loud these groups are generally within Liberal Party areas some examples.

    Anti dreging – mostly found in the Liberal areas of the Mornington Peninsula

    Anti desalination – mostly in the Liberal and National party held Gippsland area

    the only group that may hurt Brumby are the Anti pipeline people who are found in the ALP seat of Seymour

    So all up Brumby has the strenghts of Kennett (meaning he gets on with it) without the weakness of ticking off the heartland, yes the Teachers and Nurses want highter pay but I can’t see these people backing the Liberals in light of the Kennett years.

    I reckon come Election day the result may match the last federal one.

  6. Zoom, I don’t recall Brumby meeting with protesters in fact I seem to recall him running away from the de-salination crowd.

  7. Let me see Glen

    1. Red Ted Baillieu, the leader who stands for……….
    2. Opposition disharmony with recent leadership spill in Upper House
    3. Brumby getting on with the job with the dredging of the Bay opposed by those who will vote Labor), the Goulbourn to Melbourne pipeline (opposed by those who will never vote Labor).
    4. Constant disruption and infighting re Costello’s departure/replacement.
    5. Coalition with the Nats.

    The Libs are a rabble in Victoria. That is why 59-41 is extremely credible.

  8. Have there been any other polls recently in Victoria? Can this be compared to anything other than the previous election result?

  9. Even a rabble would get more than 41% GG, that’s why im circumspect about this poll though i’ve been gradually getting used to the fact that Victoria is no longer the jewel in the Liberal Crown unfortunately its sad but true. I know we’re doing badly across the nation but not this badly.

  10. As long as Brumby is more popular in Victoria than Iemma in NSW, we shouldn’t be surprised by these results. That, and what Stephen (3) said.

  11. You lot in Victoria should be thankful for having a Government which actually makes some decisions unlike here in SA. Rann makes all kinds of suggestions, most of them poorly-thought out, and then waits for the criticism to come. When it inevitably does, he gets sicks Foley onto us and calls us whingers. And of course does nothing to fix anything.

  12. Hmm i wonder though. Given the historic result for the federal electorate of Melbourne. Is it possible the greens could win the state electorates of either Melbourne and/Richmond. Brunswick is probably abit rich. Knowing of an almost inevitable labor vicotry at this stage, the absence of howard and the whole coffafle aboot port dredging.

  13. 1) The honeymoon of the federal government has clouded this result

    2) on the primary figures the greens poll 10 percent. On a basic reckoning that you triple the green vote in the inner city, Melbourne is gone and Richmond and Brunswick are in 1-2 percent territory.

    3) The next election will be a contest. 3rd terms governments have a tough time and the libs are not in complete dissaray as has been suggested by others. The coalition agreement shows they are on the offensive.

  14. Depends whether the Greens get Liberal preferences….also the Greens failed in the 2006 election to win any seats in inner Melbourne, but they are a minor party they aren’t going to win seats in the lower house.

  15. Greens will get Lib preferences. The Victorian Libs are not crazy like the NSW Libs. The Vics won;t pass up an opportunity to cause Labor harm and at a minimum make us invest resources on another front.

  16. Ballieu is a disaster. The fact that the Victorian Liberals haven’t even been able to lead in one opinion poll over the last 9 years against a very mediocre Labor government is a testament to their incompetence.

    The Vic Libs better get their act together. Instead of advocating a more “progressive” approach (ie running to the Left of Labor), they should try to stand for something. Attacking Labor’s appalling “nanny state” would be a good place to start.

  17. ‘Premier Brumby wouldn’t address people at the Melbourne Rally but he invited a delegation from the organizers of the Rally to meet him after it. Speaking to one of the delegation basically he said the Rally hadn’t made a difference to Mr. Brumby and that he was not listening.’
    …from a ‘Plug the Pipeline’ newsletter. Written by Mike Dalmau, well known local Liberal.

    As I said, he wasn’t given any credit for at least meeting with them.
    I don’t know whether – having got absolutely no kudos for doing this – he decided it was an experiment not worth repeating, but at least he showed the protestors more courtesy than they have him.

  18. There’s a strong anti-dredging movement around St Kilda (Albert Park District), and the Greens did pretty well there at the last election (34.7% after distribution compared with ALP 51.8%). However, the new member, Martin Foley, seems to have made a good impression on his electorate and by the time the State election is held the anti-dredging issues might well be forgotten, as long as they haven’t had bad longterm environmental effects. I’m not surprised that Labor is continuing to do well with the pathetic performance of the opposition in Victoria. Brumby doesn’t have Bracks’s charm, but he’s very competent.

  19. I wouldn’t preference the Greens even if the HTV card told me too, id rather the Greens be marginalised. But im in the seat of Prahran a seat the Libs will need to win if they want Government back so that wont be happening anytime soon.

  20. The Greens have touted that they are going to win these seats at the last few elections and have yet to pull it off (not saying they won’t, but wish they wouldn’t cry ‘wolf’ so often).
    On what basis do you triple the Greens vote for Melbourne seats, cityblue? Do you have real figures or is this inspired guesswork? There is no variation in the Greens vote between regional and Melbourne voters, according to this poll, so either you are saying that all Greens voters in Melbourne live in these few seats, or….you don’t know what you’re saying at all.
    The Albert Park result was clouded by the lack of Liberal candidate, so cannot be used as an indicator of the likely result in a full State election.
    Vic Libs MAY preference Greens over Labor but given the extreme right leanings of the remaining rump of Liberal voters, I doubt that they’d follow the HTV under those circumstances (might have some influence in the Upper House….)

  21. Federal Election 2007:
    Greens Statewide House Vote – 8.17 percent
    Greens Melbourne vote – 22.8 percent

    State Electrion 2006:
    Greens Statewide Assembly Vote – 10.04 percent
    Greens Melbourne vote – 27.41 percent
    Greens Richmond vote – 24.68 percent (Greens hurt by Socialist candidate)
    Greens Brunswick vote – 29.71 percent

    Its in the range, so my estimate is not especially problematic.

  22. True, Zoom, I’d forgotten that there was no Lib candidate in Albert Park. What a demonstration that was of Baillieu’s lack of clout.

  23. Well well Bracksy wasted $200,000 on private charted flights in just 36 months, when he could of traveled commercially…why such an incompetent Government can remain in power gives me the red ass when the Liberals cant get off their behinds and do something…anything!

  24. Prior to the 2006 State election, ACNeilson had the Greens on 13% (October 2006).
    Comparing like with like, I think that means you can double the ACNeilson figure for Melbourne, but not treble it.

  25. Hardly anything even going business class. Compared to tens of thousands to take him from Melb to Can to Sydney and back. Typical Labor no wonder Victoria is in the red.

    What a waste of money for a State leader i mean really i can understand the need for the PM to have that sort of luxury but a State Premier no way.

  26. Someone mentioned St Kilda (Albert Park) this area could be a shock pick up for the Liberals if they had their act together for both the anti-dregding and anti Triangle development vote could cost the ALP votes but in writing that I’m aware Martin Foley has made a good impression on the locals therefore should be able to hold the seat.

    Also the Greens biggest problem in St Kilda is their strongest booth is not in the seat of Albert Park

    Some ask about the Greens, look they came very close against Lindsay Tanner and he is more popular than Pike (MP for Melbourne) I think Melbourne could be interesting, I agree the Greens have little hope of winning Brunswick, Richmond could swing towards the Greens but Richard Wynne should hold.

    The only real hope the Liberals have is if Brumby falls apart or their develops an anti Rudd vote or if as I’m sure may be the case those who refused to vote Liberal at State level as a protest against Howard.

    At this stage the Liberals will be doing well to win Six seats.

  27. Glen
    did a bit of research, the only commercial flights within Victoria that I can find go to Mildura a couple of times a week and to Mt Hotham in the ski season.
    I’m sure there’s one to Albury as well, just couldn’t find it.
    Still, if there’s only three destinations in Victoria the Premier could fly to commercially, it explains the need to charter.
    The Premier of Victoria needs to visit places in Victoria, often at very short notice, and many towns in Victoria are only accessible by chartered flights.
    Certainly, in the months after the bushfires, that’s how he visited areas such as Bright, Manfield and Omeo.

  28. [Still, if there’s only three destinations in Victoria the Premier could fly to commercially, it explains the need to charter.
    The Premier of Victoria needs to visit places in Victoria, often at very short notice, and many towns in Victoria are only accessible by chartered flights.]

    Also, it may be possible that the Premier may visit 2 or 3 locations in one day, along with Minders, heads of departments etc – bit impractiable toy use commercial flights.

    Also, Charted flights also afford privacy to prepare speeches/do briefings etc.

    I’d bet Glen wouldn’t be whinging about Howard’s use of private jets when he was PM ?

  29. So use a combination of car and commercial/local air services, there is no way to excuse this waste of money Frank especially when Bracks took his wife to Hamilton island at Taxpayers expense.

    Frank i dont have a problem with the Prime Minister of Australia (of any Party) using such services they truly need them but 200,000 dollars in 36 months for just a Premier seems a bit rich to me.

  30. Victoria in the Red? Not likely, it is in the black by over a billion dollars. Part of the reason the teachers are demanding more money.

  31. Glen is partly correct about the Brumby Government borrowing money but over all the Victorian Budget is in very good shape with bigger than promised budget surplus.

    I can list a whole range of complants with this Government but over all the Victorian Government is in better shape than most of the other States.

  32. I’m not sure if Glen is aware but Kennett did not leave Victoria debt free, the state still had a debt of $6 Billion this fiqure is about what it remains to this day, and while I don’t like Governments to have debt but as long as the over all budget is balanced then the debt is manageable, as someone who has worked in Finance I can assure Glen that without Debt, business could not operate.

  33. At the last state election the Libs only preferenced the Greens in four seats.

    I can’t imagine them preferencing Labor in those four seats next time around (and a few others maybe, if not statewide) after four years of virtually working side by side in the legislative council.

    It’ll be interesting to see if Richard Di Natale wants to take yet another tilt at the seat of Melbourne. I think he’d win it this time around. You can’t come that close that many times (in Melbourne at state level, and in the senate at the last federal election) and not come away with a win on at least one occasion.

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