The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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207 comments on “ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria”
Way back at no. 135, Glen said:
I’d far more be able to reason with someone from Labor as i most of my friends vote ALP than somebody who votes Greens. Sure the Greens have their place but to say that a small fraction of society should have say the balance of power in deciding whether bills become law is a bad idea. Look it might be unfair to the very small percentage of society but more than 85% voted either Tory or ALP thus their views count far more than yours.
Glen makes the mistake of assuming that whoever has balance of power is pretty much in charge of the joint. They are not: The Government is. And even in the upper houses, the major parties have the vast majority of seats. If the major parties agree, the legislation gets through, and there’s nothing the Greens can do about it. Having the balance of power is only useful when the majority disagree. They act as a tie-breaker, a third opinion. This means that decisions the Greens arbitrate are agreed to by a majority of the voters: around 43 per cent from one major party and 10 per cent from the Greens, for a total of 53 per cent community support. Of course, this is less than the 85 per cent support you can get when the major parties agree and the Greens disagree, but what would you prefer? That 43 per cent walk over potentially 57 per cent without regard for any other opinions?
By having a third party hold balance of power in the parliament, you will have majority community support for decisions much more frequently than with only two parties. It is simply another way of achieving the same goal as preferential voting in the lower house, and surely you support that?
“to say that a small fraction of society should have say the balance of power in deciding whether bills become law is a bad idea.”
I would agree with that, we saw a lot of it during the Howard years:
Abbott views on RU486, termination counselling stem cell research became government policy even though his views represented a small fraction of society.
Similar with the National Party, they get only about 5% of the vote but their views on the the one wheat desk and AWB determined govt policy.
Same with Kyoto and the apology, overwhelming majority of Australians for both but a small group within the libs were able to impose their view onall.
John of Melbourne Says:
‘Can someone tell me why Cate Blanchett, WTF? What has she done besides help a hobbit return a ring?’
Of course you wouldn’t express this doubt on account of Cate is a woman, JOM, so I’m wondering what she’s done wrong apart from being clever, accomplished, successful, Artistic Director of Sydney Theatre Company? Oh, and rich (you’d have to like that).
I’m with you: Why Cate?
Should be Jeff.
OK, then let’s have BB and Cate, seeing she’s building an environmentally perfect house.
Come 2010 the Victorian ALP Government will be 11 years old making it the third oldest Government in Victorian history behind the Liberal era 1955-1982 and the Dunstan National Party Government of the 1930-40s yet the Liberals look further behind than ever before while we have a State Government that is average at best crusing for another easy election win.
Should the Liberals change leader, No and for one simple reason it’s not the leader that’s the problem, it’s the policies or lack off.
We have discussions abut the Kennett era and what or hasn’t been done since but what the voters want iasn’t talk about yesterday but how will Government fix the mess with Public Transport, fix it’s planning plicy an how will it improve Hosptial and Schools.
There is a danger that the Government could make the mistake that the Howard Government made and that was talking to it’self while the problems went unaddressed.
I’m sick and tired of this Brumby fellow. He is a mongrel who has upset our Police, Nurses, teachers, Firemen. Who does he think he is? He certainly doesn’t represent the working class. And doesn’t give a sh.. about anything except his political gains. He’s a liar and a nasty man.
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