Senate and Page polls

Morgan has published a survey of Senate voting intention aggregated from its polling over October. As usual the minor party figures look a little inflated, while major party support reflects the slight improvement the Coalition seems to have managed during the campaign. We also have a poll of 300 voters in Page conducted by Grafton’s Daily Examiner and Lismore’s Northern Star, which they stress is “not intended to be scientifically accurate”. It shows Labor’s Janelle Saffin with a decisive primary vote lead over Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis, 44 per cent to 41 per cent. A poor level of recorded support for the Greens is not of interest in itself, but it elicits an admission from candidate Theo Jongen that the party’s vote is “running at six per cent”, compared with 10.8 per cent in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Senate and Page polls”

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  1. The banner was on that overpass on Burwood Road near Burwood station. The Liberal candidate was Robert Kee, challenging sitting member and Liberal-cum-independent Paul Zammit, and John Murphy was Labors challenger. Kee had this big banner outside his office for the campaign. I reckon it was 3×3 meters, so it was conspicuous when it was taken down in the last week or so. Then it appeared on the bridge on election day with some pretty professional looking amendments: Robert Kee became Bert, there was an Ernie drawn beside him, and the slogan became ‘let us amuse your children’. One of the funnier bits of electioneering I’ve seen. And it stayed up all day.

  2. Ah, yes, I remember Robert Lee (not Kee) as the Liberal candidate for Lowe in 1998. Actually, he was my headmaster way back when I was in primary school.

    I have to say that the stunt you refer to, Pancho, seems pretty decent for an election stunt – I’ve never seen anything like that since (nor have I heard of one…)

  3. 75
    Robert Bollard Says:
    November 13th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
    Swing Lowe,
    “Anyway, regarding Antony’s comment about the irrelevance of Wentworth. Au contraire! Some of us want to see the Liberals lose Bennelong, Higgins AND Wentworth…Not completely beyond the bounds of possibility…and oh so sweet.”
    ….
    and Mayo, Menzies, Berowra and Warringah too…too much to hope for, I know..

  5. “The Australian” busted for doing campaigning for the Libs! No surprises there!

    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/13/2089856.htm?section=business

    News Corporation chairman Rupert Murdoch says disciplinary action would be taken against any reporter who tried privately to influence political candidates in the name of one of the company’s publications.

    High-profile independent candidate for the Sydney seat of Wentworth, Danielle Ecuyer, says a journalist with The Australian, Caroline Overington, tried to pressure her to direct preferences to the sitting Liberal MP and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

    Asked about the story at a shareholders’ meeting in Adelaide today, Mr Murdoch said he was unaware of the reported incident.

    He says the company cannot restrict the private actions of individuals.

    “If they’re doing it in the name of the paper … we would more than discourage it, we would take disciplinary action,” Mr Murdoch said.

    “It’s a free world and a reporter is entitled to his opinions as much as anybody else. I’m sorry about that.”

    Ms Ecuyer said she would complain to the Australian Electoral Commission over an email from Ms Overington which said: “Please preference Malcolm. It would be such a good front-page story.”

  6. Big Blind Dave,

    by my maths the 4 poll average for the most recent of each poll (Newspoll, Galaxy, Nielsen phone, Morgan phone) is ALP 55.0 Coalition 45.0

    The Morgan phone poll is more recent than its FTF, which had the 62/38 result. But it’s the smallest sample size of any.

    If you put the large Morgan FTF in instead of its phone poll, the 4 poll average would be 56.5 / 43.5. If you put both Morgan polls in and add Nielsen’s Online poll, it would be 56.3 / 43.7. But I think 55/45 is a pretty good reflection of what’s going on at the moment.

  9. Newhouse is an idiot and I prefer Turnbull over him.

    But The Australian has been pushing it’s pro-Libs BS for way too long and this time they have gone over the top…. unfortunately only the ABC picked up on this story as the “establishment” doesn’t do stories on it’s own.

  15. Grog @ 97:

    That might explain why Smirk was so quick to get postal vote instructions out – in the first drop of the campaign. It was pretty obvious.

    Just on Smirk:

    In the last few days the Alp and Coalition have launched what can best be described as a mailing war in Higgins. While I strongly doubt Mr Costello would lose his seat in all but the most disastrous of circumstances for the liberals, the close margin has made for some fun cat-and-mouse.

  20. Sorry, Big Blind Dave. I should have said that my 55.0 / 45.0 estimate was unweighted. But in this case it makes minimal difference. Weighted for sample size, the 4 phone poll average is 54.9 / 45.1.

  21. Jazz (88) How could your friend who is conducting pre-polling in Moreton know how any of the electors are voting? It is a secret ballot and it is illegal to open pre-poll or postal votes before 6 pm on polling day.

  22. Genereic person,

    The Age (and I assume SMH) had the headline “Howard’s Fightback” (or similar) after poll results a couple of weeks back. Contrasting that with The Oz’s ‘Howard still better economic manager’ (but vote at 30%) spin, it’s clear the Australian is more than biased, it spins most stories in the government’s favour.

  23. Few people have mentioned the possibility of a micro-party upset in NSW. When I plugged in the above figures (+/- 0.2%) and gave the LDP 0.22%, then the senate calculator tells me that Terje (LDP) gets elected. Indeed, if he gets about 0.5% of the vote it seems very likely.

    http://ldpblog.wordpress.com/2007/11/13/nsw-senate-poll/

    Still an outside chance of course because so many things could go wrong… but it would be an amazing result if it happened. It would make Steve Fielding’s result (elected on 1.88%) look like child’s play.

  25. GP, I think they’re (Ramsey anyway?) in the SMH…. but you’re upset because there are people in a democracy who don’t like the PM? Pur-leeeeease (to paraphrase). Maybe you should go to Andrew Bolt’s blog?

    There’s a difference between balanced reporting and spin, and The Oz Constantly spins. Look at it’s front-page story last week on the car industry crisis-report – abviously fed to them by the Libs. And then the car industry has to put out a press release denying the existence of said report. It’s ridiculous.

  30. John Humphrey @ 123 : If that happens, watch the major parties change the way to vote for the upper house. The Greens idea of giving preference in above the line seems more pausible, and it breaks the tactical preference deals that happens these days.

  34. “60
    Lefty E Says:
    Incidentally, I dont care what anyone says. Gillard is a babe.”

    Don’t know whether she’s a babe, but I’d love to have had her as my best mate in my single days. Eventually, of course, we’d have both got p’ssed one night and done the biz, but she’d just think the whole thing was a hoot, and needle me about it in the years to come. I just think she’s brilliant.

  35. Darn @ 127, thanks for that link to Madam Lash article, good read. As much as I hate to admit it, she makes a lot of sense, Howard has been relying for survival for so long by dishing out welfare to key elements of his constituency. And now we have the inflationary hand outs to his private school mates. When oh when are we going to see real leadership in this country and not venal porkbarrelling.

  36. From Oz Politics blog

    “Today’s SMH suggested that Malcolm Turnbull’s Labor opponent, George Newhouse, did not resign his position as a paid member of the state’s consumer disputes tribunal before lodging his nomination for the seat of Wentworth. Newhouse’s letter of resignation is undated, and it appears to have been received after nominations closed. If Newhouse wins Wentworth, and there is a successful legal challenge to the validity of his nomination, I expect there would be a by-election in Wentworth.”

    Looks as though we better not get too excited about Wentworth!

  37. 132
    Just Me Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 3:48 am
    60
    Lefty E Says:
    Incidentally, I dont care what anyone says. Gillard is a babe.

    Mmmm. Does it for me too. Ooh yeah.

    And you too VoterBoy _ If you think Guillard is
    “a babe” and/or someone you would ‘do the biz’ wif you are WEIRDOS, “Me too” !!

  38. It is now official , Newhouse is the worst candidate Labor has offered at this election- if what Basil @136 is suggesting is right- what a stupid thing to do.

    I still think Wentworth will be won by Labor and this election and Newhouse will have to do some sneaky back room deals to keep his bottom on that seat after he wins it.

    I would make him resign and put up another Labor candidate in the by-election: Turnbull will take off to a safe Liberal seat like Berowra and leave Wentworth to the ALP.

  41. Basil @ 136 – phenomenally stupid. Not only should Newhouse have been smarter than that… but how could Sussex St possibly let that happen? They should walk their candidates step-by-step through every possible obstacle to their candidacy.

  42. News had the headlines up on its front page that Holt’s death may have been suicide by drowning because of depression and then right underneath Joyce saying that the cooalition were depressed about the polls.

    Holt story has now gone.

    On Wentworth and Newhouse, Wentworth is now off the list of a couple of bookies sites.

  47. ‘Star recruit’ Peter Garrett is confused about his own party’s climate change policy.

    ‘Star Recruit’ Mike Kelly is confused about his party’s education policy.

    ‘Star recruit’ George Newhouse, a lawyer, apparently hasnt got the legal skills to lodge a conforming nomination.

    ‘Star recruit’, Nicole Cornes, well, the facts speak for themselves.

  49. Labor will not win Wentworth – the feeling on the ground is that Turnbull is safe. He is highly regarded across the political spectrum and despite immense dislike for the PM I have no doubt Turnbull will survive.

    Newhouse is a goose – I went to a community forum at which he spoke and he was embarrassingly bad – he had 5 minutes at which to speak and didn’t get past telling everyone that he was inspired to run by his daughters – because he was concerned about what kind of future they would have. All very nice, but horribly cliched and totally devoid of substance.

    Having said all that I’ll be preferencing Newhouse above Turnbull (but I’m more biased than most)

  50. If Newhouse has stuffed that up he’s a goose, and doesnt deserve it.

    I dont rule out the possibility its all a smear, of course (the Libs WOULD sink that low) – but it doesnt look good.

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