D-day minus 39

• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.

• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.

• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.

• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

648 comments on “D-day minus 39”

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  10. The irony: if Labor loses this election, it will because the arrogance of Rudd will have turned people off. It would be so sweet to see him get pipped at the post – would probably knock a few cocky people here as well 😉 But I digress.

    This campaign has become very, very interesting. Day’s one & two went to the libs, and suddenly Rudd is stuck sounding like a broken record. It isn’t so easy to be a WonderKid once people start scrutinising you.

    Interestingly, it seems Rudd has been trapped over tax rates. If he offers less cuts then the libs, he will take a hit for ‘not being in touch’ and so forth and so on. If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite. If he offers more then he will be labeled as reckless and irresponsible. If he offers nothing…well, I think we can all use our imaginations. Should be an interesting 6 weeks, I’m actually starting to enjoy it. Pity Mr X isn’t gaining traction yet, but time is still available.

    I saw somebody mention a ’tiser article earlier. I didn’t think it was possible – but it’s election year coverage is actually getting worse. It devoted an entire story & half a page on how the tax policy didn’t change the votes of four voters AT THE PUB – two of which were already liberal supporters, and one whom said “anything John Howard does is wrong, everything anyone else does is probably right.”

    Groundbreaking Election Coverage. But wait, there is more:

    The Tiser Day Two Analysis

    HOWARD – 9/10

    RUDD – 4/10

    So there you go. Kenny Has Spoken. Stay tuned for further insightful analysis.

  12. Max says:
    “If Labor loses this election, it will because the arrogance of Rudd will have turned people off. It would be so sweet to see him get pipped at the post – would probably knock a few cocky people here as well But I digress.”

    I’d agree with this. 40 days of Kevin Rudd on tv all day and night may be the best thing to happen for the Liberal Party. I’d put it further and suggest all the ‘letter to the editor’ writers who have lately been crowing about Howard’s inevitable demise are just tempting people to vote for him. I’ve heard numerous people say… Rudd is getting cocky… I might vote for Howard.

    I think Labor would do well to keep re-enforcing the idea that they have a hard task ahead of them, the Coalition still are more likely than not to be re-elected and that every vote will be important at this election.

  13. Glad to see you in a cheery mood, Max.

    “If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite.”

    What is your evidence for this, other than wishful thinking? The ‘me-tooism’ angle has been running for months, to no effect so far.

    Noon ABC ran with ALP land release policies. Only mention of tax cuts was Costello sounding silly saying Rudd must release his today.

  14. Viewed purely as a matter of politics, the tax cuts are intended as a circuit-breaker, to get the punters to refocus from Rudd and all the bad news for the Coalition over the last few months, onto the essential equation that all conservative parties rely on, namely Liberal = more money for the property-owning class. If it works, we will see The Narrowing begin in the coming set of polls. That will mean that the Libs have some hope, although they will have to sustain this momentum for six weeks, and bearing in mind that Labor haven’t really opened their campaign yet. If The Narrowing does not occur over the next week, they really are doomed, because this is by far the biggest shot they have in their locker.

  15. If 40 days and nights of Kevin Rudd will annoy people, I feel pretty confident that 40 days of John Howard will make annoy them even more.

    Watching ACA last night is a typical example. The pop quiz asked at the end of the interview to both Howard/Rudd typified this. Howard very solemnly answered the questions and looked uncomfortable, and then made his interest rate gaffe. On the other hand, Kevin Rudd initially responded to the interviewer with “Oh, now you’ve got me worried” and a polite smile.

    People like this from politicians, it makes them appear more normal. Poor old John doesn’t really smile very much anymore. He just looks grumpy.

  16. Sean the westies on line is running big headlines about the inflationary effect of the tax cuts, in fact they seem to have only one item complimentry to the coalition, surprise, surprise!

  17. Interestingly, it seems Rudd has been trapped over tax rates. If he offers less cuts then the libs, he will take a hit for ‘not being in touch’ and so forth and so on.

    If he maintains the tax cuts for the lower and medium income thresholds, but removes the tax cuts for the upper income thresholds, I think he will be fine. I don’t think removing the higher tax threshold cuts would trigger many ‘not being in touch’ calls (except from people who wouldn’t vote for the ALP anyway) – higher income earners will get the benefits of the lower and medium income threshold cuts regardless. If you diverted the money saved into spending on services, it would be a nice little package the ALP can spin.

  20. So Max says that 40 days of having to look at Rudd will put people off.

    Really? I reckon it won’t hold a torch to the 4000+ days people have had to put-up with Howard’s mug leering at them from every TV in the land.

    If familiarity breeds contempt, the Lib’s present position in th polls is no surprise.

  21. If Liberals have given away big tax cuts now- what are they going to do for the next 39 days? And how can a 51:49 2pp spell trouble for Labour in QLD? It will be interesting to see the next opinion poll. If there is no movement in the 2pp from say 56:44 +/- 2, then it’s all over red rover”
    When…
    Lose the election please Says:
    October 16th, 2007 at 5:32 am
    Still have no reason to update my prediction of Coalition 5-7 seat majority. Another 39 days? Why won’t this nightmare just end?
    It’s a big contradiction but the nightmare will end on Nov 24th but with a 30 seat majoruty to labour

  23. “You talk about a whole lot of things when you’re trying to convince people to do things, but you don’t go back and honour every single one of those unless you have made a firm commitment about it and John wasn’t into making firm commitments.”

    Labor should use this.

  24. How realistic is the on-line poll re: primary vote by Coredata in the Gov Gazette…has anyone looked at the Pendulum? It is good for a laugh. Can these types of polls be at all believed? It is not possible to vote twice using the same computer I know that, but it doesn’t stop people using one at work then one at home perhaps????

  25. The tax policy from Howard is a ‘all in’ strategy. He needs his tax plan to put the polls onto a more equal footing in for the rest of the campaign to have any hope of winning.

    If the polls don’t move or move towards Labor Howard cannot have anything really major left to top the billions of dollars of tax cuts, its this gambit that is going to determine the election for Howard.

    Labor on the other hand are 12 points up in the polls, they are going to be doing things on their own timetable, at least for the next few weeks

  26. Rudd went to a State school – I wonder how many of Howard’s lot could say the same?

    Bonsai himself attended Canterbury Boys High.

  27. Hi Judy

    Pardon the ignorance but whats the ‘westies’. Do you mean “the west australian’? Thats encouraging if thats the case. The GG is shocking and really gives labor a taste of what its in for. The Sydney Morning Herald is not a whole lot better. On line though the punters are really giving the OZs coverage a hammering.

  28. Pancho@73
    thank you for info

    Adam@80
    Sean@81
    agreeing with your posts. I do recall Rupe’s ‘The Sun’ in UK influencing voters once he got behind Maggie T.
    Of most concern is the obscene amounts of money, the taxpayers have been pouring into The Murkers coffers – courtesy of J-Ho & Co, is this payback time? If so, how do we counter this?

  29. Socrates #32 – a history lesson.

    The only Australian Prime Minister to be educated entirely by state schools (primary and secondary) is …

    John Winston Howard.

  30. 110 Max Says:

    This campaign has become very, very interesting. Day’s one & two went to the libs, and suddenly Rudd is stuck sounding like a broken record

    And here’s me thinking the last poll had the ALP on a 12 point margin.

    You know… just saying something doesn’t make it true. Or haven’t you figured that out?

  31. [If 40 days and nights of Kevin Rudd will annoy people, I feel pretty confident that 40 days of John Howard will make annoy them even more.]

    True. In fact, some people right now are probably saying “Wow, is that John Howard guy STILL prime minister!”

  32. There are only 2 things in this campaign that are real; they are the policy announcements by each side and the polls. We have had only 1 policy announcement by Liberal about tax and no polls, all the rest is just spin. In light of this, what do you think of Julia Gillard’s hair lately? It looks great. So it is important to date someone who knows hair care products. A positive in my opinion

  33. The problem with Max’s view re Rudd is that he’s implicitly suggesting that Howard is the sort of guy that the punters would like to hang out with. I suspect Max might be the sort of guy who stands in the corner at parties

  34. # 124 – sean, at least the SMH online still has a link to Howard’s gaffe on ACA…which the GG has assiduously avoided all day.

  35. just a little point

    money,power etc as drivers are well and good but what is happening here in oz is pure time lag stuff
    most countries gvts are assesing their “value add”role
    consequently and with ref to the uk us etc
    we are seeing a generational/perspective shift

    the mass of people want the core services and values that unfortunatelly disintegrated under Howards regime

    simple

    ps good idea not to critique lib print media-gives em ideas

  36. Mr. Rudd should lower company tax rates to 27.5% for small business (say under 50 employees). In part, as compensation for the unfair dismissal stuff. In part, it might swing small business/families to Labor or at least partly nullify the anger. Wrong foot the coalition. It’d be an incentive for business’ to grow and underline Labor as pro-business. Further, it would highlight and underline Labor as the new party of the middle. Ties in to his re-building the nation agenda.

    Labor shouldn’t be tempted to configure their tax cuts in the same way that the Howard government has its’ cuts arranged. Howard is there for the big headlines and that’s all his tax cuts are aimed at achieving… big headlines in the first week. Targetted tax cuts – can be used to stimulate growth without being inflationary.

    The only thing that surprises me about Howard’s cuts is that they did it from the election campaign. I thought they’d go back to parliament – lock them in and then dare Rudd to take the money away. I guess they thought it would make a bigger impact in Day 1 of the campaign proper.

  37. [# 124 – sean, at least the SMH online still has a link to Howard’s gaffe on ACA…which the GG has assiduously avoided all day.]

    It was on their front page late last night. I see no reason why they took it down. Other than tha tax policy, it was the major event of yesterday.

  38. {It is not possible to vote twice using the same computer I know that,}

    Ally B, you can’t have been taking much notice of the numerous posters outlining just how easy it is to multiple vote.

    See my post @ 88 and the earlier one.

  40. [Mr. Rudd should lower company tax rates to 27.5% for small business (say under 50 employees). In part, as compensation for the unfair dismissal stuff. In part, it might swing small business/families to Labor or at least partly nullify the anger. ]

    I think it is a bad idea increasing the gap between the business tax rate, and the top personal income tax rate. This just encourages more rich people to set up sham companies as a way of avoiding paying income tax, by converting it to business tax.

    I think Rudd’s tax plan will focus on people who earn up to $70,000 a year. It will give those people bigger tax cuts that kick in sooner, at the expense of tax cuts for people who earn over $70,000 p.a.

    The thing is this. Now that the government has promised $34 billion in 3 years of tax cuts. Labor can cut taxes, or spend up to that amount. The government has given away what the upper spending limit is, while still keeping the budget in surplus by 1% of GDP.

  41. Max – 110 You obviously don’t keep up with economic debate in Australia. The proposed tax cuts (repeat ‘proposed’) are just what most economic commentators have been suggesting for years! So there is nothing innovative about the Libs announcement, just a desperate attempt to get in the game.

  42. I wonder how expensive it would be to eliminate the top income tax bracket all together (and then lower the second highest one to around 35%). That would create major headlines and would put business more onside with Rudd. Don’t know if it makes political or economic sense tho…

  43. John Rocket Says: @ 136

    { In part, it might swing small business/families to Labor or at least partly nullify the anger. }

    John, the number of possible swinging voters in small business is infinitesimal.

    The total number of possibles that Labor could get Australia wide combined, would not be enough to make a difference in one, single, marginal seat.

  44. Rich ppl don’t need encouragement to set up sham companies or minimise tax – don’t worry, they’ve all got them set up, just fine, right now!

    Nah, it’s more about the symbolism of the move. It would cut through a lot of the attacks the government have – the whole ‘Labor is anti-business/ pro-union’ thing they’ve got going.

    Something like this would be a bit more imaginative that just the bucket loads of cash for _everyone_ imagery the Coalition so love! (They should get the same company that does the Lotto ads to do their election ads. I can just see Mr. Howard on top of that semi-trailer full of cash, with a shovel, and with the battlers leaping and yelling below!)

  45. John C, sorry my error on Howard. The general point on his collective Cabinet still seems valid though, where I think the Elitist label fits well.

    As for the tax cuts, one thing it does highlight to me – if they are really going to give back all the surplus with large tax cuts, George Bush style, then they obviously have no intention of making any significant change to public spending on health and education. Let alone infrastructure or climate change.

  46. I would say if the polls go backwards in the next week or dont get under 552PP by 10 November you can pronounce the death of JWH. If JWH is going to win it will be a sneak from behind win in the last 2 weeks -hence “The narrowing” will only start late in the piece.

    I think there are positive impressions of KR out there but they havent crystallised. I suspect the Liberals are hoping for a birthday cake moment to crystallise some negative tag on KR. The negative ads will also take some time to drive up his negatives from 24%, I believe his negatives will be at least 35% by the time the campaign ends, win lose or draw.

    The real issue with tax for Labor is that they havent thought through what they believe. If you are a me too conservative party then you dont think people earning in excess of $70K per annum are rich, but as Marky Marky pointed out if you accept these parameters on tax you accept a conservative position or approach to government. It appears Labor has decided in opposition it cannot make the case against middle class welfare.

    I suspect KR will try to have his cake and eat it too – broadly the same as JWH with a few tweaks here and there.

  48. I suspect that Labor will pump out large tax cuts similar to the Coalition. I’d like to see something dramatically different done with the money… image what the hospital system would look like if 34 billion was spent on health instead? Boy would that grab some headlines too.

    But sadly I think it will be more tax cuts instead, presented in a different way. I think they’ll undercut the libs though in order to underline their “fiscal prudence”.

    I think the boldest solution for Labor would be to spend only about half of the 34 billion on tax cuts and use the rest to making some impressive changes to health and education. That would show the libs as being financially irresponsible and emphasize that Labor has a plan and has its priorities right. I doubt it will happen, but it would be awesome to see Rudd stand up and show some leadership on this. After all, if he wins he’s the one who’s going to have to cop interest rate rises.

  49. Post 138 Scorpio – No that is correct because I haven’t had time to be glued to my computer reading every post on this site – I come to it occasionally …..can you indicate where to find these posts (ie about what time were they being discussed) and I will have a read. Thanks

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