Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.

ALP LNP GRN
October 20/21 33 38 11
September 8/9 39 35 10
June 23/24 38 34 13
2004 Election 35.0 45.0 7.7

UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “Galaxy Senate poll”

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  1. And the choir sang “The Carnival is Over”. 🙂

    Hey Glen did you score with Tabby the other day? Maybe not your a bit cranky tonight. 😉

  2. Both the public broadcasting corps. need a thorough going over IMO. Well, apart from John Clarke and Brian Dawe, who should be enshrined to forever take the piss. And the Chasers. Keating for President I say.

  3. The campaign is starting to become really quite dull – beyond the concentration span and interest level of most voters. I think Howard will wear the blame for the tedium: this interminable campaign is his idea….

  4. Comrades,

    Celebrate the prospective victory to be sure, but I am curious as to your views as to who will not make it onto the Front Bench, who will make it to the promised land with KR only to be denied promotion at the death. My top 5 picks below:

    Arch Bevis
    Kim Carr
    Simon Crean
    Laurie Ferguson
    Kate Lundy

  6. [Has anyone seen any labor ads that are defending the union movement and countering the Lib scare campaign??]

    No. Word is that something involving Burnie Banton is in the works. Rudd met with him early this week.

  8. Glen, Howard is STILL telling lies about interest rates. Surely even he realises that he should talk about something else?

    Oh, and he keeps admitting that WorkChoices cuts real wages, he may want to talk about something else. Maybe flowers, and bunnies, just NOT interest rates, and NOT WorkChoices.

  10. [By contrast, the coalition have stood for one thing above all – getting and enjoying office.

    Fair go, what about decimal currency? ]

    Don’t forget thalidomide was introduced under the Liberals too.

  12. blindoptimist, I agree. Without the entertainment of Keating today, and the enraged Liberal voting organ grinder attacking Rudd for turning up and impolitely interrupting his wife’s performance in the choir, whaddha got? Cheezus, this could get teedjus. Do you think voters could actually punish Howard for strining it out for so long? In my waters, as it were, I feel it could.

  13. ESJ,

    Ah yes, but the Libs will have the spoils of Opposition to distribute.

    Sour grapes and a dollop of humiliation.

  15. maybe the boredom is JWH’s new plan. Just wait for people to fall asleep from boredom and maybe when we sleepwalk in to the voting booths we might vote for the Libs

  16. If we haven’t heard a leak on ACN, it’s another shocking poll for the Libs.

    That theory worked on Monday!

    And this time, the debate may have an influence on the result of the poll…..

    This may not be pretty.

    BTW, do we know for sure that there is an ACN tomorrow?

    Galaxy?

    Morgan?

  20. 595
    Frank Calabrese Says:
    Methinks the Accordian Player needs some Anger Management Pills.

    Reminds me of a Billy Connolly joke (altered slightly for context)…

    That is one line you never hear: She’s shagging the accordion player.

    (Billy said banjo. Same same.)

  22. I like the pathos of 87 for John Howard. So, I’ll go with 87 seats to ALP, 61 coalition and 2 indepenents. And Howard clean bowled in his last innings for a duck.

  24. Accordian Rage only had 20-30 seconds as part of a story abouyt Joe McDonald being aquitted on Ch 7 (along with Howard’s response and new scare campaign ad)

  26. Not dull for me, the one thing I have enjoyed most in this campaign to date is the total disrobing of Howard & Costello as great reformers and economic managers.

    The planets have aligned to show them up for the cheap and shallow frauds they are.

  27. [ABC News Onlise headline: “Howard Abused by Tas Senior”. I guess that’s better than being abused by a Bennelong senior.]

    Methinks they confused Howard with Rudd, who suffered Accordian Rage in Tassie.

  31. Yes, the pre-enlightenment Lib campaign continues. Away with modern notions of ‘evidence’ and reason!

    – Andrews bags Sudanese (turns out *they* are the ones being attacked/ and have crimes rates *lower* than national average)
    – Howard bags McDonald (on the day he gets *acquitted* of said charge).

    Hey, dufoids: you may find that adducing evidence *supporting* your case helps this whole fearsmear deal.

  32. I was musing on “Bastardgate” and how one should respond in such circumstances, when I recalled the UK election of 2001. Then, Deputy PM John Prescott livened up what was otherwise a seriously dull campaign by decking some thicko pie-munching Tory egg thrower.

    Given that Howard is still not breaking through, and there are four weeks to go, might I suggest The Team starts provoking punch-ups with voters? If I were Brian Loughnane, I’d schedule these on a daily basis, so that momentum was always on my side. I’d also start physically attacking groups I wasn’t traditionally expected to attack – pensioners, returned servicepeople, small business operators, evangelicals, just to show that I was serious about broadening my base.

    Abbott comes to mind as someone useful in this role, although he’s a bit obvious, what with the Oxford Blue in boxing and all that. Might I therefore suggest Peter Costello, stripped to the waist, punching a Rotarian?

    Watch the narrowing then!

  35. Let it end – I’m with you on that one

    Re the long campaign and whether it could damage Howard futher. The precedent is the 84 election which was the last 6 week election. The theory on that is that the long campaign was heavily resented and contributed to Hawkes sub par result

  36. Talking about MSM etc turning on rodent etc.

    The best bit is when the libs turn on each other. Thats always the best and there is heaps to come out. It will keep us all in chuckles for a long time.

  37. VBOW – I think it could happen anyway….Costello looks to me like he’s gonna unravel during this campaign and could easily end up throwing punches….what with his reputation taking a battering and the ‘reserved’ sign on the PMs chair going out the window….he may need to take it out on swan on tuesday as a rehearsal for the thrashing he’s gonna give Howard post election

  38. Dave.. on election night watch the insults and knifing… oh it was workchoices.., interest rates oh it was Howard… oh it was me… yep they will be at it…
    hope they go to Bob Katter always a favorite with some colloquial Australian slang….

  40. ooohhh, Today Tonight are also running an EB story – basically about how they get the cash for election campaigns.

    First ACA, now TT – not good for Team Howard.

  41. Can I just say that the old coot who abused Rudd was totally out of order. The old trogg might be a dyed in the wool Tory and hate Rudd but how about a bit of respect for the man who may well be next PM? How about some respect for the office? He should be booted out of that club for carrying on the way he did. If Rudd becomes the next PM he should send a couple of ASIO goons to sort him out.

  42. Poll on yahoo.com.au – “Do election campaign spending promises get you to change your vote?”

    5% – yes, best bid gets my vote
    4% – yes, but I wish they didn’t
    8% – no, promises not big enough
    83% – no, they don’t affect my vote

  43. 637 Sean, Costello??? Suppose he’d be better than the Acme Coyote but really. The guy has no ticker, just a low altitude flyer, all tip and no iceberg if you know what I mean LOL.

    The EB is going to end up really costing Howard & Costello, it’s starting to bite.

  45. Joe McDonald? I presume you mean Country Joe McDonald. Lead singer of The Fish. “And it’s one, two, three, what are we fightin’ for? Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn…” No wonder John Howard hates him. What’s he been doing since Woodstock (apart from entering building sites)?

    As for Rudd in Tassie – anyone who can get abused by an accordion player is a vote-winner.

    Q. What’s the difference between an accordionist and a terrorist?
    A. Terrorist have sympathisers.

  47. Ah, these easiest option will be to blame Mr. Howard… so on election night, they’ll all sit around saying ‘Howard shoulda left’. My god! his colleagues are going to slice and dice him… it won’t even be necessary to wait for the lefties or the historians to destroy Howard legacy… the Liberals will do all the work for us!

  48. Sorry to appear ignorant, but the whole EB stuff is a bit hard to follow from London – what’s the story?

    Some sort of right wing religous group donating to the Libs in returnn for JHW’s ear? Is that it?

  49. TC…it was Rudd and Sidebottom who should have shown more respect for the seniors…they came in late in the middle of a recital with the media scrum to interrupt their performance and the upset participant is suppose to show respect to Rudd are you crazy TC its about time someone told Rudd that he cant always have a staged PR event…and that he cant just barge into places without some sense of courtesy….what makes u think he was a Tory anyway the news said he was a Liberal voter but he could have voted for anybody…typical media trying to protect that scumbag Rudd…

  50. 641
    Tory Crimes Says:
    October 25th, 2007 at 8:41 pm

    ………….. If Rudd becomes the next PM he should send a couple of ASIO goons to sort him out.

    No,he should just be greatful it wasn’t Mark Latham.!

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