Super Tuesday live

5.00pm. Missouri now being called for McCain, who leads Huckabee and Romney 33.1 per cent to 31.8 per cent and 29.3 per cent. Democratic contest still too close to call in Missouri, but Obama holds a slight lead and the trend has been favouring him for some time.

4.44pm. Fox calls Alaska for Obama. Slow progress in New Mexico.

4.36pm. Everyone now calling Arizona for Clinton.

4.25pm. Fox and ABC call Colorado for Romney.

4.23pm. CBS, Fox and ABC (though not CNN) calling McCain for California.

4.21pm. Obama has hit the lead in Missouri, 49.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent with 98 per cent reporting, after a number of outlets earlier called it for Clinton. Given that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionately, this is mostly of academic interest. Not so the state’s Republican race, a winner-takes-all contest in which McCain leads Huckabee and Romney 33.3 per cent to 32.0 per cent and 29.5 per cent, also with 98 per cent reporting. Fox and ABC are calling it for McCain, but not CNN.

4.13pm. NBC and Fox are both calling California for Clinton.

4.12pm. CBS calls Montana for Romney.

3.56pm. CNN now calling Utah for Obama: he leads 53-41 with 37 per cent reporting.

3.50pm. No significant results yet from Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Sacramento.

3.38pm. Clinton leads 55-33 in California with 10 per cent counted, but pronounced regional variations can presumably be expected from a state that boasts both Malibu and Compton.

3.37pm. CNN calling Minnesota for Romney.

3.32pm. Fox’s call of Utah for Obama might also have been premature (I heard it on Fox News Radio; not sure it ever appeared as called on the website). Only 13 per cent reporting and Obama leads 45-44. Presumably the Fox call was based on an exit poll.

3.29pm. Clinton leads 51-40 in Arizona with 48 per cent reporting, but nobody’s calling it.

3.25pm. Fox’s call of Tennessee for Huckabee may have been premature (they’re still saying it on Fox News Radio, but not on the website). He leads McCain 34.1 per cent to 32.4 per cent with 83 per cent of precincts reporting.

3.20pm. McCain gaining on Huckabee in Missouri: now 33-32-29, compared with 35-32-27 half an hour ago.

3.15pm. Fox calls Idaho for Obama and Missouri for Clinton.

3.15pm. Fox calls Colorado for Obama.

3.10pm. Fox says Clinton wins American Samoa, and Romney wins Montana.

3.03pm. Fox News Radio reports McCain doing better than Romney in California from absent votes, but Romney doing better in normal votes. Clinton just ahead of Obama.

3.00pm. Also not sure why nobody giving Romney North Dakota, where he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-23-21-20.

2.58pm. Not sure why nobody calling Montana for Romney: he leads McCain, Paul and Huckabee 36-24-23-17 with 89 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.53pm. Nobody calling Missouri Democratic either, but Clinton leads 53-44 with 68 per cent of precincts reporting.

2.48pm. No one is calling the Missouri Republican race: Huckabee leads McCain and Romney 35-32-27 with 66 per cent precincts reporting.

2.46pm. A couple of outlets calling Georgia for Huckabee.

2.38pm. Fox calls Arizona for McCain and Tennessee for Huckabee.

2.29pm. Fox calls Utah for Obama.

2.25pm. Minnesota being called for Obama, who seems to be picking up a lot of the smaller states. Expectations he would perform well in caucuses have apparently been confirmed, boding well for him in Colorado and Idaho.

2.21pm. Fox News Radio and CNN call Connecticut for Obama.

2.15pm. Huckabee giving a speech, and not sounding of a mind to withdraw.

2.14pm. ABC calls Kansas for Obama.

2.08pm. Fox calls Oklahoma for McCain.

2.06pm. ABC also calling Utah for Romney; no surprise of course that he should carry the Mormon state.

2.03pm. Fox News projects Obama as winner of North Dakota, giving him seven states to Clinton’s six, and Utah to Romney.

1.44pm. Romney coming third behind Huckabee in many more places than expected. Almost time to call the nomination for McCain, pending one or two larger states.

1.31pm. CNN, ABC and Fox News Radio say Obama has won Alabama, which was lineball in late polling.

1.21pm. Fox calls Alabama for Huckabee.

1.18pm. Chap on Fox News Radio says McCain has won New York.

1.09pm. Fox calls Delaware for Obama.

1.07pm. CNN calls New York for Clinton, which is no surprise.

12.55pm. Fox calls Massachusetts for Clinton.

12.54pm. Chat on Fox News Radio indicates McCain is looking very good overall.

12.50pm. Winner-takes-all Republican contest for Delaware called for McCain, which was considered likely but not certain.

12.44pm. Arkansas being called for Huckabee, who is clearly doing better than expected.

12.36pm. Tennessee also called for Clinton, which was expected.

12.35pm. CNN calls Arizona for Clinton and Huckabee. The latter would be a big surprise if accurate; polls had Clinton with only a narrow lead.

12.29pm. The Times on Democratic exit polls:

The AP survey’s findings, leaked to The Times tonight before polls closed, should be treated with caution because they have been wrong before. But the early findings showed Mr Obama winning Georgia by 74 points to 25, Alabama by 59 to 37, Illinois by 69 to 29 and Delaware by 55 to 42. He also had narrower leads, possibly within the margin of error, in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri. The poll indicated Mrs Clinton was leading by seven points in New York – less than expected – and Tennessee where she had an 11 point advantage, according to the poll. In Oklahoma and Arkansas she was shown as more than 30 points ahead. In California, she is shown just ahead, by perhaps as little as three percentage points.

12.13pm. CNN is also calling Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton on the basis of exit polling, though these of course are not winner-takes-all contests. On the Republican side, Illinois (district-level PR), Connecticut (winner takes all) and New Jersey (winner takes all) are being called for McCain, and Massachusetts (two-tier PR) for Romney. All of this is consistent with pre-poll expectations.

11.33am. Further to the previous entry: The Raw Story tells us “Geraghty’s leaks of exit poll data have not always proved accurate. For instance, his information before New Hampshire polls closed showed Senator Barack Obama defeating Senator Hillary Clinton.”

11.23am. More on exit polls from Jim Geraghty at the National Review:

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual. Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent. Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney. Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent. Now on to the NYC-metro-area states: New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent. New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent. Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent. More or less what we expected. Now the big Mitt states: The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent. I think I’m ready to call that one. Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35. But in McCain’s home state… Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8. That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected. On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee… Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent. Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23. Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19. Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27. A barnburner! Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18. Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it. Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

11.14am. Various media outlets calling Georgia for Obama purely on the basis of exit polls.

11.10am. Jason Zengerle at New Republic on exit polls:

The perils of posting these are obvious (President Kerry and all that), but the exit poll results that I’ve seen show: Obama trouncing Hillary in Georgia, Alabama, and Illinois; Hillary trouncing Obama in Arkansas and Oklahoma; Hillary with leads in New York and Tennessee; and Obama with leads in Delaware and Utah (although there’s only one wave of exit polls for Utah). Everywhere else–including Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Arizona, and California–is extremely close.

8.20am (Eastern Australian daylight time). This post will be used to cover today’s Super Tuesday developments, though I don’t promise that my coverage will be greatly timely or comprehensive. We’ll see how we go. The action will begin in earnest when polls in most of the eastern states close at 8pm US eastern time – noon eastern Australian daylight time. Polls in all-important California close three hours later. The one conspicuous exception is West Virginia, which uniquely held a state presidential convention today rather than a primary or caucuses. This has already wrapped up, resulting in Mick Huckabee securing the 18 delegates under the winner-takes-all vote. Huckabee won on the second round of voting after trailing Mitt Romney at the first by 464 votes (41 per cent) to 375 (33 per cent), with John McCain on 176 (16 per cent) and Ron Paul on 118 (10 per cent). Paul was then excluded, and at this point McCain’s supporters were reportedly instructed to throw their weight behind Huckabee to thwart Romney. This delivered victory to Huckabee with 567 (51.5 per cent) to Romney’s 521 (47.4 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,182 comments on “Super Tuesday live”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24
  1. Al #1092 CNN lists those numbers under a column headed “state delegates” rather than “votes”. That would make sense – otherwise there would only be 2,000 odd people taking part. Perhaps this is one of those caucuses where they elect reps to a state body which then elects the convention delegates.

  2. Judging from the blog entries on the NYTimes, the overall message is a resounding; “You can change managers Hillary, but you can’t change the candidate”.

    Remembering of course, that the NYT endorsed Clinton.

  3. I was right. Here’s the note appended to the NY Times version of those Maine figures:
    “Vote totals are the presidential preferences of the approximately 3,500 delegates elected to the state convention.”

  4. Whichever way it’s read, it’s bad news for Clinton, and if the Beltway goes to Obama… things certainly won’t be looking so grand for the Hillary camp.

  5. KR @ 1099 -Sometimes you make me laugh so hard…

    Last night I heard some talking head on the TV opining that it is the duty of the superdelegates to act in the best interests of the Party – NOT to listen to the popular vote. Geez!

    Meanwhile, the force that drives Obama’s appeal rolls on – that powerful desire within us to believe that what our mothers and endless reruns of Star Wars told us is true – that good people really do triumph over the politics of cynicism and self interest, that integrity, courage, honesty and openness are vital in a civil society – and that daring to believe things can be better, in spite of years of evidence to the contrary, will eventually be rewarded with triumph.

  6. I see CNN has given Maine to Obama at 58 to 41 over HillBilly. Bit of a shock there. I can hear HRC snarling from here.

    CNN has also called it for Romney over McCain – 52 to 21! Now can anyone explain to me how the good people of Maine could vote so emphatically for a guy who isn’t running?

  7. Frankly if Hillary looses Maine then she is finnished. She won’t make it to march after the next couple of primaries and if she does she will loose.

  8. Obama is now 59:41 and pulling away with 79% counted. I’d say, Scotty, that Maine has fallen to Obama. If KR is right, the monster should be well and truly drooling by now.

  9. G’day all! Nice to be checking back in here after a break!
    William and my poll bludger mates: how are you all?
    The momentum sure is with Obama!
    Hillary is literally screwed! She won’t win anything on Tuesday, or next week.
    I’d say her best opportunities for victories are in Ohio and Texas in early March, where the demographics in those two states(Latino, female, working class voters) would seem to favour her, BUT Barack is catching up fast and is almost level with her now in numbers of total delegates.
    A brokered convention would seem to be a real possibility, unless super delegates start defecting from Clinton and move over to Obama
    And it’s rumoured John Edwards will endorse Obama in the next 2 weeks!

  10. 1107
    Ferny Grover

    hey, FG, it’s a pretty arresting image isn’t it: Obama as Rippley facing off against the Alien mother, and all that adrenaline and sound effects…and…and..oh damn, I got so excited I dropped the popcorn all over the floor!

    But seriously, can you imagine Hillary Clinton conceding gracefully if she loses? I cannot, no matter how hard I try.

  11. 59:41 may as well call it 60:40 and be done with it, because that’s where Clinton was in the overall scheme of things a few short months back.

    OK, it’s only Maine, but it’s another drip, drip in the Chinese water torture of HRC’s campaign.

  12. True, KR – it’s only Maine. In terms of delegates it’s only what? 15 to BHO and 9 to HRC. But it was a state she was expected to win only a few short weeks ago. In delegate terms it means nothing. In morale terms, it’s a thumping. In momentum terms – I hear the click into 3rd gear. Barak is nowhere near top gear yet!

    The Alien is drowning – noisily – in her own spittle.

  13. 13 to 8 according to AP, but that’s not really the point is it?

    It’s the Mo, it’s the big Mo, and if Hillary’s rattled enough to snarl the horses will surely get frightened.

    What an amazing race.

  14. This is the sort of Mo, he’s getting:

    Ohio’s largest newspaper, The Cleveland Plain Dealer, carried an endorsement for Barack Obama in their newspaper today.

    ..from a blog.

  15. it seems all the lifeboats have returned to the ‘good ship barrack’

    the predicted 3/3/08 Hillary concesion day looms , when she pre-calculates that Texas & Ohio on 4/3/08 can not prevent her demise

    must we wait to open the champers ?

  16. 1127

    Come on Ron, don’t spoil the fun, let’s see the match to the end before we claim victory for one or the other! LOL

    But hey, my bet on Barack Obama is looking better every day!

    Still, it ain’t over ’till it’s over, and Clinton, as we’ve noted, will morph into something pretty scary if she gets seriously cornered.

    Now…where’s the fresh popcorn?

  17. Intrade has really moved too, with Obama almost on 70% and Clinton down the S-bend.

    Seems like the punters can smell a victory, but are they right?

  18. Ron, popping the cork now would smack of – dare I say it – hubris. Texas and Ohio are still potentially nasty icebergs for the good ship Obama. He still needs to chart a careful course through the next month.

    I doubt you’ll see Hillary conceding anything before those primaries – nor following them. Her deep sense of entitlement, fed by some powerful Dem powerbrokers, will see her hang on grimly to the end.

    The danger is that a ‘brokered convention’ will only alienate a large section of the Dem voter base and cripple the POTUS campaign for whoever is left standing. Does Hillary care? Does she have a “it’s me or nobody” attitude. I guess we’ll soon see.

  19. I guess we’re an educated bunch here… from the NY Times David Brooks…

    “Hillary Clinton is a classic commodity provider. She caters to the less-educated, less-pretentious consumer. As Ron Brownstein of The National Journal pointed out on Wednesday, she won the non-college-educated voters by 22 points in California, 32 points in Massachusetts and 54 points in Arkansas. She offers voters no frills, just commodities: tax credits, federal subsidies and scholarships. She’s got good programs at good prices.

    Barack Obama is an experience provider. He attracts the educated consumer. In the last Pew Research national survey, he led among people with college degrees by 22 points. Educated people get all emotional when they shop and vote. They want an uplifting experience so they can persuade themselves that they’re not engaging in a grubby self-interested transaction. They fall for all that zero-carbon footprint, locally grown, community-enhancing Third Place hype. They want cultural signifiers that enrich their lives with meaning”.

  20. David Brooks sounds like an Australian version of Dennis Shanahan and the NY Times is doing a good job of masquerading as the Australian.

  21. Clinton’s strategy has been hopeless which is why, no doubt, she has fired her campaign manager. First there was the attempt to paint Obama as “the black candidate” in the run up to South Carolina. The idea, no doubt, was that they could sacrifice the black vote if that ensured Obama didn’t get the white vote. That was blown away when Super Tuesday revealed that white voters were also pissed off by Bill’s antics. Then there was a decision to ignore the tiny states and concentrate on the big states. This left Obama unchallenged in places like Idaho and North Dakota. There were reports that the Clinton campaign had no presence on the ground- but Obama invariably had an office. Individually, these little states mean little. But, if you add up the delegate count from Utah, Idaho, Maine, Delaware, Nebraska, Kansas and even the Virgin Islands, it counts for something, especially if Obama could minimise Clinton’s gains in the big states (and win one or two of them himself).

  22. wayaway- I’ve seen a similar argument like that. The Obama vs Clinton battle is not best defined by white vs black, male vs female. It is best characterised by high-level education vs low-level education.

  23. With gongs like this, Diogenes, one can see why…

    Obama Edges Out a Clinton — For a Grammy
    By Ariel Alexovich

    Barack Obama, not known for his singing prowess, nevertheless picked up a Grammy Award Sunday for the spoken-word recording of his most recent book, “The Audacity of Hope.”
    Mr. Obama, seeking to become the country’s next president, beat out two former Commanders in Chief —

  24. Wow, Obama is romping home, isn’t he? Billary thought she’d have it buried on Super-Dooper-Pancake-Tuesday or whatever. She must be livid.

    But, I am seriously concerned about one thing – if its a brokered convention, or, even worse, if Obama gets up by LESS than the number of delegates Billary would have won by in Florida/Michigan – what happens then?

    Of course, Obama didn’t even run in Michigan.

    The results there were:
    Billary 55%
    Uncommitted (read: Obama) 40%
    Kucinich 4% (can probably rack them up to Obama too)

    Billary 50%
    Obama 33%
    Edwards 14%

    I am really scared of Obama taking this thing by about 50 votes – brokered convention, then Billary *really* fires up her ‘WHAT ABOUT FLORIDA’ campaign

  25. It’s risky for Hillary to bring up Florida and Michigan. The results are invalid due to the loss of delegates skewing the outcome. The primary/caucus would have to be rerun – and Hillary cannot be sure that she would win them now. The Obama ‘mo’ is on the rise and could swamp Florida and Michigan in any rerun of those contests. Big risk.

  26. Maine is now 59:40 to BHO with 95% counted. And so Obama skates away leaving a snarling, panting, drooling Alien monster far behind. Nice

  27. Imagine the media spend that’s descending on Ohio and Texas!

    Isn’t it a wonderful system? I mean, it keeps the punters pouring their hard earned into the maw of the TV networks!

    Obama has Big Mo, but in little states, lots of little states, but he’s got to chew off a chunk of the remianing bit ones.

    This race is going to be a photo finish which the stewards will have a barney over, while the punters will be outside chanting “Yes We Can”!

  28. 1145

    With about half of the Supers yet to confirm, and let’s not forget, they can change their mind right up to the Convention.

    This is an amazingly tight race, and you’ve got to hand it to Obama’s team for being smart enough to outflank Hillary with the small states, where they could get a good bang for their buck.

    I’ll bet Fortress Clinton is going into meltdown, this was not in the script they handed out last year! What are the voters thinking? Don’t they realise that Clinton is the next nominee for the Democratic Party? Sheeeeeesh!

  29. RED ALERT! RED ALERT! WE HAVE AN EMERGENCY GOIN ON! An unauthorised outbreak of democracy is happening! Last seen in Maine!!

  30. This is incredible!!!
    Obama is going to do it, isn’t he…
    I actually can’t fathom the possibility that a young moderate black man could follow on as President of the United States of America after the boorish stupidity of Bush and the neo-cons.
    Too hard to compute, but a dream come true.
    People really are surprising sometimes.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 22 23 24