A thread for you all to discuss the debate as it happens. If you don’t like the company round here, there’s a live chatroom at Larvatus Prodeo.
Open debate thread
Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
A thread for you all to discuss the debate as it happens. If you don’t like the company round here, there’s a live chatroom at Larvatus Prodeo.
[Why were teh debate audience so well-behaved? They didn’t even clap or cheer at any stage of the debate, except after it was over. Why bother inviting 200 die-hard supporters from each side if they can’t do anything?]
According to the debate rules, they weren’t allowed to make any noise.
But of course Peter Costello couldn’t help himself… I guess they needed some special rules for special people.
No 897
I’ve done the grassroots campaigning and the polls are not reflective of the true state of affairs in Bennelong.
Indeed, the betting market shows the PM clearly in the lead.
The fact is that people like the idea of the PM being their local member and his infinite recognition with the electorate simply bowls over Ms McWho.
Howard will not lose Bennelong. McKew in Bennelong is a two term strategy.
‘McKew in Bennelong is a two term strategy.’
Well, a two-month strategy if the ALP wins.
[ The fact is that people like the idea of the PM being their local member ]
No doubt that for some that is true. But what happens to Bennelong when the Emperor in Waiting Costello takes over? Are they excited by that?
GP @902.
Gee, and your biased, self serving assessment is the end of the debate!
Talk to those outside Howard’s office, you might get a different reponse.
Howard will lose Bennelong and that will be sorry enough for Mr Bennelong.
The Asian community has created a support Maxine group – and to quote from the BBC one Asian resident called mr Howard a liar, cheat etc etc. And the issues with them? Mrs Hanson & Howard tacit acceptance of her anti-Asian stance, his own anti-Asian comments and so forth.
It helps that Maxine is proving to be a real natural with people and speaks so intelligently and with authority that they all sit up and take notice.
873
P Gardiner
Howard opposed the superannuation reforms of Keating, one of the single biggest and most important social and economic reforms in Australia’s history, the funds from which have become a huge and growing source of investment capital.
Generic Person 895 you are sooo right, at least about Piers.
I have now given up the petty self-indulgence of taunting him on his blog by listing the many people that must be involved in his conspiracy by now – including John Howard for stopping Rofe’s report from being tabled. It was amusing watching him trying to answer that. Called me a grub, the silver tongued old darling.
“Howard opposed the superannuation reforms of Keating”
Apparently Howard’s opposition was quite bitter, a bit like his opposition to sanctions on apartheid South Africa.
No 907
But the fact is that there are thousands of Asians in Bennelong, and many were also appreciative of the PM at the Festival, and there were several also campaigning with us who were able to engage in bilingual conversation where appropriate.
Just because we’re all poll junkies doesn’t mean they are the be all and end all of the debate.
No 906
I have campaigned broadly around NSW. I’m not that narrow-minded to believe polls only.
Still no newspoll – should we expect it soon, or can I go to bed now?
882 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 12:05 am
No. That’s what’s called a ‘subjective’ observation. Funny how most liberal party members fail to understand the difference.
Why Howard can’t win
There were studies carried out in the United states which analysed the commentary style of candidates for each of the US presidential elections over the last fifty years or so.
They analysed all forms of media commentary and gave it a scaling in regard to positivity and negativity. On analysing the comments of presidential candidate prior and during the electoral campaign it was very predictive of their chance of winnning. positivity and optimisim were key. The candidates who were more positive ended up winning. I believe Rudd is winning on this aspect of the campaign and it is one of the reasons he is leading in the polls. Martin Seligman was the guy who carried out the study. Interesting reading.
[‘McKew in Bennelong is a two term strategy.’
Well, a two-month strategy if the ALP wins.]
RIGHT ON! 😛
[Howard will lose Bennelong and that will be sorry enough for Mr Bennelong. ]
Lefty E tells me that he is going to be Stanley Bruced.
[Howard opposed the superannuation reforms of Keating, one of the single biggest and most important social and economic reforms in Australia’s history, the funds from which have become a huge and growing source of investment capital.]
Well it is PURE SOCIALISM forcing people to save, and making employers contribute…
The fact all the money gets invested on the stock exchange is AS AUSTRALIANS WOULD SAY – “neither here nor there”.
It is interesting the shift in attitude at the Nine network. Since CVC Australia and it’s head, Adrian McKenzie took over, we are seeing a more even handed take on current affairs. I could never imagine Tracy Grimshaw embarrasing the Prime Minister like she did the other day if a Packer was running Nine. Good on Nine for using the worm and giving the two finger salute to the Liberal Party.
[Still no newspoll – should we expect it soon, or can I go to bed now?]
The Australian probalby won’t completely update their page until 1 AM EST. (2 AM in Tas)
Gp @ 911,
If that is true then you know the swing in NSW is about 8%. More than enough to take care of Howard eh!
Yes Im a little puzzled at the newspoll no-show. Maybe the ABC misreported it as a monday newspoll, but i doubt it. If it is out tomorrow, theyre keeping it close to their chests.
Bennelong is looking close, but as the campaign goes on and it looks more likely that labor will be swept in then Howard will also be swept aside in Bennelong.
The big negative against Howard in Bennelong are the Exclusive Brethren who run as his cheer squads at all his meetings. Can spot them a mile off even with out their pig face masks.
No 913
Bloody hell Pi, you’re more one-eyed than most around here.
She didn’t even have a stall from which to hand out material or campaign face-to-face.
#911 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 12:20 am
I don’t know… you believe a persons appearance to you personally amongst thousands (or lack there-of), spending time around people just like yourself, makes you objective.
I think you believe what you want to believe.
Apparently Howard’s opposition was quite bitter, a bit like his opposition to sanctions on apartheid South Africa.
And didn’t Howard do an about face on the use of sporting sanctions for political purposes and support them for Zimbabwe and cricket? The number of times this guy has changed horses at his convenience beggars belief. When he claimed during the debate that Rudd was a reponsibility avoider, while he (Howard) always took responsibillity and never passed the buck, my hypocrisy meter exploded.
Would only all media was non-partisan and let Austrlians decide. OR at least present equally quantities of opposing partisanship.
Thanks Shows On. Hope your right or it will be another pointless exercise in my otherwise meaningless existence.
Time to recall the classic line from Keating, on Howard hiding his true self through the 96 campaign, me-tooing on medicare etc
“When John Howard says, Im not John Howard, I’m a hedgehog, is he John Howard or is he a hedgehog? The Canberra press gallery says, No, no, he’s told us he’s not John Howard, he’s a hedgehog. So he’s a hedgehog. The fact is, Howard never changed, he was always the same suburban reactionary.”
[If that is true then you know the swing in NSW is about 8%. More than enough to take care of Howard eh!]
Wrong. GP took a survey at Liberal Party HQ and couldn’t find any indication of a swing to Labor at all. So that settles it. No swing to Rudd.
No 922
Just as you do, I wholeheartedly presume. Your rabid anti-Howardism is unmatched.
PS spare a thought for that poor bastard 3 years ago who brought out that book on Abbott and Latham “the two most promising pollies of their generation”!
Try the two greatest whackos.
No 927
I took no such survey. All I’m saying is that it will be a close contest and the wide poll gap is not reflective of the true situation. Stop clutching at straws.
Shows on at 686 says:
“Where the hell is the country headed when Liberal party hacks try to tell TV stations what they can and can’t broadcast?
Where the hell are these people from? Shouldn’t they be running a junta in Burma? Or public relations for North Korea?”
Absolutely. This stinks of political censorship.
I reckon this will be the real issue coming out of the debate: Which Lib pin-head tried to censor Channel 9 and whether he or she did it on the orders of someone else (and if so, who).
There’s questions to be answered boys and girls and I think we’re all entitled to answers.
# 928 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 12:26 am
There you go again… everyone that points to howards past actions (children overboard is a good one) suffers from ‘rabid anti-howardism’
My view of the world is balanced. I stand on the side that doesn’t demonize helpless people to achieve political ends. You clearly stand on the other side.
Paul k,
So it’s a big misunderstatement or something?
Generic Person
I have also done some grass roots campaigning in the area and I perceive a great deal of postive reaction to Maxine. The large influx of Korean migrants and the electoral boundary changes have put Howard under pressure.
Howard likes the money Asia brings in but he won’t embrace the idea of them being real Aussies. They love the money thats why they vote for him. They also love education so Rudd could still sway them.
The numbers don’t lie. The last poll I heard Maxine was still in front.
#928
Generic Person Says:
“Your rabid anti-Howardism is unmatched.”
Bugger that! I’ll match Pi’s rabid anti – howardism any day. His concession speech will be the political highlight of the year. I’ll be staying up for it AND stay sober (ish) till its done.
# 847 P Gardiner
Mate, go outside and punish yourself. You’re a complete knob and self opinionated tosser… with that much bile for a brain you have no right to be advising others.
Not sure about how the PBL management/ownership is structured these days, but has Nine Network’s hardball with the Libs got something to do with……
“PBL demerger hits tax-law hurdle”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pbl-demerger-hits-taxlaw-hurdle/2007/10/15/1192300686210.html
????????
GP at 927,
Relax. It was a joke. All I’m saying is that Maxine is giving Johnnie a run for his money and that’s all she’s expected to do. If she wins the seat, it’s a bonus. The Libs are spending more time and money in Bennelong than ever before and so Maxine is doing her job.
In regards to a general swing being on. If you can’t detect it, maybe that in part explains why you are behind in the polls.
I voted for Howard once or was that twice but also voted for Hawke and Keating. BUT can you imagine the revenge Howard will take on Australia if he wins this election? His bitterness and hatred will know no bounds. It will be pure revenge on any one who didn’t support him.
He will make it his single goal to ensure that it is impossible for there to be a competitive opposition party[aka Singapore], that was their plan anyway but he will be doubly spurred to make sure of it. And then? Australia in the grip of a hard right-wing party.
“WHich Lib pin-head tried to censor Channel 9 ”
Im sure Howard will take full responsibility, as he – apparently – “always does”.
Are we gonna hit 1000 comments? Is this a record?
GP, I have campaigned on the other side of the fence in Bennelong, your assertions are wrong. Many want Howard gone, and are enthusiastic about being given a high quality alternative. Maxine runs a very positive campaign, and is to be commended for staying positive in light of some of the less laudable actions of the Howard government. Honestly, I think the recent Bennelong polls truly reflect the mood in the parts of the electorate where I have travelled.
The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/bmichelle-grattanb/2007/10/21/1192940905647.html
[Thanks Shows On. Hope your right or it will be another pointless exercise in my otherwise meaningless existence.]
It actually makes more sense for Newspoll to come out on Tuesday. That would mean they could poll tonight and Monday regarding who people think won the debate.
But maybe they will do another poll about that for later in the week? It would make more sense to do it at the same time as the voting intention poll. It isn’t really worth doing it next week because the debate will be pretty much forgotten by then.
[Absolutely. This stinks of political censorship.
I reckon this will be the real issue coming out of the debate: Which Lib pin-head tried to censor Channel 9 and whether he or she did it on the orders of someone else (and if so, who).
There’s questions to be answered boys and girls and I think we’re all entitled to answers.]
Liberal party hacks Australia wide should be pissed that their party seems to have adopted a new media policy opposing liberty.
847 P Gardiner Says: October 21st, 2007 at 11:46 pm
Oh really? So who was finally to blame for using lies about people throwing their children overboard? Who was finally to blame for invading Iraq without the support of the UN, based upon information that we found was incorrect, and was known as incorrect, before the invasion? Who finally was to blame for our diplomats overseeing the transfer of payments of 300 million dollars to that very same regime?
Blame? You’re right about one thing… compared to Howard, Rudd is a child at that game…
[ Many want Howard gone ]
Tof K,
You’re wrong according to the Libs. Apparently the good people of Bennelong are real excited about Costello becoming PM and their having to go to a by-election. They can’t wait.
More details on Liberal Party hacks censoring Channel 9:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pesky-worm-gets-nine-into-strife/2007/10/21/1192940909198.html
“Mr Westacott said there had been no agreement on whether the worm could run with Channel Nine’s coverage. “I said we were interested in taking the debate and we will do with it what we will,” Mr Westacott said.
“This was somebody bowing to political pressure. I think it was a blatant act of censorship by the ABC and the Press Club.
“It’s not for the Press Club, the Liberal Party or anybody else to decide the editorial policy of the Nine Network.”
[I voted for Howard once or was that twice but also voted for Hawke and Keating. BUT can you imagine the revenge Howard will take on Australia if he wins this election?]
WorkChoices 2.0
Just another 52 comments
Lefty E,
Worm overboard………Huge scandal………..What did the PM know?………When did he know?……….Why was he at the Apple Festival?……Was he trying to intimidate worms.?….. And now the key worm for Australia’s future has been kidnapped in to cyberspace……… What would our forefathers think about this huge infringment on Democracy?