Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.

ALP LNP GRN
October 20/21 33 38 11
September 8/9 39 35 10
June 23/24 38 34 13
2004 Election 35.0 45.0 7.7

UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “Galaxy Senate poll”

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  2. The media have never generally liked Howard but previously they have never turned on him as they have in the last few years because they want him gone and if they continue to sprout their rubbish and not scrutinise Rudd properly then they’ll get their wish…

  4. Glen, the media have given Howard a dream run……all big business has. When he loses office and you see him standing there without the robes of office even you will see him for the litte mediocre fellow he is. There is a definite move against Howard in the MSN which happens inevitably when change is coming like a tidal wave and everyone wants to be on the right side of it. I suggest glen that you stop listening to mummy and daddy and get on board…

  5. [The media have never generally liked Howard but previously they have never turned on him as they have in the last few years because they want him gone and if they continue to sprout their rubbish and not scrutinise Rudd properly then they’ll get their wish…]

    Sounds like a fair deal to me – Howard out, Rudd in.

  7. hahahahahhahaha some moron from business S.A. just said on Nine News that inflation is at a good level.

    Maybe he slept through all of Wednesday?

  9. Labor harasses and intimidates pensioners in nursing homes for their votes
    Liberal looks after our older persons and improves their pensions

  10. yeah. Glenn: are you mad at John Howard? If I was a Lib supporter, I’d be hell pissy. I think he’s dropped the ball big big time on the campaign trail. Like calling it this side of a RBA annoucement. Like flubbing the debate.

  11. Thanks William for your prompt reply.

    I did not know you were having probs with spamming. I was trying to catch up with posts earlier in the day and was trying to clear up some misconceptions (at lest in my mind) re the capped loans that were discontinued in the 70’s (I think). Once one starts turning grey history is one area that us oldies have an advantage.

    You provide a very interesting blog and I would not want to do anything to make you life harder – though maybe after a few reds ………..

    Below is a copy of that earlier post.

    John of Melbourne @ # 152 said:

    “AM house interest rates were at 13%!”

    It would be nice if you got your details correct John of Melbourne.

    Some people had capped loans at 13% but a good percentage of homebuyers had uncapped loans. This meant that the rate on their loan was subject to the market.

    To get a capped loan one had to satisfy certain conditions and borrow from an approved lender. Banks were approved lenders while all other lenders were not approved. However, not all loans from a Bank were approved loans for the purpose of having the loan rate capped.

    This means that some borrowers were paying a lot more than 13% on their housing loan.

    Those who had the capped loans however were caught when the rates fell below 13% in that the rate was maintained at the 13% mark for a considerable time after the rate fell. This resulted in those on unapproved loans were paying a interest rate of well below the cap of 13% well after the “official rate” had fallen below 13%.

    For those keeping a record of predications for the election here is mine for what it is worth

    My head says ALP 85
    My heart says ALP 100+

  12. So much for Rudd saying the Howard Government would go negative we have that buck tooth factional rooster Albanese on ACA claiming some big conspiracy with the EB and the Liberal Party…what hypocrisy from Rudd he was going to go as negative as the Coalition and yet he hadnt the balls to say so…

    I am not mad at JWH i am mad at the media…and Ray Martin…
    Why would i be angry with calling an election this side of an RBA decision…and he didnt flub the debate he burnt Rudd about using false OECD reports to sprout lies to the people of Australia…

    Rudd got burned today…thats what happens when you arrive late to a pensioners club and interrupt their performance…has Rudd no decency! No wonder that guy called him a bastard…

  15. [So much for Rudd saying the Howard Government would go negative we have that buck tooth factional rooster Albanese on ACA claiming some big conspiracy with the EB and the Liberal Party…]

    Albanese is right. The Liberals shouldn’t accept money from an organisation that opposes liberty and equality. Opposing those two principles means they are un-Australian, and thus they should not be supported.

  16. Glen: he rambled, he got mad. He had to play it cool, because Rudd’s framed as a nice, reasonable, calm, practical man. Think Father Mulcahy from MASH.

    They’re going to put interest rates up during an election campaign! People vote with their hearts, their minds, and their mortgages. That’s bad. Look, honestly, I’m not saying that I think John Howard is a bad person. I’m just saying that I think Howard’s base have a reason to be mad at him.

    ..how do you think the campaign is going? on a scale of one to ten? I mean, externalities (the media which we’re all smart enough to see through, at least here), and emphemera (K. Rudd’s aural snacking, rest homes, Bishop’s school trip, etc, etc)

  17. Glen

    Do you have a clue who writes OECD reports on Australia? AUSTRALIANS.

    I had a nice time in Paris decades ago working for the OECD, getting all my data from the AUSTRALIAN Govt.

    Costello loves to quote stats he agrees with, then ignores anything that does not suit his spin.

    I wonder how many shredders have burnt out this week. 🙂

  18. [ i am mad at the media…and Ray Martin… ]

    Damn that Ray Martin. Damn Media. They’re losing us the war in Iraq and driving down Bush and Howard’s popularity. If only there was a rich Australian conservative who could create a Media Empire and marry a much younger Asian journalist and go and live in the USA but still control the newspapers in Australia and use his power to promote the conservatives world wide and maybe even call his company News something or other. Guess you can just dream of such things. Damn media.

  20. 542- Ive heard on the grapevine the Telegraph editorial will come out pro ALP. Murdoch believes that Rudd is a safe pair of hands (at the moment anyway)

  21. Speaking of Rudd, is it just me taking notice for once or is he really improving in his media performances?

    His delivery certainly seems a lot more relaxed and polished and has more depth to it over the last week or so. Maybe it’s just a confidence thing with him but he’s getting better by the day.

  25. Glen you need to be a little more rational. Make a list of the things that have opened up our economy and thus made us what we are:

    Diplomatic ties with china
    Reduction of tariffs
    Floating of the dollar
    compulsory supper
    etc.

    Then put a name next to them.

  26. Rude old tools from Tassie aside, campaign’s going swimmingly Id say. However, Im increasingly of the view that public polls should be regulated by minimum standards.

    Polls are important to us out here you know!

    Lets have minimum standards (eg samples sizes), and a bit of methodological rigour, please.

    Should have to publish the questions with the results too, and we’ll be the judge of who’s pushing and who’s polling.

  31. Keating on ABC – solid gold!

    Also, Jim Middleton picked up Possum’s analysis showing that interest rate increases correlate with an increase in Labor’s vote.

  32. Yep, I’d say a pretty good day all round for Labor. The MSM and banks are turning like sharks on a bleeding prey. Keating at his marvellous best. How I miss him. Want him for first Leader of the Republic. On topic, the poll looks entirely not worth commenting on to me. Brissenden on 7.30 fundamentally replaying Lib. propaganda. May the new Labor gov’t renew the ABC. Ozymandias, you’re a genius.

  35. charles @ 575
    ……
    to which we could add:

    Nearly every other enduring reform of the twentieth century, from the accomplishments of Fisher through Curtin and Chifley to Whitlam and Hawke-Keating. The great social and economic drivers have been put in place by Labor governments, whatever their faults and mis-steps. By contrast, the coalition have stood for one thing above all – getting and enjoying office.

  36. [By contrast, the coalition have stood for one thing above all – getting and enjoying office.]

    Fair go, what about decimal currency? 😛

  42. obviously Ray Martin is a communist and Channel Nine is the Socialist Broadcasting Station…or is that SBS…

    Nice EB bogeymen

    heheheh

    PJK for President!

  43. [To be fair, in retrospect, despite his errors, Malcolm Fraser did some good things too…]

    Including of course forming SBS TV. But I think now is the time to merge SBS and ABC, one station for all Australian content, the other station for foreign content, and another two stations for national and state community TV.

    Something like PBS and CSPAN in the U.S.

  45. [Club president Bev Twibell said visitors were welcome as it was a public event.

    She said local candidate Sid Sidebottom had asked to attend and said he might bring other visitors.

    “It was only this morning, about half past ten that (I found out) Kevin Rudd would be coming,” she said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22647055-5005361,00.html

    Methinks the Accordian Player needs some Anger Management Pills.

    Oh and for the record,m he was a Scot – nuff said.

  46. i’d like a channel that plays reruns of the west wing, minder, gilligan’s island and i dream of genie…i could descend into telelvisual dementia, content at last

  47. Frank the point was and everybody could see that Rudd and Sidebottom came in late and interrupted their recital so while they may have been invited they came late and disrupted them doing their performance…so Rudd deserved the stick he got…

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