Super Tuesday for dummies

225 comments on “Super Tuesday for dummies”

1. The Clinton/Obama struggle is the one to watch on so many different levels. To begin to elaborate all the angles would be exhaustive. I think Hillary will get over the line by a ‘negligible’ margin. Then what next?

   The obvious end game would be a Clinton/Obama ticket against a McCain /Huckabee ticket. Come November its Old conservative against New female/black progressives. A new historic threshold is at hand.My call is a Democrat win. The change factor will carry it!

2. 1098
   HarryH

   (from previous thread)

   Obama, as you point out, did not vote, and neither did McCain.

   (See:

   http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00349)

   But, for extra points, tell me, which of them sang:

   “bomb,bomb,bomb…bomb,bomb,bomb, I-RAN” ?

3. William, I’m disappointed in the title for this thread.

   I thought “Super Tuesday for Ignorant Loathing Lefties” would have been more in keeping with the decidely lowbrow tone we keep around here! LOL

   “Dummies” just isn’t pejorative enough, not for our special brand of ‘ignorance’.

   Can you change it?

4. I think we can put Arkansas down as a Huckabee win. He is former governor there afterall.

   Clinton should also win there as it’s really her home state despite her New York senatorship.

5. William, this is simply beautiful, and it makes me wish more people posted here to appreciate it.

   Good work.

6. beautiful ?

   has Diogenes been working on William ?

7. KR,
   i believe Mr John McCain would be the Brian Wilson wannabe. i saw it the day he sang it and the bile is still in the back of my throat.

8. KR,
   McCain co-sponsored the resolution with his pal Joe but didn’t bother turning up to vote on it. The numbers were safe.

9. guess William will take this personally rather than constructive:

   whilst the fortnightly Poll averages are terrific info , we do have an usual campaign where Obama is making a huge late surge in the last 3 to 5 days
   making the fortnightly Poll average somewhat less meaningful

   EXAMPLE California , the most delegates 370 up for grabs

   Williams fortnight average is Clinton 45/39

   but the Rasmussen Poll 2/2 48 hours ago has Clinton 44/45
   and the Suffolk Poll 3/2 24 hours ago has Clinton 40/39

   suggesting the narrowing is real close

10. 8
    HarryH

    Well done HH!

    For that neatest correctest (sic) answer, you win….(drum roll>>>)

    A personally signed edition of the bill by Joe and John, and a map of all the Iranian sites to be obliterated in President McCain’s first month of office!

    Congratulations!! A fine memento of a thoroughly mad experiment in genetically crossing a Democrat and a Republican!

11. In California, Clinton and Obama are pretty even in the polls, the intrade futures and on betfair. It is going to be an intriguing poll.

12. HarryH, the fact Obama did not turn up for the Iran ‘war’ vote
    “due to political campaigning”

    Had Clinton done so , surely we would castigate her

    Much of Obama’s support is based on the notion he is not an expedient pollie
    & presents change in leadership character…..hmmmm ..keep the faith ?

13. Beautiful work alright William, not thinking of putting out a cheap paperback on the subject are you?

14. Ron,

    in case you missed it i am criticizing Obama, although also noting that he offers SOME hope as against Hilary’s NO hope.

15. The interesting thing in the Democratic race is that it will be extremely difficult for either candidate to win by much of a majority.

    Take a state like California. All districts have between 3 and 7 delegates. In those with 4 or 6 (and there is a lot), short of a landslide they will split evenly between Clinton and Obama. The many even-numbered-delegate districts across the country will be effectively cancelled out.

    The end result is that, short of a national landslide, the Democratic race will continue onwards into March and quite possibly the very last primary.

16. RECENT POLLING VS FORTNIGHTLY AVERAGE POLLS

    gives hope for Obama in the following States vs William’s fortnight average:

    California Rasmussen Poll. 2/2 Clinton 44/45
    California new one ARG….2/2 Clinton 47/39
    California Suffolk Poll…….3/2 Clinton 40/39
    Fortnightly average……………Clinton 45/39 (without ARG very promising)

    Arizona Mason Dixon……..1/2 Clinton 43/41
    Fortnightly average………….. Clinton 42/36

    New Jersey Mason Dixon…1/2 Clinton 46/39
    New Jersey Zogby………..2/2 Clinton 43/42
    Fortnightly average………….. Clinton 48/38

    Other states recent Polls have not moved or the margin is so huge any ‘narrowing’ is irrelevant

17. on the recent Poll figures Hilliary will win tomorrow overall but not knock Obama out as many others have already said

18. A bunch of new polls are up on realclearpolitics.com.

    California: Obama +1 (Suffolk), Obama +6 (Zogby)
    New Jearsy: tie
    Gorgia: Obama +17
    Missouri: Obama +5

    Democratic Nomination: Clinton +1 (USA Today/Gallop), tie (CBS News)

19. sorry HarryH missed your blog reply , could not agree more !

20. Well, well, well…and so we march into history, but not necessarily certain, (at least, not AS certain as we once were) that HRC would sweep all opponents aside and assume her rightful place in the Democratic pantheon of dynastic certainties.

    It’s sometimes strange to watch Americans, who on the one hand had the gumption (their word!) to chuck off the colonial shackles, kick the British out of their New World, but who yet seem quaintly addicted to the idea of their very own monarchical dynasties. Mix it up with Puritannical hangovers of God’s divine purpose, Hollywood fantasies of the triumphant blasting of Good Vs Evil, and a dash of gladiator toga and sandal smiting the corrupted vileness of autocrats, and you’ve got a ripper show to accompany popcorn and cola.

    BHO Vs HRC is the quintessential American soap opera, replete with stars of bygone eras, mega stars of today’s media saturated world, and the good old elements of a Bailey and Barnum circus show.

    Welcome to the Greatest Show on Earth!

    Nobody does circus like the American political circus! And here we are, like kids at a show, lined up on our seats, agog at the highwire act of the young and lithesome Barack Obama, as he tries to steal the show from the Wonderful Hillary, lion tamer, husband tamer, and trapeze artiste extraordinare! Watch how she sommersaults, turns and twists, and all the while manages to never drop into the net so far below!

    And here’s Obama, the strippling youth, with flaming torch being tossed high as he works his way across the thin tight wire, so high, so amazingly high, you can hear the crowd draw breath at every step!

    It’s all elephants and donkeys and more money than we ever meant to spend, but somehow, it’s enthralling, and we cannot take our eyes off it.

21. Thank you William. Being a dummy, this thread makes this noxious weed of a system clearer – to a certain extent…
    Who can fathom exactly why it was set up this way – let alone exported as a model of functionable democracy?
    Makes me Thank The Heavens Above that we live under our system…

22. #20 KR its simply prose – don’t ever stop.

23. A preview of the calm before the storm …

    From Hillarys bucker:

    Hillary will hold a “Solutions for America” roundtable in Connecticut and lead a “Solutions for America” rally and a Get Out the Vote phone bank in Massachusetts… Hillary will also appear on Entertainment Tonight, Inside Edition, EXTRA, the CBS Evening News, and the Late Show with David Letterman. Bill will hold “Solutions for America” rallies in Santa Ana, Sacramento, Stockton and Sam Francisco, California. Chelsea will meet with students in Delaware and visit New Jersey and Connecticut.

    From the Obama camp:

    Barack Obama heads to East Rutherford NJ in the morning, then down to Hartford CT for an afternoon stump, following by Boston MA in the evening. Michelle will also appear at an event in Tucson, Arizona.

24. And as morning breaks across the northern states …

    Wall Street Journal, “The Obama Opportunity”
    Washington Post, “Obama vs. the Phobocracy”
    Chicago Tribune, “Why I Back Barack Obama”
    Los Angeles Times, “Maria Shriver Endorses Barack Obama”
    New York Times, “Michelle, Maria, Caroline and Oprah on the Hustings in California”
    Chicago Sun Times, “Star Power for Obama in LA”
    Boston Herald, “Obama for the Dems”
    Houston Conicle, “Keillor, Michelmen back Obama”
    New York Post, “Hillary’s Loosing Women”
    Wall Street Journal, “Obama closes in on Clinton…”
    The New York Times, “Inspired by Obama, Filmmaker takes on Politics”

25. It had to happen …
    Hillary Clinton cries in Connecticut

    Penn Rhodeen, who was introducing Clinton, began to choke up, leading Clinton’s eyes to fill with tears, which she wiped out of her left eye. At the time, Rhodeen was saying how proud he was that sheepskin-coat, bell-bottom-wearing young woman he met in 1972 was now running for president.

    4th February 2008 – in time for the evening edition

26. With a few updates to the Zino engine …

    Alabama 0
    Alaska -5
    Arizona 2
    Arkansas 30
    California -2
    Colorado -3
    Connecticut -2
    Delaware 2
    Georgia -15
    Idaho 30
    Illinois -21
    Kansas -10
    Massachusetts 15
    Minnesota 15
    Missouri 1
    New Jersey -7
    New Mexico -8
    New York 14
    North Dakota 0
    Oklahoma 23
    Tennessee 33
    Utah -23

    Generating Clinton at 922 (51.11%) and Obama with 882 (48.89%), a difference of just over 2% in favor of the dynasty – i.e. we are heading into a season 2 – staring Barack (best leading man), Hillary (the leading lady), and Bill (best supporting actor).

27. William, don’t see why “dummies” should get all the remedial attention. Here’s a little something for the Complete Cretin.

    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=105

    The deadpan humour of Bob “Charisma Bypass” Benenson and team will amuse hardcore pol. junkies while providing useful instruction to those challenged by the arcane machinations of “the greatest democracy on earth”.

28. Four cautions about the Super Tuesday Polling.

    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/february_5_polls_four_cautions.php

29. Nice link EC. Fits in well with most of the “informed” comment here.

    steve @28, I saw the name Adam in the comments section making an impactful contribution. Wonder if that was our very own Dr Adam Carr?

30. GG, I do believe it is a high probability.

31. This ought to clinch it for Obama. How can you go wrong when you have will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas on board?:

    “Obama’s strong support among younger voters was given another shot of street cred over the weekend when rapper will.i.am of group The Black Eyed Peas posted an unofficial campaign video on Youtube.
    The video features celebrities including Scarlett Johansson and Herbie Hancock singing along to excerpts from an Obama speech.” (SMH)

    Think of the ‘street cred’ you could garner with a couple of dots in your name too William B. You’d have to put them in different places though so as not to be confused with will.i.am. How about: W.illia.m?

32. So – what happens to the delegates that are tied to a presidential nominee that has withdrawn (such as Giuliani or Edwards)? Do they still turn up to the national conventions and vote for the nominee despite their withdrawal, or do they change their vote to the person who the withdrawn candidate nominates?

    Sorry if this is a dumb question for some, I’ve not turned up an answer on this one.

33. William

    My compliments on your lead in with the clearest, simplest explanation of what is at stake in each contest I have read anywhere. It leaves the MSM for dead.

    As for predictions, regardless of what my heart my wish for, I think Clinton will win. Again, looking at her poll lead in the big (i.e. many delegate) NE states, unless Obama can pull off California she must be the winner. With Edwards dropping out early the number of third party delegates to negotiate over is actually going to wind up fairly small. So a win today will see Hillary Clinton get the democrat nomination IMO.

    Obviously, barring major scandal McCain has the Republican one sewn up.

    As for the November contest, unless an economic miracle happens (which is beyond George Bush’s ability to deliver anyway) the US will be in recession and still in Iraq, and any half competent Democrat will win. Looks like Hillary.

34. 28
    steve Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 8:21 am
    Four cautions about the Super Tuesday Polling.

    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/february_5_polls_four_

    the site certainly canvasses the Polls at different depths with a surprising ‘surge’ of Democrat voters vs 2004.

    Wonder whether this is a reflection of Senator Kerry 04 or Obama 07

    Is this the Hip hop wrapper Barbarians vote fighting back against the Christians

35. Ron, the figures look just as good in tabular form as they did in graphs yesterday afternoon.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/4/13564/87220/932/449601

36. Being VP is pretty meaningless, Cheney is the great exception. Either Hillary or Obama would rather stay in the Senate where they would be crucial to getting legislation through and where some moderate Republicans will have to be brought on side to reach 60 votes to break a filibuster.
    How many millions of Americans will vote to chose the nominees, how many Australians selected Rudd over Beazley or Nelson over Turnbull? Makes the US look good but then again remember Florida in 2000.

37. yes the tabular form is concise

    surprising variances in some Polls for same States ?

    Fortunately for Obama he cann’t get knocked out in Super Tuesday & still can win the Nominee Steve as the delegates gained are proportional to votes in each congressional district and each state (unlike the Republican system)

38. Right, it is early morning US time, day before voting begins.

    Anyone want to make a prediction as to whether a ‘big’ endorsement is made today to take the news cycle?

    I don’t know if endorsements are made on the last day of campaigning, it strikes me as the wrong time and risks changing the message from what the candidate wants. However, in somebody was to endorse Obama, it would add to his only current message: momentum is mine.

    I keep wondering about Edwards, because the more you think about it the more his decision seems strange. Will he endorse somebody today, at the 11th hour? Him endorsing somebody after Super Tuesday makes little sense, as by staying in he could have done that anyway – only with a few hundred delegates to boot as well.

    Predictions?

39. the Stats indicate Edwards supporters tend to support obama whic since his withdrawal may accunt for some of Obama’s late increase

    yes Max , the non endorsement is politically strange on leverage grounds as you’d hardly think he thinks the Candidates are equal.

    A cynic may attribute some advantages in saying nothing ?

40. well max , a week ago on this site when Hillary was well ahead in Cal. etc I predicted 49& overall Obama & a 50 delegate shortfall

    that was based on significant accelerating mean trends lines since Dec. to Obama (+ with some optimism) but a few national Polls seemed to knock by prediction for six

    The last few days Polls in some States are showing an even more dramatic
    mean trend to Obama which statistically is abit questionable but does support a possible 50 delegate shortfall to Obama…and a masive momentum springboard

    Daidoff has done some very indepth analysis overnight & shows a similar Obama %

41. If Edwards was going to endorse anyone he’d have done it by now. A week ago the press was reporting that Gore was considering endorsing Obama after Super Tuesday. Strange timing – unless Obama is confident of matching Hillary tomorrow and wants to save some ammunition for the final push.

42. The big concern for Obama, in California especially, is the high percentage of primary voters who vote early. Up to 20% of voters may have voted back when Clinton still had a big lead. The one saving grace would be if the percentage of voters voting early is less than expected due to the expected massive increase in participation. Early voting is the sort of thing you’d expect of the usual crowd of rusted on politically aware types who normallly have primaries to themselves.

43. Very informative. I didn’t realize how complicted the delegate system can be but and this really helps me to understand it better.

44. FG @ 39 – That must be the situation I think. Obama has plenty of momentum just now, and believes he can stay in the race after today’s votes given the narrowing, so the big endorsements can be held back for when some new impetus is needed in the months before the convention.

    Steve @ 28 – I just cannot believe the variation in the polls in some states. Look at California – 3 combined polls have it 46/40 to Obama but Survey USA has it 41/53 in Clinton’s favour. Someone is very wrong – what questions are they asking?
    Similar in Massachussets -Suffolk poll has Obama up 46/44 but Survey USA has him down 39/56.
    Maybe Survey USA is owned by the Clintons.

45. JV I would think that most of the variance would be because of the huge pool of undecideds who are still making up their minds. Swinging voters are notorious for wanting to run with the last pollie they heard from but not being quite sure.

46. Some of those voter turnout figures from last elections are atrocious too. Tomorrow will see a lot of voters who have been totally disengaged in previous elections. California itself has moved forward in the year and turned itself from a nothing primary into a vital state.

47. Steve- Do you agree a big turnout of Democrats is more likely to assist Obama?

48. 44 In states like California

49. If they are young, they undoubtedly will.

50. Here’s the interesting guts of an article by Walter Shapiro in Salon, one for the tragics, and those of us ‘dummies’ who need more edjamacatin’:

    Georgia — The first returns of the night will begin to roll in when the polls close at 7 p.m. (EST). While no one will be proclaiming, “As Georgia goes, so goes the nation,” it will be illuminating to see if Obama attracts anything like the 78 percent of the African-American vote as he did in neighboring South Carolina. In South Carolina, John Edwards (who has since dropped out) finished first among white men, with 44 percent in a three-way race. It will be worth watching how Georgia now splits in a race between a woman and an African-American.

    Alabama and Tennessee — The polls here close at 8 p.m. (EST) and these states should quickly indicate whether the trends from the Georgia exit polls can be extrapolated through the South.

    Illinois — Obama’s home state (8 p.m. EST closing time) should not offer much suspense about the outcome. But this is another place where it would be worth watching to see how white male Democrats split their vote in downstate Illinois.

    Massachusetts — At 8 p.m. (EST) we will also get a quick test of the power of endorsements. From Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry to Gov. Deval Patrick, this state has become the launching pad of Obama campaign surrogates. But Massachusetts also has a vibrant blue-collar Democratic tradition — and Clinton’s performance among lower-income voters could be a bellwether for the evening.

    Connecticut — The candidates’ own polls clearly indicated that Connecticut is up for grabs, since both Clinton and Obama were campaigning in the state Monday. (The best way to read a campaign’s strategy is to watch where they send the candidate.) With the polls closing at 8 p.m. (EST), we should know fast the power of Obama-mania in Clinton’s backyard. Working against Obama is that this is a primary open only to registered Democrats.

    New Jersey — Results from the fourth largest delegate haul of the evening will start coming in at 8 p.m. EST. Since independents can vote in the Garden State (unlike New York and Connecticut), we will soon know whether Obama is demonstrating his crossover appeal to these swing voters.

    Arizona — At 9 p.m. (EST) we will get our first look at the Latino vote in a primary out West. If Clinton does not roll up a large margin among this group in Arizona, it does not bode well for California, where the polls close at 11 p.m. (EST).

    Minnesota — While it is always difficult to draw larger conclusions from caucuses (since only a fraction of registered Democrats participate), Minnesota has perhaps the most vibrant caucus tradition in the Democratic Party, aside from Iowa. The caucus voting should be over by 9 p.m. EST — and we should get another snapshot of how Obama is doing among party activists.

    By the time we finally learn what happened in American Samoa (either Clinton or Obama will presumably come out with a 2-to-1 majority in the caucuses), our attention will probably have shifted to next Tuesday’s Potomac primary with Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia all voting Feb. 12. Even though a numerical majority of Democratic delegates will have been selected by the time the final returns trickle in on Wednesday, the real Super Duper Party Pooper Tuesday may come on March 4 when Texas and Ohio hold primaries that could (note the conditional) select the nominee.

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