Open debate thread

A thread for you all to discuss the debate as it happens. If you don’t like the company round here, there’s a live chatroom at Larvatus Prodeo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,076 comments on “Open debate thread”

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  1. LOL. How convenient that people suddenly contrive their campaigning efforts in Bennelong as soon as I say the mood is still remarkably in favour of Howard. What a surprise.

    Try a different customer.

  5. Yes ShowsOn, it has merit to release it on tuesday, but such a poll would fail to take into full account the net benefits of the debate. I base my belief on the poll being released tonight on the word of the public broadcaster. My belief is waning by the minute, meh, nothing else to do, sleep just takes me to where I am already, politics. There has to be a cure, methinks a Rudd Labor government would do the trick, administer with pencil and paper, repeat every 3 years.

  6. Howard confirmed that he would stay on as leader of the opposition in the event of an election loss by refering to his ministers as shadow ministers during the election. Mr Costello was later heard to say …common Kevie obvioulsy fearful of the fact of another accusation of being a ‘low altitude flier’ as Turnbull, Abbott, Coonan and Pyne take turns at being leaders of the Opposition.

  9. Shows On #883
    & Fool @ #873

    “This has been comprehensively refuted by Peter Costello in the book John Winston Howard:”

    Also comprehensively refuted by Fraser.

  10. Here’s the full story on the pulling of Nine’s feed and the worm.

    {Channel Nine’s director of news and current Affairs, John Westacott, told The Age last night: “I think the National Press Club … pulled the Channel Nine feed and then pulled our back-up feed. We were forced to take Sky News feed off air, which we did for the last third of the debate.”

    The first call came from an ABC technician who said the feed was about to be cut because Channel Nine was running the worm. “Then there were calls from the Press Club. Then they pulled our feed.”

    Press Club chief executive Maurice Reilly said Channel Nine was offered the broadcast on certain conditions, which included no live worm.}

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pesky-worm-gets-nine-into-strife/2007/10/21/1192940909198.html

  12. [My belief is waning by the minute, meh, nothing else to do, sleep just takes me to where I am already, politics.]

    What better way for The Oz to take the gloss of Rudd’s debate win than by leading with a headline showing Howard clawing back a couple of percent?

    [common Kevie obvioulsy fearful of the fact of another accusation of being a ‘low altitude flier’ as Turnbull, Abbott, Coonan and Pyne take turns at being leaders of the Opposition.]

    Don’t worry about Pyne. With a bit of work my fellow Sturt voters will take care of him.

  14. GP, I am basing my assertions on the same empirical evidence as you, personal experience. I do not doubt your assertions, but I disagree on the general mood of the electorate based on my own campaign experience. There is no need to contrive anything.

  16. In the GG the worm story gets one article so far:

    “A spokesman from the Liberal Party said that Nine did not adhere to the agreed rules.

    “Nine breached the conditions of the broadcast (agreement),” the spokesman said.

    “It’s a matter for the National Press Club.” ”

    Now why wouldn’t the Liberal Party be denying all knowledge of this??

    Surely no-one connected with the Lib’s(and by extension part of Rattus’s Team) would have taken a decision to cut the feed to 9. It makes the Libs actions in avoiding scrutiny the story and not the debate. In fact its a lot better story than the debate since that pretty much went as expected with Rudd winning.

    Weird??

  18. Yes, I think there will be a Newspoll tomorrow, probably in the hope it could dampen the expected, and delivered, Rudd victory in the debate.

  20. [In the GG the worm story gets one article so far:

    “A spokesman from the Liberal Party said that Nine did not adhere to the agreed rules.

    “Nine breached the conditions of the broadcast (agreement),” the spokesman said.

    “It’s a matter for the National Press Club.” ”

    Now why wouldn’t the Liberal Party be denying all knowledge of this??

    Surely no-one connected with the Lib’s(and by extension part of Rattus’s Team) would have taken a decision to cut the feed to 9. It makes the Libs actions in avoiding scrutiny the story and not the debate. In fact its a lot better story than the debate since that pretty much went as expected with Rudd winning.

    Weird??]

    Don’t you understand, to use an AUSTRALIAN phrase, the worm was having TWO bob each way. It bobbed UP for Mr Rudd and bobbed DOWN for Mr Howard. There is no other explanation except that Kerry O’Brien was playing the part of the worm. O’Brien works for the ABC, and ergo, he is a biased communist.

    I rest my case Mr Speaker.

  21. Absolutely GG, incisive and, dare I say, Bernsteinian questions on Wormgate.

    I predict John “The buck stops here etc” Howard produces:

    a. A grainy videotape of the worm voluntarily accepting a relocation package for the evening, with no Liberal party inteference, and

    b. A sworn statement from the Head of the PMs department saying “We can confirm the PM knew nothing about any worm ejection plan. ” Followed 3 hours later by one stating

    c. “In light of recent developments, we can also confirm the PM did not read the documents entitled ‘Worm Ejection Plan: Attention PM “.

  22. “Yes, I think there will be a Newspoll tomorrow, probably in the hope it could dampen the expected, and delivered, Rudd victory in the debate.”

    Presuming that it shows a clear shift to the government…

  23. [ #965
    Crikey Whitey Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 12:44 am

    Say, William. Will there be a prize for the 1000nth post?]
    .
    .
    Yes, a glossy framed and signed photo of the Worm.

  24. @ 939 Kina Says:

    He will make it his single goal to ensure that it is impossible for there to be a competitive opposition party[aka Singapore], that was their plan anyway but he will be doubly spurred to make sure of it. And then? Australia in the grip of a hard right-wing party.

    I fear you might be correct. There is precious little protection under our much vaunted constitution for democratic freedoms – especially with the current lot of Justices most of whom are Howard appointees.

  26. Beginning to wonder if there’s a Newspoll here – Dennis’ piece on the debate is out on the GG web site- were there any good news in the poll numbers, surely he’d have headlined them in his column?

  28. No 974

    Why are you criticising the High Court? Because they actually interpret the constitution rather than invent non-existent clauses?

  29. “Howard will not lose Bennelong. McKew in Bennelong is a two term strategy.”

    Totally disagree.

    I think if Howard loses this election, he will lose his seat as well. The winds of change blow hard and unkindly.

    If he wins the election however he will definately retain his seat.

  30. Lefty E,

    Then the disinformation campaign begins……..Worms aren’t really good for your garden.Followed by a smear about if you cut them in half you end up with two separate worms…..Obviously Union vote rigging?…..

    Oh it is a sorry tale from here.

  31. Yes Noocat, that was the GG’s hope. Its a tantalising poll in the event of last weeks govt shift. It either confirms my worst fears, or its the sound of a dead cat hitting the ground again.

  32. I think our political culture and insitutions are strong enough to cope with a potential dictator. But Howard would love to do it if he could. then we would pay.

  33. # 978 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 12:52 am

    Why are you criticising the High Court? Because they actually interpret the constitution rather than invent non-existent clauses?

    Ah… to live in the black-and-white world of a liberal party members mind. Where everyone you know is good, and anyone that disagrees with you is evil. Where good christian folk can live in peace, and those nasty gay people (like justice kirby) can be appropriately vilified under parliamentary privilege.

  34. Re: Worm-Gate. How is the ABC implicated in pulling Ch Nines feed? Seems like an ABC technician alerted them. Was channel nine asked to remove the worm before their feed was pulled? Were any Trolls seen in the vicinity? These questions must be answered. I’m calling for a royal commission.

  35. 978: I don’t think that’s it – I just think most lawyers (who after all appear before it) think the HC isn’t as good as it was when Mason was CJ. True it is that the Court then took a broader view of its role, but with due respect to those there now, there isn’t perhaps the intellectual rigour there was before, nor is there ther emphasis on human rights like there was with Mason, Deane, Kirby, McHugh, Gaudron, Toohey et al.

  36. [Why are you criticising the High Court? Because they actually interpret the constitution rather than invent non-existent clauses?]

    This is #*@($ hilarious coming from a Liberal Party hack! Conservative high courts had such a narrow interpretation of the constitution that Australia was for 50 years a British satellite.

    It wasn’t until interpretation of the corporations power broadend that we became an indepdent nation, with an independent economic policy.

    It is that same interpretation that made WorkChoices possible, because it abolished the constitutional need for an arbitration comission (the IRC).

    If you are such a strict constitutionalist, you’d have to oppose WorkChoices.

  37. Crikey Whitey,

    Yeah, great, Crikey. Nothing like a robust debate to get the old engine fired up.

    Eyes are getting a bit sore though. Have read all posts so far.

  38. No. 983

    Being a student of the law, I don’t mind a lot of Kirby’s judgments. My comment was in response to the notion that Howard had stacked the court with conservatives. In the law, it is important to be conservative and cautious, rather than progressive and inventive.

  40. # 988 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 12:58 am

    Being a student of the law, I don’t mind a lot of Kirby’s judgments. My comment was in response to the notion that Howard had stacked the court with conservatives. In the law, it is important to be conservative and cautious, rather than progressive and inventive.

    So where does vilifying justices by liberal party ministers fit in there? Just not ‘conservative and cautious’ enough it would seem.

  42. Generic Liberal says:

    “I’m a member of the Liberal Party and we have 750 volunteers in Bennelong alone….”

    Hmmm. Each and every one a member of the EB, no doubt.

  43. Kevin Andrew’s has secret damning information on ‘the worm’ given to him by the liberal party branch of the DPP and, there are allegations that Ray Martin recently joined the Communist party and, also Heffernan said he had evidence about a railway stations and the worm and Martin. Milne & Ackerman research should confirm these allegations.

  44. [In the law, it is important to be conservative and cautious, rather than progressive and inventive.]

    I think you just accidently quoted John Howard explaining why we shouldn’t have Native Title. Or possibly Edmund Burke explaining why the French Revolution was bad.

  45. In relation to Bennalong, I think that if the polls continue to stay over 55% for the ALP, then the people of Bennalong are going to move towards Maxine just to save themselves the trouble of having to vote again so soon after the 24th Nov.

    I hope that damm News Poll comes out soon.

  46. [ 988Generic Person Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 12:58 am

    No. 983

    Being a student of the law]
    .
    .
    A man of many talents and yet he claims to be generic.

  48. Those posters who claim that the swinging voters out there would not watch the debate are undoubtedly correct, but fail to add an important point. All the political insiders were watching, and whether they will publicly admit it or not, they saw a massacre.

    Electorate workers toiling in marginal seats will be buoyed (ALP) or dismayed (Coal) and it will feed through into the work they do over the next 5 weeks.

    Candidates in those marginal seats will also be affected by the outcome and it will feed into their performances over the next five weeks. The aura of invincibility Howard once had among his supporters is now gone. He is looking increasingly flyblown. Isabella in one of her earlier posts claimed he was “pedestrian” on occasions. She is correct, but unfortunately that was during his better periods. At other times he was comatose.

    The result of the debate will have a lasting effect on the campaign. For Rudd to lose now will require a mistake of horrendous proportions. Nothing we have seen from suggests that such an error is likely.

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