Senate and Page polls

Morgan has published a survey of Senate voting intention aggregated from its polling over October. As usual the minor party figures look a little inflated, while major party support reflects the slight improvement the Coalition seems to have managed during the campaign. We also have a poll of 300 voters in Page conducted by Grafton’s Daily Examiner and Lismore’s Northern Star, which they stress is “not intended to be scientifically accurate”. It shows Labor’s Janelle Saffin with a decisive primary vote lead over Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis, 44 per cent to 41 per cent. A poor level of recorded support for the Greens is not of interest in itself, but it elicits an admission from candidate Theo Jongen that the party’s vote is “running at six per cent”, compared with 10.8 per cent in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Senate and Page polls”

Comments Page 4 of 20
1 … 3 4 5 … 20

  1. Lefty, if Linda Burney and various secretaries are backing it up, and it is a smear campaign, to borrow from Joe Hockey, it looks like this smear campaign is based on fact.

  2. Steve

    Most of the sites for Howard Nuclear power plants will be sited on Commonwealth land or land bought by the government from business, this minimises any challenge by the states to the High Court.

    Darwin will get one reactor and the ACT two, Howard can do what he wants with territory land as shown by the intervention in the NT.

    Kingston in SA will probably get two on the oil refinery site, saves on clean up costs. Badgerys creek in NSW is another good site as it is held by the commonwealth.

    As for other sites look for where the governmetn has commonwealth land, this is why Howard has held off an audit and release of defence land for housing purposes.

    What Howard and the libs need to explain is their compensation policy for home owners next to the identified sites as values will plumment as soon as the sites are identified.

    The sites will be identified within the next two years as Howard has said the establishment of the nuclear power industry is one thing he wants cemented in place before he retires.

  3. The timing of this election (in uni holidays and schoolies week, but not general school holidays) means that the demographics of pre-poll and postal voters will be different to what we’re used to – experience with Victorian elections (which are always in late November now) is that the Greens do very well on pre-polls and postals, and the former strong advantage that the Liberals had over Labor has disappeared (at least in urban seats). There’s also a bit of a ‘sitting member’ factor which could be better described as ‘candidate with highest profile’ factor (Cheryl Kernot was saved by pre-polls and postals the first time she ran).

    In some rural seats the pre-polls and postals come largely from outlying properties and will strongly favour the Liberals/Nationals (but then in the really remote ones, like Lingiari, Kalgoorlie and perhaps Grey and Leichhardt, they will come from Aboriginal communities and strongly favour Labor).

    As for Wentworth, voters tend to take a dim view of by-elections caused by challenges on legal technicalities – remember Lindsay? (There was an even more spectacular example in the UK after the 1997 election, where the Conservatives successfully challenged the result in a seat they lost by 2 votes, and lost the consequent by-election by something like 22,000).

  4. I think you will find that this time round the Liberals will do anything to survive. They’ve got advice from the masters ‘The Republican Party’ – never let a vote against you keep you out of Government.

    So, what if George Newhouse has an paid advisory position that meets on a Tuesday after the second full moon of a month when that Tuseday is the Third Tuesday of a Month ending in ‘h’ – maybe he forgot!

    What about all MPs aren’t they in the employ of the Crown. Infact many of them would have an involvement with consulting companies advising Companies on dealing with Government – these positions should also fall into the scope of ‘Office of Profit’.

    The concept of ‘Office of Profit’ is now applied as a tool to prevent people from standing from standing for Public Office, rather than prevent the perversion of the electoral process, but I expect the situation for the latter is now too late.

  5. jackie kelly had the same little problem back in 1996 with RAAF employment and NZ citizenship non-renouncement. if newhouse did a jackie kelly (i’m not confident that he’ll beat malcolm), what’s the chance he’d win again in a by-election?

  6. And on nuclear power, should the Liberals be returned they will introduce legislation of the same form as that introduced by The Republicans in US of A. Where land for Federal infrastructure can be seized without compensation – what do you think they did the land audit for – a housing policy!

    The other side of the coin is that there couldn’t possibly be much more money hidden away, other than the ‘Future Fund’, and how smart was that, put in USD months before the USD crashes. So he will need to borrow to build the nuclear plants, or maybe we could all be claim tax deductible payments to nuclear power companies. Don’t forget you heard that first from me!

  8. The Age…
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/voters-nibble-at-howards-handout-bait/2007/11/13/1194766676759.html

    “I’ve been encouraged by Julia Gillard’s views, values and personality and yet she’s standing for the Labor Party and I’m a Liberal,” he said. “It puts me in a bit of a bind.”

    Wow, bit of a problem for this guy. Logic/commonsense vs Pavlov – mmm – my money’s on the conditioned response. Bad luck Julia.

  9. A legal query with Newhouse

    He isn’t paid regularly, only when he sits on the tribunal, so technically he only profits when the tribunal sits and he is paid? So as long as he resigned before the tribunal sat and he got paid would this still be OK?

  10. John Humphreys @ 123

    I ran similarly plausible NSW figures a couple of weeks ago and got the same result. I know most people think the Fishers are the ones who get the most out of the deals on the right that Drury has cobbled together, but I suspect this is the other fallback. Of course the right wing micros may get a smaller vote than this and so get squeezed as people fly back to the Libs for safety.

    If not, it’ll be down to Greens v LDP or Fishers I suspect. For all the ALP voters here, that means [1] Greens (with prefs flowing to ALP, in case you’re wondering) is very important, but the thing that will make it difficult for us in the Greens is that the left-of-centre vote and preference flows may just fall short of being enough to grab that last spot.

  11. I don’t think so Arbie Jay. You also cannot just be on leave without pay so I doubt the mere fact that you haven’t received ‘Crown’ moneys after nominations closed but before you resigned is irrelevant, you’re still in an ‘office of profit’ regardless of whether you actually profited and therefore inelegible to stand. Labor were never going to win Wentworth in any case.

  13. Labor were never going to win Wentworth and I would suggest that if party strategists thought they could, they might have come up with a better candidate that George Newhouse. Aside from being a distraction for Turnbull and a bit something for the toffs of Vaucluse to get a bit excited about, the whole Wentworth saga has nothing in it. Turnbull will win easily, probably on primaries I would suggest.

  14. [So, what if George Newhouse has an paid advisory position that meets on a Tuesday after the second full moon of a month when that Tuseday is the Third Tuesday of a Month ending in ‘h’ – maybe he forgot!]

    If he forgot he doesn’t deserve the seat – there have been many examples in the past few decades from which he should have learnt.

    The law perhaps should be changed, but that’s how it is – we need a referendum to change the constitution.

  17. ND I agree. As a former resident of that area I can’t really seeing it being lost. Malcolm is one of them. The wealthy parts of that electorate will vote for him, and most of the suburbs next to the wealthy ones are full of aspirationals who want to live in the wealthy ones.

    He’ll cruise in. Thats why he spent so much stacking/buying the branch.

  18. If Turnbull will ‘cruise in’ you have to wonder why this hasn’t been reflected in opinion polling.

    I think he will win, I just don’t think it will be as resounding as some people predict. In my opinion, Turnbull is as much of a turkey as Newhouse. He will be a failed Opposition Leader some day and that’s all.

  20. just a quick question? is it only the Libs and Labor that have their launches replayed in prime time on the ABC? is this done for all parties? Or are the majors the only ones deemed news worthy?

  21. i think you’re right mostly, LTEP. malcolm will get in because he’s putridly rich, but not by a big margin. but he’ll never get to the dizzy heights of [failed] opposition leader – he won’t be able to abide being in opposition for a long time (and it WILL be a long time) and he’ll quit and return to the business of business.

  22. Historically the Greens and the Dems get shorter spots – approximately proportionately to their votes.

    I’ve already heard a Green statement on ABC radio, don’t know about TV though.

  26. Hi rates Analyst. I’ve seen the “election messages” that each is allowed. they are usually quite brief… 5-10 mins.

    But the launch seems to be in addition to these.

  29. I think the funniest thing i have heard all election is Turnbulls wife sending out a letter to every person in the electorate saying what a nice bloke he is.
    Catherine Devinny sums it up well.
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/wives-tales-tickle-the-election-funny-bone/2007/11/13/1194766672034.html

    What would your partner say about you fellow bludgers.
    He works hard in the garden, he’s great with the kids and he’s great in bed. So vote for him!!! Huh

  30. Middle man – it’s not a matter of being newsworthy. It’s in the ABC charter, free time is given to all parties based on their vote at the last election. They are not paid ads! It’s been happening for years.

  32. middle man: I read it last night, and I was quite surprised. Perhaps its a sign that Rudd got the nod from Uncle Rupert? Rupert was quite clear yesterday in his view of the ever increasing middle-class welfare system. I’m sure he realises Rudd won’t be different but for a conservative like him he must be fuming to see the Libs have become a big taxing, big spending, middle-class welfare, big government.

    However, there is still a week and a bit to go. Rudd has been very disciplined all year, so I’m sure we won’t see a Latham style handshake nor a forestry policy; any signs of that and the attack dogs will be out in full force. It’s not over until Antony says it’s over.

  33. It’s not a scientific poll, but John Faine is at Eastland Shopping Centre doing a broadcast. He asked people to put up their hand if they are well off. About one of the crowd third put up their hands. Then he ask those with their hands up to leave them up if they were going to vote Liberal. Hardly any left their hands up. The seat is Deakin on a 5.5% Liberal held margin.

  35. Middle Man – don’t know any more than that about the ABC spots, sorry.

    Ad the Janet Albrechtsen piece is not only readable, but moderately insightful and equally critical of Howard and Rudd. Also, an intriguing lack of bile.

    And, in parts, complimentary of Latham!!!!

    An interesting change in style to be sure.

  36. Derek I know the “Election Announcements” are in the charter. I’m referring to the Liberal party launch (and presumably the Lab’s when it happens).

    I have seen the Lab’s do their election announcement, along with others from the greens etc. But the launch seems to be something different to the “election announcements”.

    Does anyone know how this works?

  37. Turnbull won’t tolerate being in opposition, he craves power. Any odds on a defection to the ALP under some “advance the republic” ruse?

  38. Poll in today’s Newcastle Herald has “big Bob Baldwin” leading on primaries 46.3 to 32.23 over Jim Arneman in Paterson.

    The story claims a 0.1 per cent margin for error. Don’t blink you read correctly 0.1% error.
    We then find out it was taken between 5 and 12 November with a sample of 300 people!!!!!!!!!
    Looks like the work experience person spent the week ringing voters in Paterson.

  40. Rates Analyst.

    I almost choked on my required (left wing) latte when I read that section about Latham.

    Maybe Rupe has made it known. I still reckon Rupe is following his nose.. he knows where the money is, and thats on online content and sales. A FTTN network to the whole country will he him along. I thought Fairfax would have been keen on this too.

  42. What would you expect from that idiot Faine, he was approached by some smart arse in the Greens back in the late 90’s to run for the Senate. He took offence and has been anti-green (“I don’t know about these Greens, all this non-sense about climate change”)ever since. He is a classic example of what is wrong with our media, he thinks that if he can ‘win’ and argument then the problem is solved. He is, of course, a Lawyer and in his narrow little mind this makes sense, but clearly issues such as Global Warming do not alter one dot if some self oppinionated w*&^%r at the ABC says so .

  44. The Catherine Devinny article is good chuckle, although I’m not sure that Laura Bush is much enamoured of Nettie. Then again maybe Nettie hasn’t figured that one out.

  47. I think people are full of themselves about Turnbull jumping ship while in opposition. He will stay on, but his future will depend on the direction of the Lib party, including the purging of the religious right. If the right of the party isn’t purged, Turnbull will lose preselection before the next election, and he will do a King and run as an independent at the next election. If he isn’t ousted in a preselection, he will position himself as the lower-l liberal saviour of the party. If he is ousted, he is probably the man who would set up the next centre-right party.

  49. Antony G, I nearly fell off my seat!

    If, on the big night, you say that the Coalition is taking a ‘Nantucket sleigh ride’ (even without mentioning dog food in the same sentence), you’ll go down in electoral mythology as an immortal!

    And a wickedly funny man!

  50. 178 [It will be a cold day in hell before a nuclear reactor is built in the ACT.]

    Just think of it as an added tourist attraction and it could even have the Liberal logo carved into the side of the stack.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 20
1 … 3 4 5 … 20