ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria

The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

207 comments on “ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. I think the only for a Liberal party recovery nationally is if some of the Federal members go into State politics – they will have nothing to do for the next 6 years anyway.

  2. 14
    TurningWorm Says:
    February 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    Last Newspoll in Victoria, 60-40.

    Soon we’ll be hearing Big Ted cry out:

    “We’ll be back! We’ll be back!”

  4. Glen, run for the hills. The Victorian Government credit rating is a paltry AAA and the news just gets worse.

    A forecast rise in Victoria’s net debt would not be problem for the state or impact its top line credit rating, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) says.

    [“Today’s budget for the state of Victoria is consistent with the AAA rating already assigned to the state,” S&P said.

    “The outlook on Victoria is stable.”

    The AAA rating is the highest assigned by S&P.

    S&P credit analyst Danielle Westwater said the Victorian government’s forecast strong operating performance and balance sheet will allow it to comfortably manage a projected increase in net debt, the funding of election commitments and some tax relief.

    Debt will rise due to an expanded capital program.

    “Downside potential on the rating remains low,” Ms Westwater said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/debt-wont-hurt-credit-rating-sampp/2007/05/01/1177788119734.html

  5. Glen,

    For goodness sake get some mates to play.

    You keep on banging your head against the brick wall. But, you never give up.

    Good for you.

    If the Liberal Party is looking for supporters with Heart, they can never go past you.

    Cheers.

  6. If anyone is in the West, it’s worth watching Australian Story about Nicole Cornes. It turns out she was sexually abused when 5 and the court case was happening during the federal election. The Advertiser asked her about the abuse in an interview and photographed her tearing up and used the photo, saying that she cried under tough political questioning.

    I love journalists. I can work out why they are viewed as less trustworthy than used-car salesmen, I just can’t understand why they are rated better than drug dealers. I’ve met quite a few drug dealers through work and I know which group I’d prefer to spend time with.

  7. Glen would much rather Victoria be in the black than spend money on infrastructure. Have I summed up your position accurately Glen?

  9. You are right Steve. Glen wants the state Labor government to buy their way back into office each election with tax cuts and handouts. Yeah, that’s it? Am I getting close to your position on this Glen?

  10. Slightly changing the topic. Can someone tell me the faction representation in the New South Wales parliamentry labor party? Just out of Interest.

  11. Unfortunately,for Glen now that the Federal Propaganda machine of the Liberals in Canberra has had it’s wings clipped, he will find that he could pick any state and find prudent economic management.

    Swan will soon drag the Federal budget into order and the last bastion of Tory propaganda will be shown to be nonsense. I refer of course to the often repeated lie that, “interest rates will always be higher under a Labor Government.”

    Short term while the Liberal Party mess is cleaned up – Yes. Long term – No

  12. I hope the critics of Nicole Cornes were watching Australian Story tonight. She ran a terrific election campaign despite malevolent media and the distraction of a particularly nasty court case in which she was the very innocent victim. Now she’s enrolled for a masters degree in international law. Is there anyone who still thinks she’s a bimbo?

  14. Make the most of the poll Brumby because these numbers will not last. My tip is that the next election will be close.
    Brumby is no leader, polls are just about oh gees i’m alright economically so i think Brumby is doing a good job, but when people really concentrate which they will do at the next election people will see Brumby for what he is arrogant and aloof. Ballieau is the same a toff who is boring, when he speaks he has short sentence way of talking but without any punch. Nonetheless as the economy worsens so to will Brumbys’ poll numbers.
    To me neither party in Victoria believes in anything and has any vision. Brumby all for the top end of town and Ballieau all for the top end and cutting public services at the same time.

  19. Well, given the recent spilling of blood on this worthy site I hereby declare myself as a supporter of Ted Bailleau, in an honest effort to ‘even up the balance’.
    And I hope you all know how much this hurts, but it’s a sign of my committment to the cause of…evening up the balance.

  21. Jen, in that case you’d better learn to spell his name!!
    Do you think you can bring yourself to vote for Silly Billy, simply in the name of balance??

  22. Jen,

    It is OK on this site. Seeing as the Greens and the LIbs are such pally pals here in Victoria. You know, always voting with the Libs in the Upper House.

    God bless you and your conservatsim.

  23. marky marky,

    I thought were a bit better than that.

    That is the sort of thing that even a bottom swelling, fish and chip wrapper journalist would find too distasteful to say in print.

  24. @72

    Greens parties internationally tend to work effectively in coalition or informal partnership with conservative parties. They complement each other’s weaknesses pretty well and are effective as a result.

  25. So if being green on the outside and pink in the middle makes you a watermelon, what are you if you’re green on the outside and blue in the middle?
    (Actually, I’ve just realised…it makes you an adolescent….)

  26. Jen, The Liberals should look to selecting the Member for Scoresby as its leader- Kim Wells, because he explains himself well and talks without this plum in his mouth.
    He looks also like an ordinary bloke.
    Hate to help the toffs but to me he should be leader of the libs in Victoria. Although yet he hasn’t made much of an impact as OPP Treasurer.

  27. Now GG- that was a low blow .
    We only vote with the Libs to allow the state to run. We could cause unnecessary grief but that would just being recalcitrant for the sake of it. And we like to make it worth our while.

  28. Besides Guys, I’m just saying I’d support the libs here.
    You don’t know what I might do when I’m alone in the ballot box with a pencil.

  29. Here we go again, the same lies about the Greens and the Libs in Victoria. Just because the Greens vote against things for principles and not for politics.

  30. 77 Jen, if you are going to run with the Libs, people are liable to mistake you for a Lib. I don’t think that any obscure ‘balance theory’ is worth the pain. Most people are here because they want to be, I won’t be putting myself in the Tory camp for the sake of ‘balance’ I can assure you.

  31. The Greens aren’t squeaky clean when it comes to playing politics. Anyone who believes they are believes in Santa Clause as well.

  32. 79
    MM
    Calm down .
    After Brumby has pissed off half the state , and the libs are looking as much of a joke as they are now (with an extra dollop of help from the Federal Party), the Greens will come to the fore.
    I predict that at the next state election, with water, logging, dredging and other environmental issues becoming prominent that the Greens will be a major influence.

  33. Marky marky, I’m interested in your support for Kim Wells. Considering your high-minded principles which you display on here regularly, I am wondering if there is something about Kim Wells which I have missed. Is he any less about the big end of town than Brumby?

  34. 80 Steve . We don’t “run with the libs” – soemtimes we both vote against Labor, For very different reasons, but still a No vote.
    So then it gets twisted into us supporting the Libs rather than not supporting Labor.
    Spin, my friend.

  35. Sorry Jen,

    It has been that sort of day.

    Now the Nats and Libs have re consumated their lust for each others better parts, the Greens are left at the altar.

    Think Democrats. Think irrelevancy.

  37. Kim Wells is a light weight and comes across as a moaner. I will say however he couldn’t do any worse than Big Ted, who by the way I think is probably a decent bloke but just doesn’t present well IMHO.

  38. Jen

    Can’t recall me criticising the Greens. Where? Jen like you i am a bit of a greenie, do not know though about this coming to the fore bit, as i doubt it but i hope it is possible.
    Gary,
    Yes all parties have faults but at present the Greens have the least amount, and at least have a few principles.

    Turning Worm
    Never said that Kim was not a part of the big end of town.
    Put simply i was referring to his image with the public, how many people actually know what the Libs stand for, and i doubt very few people do, and that is the very rich.

    To sidetrack- news today says that the Business Council believes that Howard wasted all its years in office, and yes it did, but the galle of the Business Council a group who paid for at the last election a massive ad campaign backing workchoices! who do these people think they are?
    The Rudd Government should tell them to go and jump.

  39. the sad thing about Oz politics is that the spectrum extends from the Liberal Party to the Labour (Labor) Party ….. that’s like being provided with a choice of anything is possible as long as it is the tolerance of + or minus point 000001

  43. They tried One Nation in the Queensland Parliament but they never progressed past what we saw in the Federal Parliament on Friday and eleven quickly became one.

  47. The ALP will find it hard to govern for its first term after all it will probably get nothing other than WC’s thrown out given its poor standing in the Senate.

    Question Time on tomorrow?

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