Bennelong and Herbert “polls”

Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Bennelong and Herbert “polls””

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  3. No, mad cow, it doesn’t. It is, frankly, utterly depressing and it makes you realise that the process of election-time politics is base for one very good reason.

  5. There have been two big moves on the betting markets today. All three polls (SportingBet, Centrebet and PortlandBet) have moved LaTrobe from being pro Coalition to firmly in the ALP camp, and there has been an across the board splurge on the ALP in Queensland seats on SportingBet, among other things moving Bowman to the ALP side of the ledger. These are the first major perturbations in a while.

  7. I’ll write to David Bradbury to see if he can get Labor’s message across in Lindsay. Can’t believe some are still so undecided!!

  9. The four corners online poll has the question..
    (the buttons are missing in this cut and paste)

    What do you think the election result will be?

    Coalition 10+ seats majority
    Coalition 1-9 seats majority
    Labor 1-5 seats majority
    Labor 6+ seats majority
    Hung Parliament

    What!?!?!?

  11. I’m going to my Labor contact to print some leaflets re Kyoto and private school funding. I know where one of the swingers live.

  12. Love this from Kevin.

    [Federal Opposition leader Kevin Rudd says Prime Minister John Howard has a track record of reneging on promises.

    Mr Howard unveiled billions of dollars worth of policies at the Coalition’s election launch Brisbane today, including tax-free home savings accounts and upfront childcare rebates.

    But Mr Rudd says Mr Howard’s policies lack a vision for the future and he has broken his election promises before.

    “Mr Howard said in the past he wanted to sink the knife into Medicare and destroy it once and for all, he now says he’s the best friend that Medicare has ever had,” he said.

    “Mr Howard said before the last election that he would not increase troop numbers in Iraq before he doubled the number of troops that were present in Iraq.”

    He says Mr Howard’s plan to hand over the leadership reins to Treasurer Peter Costello means his policies are worthless.

    “This speech today is the ‘no new ideas for the future’ speech,” he said.

    “It is the ‘no new ideas for the future’ speech because Mr Howard is locked into the past and his only real plan for the future is to retire and to hand over to Mr Costello.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2088829.htm

  14. “497
    Michael Says:
    November 12th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
    495 – phew!
    Did you watch it? I couldn’t bear to do so. Keen for a synopsis though.”

    I’m not watching it – it’s 10.30am in London and I’m in the office, but I read the transcript…

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/s2088749.htm

    What it amounts to is a reminder that many voters have no idea what’s going on in politics, and that they’re spread across the political spectrum, so they tend to cancel each other out, but when the swing is on (as it is), one side is going to benefit more from the general ignorance.

    And in this election, the beneficiaries will be Labor.

  16. I thought the Four Corners show was very interesting, especially the way some people misunderstood policies. Obviously a lot of people don’t follow the Parties very closely. The Libs need to hold hold onto almost every one of these voters who voted for them last time and clearly if the voters on 4 Corners are typical they are not going to.

  17. Voterboy, how do you figure that. Seems most of the dumb stupid pig ignorant ideas that that show exposes are in favour to the Tories.

  19. Note that the Veteran lives in the ultra Marginal seat of Swan.

    [The Defence Minister Brendan Nelson has presented reproductions of World War II medals to a 100-year-old veteran in Perth.

    Fred Harper had his war medals stolen during a break-in at his Redcliffe home in September this year.

    Dr Nelson told Mr Harper Australia was proud of his war service and ashamed of the people who stole his medals.

    He says it was an honour to present Mr Harper with the medals.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2088364.htm

  20. God, that four corners thing has brought me down to earth. The stupidity of your average swinging voter never ceases to amaze me. That family with the young girl were bovine in their stupidity and ignorance… swallowing any sh.t that gets cynically thrown at them by the politicians and press. Their take on labor and kyoto was hilarious, and the women had some throw back memory of Latham and private schools that she’d managed to pin on Rudd…You can see why howards been in govt for so blo.dy long.

  21. OMG. The ignorance of those swinging voters is astounding. I’ve always had a pretty low opinion of most swinging voters, and this program has done nothing but reinforce that idea.

    You should have to sit an idiot quiz before they let you vote.

  26. oh dear, Caroline Overington getting a pasting from Monica on Media Watch for encouraging Danielle Ecuyer (independent in Wentworth) to preference Malcolm Turnbull over George Newhouse. Lots of sweetie darlings amongst it all.

  27. Is anyone out there watching Monica absolutely destroy Caroline Overington for here to eternity? If not, you’re missing out. Even I’ve changed my mind, and that’s some effing bulldozer.

  28. ArabaLeftie @ 505

    Quite a bit of movement there indeed, even Petrie is $1.75 ALP / $1.90 LP. They must have gotten a few big bets in, or some ‘insider info’ which isnt good at all for the Coalition.

  29. Why should anyone be surprised by the Four Corner’s swinging voters? The result of the last three elections is proof enough that ignorance in the electorate is widespread.

    Yep you have to dumb down the message and repeat it ad nauseum to cut through to these people.

  30. C’mon people. There were 5 voters on 4 corners, all of which voted Howard at the last election in 2004. This time at least 1 of them is going to vote Labor, and another 3 are undecided. It is only that ill informed mother that is certainly voting Howard.

    Does that not put the swing in Lindsay at at least 20% and 40% if one of the others swings too?

    That is the thing with these ‘interviews’ with swinging voters, they are all people who voted for Howard last time. The ALP only needs a small number of Howard voters to change sides (10% would be a massive swing – 5% is more realistic…)

  32. Crispy, is that poll biased or what? No hung parliament, a few seats either way, or more.. nah.. theyve got a coalition 10+ and to balance that a Labor 6+

  35. Sometimes my democratic instincts are tested. Those four corners voters would be amusing if they were from another planet (which for all intents and purposes they are) but they’re down here with us, armed with the right to vote, sentencing us to a lifetime of political lies, chicanery, bullsh.t and manipulation and imposing on us people like downer and howard. Plato had it right when he talked about philosopher kings. Its amazing some people find their mouth when they eat…

  36. Bloody ABC 4 Corners voting page is a scam. If you close down the page and re-open, you can have another go, and again , and again. Now that’s scientific.

  37. Monica goes out on a high note with some nice little digs at the cozy Libs club at the Australian and on the ABC Board. We’ll miss you Monica, especially if the Bubble-Headed Triolli gets the new Media Watch gig.

  38. Hmm, Monica’s last Media Watch, one suspects. She has ripped a second alimentary canal out of Caroline Overington and then a poisoned paeon to the evil scum that was John Laws. Onya Mon!

    My, have I had a nice night’s viewing.

  40. “517
    mad cow Says:
    November 12th, 2007 at 9:29 pm
    Voterboy, how do you figure that. Seems most of the dumb stupid pig ignorant ideas that that show exposes are in favour to the Tories.”

    Ah, now you’re editorialising (albeit understandably so). What I’m saying is that there is always a significant bloc of uninformed voters, and they’re certainly not always pro-Liberal. The same herd mentality that drives the share markets despite questions over fundamental valuation drives these voters, and they often come down on the side who who they think will win. I don’t know what the individual polling in that seat indicates, but the overall polling would indicate that these guys are unrepresentative of what is likely to happen in a fortnight, and that the overall trend (of both informed and uninformed voters) is unquestionably to Labor.

    But yes, they were magnificently dumb, were they not?

  41. [Bloody ABC 4 Corners voting page is a scam. If you close down the page and re-open, you can have another go, and again , and again. Now that’s scientific.]

    Oh and I voted 10 + seats to the ALP, and the rsulty came back as 0%

    Don’t tell me they’ve got a Geelong/Melbourne Grammer School IT student on Work Experience setting up that Poll 🙁

  43. Perhaps the Albrechtsen IT team has been subcontracted to do the Media Watch site. Bring back Stuart Littlemore, I say – best host of that show ever.

  44. VoterBoy of Over the Water,
    You’re right.
    To assume that one side of politics has a monopoly on dumb voters is heroically optimistic. And is a surprisingly frequent delusion amongst partisans of both sides.
    But yes, the lack of knowledge of some voters is scary. I’ve met people who don’t realise that State and Federal governments are different things. And one person in particular who, in a discussion about NSW politics, kept saying (even after multiple explanations) “Yes, but what’s John Howard’s job in all this?”. (I don’t think she voted Liberal by the way).

  46. There are probably people who assume that Howard and Rudd are on the same team. (They look a bit alike, policies seem similar …).

  48. Right on Grog.
    Actually I’m a fan of compulsory voting – it makes even the most apathetic person take some responsibility for who gets in.

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