D-day minus 8

• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.

• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.

• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.

• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,

• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.

• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.

• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.

• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.

• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

641 thoughts on “D-day minus 8”

Comments Page 2 of 13
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  1. William

    Couldn’t you apply for some $$ under the regional partnerships program? You never know, you may already have been approved without even putting in an application.

    I put some money in your online busker’s tin. Hope it helps.

    Maybe you should use what you get to stick on a few bets. Something like Mitchell or Bradfield would be fun.

  2. Labor should just stick to the tactics that have gotten them to this position: remain positive, point out that their promises are affordable (unlike some people’s) and meanwhile screen ads repeating Abbott’s comments. They prove everything the unions have said about Workchoices are right, hence yes they are gold.

  3. Some interesting things in the Newspoll breakdown today:

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768219-2,00.html

    * That the ALP has suddenly had a surge in support in Victoria. Unfortunately as we all need to know it has to stay that high to actually deliver new seats to Labor. Not sure why things have turned around there recently.

    * That support in the over-50s appears to be increasing for the ALP.

    * That the ALP is starting to struggle in SA, and is looking at only getting half of the seats realistically up for grabs.

  5. Terrific to see the surge in support for the Greens in the ACT in the Morgan breakdown too.

    Kerrie Tucker may just get there this time.

  6. Ray Martin on Radio National breakfast pannel today:

    “Every election has a goose, and Tony Abbott has been the biggest of all the geese”.

  8. Misty. Avoid reading articles by Dennis Shanahan. There’s no real need to worry. It’s likely that things haven’t changed significantly from state to state and it’s mostly sampling.

  9. 47 pancho
    I just heard this interview as I was on my way to work. I thought it was incredibly impressive – he came across as someone with great integrity and conviction (resigned from all his jobs and directorships when he started this campaign in order to avoid conflicts of interest), and spoke eloquently about how much of the business community is far ahead of Howard on sustainability issues and are concerned that his lack of leadership is squandering business opportunities as well as endangering the planet. Virginia could barely get a word in! It will be interesting to see what effect this has in Bennelong.

  12. The ALP support in Newspoll remains at healthy levels. If the Statewide swing of 5.4% is realised in Kalgoorlie, Sharon Thiel will be within 1%. The donkey vote, plus Campbell’s absence, may get her over the line. ‘Labor View from Broome’

  13. Bushfire Bill @ # 20.

    It is prudent to be cautious but one can be over cautious.

    The argument put forward by the “pundits” on the 7.30 Report last night was that the timing of the latest opinion poll was most favourable for Howard. It was mostly taken after the Liberals Launch but before Labor’s Launch. It was also before the Auditor Generals Report and Mr Abbot’s statement regarding the effect of WorkChoices on workers.

    Now unless you are arguing that all these other events (ie the Labor’s Launch, the Auditor General’s Report and Abbot’s pronouncement) are negatives for the ALP then all things being even this is the best that Howard can expect.

    I would have thought that the worst that the ALP could expect in these circumstances is the continuance of its lead in the polls.

  15. The cumulative poll still shows a wipeout for the Coalition… on my calculations it’s not unreasonable that the ALP could win up to 98 seats on those figures.

    For the Coaltion to be in with a chance they need to hope for more than a narrowing. They need to hope the polls are just plain wrong.

  16. As the results on the night will be stagered, once they start counting at 6pm in NSW, Vic, Tas, if it looks like 7 or more then we are home.
    then the automatic 3 kick in in SA giving us 10 and then we just need another 6 from Qu, Nt, and WA.
    I can’t see us missing out and this Auditor general reoport has now given all the government friendly press to jump on board and not look like a goose for just switching sides. they will be destroyed.

  17. JULIA Gillard has hit out at Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey after he admitted Australians are being confronted with “take it or leave it” AWAs.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22744455-5013964,00.html

    Abbott was just copying Hockey when he said workers could leave their present job and get a new one if they didn’t like it. Hockey said exac;ty the same if they didn’t like the AWA presented to them they should get another job.

    Both Hockey and Abbott speak of the govt’s deregulated approach.

    Deregulated is just another word for lazy, it means a free for all and no rules, regulations to administer. It means the Ministers can sit back and do nothing.

  18. How many swingers are going to roll into the booth intending to vote Labor, then change their mind for the old, “trusted” libs at the last minute. Tell me I’m worried for nothing.

  20. William this site is fantastic, extremely addictive, extremely informative, and the best damn fun that anyone can have in an election campaign.
    I will chip in too. I would love to meet some of the great minds of this site. We should use code “nuntucket sleigh ride” if we run into fellow bludgers.

  21. LTEP @ 65

    It is dillusional to think that the polls will translate into the equal loss of seats.

    This is going to be close because Labor has a lot of seats to make up to win government.

    I’ll be happy that we will have a majority of one but at best I think it will be a majority of 5

    What will take away from our win will be the lunatic left fringe of the Greens controlling the Senate

  22. The pork-rorts affair is just another nail in the coffin for the coalition, we won’t get any movement from it just it will help cement those ‘soft-Labor’ voters. This is a sign of how complacent this government has come, and they can’t take the high moral ground saying ‘Ros Kelly used her whiteboard’ because that was over a decade ago.

    BTW, anyone see that before the last election there was over $3m in regional grants awarded within 51mins an hour or 2 before the government was to go in to caretaker mode? Talk about rorting!

    I’m going to make sure my partner sees all this. He is still leaning to the Liberals.

  23. Another of Abbott’s, Hockey’s and Andrew’s favourite sayiong about Work Choices was that employees could trust employers to do the right thing by them.

    It is on par with Greiner when he removed the need for used car dealers to provide a warranty, Greiner said “consumer would work out which dealers were trying to sell them a dud and avoid them”.

  25. Misty,

    LTEP is right. Dennis struggles mightly with understanding the concept of sampling error and then gives up and falls in line with the talking points memos he receives from his handlers. The SA number is probably an outlier one way. Victoria the other way.

    The ongoing SNAFU at police command in Victoria and continuing nightmares with DOCS cases in NSW would be good material for a “see what labor governments can screw up” narrative. But, it’s not clear if the Libs still have a grip on that thread. Abbott would normally be the point man on that but after his recent form, well, yikes.

  26. Misty said

    “* That the ALP has suddenly had a surge in support in Victoria. Unfortunately as we all need to know it has to stay that high to actually deliver new seats to Labor. Not sure why things have turned around there recently.”

    Not sure if the vote in Vic did decline and then has risen. I suspect there were a couple of samples that had Vic at the low end of the MOE. I think this pick-up is just mean reversion.

    I still think Victorian, bless them, will produce the highest 2PP vote for Rudd.

  27. How dare people criticise Greg Combet?

    This man has sacrificed heaps and graciously deigned to give up the nice cafe lifestyle of Melbourne to come to Newcastle, and now people dare to criticise him for choosing a nice million dollar beachside home rather than live in the electorate?

    I say phooey to them – poor bogans from Charlton are lucky to have a man of pure crystal to represent them, I hear he is even planning to distribute christmas hams and turkeys to the serfs in the main strip (The Esplanade) after the election. These people should be grateful not critical.

  28. Just chipped in my $50 because this site rocks – I plan to lurk here for many elections to come.

    With Williams blessing (if he so desires) and assistance I am also happy to give anyone who kicks into the fund to keep the site going a lovely orange t-shirt.

    Of course it comes with a catch – they are emblazoned with the ‘Your rights at work – worth voting for’ slogan. Also in my office are badges, stickers, pencils (ideal for filling in voting slips) etc. All of which I am happy to provide as long as people wear them on the big day or over the next few days to promote the cause.

    The numbers on some of these things are limited, but I have at least 20 of them sitting in front of me now, in various sizes.

    With Workchoices consistently being raised as a big issue, a sea of orange may just keep the nervous nelly voters honest on the day!

  29. Hmmmm, if we can trust people to “do the right thing”, then let’s do away with police, regulatory bodies, treaties and defence forces. Anarchy! What a dumb line for the Liberal goons to run.

  30. ACNielson are the masters:

    1998 average of last few polls was about ALP 51 – result ALP 51
    2001 average of last few polls was about ALP 48 – result ALP 49
    2004 average of last few polls was about ALP 47 – result ALP 47
    2007 average of last few polls likely to be about ALP 53-54 – result ??

    ACN was the only major poll to predict Labor’s poor showing in 2004 properly. That doesn’t bode well for Team Rodent.

    It seems absurd that Labor can do any worse than 52 from here.

  33. Abbot’s strategy is an interesting one – increase his prospects of becoming opposition leader by reducing the field in the post-election leadership ballot. He must fancy his chances against Tuckey, Downer and Bishop B.

  38. Asanque,

    I didnt think anyone here read the GG? Are you a closet reader? You just need to look more closely if you are unfamiliar with the site!!!

  40. According to ABC Radio: internal polling in North Sydney is worrying Joe Hockey.
    Wow!

    He is apparent both alert AND alarmed!!!

    This may or may not be illegal under the Anti-Terror (Fridge Magneting Our Way To Victory) Act 2003 (Cth).

  41. Re Joe Hockey being worried – great to hear!

    The treeware version of the SMH has a letter from a North SYdney Young Liberal urging voters to punish John Howard if they so wish, but don’t blame everyone on the team.

    Of course as Minister for IR, it’s a hard line to run that people annoyed by Workchoices shouldn’t blame you.

  42. Ha ha, BV! I sure hope the Mad Monk is well and truly medicated on election night

    I can just see him lumbering into the tally room and foaming at the mouth unless he pops some pills!

  43. Here it is:

    http://www.smh.com.au/letters/?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

    Ten years or so back I attended Joe Hockey’s first fund-raiser when he decided to enter federal politics. At the time I thought he was too young and inexperienced. Those 10 years have turned him into a worthy representative for the people of North Sydney. You might not like John Howard, but why throw out the whole team when there are plenty of younger, experienced and hardworking replacements coming up through the ranks? Why change the entire government and risk electing a group of inexperienced and unproven politicians simply because you might be disenchanted with the actions of one soon-to-retire leader?

    Mark T. SmithLiberal Party Member Neutral Bay

  46. Just realised (probably the last one in the world) that you can manually enter swings of more than 10% in the url on Antony’s site.

    What fun!

  47. Has anyone noticed that the $328M bribe to keep the Rodent in power is almost the same amount as the $300M bribe to keep Saddam Hussein in power?

  50. George Newhouse pulled out of this morning’s SKY telecast in Bennelong.
    David Spears on ABC radio in Sydney salivating over Turnball being reelected in Bennelong.
    Rudd and the Rodent both in WA today.

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