Galaxy: 53-47

Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).

UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:

Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47”

Comments Page 1 of 6
1 2 6
  1. These polls being out on friday already (especially being Nielsen and Galaxy) tells us that we’re probably going to get alot more polls this campaign than in previous elections. Good.

  2. According to the today’s poll 12 per cent of voters said the proposed $34 billion tax cut would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition, while 78 per cent said it would make no difference.

    Asked what they wanted the $34 billion future surpluses to be spent on 71 per cent nominated hospitals and schools, while 13 per cent said infrastructure.

    This suggests these numbers are not a reaction to Howard’s tax cuts. More likely a bounce due to increased Coalition momentum. Hopefully this will just make the ALP a bit more hungry.

  3. Nah, it’ll take more than that Edward. Mr. Rudd will win – just interesting to see these MSM machinations – 4% in one week? it’s bulldust.

  4. I second that John! I was just dreading the thought of seeing Labor’s lead expand despite what appeared to be a good week. Had that happened, I reckon the Coalition’s campaign would have collapsed.

  5. Why is labour being so bloody precious and apparantly civil in response to all the predictable crap that is spewing forth from the Coalition headkickers?

    Isnt it time to start throwing a bit back? I’d hate to think that this puncey “im above all this negativity” attitidue from Kev07 will somehow start to legitimise by default all the bile coming from Abbot, Hockey, Costello and co.

    If it really is now 53-47, which on face value is a turnaround of 5-6 points from prior average 2PP, shoudn’t that be a signal that the Labout party should need to get back on the front foot a bit.

    Why is it not de riguer to ever publicity mention Howards 22% interest rate in 1979-80? Why no mention of Tony Abbots stint as a union strike orgsniser for the AJA, or Nelsons and Costello’s links with Labour politics in their student days when they talk this nonsense about Gillard’s past leftist associations?

    When Howards crows about his ‘team;, why no mention from Labor of the fact that Howard didn’t even consult his own minister when he announced his faux redemption on reconsilidation last week, or that fact that his $3B water plan earlier this year enver even went to Cabinet?.

    I find this this small target nice guy approach from Labor v frustrating.

  6. The punters, they ‘loathe Johnny’ but just want the cash.
    When the Labor party starts is ‘responsible splurging and largess’ – guess what it’ll be back to 56:44. All this has done is flush out the low lying Lib supporters.

  7. Hopefully this gives the ALP the much needed kick in the pants they need. A terrible campaign so far.

    The positive side of this is that since the campaign has been so terrible for the ALP so far they have a good chance of holding this 53%. I certainly find it hard to imagine they can campaign any worse.

  8. Ahhhh the narrowing, that holy experience that many anticipate but few experience

    sample size of 800 people only for Galaxy, a bit small for the normal level of confidence methinks.

    Neilson is usually 1400

  9. Seems to be contradictory to the ACNeilsen rumour…but that’s polling.

    It’s probably within the MOE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a real movement….the week has pretty much been lots of press for the Coalition and a $34 billion tax cut versus nothing.

    The real story will be any further movement that occurs once Labor gets some big policies out there.

  10. The Coalition have looked on the offensive all week and Labor looking weak with no announcement on tax and bad publicity with the Nurses dispute in Victoria. As Rudd always said let’s not undersestimate Howard’s campaign skills

  11. The big movement towards the Coalition will be when the Coalition announces their health and housing affordability policies.

  12. Jeez – a News Ltd poll and people give it credence and think that the ALP pays attention to it. You don’t think that the ALP is doing a lot of polling of its own that will give them the real story that will shape the campaign? The usual Lib suspects here are grasping at anything that looks like a straw to keep them in the contest. They are dead meat and we all know it.

  13. Looks like beginning of the end for Kevin ’07.
    Admittedly it would have been a shock if the polls did not narrow – there’s that word again – after a week in which the libs overwhelmingly dominated the agenda.
    May be the timid supporters of the coalition could you make The Australian/Coredata map look a little more likely and a little less like a prop from the Red Menace campaign.
    On the night, I still expect at least a 50.1/49.9 to the Coalition, 8 seats majority.

  14. no more queensbury rules – i have a theory that Labor might have had a 33 day campaign well planned and didn’t want to pad it out this far. Plus they were so far ahead that they didn’t need or want to jump at provocations. Tactics might change next week I think.

  15. Melbourne news shows are running hard on the ex ALP member for Corio standing as an independant

    Channel nine even went so far as to call it ” a blow to Kevin Rudd’s chance of becoming Prime Minister”

    I’m loving this week…..but even so, its a bit much to expect an indie to win Corio

  16. What the Libs did to Labor on Monday reminds me of what the late Kerry Packer did to networks 7 and 10 for the AFL TV rights on Christman eve 2005.
    It seems like Labor have no choice, but to match the tax cuts.

  17. If the polls are narrowing that much, why was Howard today campaigning in Longman, a seat with a supposedly strong enough margin for Mal Brough? Pay attention each day to where the two leaders are going, that’ll tell you a lot about their internal polling.

  18. Oh dear!

    53-47 means *only* a 1996 John Howard-style landslide instead of 1975 Fraser one.

    I think most people who want a change of government will “settle” for that margin.

  19. Certainly a positive sign for the government, but don’t forget that we had a Galaxy 53-47 poll back in June.

    I suspect there’s a bit of narrowing happening on the basis of Labor being pretty quiet on the policy front over the past couple of weeks, while Howard has been in the headlines.

    It could just as well be a statistical blip though — there’s no way of knowing until we see the next couple of polls.

    Either way, it’s time for the unions to fire up their workchoices ads… they’ve kept them in the closet for far too long, and are in danger of leaving them too late in the game.

  20. Ashley yes I am surprised the Unions haven’t brought out their WorkChoices ads.

    I think the Coalition will be able to counter them though as a result of Mr. Brumby using them against the Nurses. The headline will read how can you be against them but then utilising them at the same time? Speaks of Hypocrisy

  21. Surely the Liberals don’t think they’ve got a prayer of winning Griffith?
    Probably more getting back at Labor for daring to target Bennelong.
    A lot of pessimism here tonight, on the basis of one Galaxy poll.
    Still a long way to go folks: don’t feed the Liberal trolls!

  22. Rudd is still the preferred PM by some margin. This would have to be a worry for the PM because at the end of the day, a lot of people vote purely on the ‘vibe’ of their preferred candidate. Even though this poll narrows the primaries and the 2PP, that preferred PM measure ain’t budgin’. Yet.

  23. Considering the sampling days were Tuesday and Wednesday, this is not so surprising. The tax line was very attention-getting. But things will probably be different when the dust settles: Labor’s policy will have its appeal as well and other factors will start to impinge on sentiment. but it shows what everyone must be feeling: Howard’s not going without a fight.

  24. Yes ND, the Liberal Party will need to work hard to change people’s wishes to see Rudd as PM by the end of the year. That’s why we’ve got the L plate ads.

    However, note that Keating lost in ’96 as preferred PM. If the ALP get their act together they should at least come close.

  25. Morgan’s website gives some MOE numbers, but only goes as low as 1,000.

    Have to admit, as much as I like the result, 800 is a bit low

  26. The other thing I’ve been wondering is… why are the unions just sitting there and copping it?

    The Libs have been on the attack for a couple of months now, painting the unions as bogeymen and thugs.

    Where are the positive images of unions? They should not only be splashing anti-workchoices ads across our screens, they should also be promoting themselves as being positive.

    I’d hate to look back after the election and think, gee, the Liberals just turned their 2004 interest rate campaign into a 2007 anti-union campaign and got away with it again.

    If we learnt anything from 2004 it’s this: don’t just sit there and cop it!!

  27. Wait for ACN and then see. This is a small sample. But don’t be surprised either. I have said for months Howard has a lot of money and the Australian people are easily bought.

  28. Actually if this poll gives the Libs better odds with the betting agencies in the next few days it may be a good chance to put down some money on Labor before the odds move back again.

  29. I would bring Combet and Shorten out in some ads and say, look what these guys have done for the people of Australia. Get the Beaconsfield guys and Bernie Banton to do an ad supporting the unions.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 6
1 2 6