Galaxy: 53-47

Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).

UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47”

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  1. Great work James. It would appear that Labor’s primary vote has come at the expense of other minor parties 4 points and 2 points from the Nationals when compared with 2004

  2. [ 60% for an Opposition Leader who’s been in the job for less than a year and has promised to cure all of society’s ills is unsurprising. ]

    Well then, I guess, there’s nothing to worry about then. Rudd will only win in a landslide but that’s “unsurprising”.

  3. ESJ @ 150

    I know this is a little old in the thread, but none-the-less you, as ever, spout unsubstantiated nonsense.

    Which ‘human wave’ attack repelled which forces?

    Calmly machine gunned by your own mis-use of history?

    Like so many of your ilk you rely on the ignorance of others to support your own distortions.

    BB

    PS for those of you in doubt ask ESJ who initiated the Iran-Iraq war and who won it

  5. Don’t forget to tune into Sky News for those who have it, today at 4:15. They are having a debate between the candidates in North Sydney ;-). Will just *love* to see Bailey tear Hockey apart ;-).

  6. It’s normal that the “don’t knows” in opinion polls before the election will include a disproprotionate number of disappointed, but government-inclined, voters.

    Usually, unless the government is really on the nose, they head back to the government during the campaign.

    If this theory is right, the polls in the past few days will be showing a fall in the percentage of don’t knows. I haven’t seen the don’t know figures, and unfortunately the newspapers have an interest of pro-rating the don’t knows away in the interest of having a more clear-cut story.

  8. Given that at the last election Labor gained 37.6% of the primary vote and now sit 0n ~48% I would be very nervous if I was a Coalition member sitting on a 10% margin. 🙂

  9. Just had a quick look at Galaxy’s primary (45-43 to Labor) and AC Nielsen’s rural vote figures (45-44 to Labor). Remarkable how similar they are.

    Galaxy looks like it’s picking up more of the rural vote where Newspoll has consistently been showing Labor is tracking about 5%-7% less than in the cities. It would say that, considering has anyone seen how many rural seats are held by Lib/Nats?

    It’s very interesting that the AC Nielsen primary figures overall have both moved upwards for the majors (while the Greens is down 2%). While all of that is just in MOE it looks like Galaxy is picking up that Howard’s tax cuts + the i’ve just started paying attention vote have kicked in in the bush, while Labor’s we might wait to see if they want services tactic is playing better in the cities. Wait and see means we’re not actually doing anything at the minute so it means Libs should at least get the 2% bounce from having their issues being discussed.

    Does anyone know how Galaxy conducts these polls and whether there’s much sampling difference to Newspoll etc?

  10. The 52% approval for Howard must send shivers down any ALP’ers spine. For someone to be in power that long and have introduced that many unpopular reforms and still be that popular is quite amazing indeed.

  11. The polls are getting closer, the latest Galaxy Poll has Coalition on 43% in the primaries and 47% in the two party. I think the Coalition will win a narrow majority with 43-44% of the primaries, vs say 40-41% for Labor. That is only 2-3% more than at the last election, the effect of workchoices, plus Latham not being Labor leader.

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