Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7

Reuters has released a new Poll Trend result, a weighted aggregate of the past week’s Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen polls. It shows the first increase in Labor support since the campaign began, to 55.3-44.7 from 55.0-45.0 last week. Both parties are down on the primary vote, Labor from 47.4 per cent to 46.9 per cent and the Coalition from 40.8 per cent to 39.9 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 55.3-44.7”

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  1. i think the world would end if JWH is returned!! the rapture would occur

    at least i am ahead of other candidates at Centrebet in the seat i am standing in

  2. 650 Jake. This sounds a bit like a love-in because on reflection I partly agree with you.
    I don’t think people necessarily see the coalition as having been a ‘bad’ government, rather one that was too mean and sneaky, with a leader whose word was definitely not his bond!
    I feel that as early as 2001, and maybe even 1998, the electorate wanted to chasten Howard, how else to explain the high ALP TPP polls 12 months out from the elections, which proceeded to fall in an almost linear fashion (a few hiccoughs like Tampa and 9/11 notwithstanding until the relevant election)?
    I happen to think that on those occasions (1998,2001 and 2004) the electorate, possibly reluctantly came to the conclusion that the opposition was not capable of forming a satisfatory government (or perhaps that it, the electorate, had little faith in the ALP leader of the day). Hence I think that the electorate chose to stay with a government that it really didn’t like rather than risking a change. Somewher I think there’s a message here for all political parties -choose your leader very carefully!!

  3. 678 – Jake.

    My experience of law exams tells me that they are the same as al other uni exams in humanities subjects:

    Just tell ’em what they want to hear, and walk away with a comfortable pass or better!

  4. ESJ 677. I think if Cornes gets in, she will be viewed much like Jackie Kelly, than in with Combet, Shorten and co.

    If she wins in 2010, then she might be in for a parli sec role, but I doubt it.

    The line is pretty long…

    BUt we are probabyl getting waaaaaaaayy ahead of ourselves.

  5. [ #564
    Mr Squiggle Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 10:01 pm

    Paul K

    Not many people can confuse me with just six words, none of the six lewd rude or crude

    Can you please elaborate ]
    Mr Squiggle,

    Sorry I’ve been away from the computer. Re: my comment at #554. I was just mucking around and messing with you. A silly attempt at humour.

  6. I see it’s Madame Mesmer, Julie Bishop vs Stephen Smith on Lateline.

    That woman’s a cack. Looks like a cobra in twin-set and pearls. And the stuff that comes out of her mouth: “We’ll Tony, we already have computers in schools. Every child in every school has access to one, they have their own account codes and can just log-on…”

    What she doesn’t say is that while every kid at Monte Sant’ Angelo might have a personal computer, the munts at Blacktown High won’t. They’ll have the pleasure of queing-up to use one of the handfull available in the library.

    And she probably reckons they should be bloody grateful for the privilege, too.

    Smith should really call her on this, but probably won’t.

  7. El N 704

    It did indeed. The introduction of workchoices and the begining of the Your Rights At Work campaign is exactly when the polls turned. I have all the TV footage and newsclippings to prove it.

    Greg Combet lead the only credible opposition to Howard for months until Rudd came on the scene and the ALP picked it up form there.

  8. Evan,

    Don’t bother watching – it’s dry and dull and a whole heap of regurgitated spin from the both of them.

    Tony Jones is pretty annoying as well…

  9. 677 ESJ- I can assure you that I do not know a single member of the Labor party (and I certainly am not).
    I think your questions can be answered by comparing what’s happened to Cornes with Mia Handshin. Their candidacy was announced as a duo. They have both written articles frequently in the local papers, both are youngish women, neither are “traditional Labor”, both are “celebrities” and both are very attractive (don’t see it in Cornes myself but Handshin is gorgeous).
    They have had diametrically opposite receptions from the public. Handshin performed very well when questioned and Cornes was terrible. First impressions are hugely important. Celebrity candidates get the benefit of high profile but it’s a two-edged sword. Handshin is very popular and will do very well (may not quite win). Cornes will not do well. It really just came down to winning over the huge press focus on them. One did it, and so the media moved on, and the other became blood-sport.

  10. From the ‘Communist Maifesto’ (1848):

    The feudal system of industry, in which industrial production was monopolized by closed guilds, now no longer suffices for the growing wants of the new markets.

    Sounds like the mega-union period of the lat 20C to me.

  11. ESJ @677 – some truth in the difficulty of outsiders fitting in to the factional culture – especially after a big win. The factional urging will be on.

    A local (to me) example of a woman candidate supported by a powerbroker is the ALP candidate in Robertson, Belinda Neal. You could have knocked me down with a feather when this dead-set dud got the guernsey. She has had more starts than Zoom Top, but as a proven failure at everything she has done as a member/candidate before, she is paraded out again. You really have to marvel at the arrogance of the NSW machine. I have had a bet in just about every winnable seat for the ALP, but cannot back her. Robertson could be one they don’t pick up because she is too well known around the electorate for what she is, even among the politically ignorant. Jim Lloyd must be thanking his lucky stars, although talking about duds …

  12. Brian Courtice is one of the true gentlemen of Australian politics.

    For his courage he should be praised.

    For Labor’s disgusting intimidatory politics they stand condemned.

  13. Arbie Jay 693

    I agree with all that, and there is another great danger if Howard were relected – it would mean he would retain absolute control of the Senate, thanks to the vote of the Self First senator and the probable defeat of the four Democrats. In other words, it would be another three years of Howard doing whatever he liked, no Upper House scrutiny, no information emerging from Senate committees. Who knows what he would do? For that matter, would we even find out?

    This is why the fear campaign of wall-to-wall Labor governments is such a massive lie, even by Howard standards. States can’t stop the Federal government, as the High Court decided years ago. Only the Senate can be a break. If Rudd wins he will still have to deal with the Greens, Independants and any surviving Democrats to negotiate legislation through. But if Howard wins, its open slather. Again. Last time that happened, his first use of the power was Workchoices, the IR system designed by lawyers for lawyers.

  14. Ok, the Libs are obviously going to go for the “blackhole” arguement in the computer for every kid policy. So do you think the ALP would have made sure its costings were accurate? What would they have to back it up (hopefully more than a picture of Swan at a desk with a big calculator)

    Would be a stupid time to actually have a real blackhole (as oppossed to one Costello tries to sell as existing)

  15. Dave,
    In your union office ie people whose wages are paid by the union, how many have actually worked in the industries in which your union purports to represent workers?

  16. #680, my sister and family have moved into the electorate of Curtin and they are definitely not voting for Bishop! Still working on other relatives in WA.

  17. Everyone looked tired, even our Tony seemed bored sh#tless….god bless him…maybe it was just that moron minister of education, Christ she’s dumb…..probably sahring a braincell with Albrechtsen

  18. Isabella, I don’t doubt he is a true gentleman. But so what? 99% of the population wouldn’t know him from Adam.

    If you are going to use someone as your advocate you don’t want to first have to build up brand recognition (especially 10 days out).

  19. Thanks Socrates

    I forgot about the Seante, even if there is a vote against libs in the senate at this election Howard still has a majority until July nxt year when the new senators take up their terms.

    Plenty of time to get rid of the Fairness Test, pass legislation for the Nuclear Power station sites,change the funding arrangments on health and privatise the water resources. He could do a lot in six months with control of the senate.

  20. 719 Would be a stupid time to actually have a real blackhole (as oppossed to one Costello tries to sell as existing)

    Grog, Labor have got Access Economics checking out all their figures so I don’t think that there will be anymore than hollow bluster from $weetie.

  21. Just watched Bishop and Smith, knew I should have gone to bed earlier – another wasted 15 mins of my life. WTF was JB smiling about? Had she dropped an e?

  22. Evan

    Unfortunately Smith is yet to wake up and realise, oh chitt thats right, Im a politician with a portfolio-dohh.

    Whatsername does have really weird eyes though: I saw a picture of her in a primary school class today and it creeped me out. Poor woman can not help how God blessed her physically, but she needs an enima to get that sour puss look off her face and Smith needs to go to personality 101 at the local finishing school.

  23. thanks steve – just wondered – I went on the ALP site and it had the budget “fully funded and costed”, but I just wondered if they had more than a slogn to back it up (assumed they would). Afterall even “the best” economic managers can have blackholes in their policies… (ahhh 1987…)

  24. Jaundiced view,

    BN is not Robinson Crusoe in that regard.

    Look at the women has in the NSW Lower House – look how many of them are “connected” through blood ties to ALP powerbrokers?

    In the Eastern Suburbs wealthy men buy their girlfriend or wife an art gallery or something in the ALP they provide a seat including one famous B&D exponent who sought a seat for his now wife which one wag described as a sore seat for a safe seat.

  25. Arbie Jay 729

    Exactly right – with FF Senator Fielding in his pocket, if Howard wins he could do anything till June next year. Not only Workshoices, but media legislation (buy a mogul with the policies Helen Coonan has already flagged), Telstra sale?, and will we ever find out what the truth was about Haneef, AWB and many other scandals?

  26. Dave55,

    I think Julie Bishop was smiling at her luck that her opposition counterpart is the seriously uninsipiring Stephen Smith rather than a more competant alternative (I’m thinking Gillard, Roxon, Swan, etc.)

    She’s probably the luckiest frontline cabinet minister around in that regard…

  27. [In the Eastern Suburbs wealthy men buy their girlfriend or wife an art gallery or something in the ALP they provide a seat including one famous B&D exponent who sought a seat for his now wife which one wag described as a sore seat for a safe seat.]

    When’s the last time the Liberals were in government in NSW? Just wondering.

  28. No 738

    There are some incredibly hilarious videos of Bishop on youtube. She can be good in parliament when she’s on a roll.

    Much better than Gillard’s loathesome yokel.

  29. Paul K,

    Thats what your going to get for the next 1 or 2 terms under Rudd? It aint going away.


    No answer – I take it your union has no one who has actually worked on the shop floor – figures.


    If your so keen to discuss people’s looks why dont you post a photo of yourself on the site? Id be happy to provide commentary on your physical comeliness

  30. Re lateline tonight – Smith wasn’t as much of a rooster as I’d thought he’d be, and Bishop, well, where to begin, she thinks the Libs have splashed money around in education because she see two of everything, the cross-eyed twit.

  31. I was just looking at the betting odds for all QLD seats.
    OMG: it seems Labor has a chance of winning Dickson, Petrie and even Fisher.
    The Coalition’s chances of hanging on to Bonner, Moreton and Blair seem to be fading fast. For example, the Liberals now at $9.00 in Bonner

  32. Just a word to stick up for Julie Bishop. The appearance of her eyes is almost certainly due to thyroid disease (Grave’s Disease). It causes staring, a widened gaze and exophthalmos (poppy eyes). It normally occurs in middle aged women.

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