Galaxy: 53-47

Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).

UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47”

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  1. paul k #206

    Last comment on this topic before everyone turns to the neilson poll.

    I didnt compare the two I simply said it was a mistake to underestimate Patton. I liked Ike as a military leader just not as a President. note: Patton liberated much more than one city.

  2. ppm now only 47-43. KR’s approval down 5 points to 60. JH’s up.

    Good news on primary vote – up to 48, but libs up to 42. Is there something wrong with the preference distribution here?

    Any news on sample size and MOE?

  3. ” About six in 10 people also believed Australia needed new leadership, and that Mr Howard had lost touch with working families. ”

    Six in ten is more than enough to win the election.

  4. I remember Kim Beazley saying that he feared for Labor’s long-term survival if it loses this election. A Labor loss would see WorkChoices cemented in place, and unions weakened to such an extent that the funding they pass onto Labor drastically cut. With the party’s funding base mortally wounded, the party’s viability would be in jeopardy.

    So we might be headed for the one-party scenario sooner or later, whatever happens. Labor wins = Liberals curl up and die. Liberals win, Labor fades away.

  5. “The fact is, when you look at spending on Medicare which has trebled in the last decade, as well as social security, this government is far from right wing extreme libertarian a la Milton Freedman. ”

    Yes, that’s because John likes being in power.

  6. This from the Newspoll on Braddon:

    The Liberal primary vote in Braddon is 46 per cent, slightly below its 2004 result of 47.4 per cent, while Labor has improved marginally from 43 per cent in 2004 to 45 per cent. Labor 51:492PP

    Any comments Mr Possum?

  7. Steven’s back when he thinks the going is good. Front runner Steven? Where have you been? He really doesn’t understand that both polls still predict a thrashing.

  8. #207

    Hewson is (was) pretty far to the right himself, at least economically. Fightback! – is the blueprint Howard has followed, albeit incrementally. Perhaps Hewson is more moderate socially? I do know he was associated with the GetUp campaign, a fact I always found intriguing.

  9. Delroy. WTPS.

    Melbourne Age.

    Rudd preferred PM.

    TPP. 8 points the difference.

    Separate question. 8% only indicated vote influenced by tax breaks.

    Australian.

    Coalition ‘close to holding Braddon’, defying. Per Newspoll, marginals Tasmania.

    Yeah, right.

  10. With Labor’s primary vote up to 48%, Rudd’s approval still at 60%, and the the TPP 54-46, Rudd and Labor have survived the initial firestorm.

  11. So it appears the calling of the election has caused people to line up in their respective camps – but none jumped from Labor to Liberal!

    But some jumped from the Greens to Labor and some to the LNP? Does that mean Howard has a little bit of soft vote?

    The drop in Rudd’s approval rating was probably partially due to McLelland’s moronic timing along with Howard looking Priminsterial calling the election and having a big tax cut.

    I believe Gerard Henderson said the same thing that night – that the Liberal party was already hard right.

  12. I think that people can still be swayed. The average of the two polls is 53.5 – 47.5. They have moved from 56-44 so there may be a stiring.

  13. I like this bit re Kennett.

    [And more gloss from his tax cut promises was wiped away with an attack by former Victorian Liberal premier Jeff Kennett, who urged Mr Rudd not to match them, but instead to invest more money in health, education and water projects.]

    I wonder if Howard is secretly humming the Scared Weird Little Guys signature Tune “Bloody Jeff”?

  14. Good, Frank Calabrese. Nice that you happened to post just after John of Melbourne. Must have forgotten himself over Kennett.

  15. I wonder if that 8% still swinging contain some Greens that went to the LNP. It must have. They only need to move back to the Greens.

    So Rudd was right to keep his Tax policy for the right time – he can now utilise it for a number of things.

  16. I’d agree that Rudd has not had a stellar week, however these numbers are therefore good for what would be considered a relatively ho-hum performance after the starting pistol fired. Rudd is still comfy Uncle Kev, and Howard is still grumpy grampa sitting in his rocker telling the kids to get off his lawn.

  17. [ Jeff should have joined the ALP a long time ago ]

    The Libs have gone so far to the right they see anyone who is to the left of Attila the Hun as being a Labor Party supporter.

  18. ~vaio #231 – in spite of Rudd’s “poor week”, Labor’s primary still increased and 54-46 is still a very comfortable position. The next few polls’ trend will tell …

  19. The most impressive pictures all week are the pictures of people huging JWH. That sticks in peoples minds, people don’t hug you unless they like you it is a show of sincerity. I think that visual image will stick with many people.

  20. Labor is just dropping crumbs at the moment, the Liberal’s may have a 6 week strategy but I reckon Labor has a shorter campaign schedule.

    Now that the Libs have burst out of their corner with a hay maker and tripped over their own shoelaces I think the Labor party would be feeling more confident about how their campaign will go.

    34 Billion buys votes, there is no denying that. The rhetoric of people struggling in the mortgage belt etc. is based on a big nugget of truth and if a sniff of a few extra dollars in your pocket gives you hope that you’ll keep your house and keep your family together then you will take it.

    Once Labor offers their alternative then people can compare something with something which they can’t do at the moment. Support for Labor will then stabilise and/or return to normal I think.

    Fear not comrades. 🙂

  21. So we’ve got two polls each showing a slight shift – within the MOE but nevertheless probably genuine.

    Should be a good wake-up call to the ALP, who have definitely been coasting this week. I still expect that Rudd will come out of the campaign unscathed.

  22. Based on this ACN 90% of voters are locked in to the two major parties. What percentage of the remaining 10% can each party expect to win?

  23. Howard a grumpy grampa? That’s why the news bulletins over the last few days have been full of images of women hugging the PM. That’s why his Nielsen approval rating is an amazing 52%.

    By the way, kiddies, today’s Morgan is also going to show a swing towards the Government.

  24. It is no secret – the Liberal party has gone to the hard right and is in its firm grip. You will next see them pre-selecting Eternal Brethren as moderates.

  25. 48% ALP primary after a week of wedging and sledging from our odious, fear-mongering little PM.

    Thats all the news you need to know, folks! I’ll sleep well on that.

    Nite.

  26. [Howard a grumpy grampa? That’s why the news bulletins over the last few days have been full of images of women hugging the PM.]

    You’ll find that these “Women” are Party supporters as most photo ops are taken at Party functions, like Brough’s “Community BBQ”

  27. [Hard right ideology would certainly spell the end of health and social security funding. The reality is that both budgets have increased substantially.]

    Oh they’re already working on Social Security with the Welfare to Work policy.

  28. Medicare-The health system is a mess. It reminds me of my dads 1980 Statesman. It was the king of the road when it was released, and everyone turned to look at it. As time has gone on it has rusted, bits have fallen off, my dad has converted it to gas. It runs terribly but it’s still going. He should have traded it in for a new model, but he kept hold of it. It has a problem a week and continually costs money.
    No increased numbers of doctors, nurses, spending hospital boards will change the health system . The system is rubish, it needs an overhaul. Unfortunately it won’t win votes, so it will have to change when I am health minister.

  29. 255:

    “Howard’s approval rating is 52%, Rudd’s is 60%. Having trouble working out which is higher ”

    52% for a PM who’s been in the job for over 11 years is absolutely phenomenal. 60% for an Opposition Leader who’s been in the job for less than a year and has promised to cure all of society’s ills is unsurprising.

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